Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
Wally, great work.

Why is Milliken no longer discussed after round 2?  It would seem to me based on the criteria you provided they had a better profile then Frostburg St. selected in round 4.

Or did other factors like third team from CCIW come into play?

And is SOS really that important of a criteria historically?  Maybe I misread your post, but it seems to be the trump card even over RRO results.
They do seem to have the edge on Frostburg. My guess is that because IWU and Millikin still have to play each other in the season finale, only one will be in the conversation so in trying to predict the where the potential bubble line might be this far from the end of the season it doesn't make sense to have both teams in.
And they're not really blocking anyone from the North region. Unless Trine or Witt get upset and fall into pool C, the only 1 loss teams would be IWU/Millikin and possibly DePauw with Wheaton likely being the best 2 loss option.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

tf37

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 27, 2017, 01:51:53 AM
Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
Wally, great work.

Why is Milliken no longer discussed after round 2?  It would seem to me based on the criteria you provided they had a better profile then Frostburg St. selected in round 4.

Or did other factors like third team from CCIW come into play?

And is SOS really that important of a criteria historically?  Maybe I misread your post, but it seems to be the trump card even over RRO results.
They do seem to have the edge on Frostburg. My guess is that because IWU and Millikin still have to play each other in the season finale, only one will be in the conversation so in trying to predict the where the potential bubble line might be this far from the end of the season it doesn't make sense to have both teams in.
And they're not really blocking anyone from the North region. Unless Trine or Witt get upset and fall into pool C, the only 1 loss teams would be IWU/Millikin and possibly DePauw with Wheaton likely being the best 2 loss option.

Thanks FCGrizzliesGrad.

But doesn't that defeat the purpose of looking at current info?  The 2nd place MIAC team (barring major upsets) is going to have a better profile as well after CM and St. John's play regardless of who wins.

And I agree that Wheaton is probably the strongest 2 loss team in the North no matter how the CCIW plays out.

wally_wabash

Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
Wally, great work.

Why is Milliken no longer discussed after round 2?  It would seem to me based on the criteria you provided they had a better profile then Frostburg St. selected in round 4.

You're right that Millikin is probably closer to the rest of the teams on the board than I've indicated.  I think there are a couple of separators here for me:
- Frostburg will have been in play since Round 1.  As silly as it sounds, the longer a team sits around on the board, the more vote capital they accrue.  Just by the mechanics of the voting process, Millikin is disadvantaged here slightly. 
- Looking at "results" vs. ranked opponents, it's not just Millikin's loss against North Central, it's 51-21 that's doing them no favors.  They're the only team on this board that is carrying a defeat of that magnitude.  Frostburg is missing an RRO win, but their RRO loss is an OT game vs. Wesley, which looks a lot better.  I know I also said that I have a strong preference for RRO wins and I'm kind of going against the grain by picking Frostburg, but I'm pretty sure that's how that would play out.  If Millikin can get to the finish line at 9-1, the dynamic changes a bit. 

Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
Or did other factors like third team from CCIW come into play?

No.  We saw three teams from the WIAC go in last year, so it is possible, but very unlikely.  It isn't that the selectors (or me in this case) simply disqualified a team because there were already too many teams in from one region or one conference.  That shouldn't play into it. 

Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
And is SOS really that important of a criteria historically?  Maybe I misread your post, but it seems to be the trump card even over RRO results.

We've seen committees place heavy emphasis on win percentage despite SOS and RRO results and we've seen committees really reward teams with high SOS's and favorable RRO results.  It depends on the makeup of the committee, which changes each year.  I will say that I think we've seen a trend toward heavier weight being placed on SOS in the last few years, which does have some influence over how I pick teams.   

One more note on RROs and the CCIW in particular.  Right now, the NRFP has got five CCIW teams ranked in the top 10, which bloats IWU's profile and helps Millikin here as well.  When the dust settles, I think probably only three of these teams will wind up ranked and it'll thin things out a bit. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

If you are a Wheaton fan and clinging to the fading hopes of a spot in the playoffs you absolutely need a Carthage win over Millikin this weekend.

