Who should be #1?

[utilitycat17]

Chapman is a fantastic academic school with a great film school (what can you say... it IS Los Angeles). They also happen to be centrally located to 8-9 powerhouse junior college programs within 15-20 miles of the campus. A great place to recruit.

Chapman doesn't really take as much advantage of their local junior college programs like they used to.  And, BigPoppa, I know you know, but it is not Los Angeles.  But I understand what you're getting at.  There is, however, a team just down the road that apparently plays in LA.

This will be an interesting year for them though.  They have 14 freshmen on their current roster and 7 sophomores.  There are only 6 seniors.  Should be some new faces out there this year.

[BigPoppa]

Chapman's run in the West could easily end this year. They have had a huge turnover in players... agreed. Chapman is not really in LA, but Orange County, yet the LA culture is very strong there.

[CrashDavisD3]

Wow..Great research...

Did you notice that the final #1 since 2005 was in the preseason top 10 once ?

2005 11 to 1
2006  8  to 1
2007 15 to 1
2008 21 to 1
2009 25 to 1

2010 ??

[ECSUalum]

Crash,

Great pick up on these stats.  Additionally, someone could look at the deltas (pre/final) for all preseason poll teams to get gauge on accuracy of preseason poll.

[Jim Dixon]

Crash,

Great pick up on these stats.  Additionally, someone could look at the deltas (pre/final) for all preseason poll teams to get gauge on accuracy of preseason poll.

I will have a blog sometime soon about polls. 

The best guess for the weather tomorrow is what it was today.   If your a good program this year, chances are that you will be a good program this year.  The CB preseason poll operates on that theory.

I need to look at the teams in just one of each the preseason polls to see how they fared.

[ECSUalum]

I wonder how the D3 Baseball.com top 25 preseason vs postseason poll stats compare va above CB for accuracy?

Maybe I will do these next

[BigPoppa]

I wonder how the D3 Baseball.com top 25 preseason vs postseason poll stats compare va above CB for accuracy?

Maybe I will do these next

I was thinking the same thing, but I am way too lazy to do that research. I'd love to see what you produce.

[ECSUalum]

Here are D3Baseball.com Top 25 stats comparing preseason vs postseason for 2008 and 2009 which are archived on this site:  Note I actually compared the top 30, the last five coming from top 5 teams receiving votes at bottom of list.

Both years 15 out of 30 in pre ended up on post, about the same as Collegiate Baseball, (top 30), polls

2008                           2009

Cort   1-6                   Chap 2-4
Chap  2-4                  TrinCt 3-6
Kean  3-9                   UWW 4-20
Wstr  4-20                 JHopk  5-27
JHop  8-2                   Adrian 6-24
Carth 9-17                 Kean   7-5
UWOk 11-27              Heidl  8-14
StTom 13-11              Salis   9-10
NJersy 14-29             Wstr   11-2
Weatn 15-12             TxTyl  12-17
TexTy  16-23              ECSU 13-8
Augus  18-24             St Schl 15-22
Ill Wes 19-15             Etta    17-19
TrinCt   23-1              StTom 18-1
KneSt 25-16              Carth   24-3








 

[BigPoppa]

Just goes to show that teams in the top 25 are usually there for a good reason. Finishing in  the top 25 in a season is a solid finish, regardless of your expectations.

[BigPoppa]

I was reviewing my pre-season Top 25 and hit on five of the eight regional representatives in the top 25 and had 20 of the 25 in the post-season. I missed on Linfield, UMASS-Boston and Johns Hopkins. (Next year, I hope to get all eight in the Top 25).

