Future of Division III

Started by Ralph Turner, October 10, 2005, 07:27:51 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Pat Coleman

Among Division III schools, so far, two: MacMurray (Ill.), which closed at the conclusion of the spring semester, and Johnson & Wales-Denver, which closes in spring 2021 but has ceased athletics. In addition, J&W is closing its Florida campus on the same time frame.

Others? Perhaps. I don't know.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

OzJohnnie

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on July 11, 2020, 10:52:49 AM
I am shocked at the disregard for a few things. First, if the entire population was infected and on average 4% died ... that is still 312 million deaths.

Secondly, while someone might survive ... they pass it along to someone who may be vulnerable, even if that person is doing everything they can not to be at risk and be safe.

A death rate over 1% is staggering. The disregard for that understanding is shocking.

If you make up scary numbers then you get scared.  Wheres the 4% fatality rate come from?  Nobody has been bandying around that number since March.  And for that matter, where does the next statement of over 1% come from?  Even the cautious CDC's best estimate from 6 weeks ago was 0.4%.  And since that estimate, the fatality rate has fallen by a quarter in the USA so I imagine the CDC's next estimate will be significantly improved.

As for protecting the vulnerable, who doesn't want to do that?  it's the number one thing that weighs on my mind with this pandemic since the vulnerable i my life are on the other side of the planet and I am completely unable to help them if they get in trouble.  No one needs to trot out a generic vulnerable card.  I've got specific concerns and am as well aware as anyone on that topic.  But I'm not panicked.  Why?  Because social distancing protects the vulnerable.  If my parents pay attention to their surroundings then they are doing everything they can to stay safe.  Oddly, DIII football has absolutely no impact on their physical health.

You know, it is possible to both let the vast majority of the population who have nothing different than normal experience to expect from this virus get on with their lives while also giving the vulnerable the assistance they need to protect themselves.  I personally am shocked at the disregard people have for that reality.
[  

Ron Boerger

Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 11, 2020, 05:49:18 PM
Among Division III schools, so far, two: MacMurray (Ill.), which closed at the conclusion of the spring semester, and Johnson & Wales-Denver, which closes in spring 2021 but has ceased athletics. In addition, J&W is closing its Florida campus on the same time frame.

Others? Perhaps. I don't know.

Plus Wesley is being absorbed into Delaware State after the upcoming (?) athletic season.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: Ron Boerger on July 11, 2020, 09:41:33 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 11, 2020, 05:49:18 PM
Among Division III schools, so far, two: MacMurray (Ill.), which closed at the conclusion of the spring semester, and Johnson & Wales-Denver, which closes in spring 2021 but has ceased athletics. In addition, J&W is closing its Florida campus on the same time frame.

Others? Perhaps. I don't know.

Plus Wesley is being absorbed into Delaware State after the upcoming (?) athletic season.

But the impact on ... anything is completely unknown. Just ask them.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

OzJohnnie

The BBC with some very revealing stories lately which if considered, could have a very big impact on decision making regarding colleges this year, not to mention life in general.

Coronavirus: How scared should we be?



Quote
So coronavirus is, in effect, taking any frailties and amplifying them. It is like packing an extra year's worth of risk into a short period of time.

If your risk of dying was very low in the first place, it still remains very low.

As for children, the risk of dying from other things - cancer and accidents are the biggest cause of fatalities - is greater than their chance of dying if they are infected with coronavirus.
[  

thescottharris

#2690
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 12, 2020, 09:19:17 AM
The BBC with some very revealing stories lately which if considered, could have a very big impact on decision making regarding colleges this year, not to mention life in general.

Coronavirus: How scared should we be?



Quote
So coronavirus is, in effect, taking any frailties and amplifying them. It is like packing an extra year's worth of risk into a short period of time.

If your risk of dying was very low in the first place, it still remains very low.

As for children, the risk of dying from other things - cancer and accidents are the biggest cause of fatalities - is greater than their chance of dying if they are infected with coronavirus.
Death rate from Coronavirus isn't the only thing to be concerned about.

