Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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smedindy

I think Case could slide East if they are 9-1 and Mt. Union stays in the North and Whitewater in the West. Case's SOS could improve when they get to UAA play.


Ralph Turner

Quote from: K-Mack on October 24, 2011, 10:32:29 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 24, 2011, 10:15:03 PM
I know the MAC champion has moved South in the past (2006 at least) to host the ODAC champion

Sound analysis overall. I can't remember which year it was exactly, but the MAC was in the South Region back when it was 11 teams.

In any case, then and now, because playoff brackets don't "have" to be regionally-centered, only bus-trip based as much as possible, conferences like the CC, MAC and PAC will always have the flexibility to go with more than one region. Same with the Illinois, Wisc. and Minn. schools ... could be north or west.

I know you know this, but just saying ... there are lots of possibilities and one loss could turn a perfectly matched team (say, Thomas More vs. Centre in the South) to one on a geographic island.

Also the bunchup in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest means some teams literally could be placed at half of the available sites.
Did JHU bus or fly to Thomas More in 2009 for the second round game?

The site for the official NCAA mileage has it 536 miles.

Ron Boerger

Should they be fortunate enough to go 10-0, Trinity won't be the 8 seed in the South.   History has been that Trinity in that situation would play the #2 ASC qualifier while UMHB gets the #8 flown to them.   Those two winners will play in the next round (unless UMHB somehow loses, not likely). 

K-Mack

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 24, 2011, 11:44:18 PM
Should they be fortunate enough to go 10-0, Trinity won't be the 8 seed in the South.   History has been that Trinity in that situation would play the #2 ASC qualifier while UMHB gets the #8 flown to them.   Those two winners will play in the next round (unless UMHB somehow loses, not likely).

My thought while reading that was that while Trinity probably won't be the 8 seed, they would not be able to avoid a first-round game at UMHB unless there's a second south team within 500 miles that makes it. LC or McMurry are likely but not gimmes ... I could see a 5th-seeded Trinity playing at No. 1 UMHB and us all griping like we do every year.
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Ron Boerger

Guess I'm pretty much assuming McM will win out and get a bid.  The interesting thing will be to see where they are in the regional rankings when those finally come out next week.

If you're a 5, you're usually gonna travel anyway, so should that be the case there won't be as much to whine about  ;)

jknezek

I'm glad I sparked some conversation! One correction to my own post which I actually noticed last night and fixed in a South Region post, the MAC champion in 2006 (Wilkes) did not move into the South, W&L as the 8th seed was moved to the East to play them.

As for the rest of the comments, I think everyone is more or less right. The very last line of my post acknowledged it was real hard to pin anything down this early and I stand by that. I was just playing with some detailed what-ifs and I'm pleased that it got people thinking. There are so many variables and a few that would immediately shred everything I wrote. In fact, I can think of nothing that would crack my already poor crystal ball worse than Wesley losing to Salisbury or Huntingdon. How could Wesley, with a 4-2 D3 record, possibly be given a playoff spot?

I know we haven't had a Texas Subdivision lately, but I see it happening this year. While Trinity will get credit for going 10-0 I think Centre will get them at the end. Just a guess, but 9-1 Trinity as the SCAC2 may not be 8 seed painful, but it makes too much sense for the NCAA. If they go 10-0 I agree they should avoid UMHB, not sure they absolutely will.

I also don't really think the committee worries too much about making an actual 5-8 ranking. 1-4 are important because it sets up the most likely home field advantage. 5-8 are done more or less for travel consideration unless something truly sticks out.

500 miles is a darn long way and provides so much flexibility, outside the West and Texas, that any team in the vast majority of the D3 universe (Maine through NC west to Michigan and down to Missouri) can go almost anywhere.

Finally, the pool of teams capable of winning the playoffs in D3 is probably no more than 8 teams deep, and that's being generous. So if you are the fourth seed or below (to provide some wiggle room) getting to the playoffs is a good goal, winning one game is a great goal, winning two is an amazing season. Anything else is probably a pipe dream and it doesn't matter if you feel you got screwed in your home/away game, travel distance, and seeding. Congratulations on making the playoffs, you've had a great season, and thanks for filling out the bracket (and this is coming from a W&L grad so I share your disappointment at one of those higher seeds blowing you out of the playoffs the way no team has done to you all year...)

ExTartanPlayer

"It becomes a question of who has Case beaten to move them from a failed Pool B bid to a successful Pool C and where do you put them? You really are talking about a team that is claiming this year's John Carroll and upcoming Chicago as signature wins and carrying a loss to a fairly mediocre Rochester team. I think you will find 9-1 teams with better resumes when push comes to shove in the South, North and West."

I agree; I don't think that even a 9-1 CWRU would be worthy of a Pool C bid (assuming that the B goes to Wesley or Huntingdon), although the letter-of-the-law criteria might allow it.  I just can't imagine telling a 9-1 CCIW team, 8-2 UW-Oshkosh, or 8-2 McMurry that they got bumped from the field because a Pool B team looked better on paper...and I think that those are going to be a few of the "last teams in" via Pool C.

As knezek said, CWRU's best wins will be the season-opener over John Carroll and then the UAA teams.  While smedindy is right that the UAA will improve CWRU's SOS rating, I don't think that anyone can realistically argue that Case's resume stacks up to potential 8-2 Pool C teams like UW-Oshkosh or McMurry.

If CWRU were undefeated, I might be singing a different tune; I believe that any undefeated team deserves a shot in the Dance.  But they lost to a very mediocre Rochester team from the Liberty League (which isn't even the best conference in upstate New York).

If CWRU goes 9-1 and somehow gets the official Pool B nod over Wesley/Huntingdon, we may have a stickier situation because of Wesley's very short Division III schedule.  What does one make of that?  They will be 5-1 or 4-2 against D-3 opponents (albeit a schedule with several VERY TOUGH Division III opponents)...what to make of the games vs. NAIA and FCS opponents?
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

K-Mack

Quote from: jknezek on October 25, 2011, 08:53:05 AM
In fact, I can think of nothing that would crack my already poor crystal ball worse than Wesley losing to Salisbury or Huntingdon. How could Wesley, with a 4-2 D3 record, possibly be given a playoff spot?

I think the Salisbury beating Wesley angle is a) very possible and b) very underdiscussed in the threads I've read. Wesley, with a loss already to Kean is treading on thin water with its all-over-the-place schedule.

The flipside is Kean, Salisbury and Huntingdon all winning a bunch of games will help their SoS.
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K-Mack

Dang, you can tread water, or be on thin ice, but I don't think you can tread thin water.

Wesley's fine if it doesn't lose again. Whatever the numbers might say, the committee would have to look the other way if the Wolverines, with their history, win out and have only a close loss in Week 1 to another team in D-III with six wins so far and perhaps a conf. champ/regionally ranked opponent (RRO) or playoff team.

Another loss and Wesley might not have enough in terms of who it has actually beaten. But wins over Salisbury and Huntingdon and a close loss to Kean -- maybe ETBU will even help the OOWP -- would probably make the Wolverines stand up on the criteria.
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jknezek

Quote from: K-Mack on October 25, 2011, 01:46:05 PM

I think the Salisbury beating Wesley angle is a) very possible and b) very underdiscussed in the threads I've read. Wesley, with a loss already to Kean is treading on thin water with its all-over-the-place schedule.


That's because it is hard to imagine a playoffs without Wesley. They have been 6 straight times and semi-finalists the last two years and 4 of the last 6. Even with a loss to Salisbury I think most people would believe they are at least a top 15 team on the field, even if you don't rank them that way based on 2 losses. Beating Salisbury and losing to Huntingdon would seem a strange combination to me, as I believe Salisbury is a better team. Losing to both and being 3-3 in D3 and I can't imagine how you could include Wesley in the field, though I don't rate that as a high possibility.

However, if 4-2 in D3 happens, the committee is going to have to look into secondary criteria to justify putting them in the field. How would the committee treat the loss to Kean? I see on Wesley's D3football.com page that all their D3 games are starred as In-Region, but clearly Kean (East) and ETBU (South) are different regions. Does in/out of region matter to an independent?

wally_wabash

I think the committee has told everybody quite clearly that if you want in, win your games.  8-2 with losses to good teams is by no means an obvious choice over a 9-1 team against a lesser schedule.  If I'm Wesley, I sure as heck don't want to be 8-2 and have to wonder about whether or not the committee cares about how poor CWRU's schedule has been...because, if the past is any indication, they don't. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

K-Mack

QuoteHowever, if 4-2 in D3 happens, the committee is going to have to look into secondary criteria to justify putting them in the field. How would the committee treat the loss to Kean? I see on Wesley's D3football.com page that all their D3 games are starred as In-Region, but clearly Kean (East) and ETBU (South) are different regions. Does in/out of region matter to an independent?

As of a couple years ago, the definition of in-region games changed. Wesley is a South Region team, so ETBU is an in-region game. Also anyone within 200 miles of you is in-region, so Kean counts too, etc.

As far as a two-loss team being taken over a one-loss team, it can happen. But the circumstances would have to be pretty compelling for the committee to do it, moreso than they would have to be for the top 25 to flip such teams. With two losses, the best bet is to hope your competition also has major flaws, whether we mean Pool B or C.

Subjectively, not sure anyone outside of the immediate CWRU circle, would have gripes with 8-2 Wesley getting in over 9-1 Case, given the schedules they play.

But first Wesley has to get to 8-2.
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jknezek

#822
Quote from: K-Mack on October 25, 2011, 07:12:26 PM

As of a couple years ago, the definition of in-region games changed. Wesley is a South Region team, so ETBU is an in-region game. Also anyone within 200 miles of you is in-region, so Kean counts too, etc.


Perfect. This is exactly the information I was missing. Thanks for all the responses today! The intricacies of this stuff are incredible. All the arguments that surround it make me very happy that W&L plays in an AQ conference and only has one simple task... win the ODAC and go to the dance. Everything else is just a cr@pshoot....

And yes, we only got on this Wesley hypothetical because I think it is the biggest possible flaw in my (very early) South predictions. Personally I think Wesley beats Salisbury at home, see my ODAC pick-em, but I do believe it will be a close game!

wesleydad

last week of the season and not much pool b discussion.  does anyone think there is any chance that cwru gets chosen for the pool b if wesley beats huntingdon this weekend?  if so, does wesley have a strong enough case for a pool c?

smedindy

I think Wesley is the "B" if they win. CWRU gets moved to "C"