Preseason Top 25
1 Wooster- Lost in regional
2 St. Thomas- Lost in regional
3 Salisbury- lost in regional
4 UW-Stevens Point- Won Midwest regional
5 Eastern Connecticut- Lost in regional
6 Heidelberg- won Mid-East regional (corrected... thanks, Gramps!)
7 Pomona-Pitzer- Lost in regional
8 Chapman- Lost in regional
9 Kean- lost in regional
10 Trinity (Conn.)- Lost in regional
11 Adrian- Lost in regional
12 Texas-Tyler- Lost in regional
13 Southern Maine- missed NCAA post-season
14 Carthage- Lost in regional
15 Wheaton (Mass.)- Lost in regional
16 Millsaps- missed NCAA post-season
17 Keystone- Lost in regional
18 Shenandoah- Won South regional
19 Cortland State- Won New York regional
20 Marietta- lost in regional
21 Illinois Wesleyan- Won Central regional
22 St. Olaf- missed NCAA post-season
23 Cal Lutheran- missed NCAA post-season
24 St. Scholastica- Lost in regional
25 Beloit- missed NCAA post-season

[ECSUalum]

BP,

Nice follow-up on you pre season predictions!!

[OshDude]

Trinity didn't make regionals. Neither of us had the steamroller, JHU? Interesting.
Dusted off mine as well. Big airballs on RPI, Trinity and St. Olaf, and a brick on Southern Maine. Hindsight being what it is, combined with my respect for the program, it's hard to believe I didn't have Linfield on there.

1. St. Thomas
2. Wooster
3. Salisbury
4. Eastern Connecticut
5. UW-Stevens Point
6. Kean
7. Shenandoah
8. Heidelberg
9. Trinity (Conn.)
10. Rose-Hulman
11. RPI
12. Adrian
13. Cortland
14. Chapman
15. St. Scholastica
16. Wheaton (Mass.)
17. Carthage
18. Marietta
19. Southern Maine
20. Pomona-Pitzer
21. Illinois Wesleyan
22. St. Joseph’s (Maine)
23. UW-Whitewater
24. Washington & Jefferson
25. St. Olaf

D3baseball.com preseason Top 25

[BigPoppa]

I still have no idea how I overlooked JHU and Linfield either... oh, well. I can learn from it and be better next year.

[Ralph Turner]

Here is my first try at a Top 25.  I have stricken those teams that did not make the playoffs.

1    St. Thomas
2    Chapman
3    Wooster
4    Kean
5    Eastern Connecticut
6   Trinity (Conn.) Not only didn't win the NESCAC, but failed to earn a bid.
7      Carthage
8      Heidelberg
9      Keystone
10      Pomona-Pitzer
11      RPI  Lost to Skidmore
12      Marietta
13      Adrian
14      Salisbury
15      Southern Maine  Failed to earn a Pool C bid
16      UW-Stevens Point
17      Mississippi College
18      Rose-Hulman
19      St. Scholastica
20      Shenandoah
21      Linfield
22      St. Olaf  Failed to earn a Pool C bid
23      Texas Lutheran  Won the ASC-West
24      Wheaton (Mass.)
25      UW-Whitewater

No JHU, UMB, IWU,

I got 5 of the 8 Regional winners and only missed 4 playoff teams.

[Jim Dixon]

My preseason list:

I have 5 Championship teams in my top 25 (Cortland, Heidelberg, Linfield, UW-Stevens Point, and Shenandoah).  I also have three runners up.

I also have 7 teams that did not make the playoffs.

Wooster - lost in regional
Salisbury - lost in regional final
Kean - lost in regional final
Trinity (Conn.) - no playoffs
St. Thomas - lost in regional
RPI - no playoffs
Eastern Conn. -  lost in regional   
Linfield - Won West
Adrian - lost in regional
Cortlan - Won New York
Keystone - lost in regional
UWSP - Win Midwest
PS Behrend   - lost in regional
Heidelberg - Won Mideast
Marietta - lost in regional final
Otterbein - no playoffs
Rose-Hulman - lost in regional   
Beloit - no playoffs
Wheaton (Mass.) - lost in regional   
Carthage - lost in regional
Shenadoah - Won South
Wheaton (Ill.) - no playoffs   
Bethel - no playoffs
St. Joe (Maine)    - lost in regional
BSC - no playoffs