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Messages - jknezek

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Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: Yesterday at 10:45:31 am »
Nice to see the board is back up again. Sadly the weekend weather is looking less than cooperative.

Friday high 40s/low50s degrees with a 70% chance of rain
Sunday 50s with a 60% chance of rain.

The temps are fine, that chance of rain though. Cold drizzle is less than optimal.

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 18, 2023, 04:33:56 pm »
Phenomenal no call by the ref at the end of the Tufts-WL game.   Tufts wanted a penalty and he sold it well, but on the replay he wasn't even touched.

Please get your eyes checked. I am not sure what game you were watching but that penalty was clear as day. I saw it live on the stream and rewatched it multiple times. He gets zero ball, if he had gotten any of the ball it would have changed direction. His cleat does not go under 11's leg, it goes right into him. Minute 3:17 of the game or 1:45:15 of youtube video, if you want to see it yourself.

I watched it more than a dozen times on YouTube but just can't get a clear frame of the defender touching the offensive player.

I definitely don't see him getting the front foot, it's very clear between 145:19-20 that the front foot is up and over the defender. There was no chance for contact on the front foot.

In that same time period the ball is past the defender's foot, so it's also clear to me he doesn't get the ball as I agree the trajectory doesn't change. I did get a frame on a lucky pause where the foot looks like it hits the ball, but the camera angle would lead to that conclusion as well, as would the Ref's positioning looking straight down the line at ball and defender's foot, so you'd have to go by trajectory from the angle and by how quick the ref makes the signal, I don't think he looked at where the ball went.

I can't tell if the defender touched the offensive player's back foot or not. There was no lucky pause that showed me that split second. A little before, a little after, nothing spot on despite multiple attempts. But the fall, which is essentially a face plant, is exactly what I'd expect to see if the back foot is touched while the body continues on. No coincidentally, it's also how I would sell a dive as an offensive player on that play.

Heck of a call not to make at that point in the game, heck of a call to make at that point of the game. If you aren't sure, you don't call it. It's also worth noting the assistant ref also makes no move with his flag like he's intending to call a foul. It stays completely down and he just continues on running with the ball as it is cleared. To be fair, the ref made the no-call motion really fast, so maybe the assistant would have had more reaction given a bit more time, but the ref was very definitive very quickly.

I'm not sure I'd describe a penalty as "clear as day", but even as a W&L fan, I'd say the video evidence points to the Generals getting a favorable call. On the balance, not touching the ball is kind of a key factor, even if I'm not positive there was player to player contact, though I'd say the evidence favors it.

Again, I suspect from the position of the ref, and the camera, with foot coming straight at the ball, it may have looked like the defender got it and the ref made his decision based on an angle that was imperfect.

Tough call in a split second.

Glad RMC won. More of a squeaker than I felt it should have been.

As for the Chesapeake Bowls, the ODAC teams laid an egg. W&L won everywhere but on the scoreboard, as an inability to convert decent drives to points did them in. A pair of fumbles gifted Lycoming short fields for 10 of their 20 points.

Wilkes rolled over Bridgewater. I don't know if the ODAC teams didn't take the games as seriously or if the Landmark teams, neither of which had great seasons, are just showing the ODAC still has a ways to go.

Either way, not a great look for the ODAC.

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 18, 2023, 03:10:02 pm »
Well I said heading in to the tournament W&L got a good draw with their home pod. I also said they hadn't beaten a solid top 25 team all season. Now they've beaten 2 in a row in regular time. This is Tufts 4th home loss since the start of the 2017 season. Any win on their turf is an excellent win. And can I just say it feels really good to eliminate a NESCAC team after being knocked out by NESCAC teams 2 of the last 3 tournaments?

The three tournament matchups are W&L's only 3 games against NESCAC opponents, not overly surprising as W&L was mostly absent from the national scene, except for a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2000, until Coach Singleton arrived. So I guess it's nice to break that ice as well, as shallow as it might be.

Congratulations Generals. I'll be driving tomorrow, but you better believe I'll be keeping an eye on the game. Probably make my wife drive that part of the trip!