Hospitals are being over run, which leaves people at risk of death or other serious health risks/problems because they can't get the treatment they need or they avoid going to the hospital so they won't catch Coronavirus. One Texas patient had to be flown 120 miles to El Campo by helicopter because that's the closest facility that could take him. Ambulances are waiting up to 10 hours to deliver patients to ERs in Hidalgo County, Texas. The normal wait is less than 30 minutes. Ambulances aren't suited to provide long-term care and the space constraints generally prevent them from being able to adapt to do that. Overwhelmed hospitals used to transfer patients to other hospitals that had space for ICU patients, but many in Texas aren't taking transfers now because they don't have the space or want to leave space open for the incoming surge. And the rural hospitals that normally transfer complex medical cases to the better resourced larger hospitals in the bigger cities can't because those bigger city hospitals don't have anywhere to put them. Hospitals are having to spend millions to convert space into ICU space. Houston had to open up their children's hospital for adult patients.

PPE supplies are again running low, which puts our medical personnel at risk. In additions to beds, some Texas hospitals are running out of drugs, ventilators, and staff. Hospitals in Midland and Odessa, Texas, had to turn away Coronavirus patients because they didn't have the staff to offer them the care they needed. Hospitals are turning to using older model and disaster ventilators that are less optimal for treating the virus.

People are being it with devastating medicals bills from getting Coronavirus, I've seen stories of people getting bills that are well over $10K.

And if many Republicans get their way, being able to deny someone health insurance over pre-existing conditions will return along with lifetime maximums. If that happens, people with any long term health problems resulting from getting Coronavirus will have a difficult time getting health insurance (at least anything that isn't a scam) if their employer doesn't offer it and could quickly hit their lifetime maximum well before they get into twilight years where they have the most health problems.


OzJohnnie

#2692
Quote from: scotth on July 15, 2020, 10:07:51 AM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 12, 2020, 09:19:17 AM
The BBC with some very revealing stories lately which if considered, could have a very big impact on decision making regarding colleges this year, not to mention life in general.

Coronavirus: How scared should we be?



Quote
So coronavirus is, in effect, taking any frailties and amplifying them. It is like packing an extra year's worth of risk into a short period of time.

If your risk of dying was very low in the first place, it still remains very low.

As for children, the risk of dying from other things - cancer and accidents are the biggest cause of fatalities - is greater than their chance of dying if they are infected with coronavirus.
Death rate from Coronavirus isn't the only thing to be concerned about.

Hospitals are being over run, which leaves people at risk of death or other serious health risks/problems because they can't get the treatment they need or they avoid going to the hospital so they won't catch Coronavirus. One Texas patient had to be flown 120 miles to El Campo by helicopter because that's the closest facility that could take him. Ambulances are waiting up to 10 hours to deliver patients to ERs in Hidalgo County, Texas. The normal wait is less than 30 minutes. Ambulances aren't suited to provide long-term care and the space constraints generally prevent them from being able to adapt to do that. Overwhelmed hospitals used to transfer patients to other hospitals that had space for ICU patients, but many in Texas aren't taking transfers now because they don't have the space or want to leave space open for the incoming surge. And the rural hospitals that normally transfer complex medical cases to the better resourced larger hospitals in the bigger cities can't because those bigger city hospitals don't have anywhere to put them. Hospitals are having to spend millions to convert space into ICU space. Houston had to open up their children's hospital for adult patients.

PPE supplies are again running low, which puts our medical personnel at risk. In additions to beds, some Texas hospitals are running out of drugs, ventilators, and staff. Hospitals in Midland and Odessa, Texas, had to turn away Coronavirus patients because they didn't have the staff to offer them the care they needed. Hospitals are turning to using older model and disaster ventilators that are less optimal for treating the virus.

People are being it with devastating medicals bills from getting Coronavirus, I've seen stories of people getting bills that are well over $10K.

And if many Republicans get their way, being able to deny someone health insurance over pre-existing conditions will return along with lifetime maximums. If that happens, people with any long term health problems resulting from getting Coronavirus will have a difficult time getting health insurance (at least anything that isn't a scam) if their employer doesn't offer it and could quickly hit their lifetime maximum well before they get into twilight years where they have the most health problems.

Wow.  That's pretty hopeless.  Those damned Republicans, eh?  They just take delight in killing people.

I have no idea which hospitals you're referring to other than the anecdotes you present, so let's look at the numbers for Texas.  In this post from July 1st I linked to the data on Texas hospital capacity.  We can take a look at what it said then and compare it to what it says now to see what is actually happening.

