BB: Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

The first of three published regional rankings were released this week.  Seeing who is on the regional rankings gives us a good idea of what teams need to do to earn a Pool C bid.

Thirteen (13) Pool A bids were earned by teams that were not listed in the third Regional Ranking in 2007.

2007 Regional Participants

Pool A	Automatic Qualifiers (33)
Ranking	School	Conference	Record	Appearance
MA-8	Frostburg State University (Md.)	Allegheny Mountain CC	31-13	4th
W-3	Texas Lutheran University	ASC	35-8	3rd
MA-3	Johns Hopkins University (Md.)	Centennial	35-9	14th
C-6	Carthage College (Wis.)	CCIW	32-11	14th
NE-6	Curry College (Mass.)	CCC	27-7	1st
-	Elizabethtown College (Pa.)	MAC-Commonwealth	22-16	9th
-	Wilkes University (Pa.)	MAC-Freedom	24-10	4th
NE-5	Western New England College (Mass.)	GNAC	27-10	4th
-	College of Mount St. Joseph (Ohio)	Heartland CAC	33-9	3rd
C-3	Luther College (Iowa)	Iowa IAC	29-9	4th
-	Skidmore College (N.Y.)	Liberty League	20-18	2nd
NE-2	Eastern Connecticut State University	LEC	34-10	28th
-	Westfield State College (Mass.)	MASCAC	20-15	7th
ME-7	Hope College (Mich.)	MIAA	28-11	4th
MW-7	Ripon College (Wis.)	MWC	21-13	8th
MW-3	University of St. Thomas (Minn.)	MIAC	32-10	13th
NE-3	Williams College (Mass.)	NESCAC	25-8	3rd
NE-1	Wheaton College (Mass.)	NEWMAC	31-11	7th
MA-2	The College of New Jersey	NJAC	32-9	17th
-	St. Joseph's College (Maine)	North Atlantic	30-10	1st
-	Ohio Wesleyan University	NCAC	24-13	16th
-	Villa Julie College (Md.)	NEAC	24-20	1st
W-2	Pacific Lutheran College (Wash.)	NWC	32-7	1st
ME-2	Otterbein College (Ohio)	OAC	31-11	10th
-	Bridgewater College (Va.)	ODAC	21-21	7th
MA-4	Gwynedd-Mercy College (Pa.)	PnAC	30-10	3rd
-	Manhattanville College (N.Y.)	Skyline	23-17	1st
W-6	Pomona-Pitzer Colleges (Calif.)	SCIAC	29-11	3rd
-	Austin College (Texas)	SCAC	22-23	1st
-	Webster University (Mo.)	SLIAC	30-12	3rd
NY-1	State University of New York-Cortland	SUNYAC	35-4	16th
-	Ferrum College (Va.)	USA South AC	22-16	10th
MW-4	University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point	WIAC	28-14	9th

Pool B	Independent Qualifiers (6)
Ranking	School	Conference	Record	Appearance
W-1	Chapman University (Calif.)	Independent	35-5	10th
MW-6	College of St. Scholastica (Minn.)	Upper Midwest   AC	36-6	4th
S-1	Emory University (Ga.)	UAA	35-7	9th
NY-2	Ithaca College (N.Y.)	Empire 8	24-13	31st
S-2	Salisbury University (Md.)	Capital AC	32-8	13th
C-4	Washington University (Mo.)	UAA	30-9	6th

Pool C	At-Large Qualifiers (14)
Ranking	School	Conference	Record	Appearance
C-5	Augustana College (Ill.)	CCIW	32-12	2nd
W-5	George Fox University (Ore.)	NWC	30-9	6th
C-1	Illinois Wesleyan University	CCIW	32-11	6th
MA-1	Kean University (N.J.)	New Jersey Athletic Conference	35-8	5th
NE-4	Keene State College (N.H.)	LEC	29-13	1st
ME-4	Marietta College (Ohio)	Ohio Athletic Conference	28-14	29th
S-4	Methodist College (N.C.)	USA South AC	29-13	22nd
NY-3	St. John Fisher College (N.Y.)	Indep. (E8)	26-11	1st
MW-1	St. Olaf College (Minn.)	MIAC	31-8	18th
W-4	The University of Texas at Dallas	ASC	32-11	1st
ME-1	The College of Wooster (Ohio)	NCAC	40-5	22nd
NE-7	Trinity College (Conn.)	NESCAC	28-6	6th
MW-2	University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh	WIAC	32-10	23rd
S-3	York College (Pa.)	Indep. (Capital AC)	29-12	10th

[Ralph Turner]

The schools in bold font were the schools that were in the third regional rankings which did not earn a Pool A or a Pool C bid, due to outcomes in games during the final weekend of the regular season.

Central
1. Illinois Wesleyan 27-7 30-9
2. Wartburg 23-8 26-11  -- Lost in Conference Tourney to Luther
3. Luther 23-7 26-9
4. Washington U. 29-7 30-9  Pool B
5. Augustana 25-9 30-10
6. Carthage 24-9 28-11

Mid-Atlantic
1. Kean 30-6 35-8
2. New Jersey 27-6 32-9
3. Johns Hopkins 30-9 34-9
4. Gwynedd-Mercy 27-10 30-10
5. Ramapo 25-10 29-13 -- NJAC
6. Alvernia 26-13 27-13  -- Gwynedd-Mercy won Pool A bid in Penn AC
7. Arcadia 22-10 24-13 -- Gwynedd-Mercy won Pool A bid
8. Frostburg State 17-6 27-13

Mideast
1. Wooster 32-3 39-3
2. Otterbein 24-7 27-10
3. Marietta 24-8 28-12
4. Washington and Jefferson 24-8 28-9  -- Pres AC; Has Pool A in 2008
5. Transylvania 26-9 29-10  -- Mount St Joseph earned Pool A bid.
6. Thomas More 23-8 25-9  -- Pres AC; Has Pool A in 2008
7. Hope 23-8 28-11

Midwest
1. St. Olaf 24-6 29-6
2. UW-Oshkosh 30-8 30-8
3. St. Thomas 22-8 28-9
4. UW-Stevens Point 22-9 25-14
5. Ripon 15-5 18-13
6. St. Scholastica 19-4 33-6   Pool B

New England
1. Wheaton (Mass.) 30-10 31-11  NEWMAC
2. Eastern Connecticut 26-5 30-9  LEC
3. Williams 18-6 21-7
4. Keene State 21-9 25-11  LEC  Pool C
5. Western New England 24-6 27-10
6. Curry 17-5 23-7
7. Trinity (Conn.) 24-6 28-6
8. Babson 23-14 25-14 -- Lost in NEWMAC tourney
9. Southern Maine 20-12 25-13 -- LEC; Failed to earn Pool C bid

New York
1. Cortland State 28-4 35-4
2. Ithaca 19-7 24-11               Pool B
3. St. John Fisher 21-10 23-10     Pool B -- Earned a Pool C bid
4. Oneonta State 21-8 23-9 -- Failed to earn Pool C bid
5. Rensselaer 20-8 23-8  -- Lost in LL tourney to Skidmore
6. Rochester Tech 17-8 21-10 -- Failed to earn Pool B bid

South
1. Emory 32-6 35-7             Pool B
2. Salisbury 25-6 32-7          Pool B
3. York (Pa.) 24-12 29-12     Pool B -- Earned a Pool C bid
4. Methodist 24-12 29-13
5. Millsaps 28-10 35-11 -- Lost in SCAC tourney to Austin College (22-23)
6. Rhodes 27-10 36-10  -- Lost in SCAC tourney to Austin College (22-23)

West
1. Chapman 28-2 35-5           Pool B
2. Pacific Lutheran 28-6 32-7
3. Texas Lutheran 27-8 35-8-1
4. Texas-Dallas 29-9 32-11
5. George Fox 25-9 30-9
6. Pomona-Pitzer 23-8 29-11

[Ralph Turner]

In an attempt to learn from last season's Committee Selections, I have calculated the in-region winning percentage for the 2007 Pool C bid teams.  These data suggest that in-region winning percentage is really only one component (as the Handbook says).  The absolute number (percentage) cannot give one a sense of security that your team will earn a Pool C bid.  As the Handbook states, on can see how the committee must look at strength of schedule by region, results versus in-region opponents, etc.,  as an important part of awarding the Pool C bids when the process is occurring.

In-Region Winnning Percentages of the 2007 Pool C Bid Winners

Pool C	At-Large Qualifiers (14)
Ranking	School	Conference	Overall Record	In-Region Record	In-Region %-age
C-5	Augustana College (Ill.)	CCIW	32-12	27-11	.710
W-5	George Fox University (Ore.)	NWC	30-9	25-9	.735
C-1	Illinois Wesleyan University	CCIW	32-11	29-9	.763
MA-1	Kean University (N.J.)	New Jersey Athletic Conference	35-8	30-6	.833
NE-4	Keene State College (N.H.)	LEC	29-13	25-11	.694
ME-4	Marietta College (Ohio)	Ohio Athletic Conference	28-14	24-10	.706
S-4	Methodist College (N.C.)	USA South AC	29-13	24-12	.667
NY-3	St. John Fisher College (N.Y.)	Indep. (E8)	26-11	24-11	.686
MW-1	St. Olaf College (Minn.)	MIAC	31-8	26-8	.765
W-4	The University of Texas at Dallas	ASC	32-11	29-9	.763
ME-1	The College of Wooster (Ohio)	NCAC	40-5	33-5	.868
NE-7	Trinity College (Conn.)	NESCAC	28-6	24-6	.800
MW-2	University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh	WIAC	32-10	32-10	.762
S-3	York College (Pa.)	Indep. (Capital AC)	29-12	24-12	.667

[A.G.]

Based on that criteria, will you be in a situation to PREDICT the Pool C teams after the next rankings are released on Thursday?  In the south, my questions are:
1.  Does Lynchburg "appear" to be a lock
2.  Can UMW play its way in
3.  Who is left out between UMW, Emory, and NCWC?
4.  Is there a team we're not considering that could sneak in?
5.  Is the South strong enough this year to rate an 8-team region.

[BigPoppa]

It is so hard to predict the Pool C teams because they are all based on the favorites (locks) winning their league's automatic bids. eveytime a "non-lock" team wins a bid it takes one away from the "bubble" Pool Cs. There are only so many slots and bubble teams need to cheer for the favorites to win their league bids and keep Pool Cs open for themselves.

[cubs]

So what are the chances any of the strong conferences get more than one Pool C bid this year? 

Looking at the WIAC, I think there are three closely matched teams in Oshkosh, Stevens Point, and Whitewater and I would have a hard time taking one over another when it comes to Pool C consideration.  I am sure the Stevens Point/Whitewater four game set this weekend will go a LONG way it clearing up things.

[Ralph Turner]

Based on that criteria, will you be in a situation to PREDICT the Pool C teams after the next rankings are released on Thursday?  In the south, my questions are:
1.  Does Lynchburg "appear" to be a lock?  Not yet!
2.  Can UMW play its way in?  Yes, if they sweep the remaining games!
3.  Who is left out between UMW, Emory, and NCWC?  Not sure, if anyone is left.
4.  Is there a team we're not considering that could sneak in?  I don't see them in the South Region
5.  Is the South strong enough this year to rate an 8-team region? See Discussion

I think that we can make those predictions with the third regional rankings.  There were 14 Regional Ranked teams that did not get a bid last.  They occurred deep in the regional rankings.  I believe that Austin College, a real Cinderella last year, knocked out two SCAC teams, just by the weakness that those losses to AC impacting the other criteria in the final (never-to-be-published-or disclosed) Regional Rankings that the selection committee sees.

Six- or eight-team bracket

I think that the biggest factor in the number of teams in the bracket has more to do with travel costs.  How do you avoid plane flights?  Where can you bus a team 499 miles to a venue and save a plane flight?

As for the team perspective, if you have five good starters, then you want an 8-team bracket and win by attrition.  If you barely have three solid starters, then hope for a 6-team bracket and winning the first two games easily.

[fouriscosmic]

The NJAC will be sending some pool C teams to the Mid-Atlantic Regional.  Montclair St., CNJ, Kean and Rowan could all win it, and all of them are arguably Pool C teams as well.  The only other potential Pool C team in the Mid-Atlantic would be Hopkins if they were to not get the Centennial Bid.

[Mr. Ypsi]

In the CCIW, Carthage and IWU would appear to be locks if they don't win the tourney (both still have only 2 in-region losses, and have a 3-game showdown in Kenosha this weekend).  IF Augustana wins out, and wins at least a game or two in the conference tourney, they are at least on the bubble.  The fourth team in the CCIW tourney (almost certainly Wheaton, though NPU is still mathematically alive) has no chance of a pool C.

Barring either Carthage or IWU having a disastrous week, if either Augie or Wheaton wins the conference tourney, the CCIW should have two pool Cs.  An intriguing scenario would be if Augie wins out, then loses to Wheaton (or NPU) in the tourney final - could the CCIW actually muster THREE pool Cs?  The conference is probably not deserving of four teams, but selection is supposedly of teams, not conferences, and the teams would all seem deserving.

[averetthomer]

What are the chances of Greensboro College making a regional? I think they are 24-9 in the South region and they are supposedly adding 3 games against a quality Rhodes team. If they somehow pull off a sweep and finish 27-9 in the region, do they have a shot at an at-large bid?

[Ralph Turner]

What are the chances of Greensboro College making a regional? I think they are 24-9 in the South region and they are supposedly adding 3 games against a quality Rhodes team. If they somehow pull off a sweep and finish 27-9 in the region, do they have a shot at an at-large bid?

I think that they are very good.  Rhodes is 21-11 in South Region games.  The Lynx are desperate for a Pool C bid.  Rhodes had 3 cancellations in their 40 game regular season.  Sweeping Greensboro makes Rhodes 24-11 and lifts them above the Greensboro.

[averetthomer]

Thanks for the response. So after reading your answer, I have another question. Do you think whichever team that takes 2 out of 3 gets into the tourney or will a team need to sweep the series in order to secure a birth?

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the response. So after reading your answer, I have another question. Do you think whichever team that takes 2 out of 3 gets into the tourney or will a team need to sweep the series in order to secure a birth?

A-homer, I don't think that either team will get a Pool C bid, if they don't sneak into the South Region rankings.

I am not smart enough to figure out who might get a Pool C bid if they are not "on the table" by the third week's Regional Rankings.  If Rhodes and Greensboro play the games by that rankings release (May 2-4), then we should know if it had an impact.

[BigPoppa]

So much of it is speculative based on the results of the Pool A conferences' tournament/league results. Most of the Pool C "bubble teams" will be left out if the underdogs win those bids. Most will get in if the favorites win the bids. It is so tough to call at this point. All a team can do is win its in-region games and put itself in a great position to get a berth to the post-season.

With that being said, I would think it is hard to deny a 27-9 in-region record a chance at the post-season.

[averetthomer]

Thanks for the input on the USA South guys. I just don't really understand why Methodist is a lock to get in before GC. Methodist is now 26-15-1 overall while GC is 25-14. MC is scheduled to play two games with Piedmont while GC is supposedly playing 3 against Rhodes. If MC gets swept and GC sweeps, do things change a little bit or not? That would give MC 17 losses and leave GC with a 28-14 overall record. I'm just a fan of the game who is trying to learn more about the playoffs. Plus, my Cougars are waiting until next year.