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 17, 2023, 05:33:59 pm »
It's interesting. In the final fan poll, released before tournament started, Chicago was 15, Calvin 9. By all rights, that's a pretty fair matchup in a round of 16. In 4 pods of 4, it's a 2.25 seed vs a 3.75 seed overall. Considering a 4 team pod should be 1v4 and 2v3, it's darn close.

That's the thing about having 16 teams left out of 400+. Anyone can win at any time. That's why Messiah (1) is out, North Central (6), F&M (7), Emory (T14) and Kenyon (16) are all out from the final Top 16 ranking. That's almost 1/3 (5/16). You can say, well, the seedings were wrong and they lost to good teams, but for the highly ranked teams that dropped, W&L (RV), Washington College (RV), Ohio Northern (RV), Occidental (RV), and UWEC, or 5/16 of the remainder, were outside the Top 25. UWEC wasn't even in the RV category.

To get to the Sweet 16, W&L had to beat SUNY Oneonta (18), Washington College (Otterbein T24, Kenyon 16), ONU (Lynchburg 22, Messiah 1), Occidental (Trinity TX 20), UWEC (North Central T9, UW-P 19). Everyone one of these teams had to beat at least one team ranked ahead of them.

Did the voters do a bad job? Did the committees do a bad job? No.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. For the most part, the difference between the top 5-7 schools is negligible. You can put them in order, but it's really who started faster, who had the blemish longest ago, or who has the most impressive victory. None of which are actually good measures of anything. The difference between 7 and 15 is essentially irrelevant. The difference between 10 and 25 is razor thin. The difference between 15 and 35 is basically squat. And somewhere from 25-50 is pretty much splitting hairs. Yes the groups overlap, and yes they should.

For all of us who have participated in these polls, we know anywhere you put teams in these groupings is essentially equal, you are just finding some way to justify them with a number, and rarely is that justification based on anything truly relevant.

So yeah, 2 very good teams played today in a hard fought game that sends one home. It's going to happen tomorrow a lot. Because within these final 16 teams, there isn't much difference. Some will play well, some may not. It may look like a big difference on the day, or it may look like the Chicago - Calvin razor thin match. But if you played these 8 games 10x, they would probably average out to mostly close games and probably a whole lot of overall close records.

There just isn't that much difference anywhere in the bunch.

So according to the voters, who has the easiest game in this round and who has the hardest?

Calvin (T9), Chicago (15)
St Olaf (12), UW-EC (None)
ONU (RV), CC (14)
Tufts (8), W&L (RV)

MW (2), WC (RV)
Montclair (7), Conn (5)
Amherst (3), Oxy (RV)
Cortland (6), Middlebury (4)

Well the biggest chalk should be Mary Washington or Amherst. For me, the toughest draw was not Calvin/Chicago, it's Cortland/Middlebury, followed by Montclair/Conn. The Calvin/Chicago game would have been the third most unfair out of the 8 games.

Overall, looking at the pods, the Amherst pod is by far the most brutal. Cortland/Middlebury is, in a 4 team pod, a 1 vs 1.5. That whole pod has a .75, a 1, a 1.5 and an Unranked. That's a savage pod. Not far behind is Mary Washington, with a .5, a 1.25, a 1.75, and an Unranked.

The easiest pod overall is Tufts'. That pod has a 2, a 3.5, and two Unranked. That actually leaves the Calvin, Chicago pod as second easiest, a 2.25, a 3.75, a 3, and an Unranked.

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 17, 2023, 04:29:41 pm »
As an exercise someone should re-rank the Sweet 16 and repod them. See what you'd come up with.

Region 3 football (South Atlantic-ish) / Re: FB: Region 3 fan poll
« on: November 15, 2023, 08:41:12 am »
We are down a voter in this last week before the playoffs, but since the poll was static I don't think it matters much. Everyone held serve and now it is time for the post-season.

Trinity will host Hardin-Simmons in Round 1
R-MC hosts Christopher Newport in Round 1
Belhaven travels to defending champ NCC in Round 1

In the first of 4 contracted Chesapeake Bowls between the ODAC and Landmark:
W&L hosts Lycoming
Bridgewater travels to Wilkes

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 11
Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC
Weekly Change
Voter Breakdown
Trinity (TX) (5)
1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2 , 2 , 2 , 2 , 2
3 , 3 , 3 , 4 , 3
4 , 4 , 4 , 3 , 4
6 , 5 , 5 , 7 , 5
5 , 7 , 7 , 5 , 6
7 , 6 , 6 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
UMHB (2)

Newly Ranked: None
Dropped Out: None

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: jknezek, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, Hawks88

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 12, 2023, 07:26:41 pm »
Probably go old school and just put down sand in front of the goal.

Also why can't W&L do what Kenyon or McDaniel?  Not the first year it's been in this shape.

Not sure. It's not a lack of money. Maybe a different type of grass that doesn't hold up as well?

No idea but it is a problem if W&L wants to continue being a host late in the year.

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 12, 2023, 06:53:38 pm »
Huh. Scuttlebut from people who know more than me is that W&L has a good chance of hosting.

If that's the case, I sure hope W&L can get it's field into shape. It looked like it was falling apart especially in front the goal by the score board.

Natural grass, late in the season, after the growing period ends. Hard to do. Watt Field hosts both men's and women's teams. It's a big ask this time of year. Not sure what can be done once it goes dormant.

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 12, 2023, 06:25:39 pm »
Roanoke is 40 minutes from Lexington. Not easy to get to commercial direct, but plenty of connections.  I assume these are mostly charters anyway.

Totally agree Tufts is highest seed, but D3 being mindful of flights in choosing pods is a longstanding history.

Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
« on: November 12, 2023, 06:06:16 pm »
Huh. Scuttlebut from people who know more than me is that W&L has a good chance of hosting.

That would be kind of brutal for Colorado College to fly back to Colorado Springs and then have to fly back across the country to the southeast to play at Lexington.  I'm sure they would prefer Ohio Northern if that was possible.  I guess W& L is better than Tufts, though.

One saving grace is that under the school's unique one-class-a-time block system with 4, four-week blocks, Block 3 ends on Nov. 15 (this Wednesday) and then they have a Fall Break until Nov. 27, when Block 4 begins.  So, at least they wouldn't miss any classes traveling on Wednesday night or Thursday for a Friday game.

It's an awkward bracket travel-wise. Tufts and W&L are flight distance, 629 miles. Colorado College is flight distance from all. That leaves Ohio Northern, 419 miles from W&L, but flight distance to Tufts. So if you choose Tufts, it's 3 flights. If you chose Ohio Northern or W&L, it's 2 flights. Neither ONU or W&L has a women's team still in the tournament. By the bracket, I'd say W&L is a higher seed than Ohio Northern, so it could very well be W&L just to cut out 1 flight.

Is this a joke? Texas teams already get screwed matchup wise in playoffs each year, and now they send the Trinity/Hardin Simmons winner to North Central in the second round? That is pitiful. I don't care about the "you'll have to beat them anyway" point. Trinity went undefeated in 2021 and get's matched up first round with the national champion, and now even if they win they get blessed with the defending national champ. Unreal.

Region 3 gets no respect.

I don't know. RMC has a very good draw. Island teams get no respect.

About the best draw you could imagine for R-MC. Some tough teams in that bracket, as there should be for playoffs, but it's a winnable bracket very deep. Good luck YellowJackets!

W&L and Wilkes claim hosting for Chesapeake Challenge. Bridgewater posts a game at Wilkes, Lycoming claims bowl birth. So the matchups will be as I thought.

W&L hosting Lycoming, Wilkes hosting Bridgewater. Not the matchup I was hoping for, but should be interesting to see how these conferences stack up.

W&L and Wilkes claim hosting for Chesapeake Challenge. Bridgewater posts a game at Wilkes, Lycoming claims bowl birth. So the matchups will be as I thought.

W&L hosting Lycoming, Wilkes hosting Bridgewater. Not the matchup I was hoping for, but should be interesting to see how these conferences stack up.

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