Then:

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 01, 2020, 09:19:20 AM
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Data from the TX dept of health and human services.

RE: Texas.  You'll need to click around the visualization to find the numbers but there are 55.3k hospital beds in TX, of which 41.5k are occupied (75% capacity).  Of those 41.5k bedded patients, 6.5k are with CV (12% of capacity and 16% of demand).  1.4k ICU beds and 5.5k ventilators remained unused.  So it appears that in TX, at least, the covid outbreak can get three times worse before TX must start using additional capacity facilities.

Now:

There are 56.7k beds in Texas of which 46.2k are occupied (81% capacity).  Of those 46.2k bedded patients, 10.6k are CV positive (19% of capacity and 23% of demand) [we can infer from the totals that non-CV hospital demand has remained stable over this period at 35k-36k beds instead of declining as you intimate].  900 ICU beds and and 5.2k ventilators remain unused.

So has TX reached a point where the must start adding extra capacity?  It appears they are not even close to that point.  But where did the extra 1.4k beds come from?  I suspect they have been made available in the Dallas and Houston areas of the state which are running closer to 85% capacity (84% in Dallas and 88% in Houston).

But what is that extra capacity?  Again from my July 1 post:

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 01, 2020, 09:19:20 AM
According to this hospital brief by the TX DHS, hospitals in Texas can surge to 20% additional capacity above published numbers before they need to create new facilities.  So thats an additional 11k beds and which brings TX's capacity to treat sick patients with current facilities to almost 5x current CV requirements.  And there are already designated overflow facilities (convention centers and the like, it seems) which add another 4.5k beds in the state if needed and which bring the capacity of the state to almost 6x the current levels.

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/PPT_6.16.20.pdf

Interestingly, despite breathless reports of Houston's largest hospital reaching near 100% capacity, overall Houston remains only 78% full, pretty much in line with the overall state numbers.  It's almost as if Houston is following some foolish policy like routing all CV patients to designated facilities in order to reduce cross-contamination and the like.  Crazy.

I think TX will get past the challenge.

So total surge capacity in TX is about 66.5k beds from existing facilities and about 71k beds by bringing designated overflow facilities online.  That means TX is at 65% of total capacity when they reach the true "overrun" point, as opposed to 58% capacity on July 1.  In order to be overrun, Covid hospitalisations would have to increase by 200% or to 30k patients.

As I thought on July 1, I think the Texas hospital system is more than adequate to meet this challenge and TX will make it through.
[  

Gray Fox

Oz,
  Beds are only one part.  You also need the nurses and doctors and other equipment.
Fierce When Roused

ADL70

SPARTANS...PREPARE FOR GLORY
HA-WOO, HA-WOO, HA-WOO
Think beyond the possible.
Compete, Win, Respect, Unite

OzJohnnie

Quote from: Gray Fox on July 18, 2020, 10:31:19 AM
Oz,
  Beds are only one part.  You also need the nurses and doctors and other equipment.

Come on, you reckon the Dept of Health neglected to consider that detail when stating how many beds they can sustain?
[  

thescottharris

One thing we may have not considered in regards to D3 athletics resuming is that most (at least of the colleges I am familiar enough with to be able to say this) operate with barely enough ATCs to cover in-season sports much less being able to provide regular coverage of non-traditional season sports. What are they going to do when an ATC gets the virus and has to be out for an extended period of time? You can't play the games without an ATC present, after all. Ability of athletic training departments to properly cover games, practices, and all the training room treatment is going to be compromised if they aren't able to work out an agreement to have ATCs on retainer to help fill in on short notice, and that is likely not going to be an option for colleges in smaller/rural areas.

And the general protocol is when someone gets the virus, people that were exposed to said person is supposed to get tested and quarantined for 72 hours or until they get the results back. What are we going to do when a player, coach, or athletic trainer tests positive on the eve of a game? Is the game just going to get canceled, or are we going to just let it happen and hope no one else has the virus and spreads it?