There are 2 scenarios where Wheaton could get in. The first is an AQ bid and that requires five 2 loss teams in a CCIW quagmire governed by the tie breaker rules. The second is for all the dominoes in the North to fall into place, followed by all the dominoes in the nation, to allow Wheaton to be the highest ranked team in the north with 2 losses and get to the table as early as possible.

For any of that to happen Carthage needs to beat Millikin this weekend. Wheaton can't afford to have two 9-1 teams (IWU and Millikin) playing each other in the final weekend because both of them beat Wheaton.

Wheaton needs Millikin to lose this weekend and beat IWU in the final weekend for the AQ (combined with Carthage beating NCC---hmmmm).

tf37

Quote from: USee on October 27, 2017, 09:40:21 AM
If you are a Wheaton fan and clinging to the fading hopes of a spot in the playoffs you absolutely need a Carthage win over Millikin this weekend.

There are 2 scenarios where Wheaton could get in. The first is an AQ bid and that requires five 2 loss teams in a CCIW quagmire governed by the tie breaker rules. The second is for all the dominoes in the North to fall into place, followed by all the dominoes in the nation, to allow Wheaton to be the highest ranked team in the north with 2 losses and get to the table as early as possible.

For any of that to happen Carthage needs to beat Millikin this weekend. Wheaton can't afford to have two 9-1 teams (IWU and Millikin) playing each other in the final weekend because both of them beat Wheaton.

Wheaton needs Millikin to lose this weekend and beat IWU in the final weekend for the AQ (combined with Carthage beating NCC---hmmmm).

USee,

One possible exception to your scenario is if Carthage beats NCC, then the IWU-Millikan game is for the AQ and the loser is tied with both Wheaton and NCC which makes Wheaton look a lot better given the Bell result (or results from wally's perspective).

And to wally's other point that could keep 4 CCIW teams in the RR and make things really interesting.

These last three weeks could be a fun ride for all involved.

tf37

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 27, 2017, 08:57:26 AM
Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
Wally, great work.

Why is Milliken no longer discussed after round 2?  It would seem to me based on the criteria you provided they had a better profile then Frostburg St. selected in round 4.

You're right that Millikin is probably closer to the rest of the teams on the board than I've indicated.  I think there are a couple of separators here for me:
- Frostburg will have been in play since Round 1.  As silly as it sounds, the longer a team sits around on the board, the more vote capital they accrue.  Just by the mechanics of the voting process, Millikin is disadvantaged here slightly. 
- Looking at "results" vs. ranked opponents, it's not just Millikin's loss against North Central, it's 51-21 that's doing them no favors.  They're the only team on this board that is carrying a defeat of that magnitude.  Frostburg is missing an RRO win, but their RRO loss is an OT game vs. Wesley, which looks a lot better.  I know I also said that I have a strong preference for RRO wins and I'm kind of going against the grain by picking Frostburg, but I'm pretty sure that's how that would play out.  If Millikin can get to the finish line at 9-1, the dynamic changes a bit. 

Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
Or did other factors like third team from CCIW come into play?

No.  We saw three teams from the WIAC go in last year, so it is possible, but very unlikely.  It isn't that the selectors (or me in this case) simply disqualified a team because there were already too many teams in from one region or one conference.  That shouldn't play into it. 

Quote from: tf37 on October 27, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
And is SOS really that important of a criteria historically?  Maybe I misread your post, but it seems to be the trump card even over RRO results.

We've seen committees place heavy emphasis on win percentage despite SOS and RRO results and we've seen committees really reward teams with high SOS's and favorable RRO results.  It depends on the makeup of the committee, which changes each year.  I will say that I think we've seen a trend toward heavier weight being placed on SOS in the last few years, which does have some influence over how I pick teams.   

One more note on RROs and the CCIW in particular.  Right now, the NRFP has got five CCIW teams ranked in the top 10, which bloats IWU's profile and helps Millikin here as well.  When the dust settles, I think probably only three of these teams will wind up ranked and it'll thin things out a bit.

Thanks Wally.