And how are schools going to be able to afford to do mass testing when it's needed? If a player has coronavirus, I would imagine the chances are pretty high that other teammates have gotten it in contact sports like football, soccer, basketball, lacrosse, etc. And even in non-contact sports like volleyball, cross country, track, you're going to be in close confines with your teammates general six days a week at practice, in the locker room, sharing equipment of various types, etc. And I'd imagine most D3 schools don't have multiple athletics weight lifting facilties or athletic training rooms, so when one person gets it that has recently used the weight room or training room, then they have exposed it to all the other athletes from different teams that have used the weight room and training room. You're talking potentially hundreds of tests that will need to be done anytime any athlete, coach, or athletic trainer contracts the virus.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 18, 2020, 04:26:42 PM
Quote from: Gray Fox on July 18, 2020, 10:31:19 AM
Oz,
  Beds are only one part.  You also need the nurses and doctors and other equipment.

Come on, you reckon the Dept of Health neglected to consider that detail when stating how many beds they can sustain?

You do realize there is a significant difference between hospital beds for those recovering from elective surgeries and simple illnesses and those needed for extreme cases, right?

If someone is in a regular hospital bed and their health goes south they are MOVED to a different section/wing of the hospital where more equipment, differently trained staff (nurses, etc.) are available, and other things are available to handle their more complicated case. You can't just make all beds ICU beds. That isn't possible. There isn't enough equipment, the air handling standards are different, the staff training is VERY different (nurses have all kinds of different training; my sister in law had far more complex training as a Surgical ICU nurse than one who works in a different wing). The number of staff is also different. I spent the night in surgical recovery last year because there wasn't a bed available that was previously planned. The disadvantage is it isn't a comfortable or private, but I had a nurse one-to-one assigned to me. If I was in the other wing, I would have been one of maybe ten patients a nurse would have been assigned.

You can't look at raw hospital bed numbers because they don't tell you how many beds are available for ICU and other severe illneses and such. The number of ICU and severe case beds are the ones to pay attention to - only. I have a dear friend in Houston. His constant updates are they are basically out of ICU and severe case beds. In other words, if he were to be in bad car accident right now, there might not be a place that can handle him case as we would expect because the staffing, beds, equipment, etc. are taken up by COVID cases. THAT is the problem NO ONE (especially you) seems to grasp from this illness. When we overwhelm our medical systems due to COVID, ALL cases take a significant back seat. So now the heart attack, car accident, stroke, etc. case is more at risk of turning out badly than they were if we had more of a control on COVID.

BTW - hospitals will go out of business from this as well. They stay open not because of emergency care - that is a money losing business. They stay open because of elective surgeries and the like. If they don't have enough surgical rooms, beds, staff, etc. for elective surgeries - or can't figure out a way to put systems in place to keep people safe from COVID ... they have to limit or shutdown elective surgeries. That will shutdown hospitals in the long run.

I am blown away with your cavalier attitude towards all this. You cherry pick information that fits your narrow, narrow thinking. You refuse to understand the larger problems a foot. And you do not care about anything but your selfish needs.

We ALL want athletics back up and running. We want student-athletes in schools and teams on the fields/courts, but it seems a majority of us are well aware that things are not good right now. That we are overwhelming our hospital systems, we are putting people at risk in danger (even if they are trying to be safe), and we are allowing a virus to get out of control. Compared to most of the rest of the world, we look like idiots ... but you keep arguing things are good. Mindblowing.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

jamtod

Interesting article on AL.com about the College Football "Information Wars" and evolving narrative. Seems to have implications across the board for all sports:
https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/2020/07/inside-college-footballs-coronavirus-information-war.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

OzJohnnie

#2699
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on July 19, 2020, 12:53:57 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 18, 2020, 04:26:42 PM
Quote from: Gray Fox on July 18, 2020, 10:31:19 AM
Oz,
  Beds are only one part.  You also need the nurses and doctors and other equipment.

Come on, you reckon the Dept of Health neglected to consider that detail when stating how many beds they can sustain?

(A) You do realize there is a significant difference between hospital beds for those recovering from elective surgeries and simple illnesses and those needed for extreme cases, right?

If someone is in a regular hospital bed and their health goes south they are MOVED to a different section/wing of the hospital where more equipment, differently trained staff (nurses, etc.) are available, and other things are available to handle their more complicated case. (B)You can't just make all beds ICU beds. That isn't possible. There isn't enough equipment, the air handling standards are different, the staff training is VERY different (nurses have all kinds of different training; my sister in law had far more complex training as a Surgical ICU nurse than one who works in a different wing). The number of staff is also different. I spent the night in surgical recovery last year because there wasn't a bed available that was previously planned. The disadvantage is it isn't a comfortable or private, but I had a nurse one-to-one assigned to me. C) If I was in the other wing, I would have been one of maybe ten patients a nurse would have been assigned.

(D)You can't look at raw hospital bed numbers because they don't tell you how many beds are available for ICU and other severe illneses and such. The number of ICU and severe case beds are the ones to pay attention to - only. I have a dear friend in Houston. His constant updates are they are basically out of ICU and severe case beds. In other words, if he were to be in bad car accident right now, there might not be a place that can handle him case as we would expect because the staffing, beds, equipment, etc. are taken up by COVID cases. THAT is the problem NO ONE (especially you) seems to grasp from this illness. When we overwhelm our medical systems due to COVID, ALL cases take a significant back seat. (E)So now the heart attack, car accident, stroke, etc. case is more at risk of turning out badly than they were if we had more of a control on COVID.

BTW - hospitals will go out of business from this as well. They stay open not because of emergency care - that is a money losing business. They stay open because of elective surgeries and the like. If they don't have enough surgical rooms, beds, staff, etc. for elective surgeries - or can't figure out a way to put systems in place to keep people safe from COVID ... they have to limit or shutdown elective surgeries. That will shutdown hospitals in the long run.

(F)I am blown away with your cavalier attitude towards all this. You cherry pick information that fits your narrow, narrow thinking. You refuse to understand the larger problems a foot. And you do not care about anything but your selfish needs.

We ALL want athletics back up and running. We want student-athletes in schools and teams on the fields/courts, but it seems a majority of us are well aware that things are not good right now. That we are overwhelming our hospital systems, we are putting people at risk in danger (even if they are trying to be safe), and we are allowing a virus to get out of control. Compared to most of the rest of the world, we look like idiots ... but you keep arguing things are good. Mindblowing.

A) What a ridiculous question.  If your disagreement with the information I clearly provide supporting every post I make relies on such ignorance from people who disagree with you then I can see why your posts are always so emotional.

B) Oh the problems with this fatalistic statement.  Obviously it isn't true, how the did the first bed get made?  Additionally, it flies in the face of the information from the TX department of health.  Lastly, it's steeped in ignorant fear.  Hear's an article from the Texas Medical Centre explaining exactly why your believe is wrong: "That's what happens normally in hospitals. They're at their full capacity and when it gets crowded, they add additional beds, ventilators, and staff so you get the same quality of care," Dr. James McDeavitt, senior vice-president and dean of Clinical Affairs for Baylor College of Medicine, said.

C) I know what the average nurse to bed ratio is in the USA.  I also know what it is in every major country because I have looked it up.  Hint, it's nothing like your make-believe number from the expertise of your single stay in hospital.  I'll leave it to you to discover the actual numbers.  Let's see if you have it in you to absorb information which doesn't fit your fatalistic world view.

D) I don't know why I bother responding to you as you clearly don't read my posts.  I listed ICU bed counts in my post.  Usage.  Availability.  I clearly do you the courtesy of reading what you type.  I guess I shouldn't be surprised that you don't do the same in response since you're so eager to demean rather than discuss.

E) Show us where the quality of care is actually dropping.  Stick with Texas, if possible.  I've already presented the Texas numbers that show non-Covid related patients have remained steady.  Show us the drop in quality of care.  Not a fact-free argument.  If all you can bring to this discussion is your imagination then let us know that now, thanks.

F) Cherry picking?  You present no evidence I cherry pick other than once again the offensive, bald assertion.  You're free to post any information you like in support of your argument.  Yes you choose none.  You're free to demonstrate how my presented information is wrong or incomplete.  You fail to do so.  I am, frankly, stunned by your inability to look at this rationally rather than emotionally.  In the face of data which doesn't fit your world view you lash out with insult and invective.  The projection is strong with you.

I look at the data and draw a less emotional conclusion that you.  I'm able to look at information and separate my brain from the pitter-patter of my heart.  I'm really tired of every post from you being an emotional, informationless attack.  If only your passion for understanding matched your passion for endorphin hits.

As to looking like idiots in comparison to the rest of the world, you have no idea.  Again you are projecting your views onto the rest of the world and drawing comfort.  That is what is truly embarrassing.

Do you know understand the difference between rational discussion and emotional discussion?
[