USee

Others may disagree but 3 two loss CCIW teams in Pool C consideration,  who all lost to each,  other probably makes the committee avoid that mess for other options IMO.

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on October 27, 2017, 10:04:51 AM
Others may disagree but 3 two loss CCIW teams in Pool C consideration,  who all lost to each,  other probably makes the committee avoid that mess for other options IMO.

I think a single-loss runner up from the NCAC would be ranked ahead of a trio of two-loss CCIW teams.  Maybe two-loss ONU would get ahead?  I'm looking at this now and, nevermind.  They wouldn't.  I don't know how ONU can get ahead of Heidelberg and I don't think Heidelberg needs to be ranked at all.  Couldn't be RHIT with their h2h result vs. Millikin.  Single-loss Trine might be ahead of the CCIWs. 

There really aren't a ton of viable options in the North region.  The regional committee is going to have to sort that business out one way or the other.  I hope they don't cop out with ties in the rankings! 

Moving up to the national picture, two losses is a tough thing to deal with right now.  There's some losing that needs to be done around the nation to get two-loss teams in play for Pool C. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Winners in bold.
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 12:15:11 PM
Key at-large games to watch for this weekend:
UW-Lax @ UW-Platteville
Wittenberg @ Wabash
WashU @ CWRU
Dubuque @ Wartburg
Johns Hopkins @ Muhlenberg
Salve Regina @ Western New England
Marietta @ Ohio Northern
Hendrix @ Trinity
Millikin @ Carthage
Monmouth @ Lake Forest
Cal Lutheran @ Chapman
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Mr. Ypsi

wally, as our current playoff guru, will UWO having to comeback to nip 2-6 UWRF by 3 mean they are no longer an absolute lock for a #1 seed (leaving UMHB and UMU as locks and a battle for TWO slots), or are they still a lock if they remain undefeated?

wally_wabash

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 28, 2017, 08:49:56 PM
wally, as our current playoff guru, will UWO having to comeback to nip 2-6 UWRF by 3 mean they are no longer an absolute lock for a #1 seed (leaving UMHB and UMU as locks and a battle for TWO slots), or are they still a lock if they remain undefeated?

No, they're a #1 as long as they finish undefeated.  Maybe the committee could have a micro discussion about it, but I think Oshkosh is locked in as a top seed if they run the table. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Toby Taff

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2017, 09:04:40 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 28, 2017, 08:49:56 PM
wally, as our current playoff guru, will UWO having to comeback to nip 2-6 UWRF by 3 mean they are no longer an absolute lock for a #1 seed (leaving UMHB and UMU as locks and a battle for TWO slots), or are they still a lock if they remain undefeated?

No, they're a #1 as long as they finish undefeated.  Maybe the committee could have a micro discussion about it, but I think Oshkosh is locked in as a top seed if they run the table.
doesnt last years results come in to play for seeding? i would think that would help lock it up.
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

jamtod

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 28, 2017, 09:04:40 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 28, 2017, 08:49:56 PM
wally, as our current playoff guru, will UWO having to comeback to nip 2-6 UWRF by 3 mean they are no longer an absolute lock for a #1 seed (leaving UMHB and UMU as locks and a battle for TWO slots), or are they still a lock if they remain undefeated?

No, they're a #1 as long as they finish undefeated.  Maybe the committee could have a micro discussion about it, but I think Oshkosh is locked in as a top seed if they run the table.

Agreed. UW-Platteville is on yhe outside looking in now though and I presume the St John's/Concordia winner takes that spot (if one takes your assumption that they were out). I think I agree with you now though that 4th 1 seed belongs to DelVal or Brockport or maybe even undefeated Wartburg?

smedindy

I think CWRU is breathing easier, as is the MIAC runner-up.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2017, 12:03:17 AM
I think CWRU is breathing easier, as is the MIAC runner-up.
MIAC #2 definitely. Should put them at the front of the line in the West.
I don't think Case is breathing too easy... not with their two hardest games of the season Westminster and Carnegie Mellon still to play. If I had to guess who will have their bubble popped the next two weeks I think they'd be at the top of my list.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem