BB: 2013 South Regionals

Started by D-BAT, April 14, 2013, 04:09:40 PM

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BatDoughnut

Please forgive a novice question. Since the Pool B and C choices are made tomorrow (5/12) and not announced until Monday, will the respective teams that are chosen know tomorrow whether or not they are going? The Memphis regional usually starts on Wednesday. That doesn't leave a great deal of time for teams to make travel and lodging arrangements if they don't find out until 10 AM Monday. Thanks!

D-BAT

#31
Numbers as of May 12th at 2:45am EST:

















(1)   56 Huntingdon            28-8   .778   .5592 (51)     .5273    0.549
(2)   85 Salisbury                25-4   .862   .5320 (114)   .5436    0.536
(3) 163 Millsaps                  31-8   .795   .5182 (157)   .5173    0.518
(4) 149 Bridgewater           32-6   .842   .5150 (170)   .5298    0.520
(5) 201 CNU                  27-12-1   .688   .5091 (196)   .5095    0.509
(6)  63 RMC                   23-14-1   .618   .5512 (63)     .5302    0.544
(?) 193 Shenandoah   24-10   .706   .5041 (217)   .5264    0.512


Out of these 7 teams SU is:

- 5th in Reg'l Winning Percentage
- 7th in OWP
- 5th in OOWP Winning Percentage
- 6th in NCAA-SOS


AND

Out of these 7 teams CNU is:


- 6th in Reg'l Winning Percentage
- 6th in OWP
- 7th in OOWP Winning Percentage
- 7th in NCAA-SOS

Boysofsummer21

D-Bat - Understand the numbers but the only thing the top 5 teams have in common is they all won their regular season championships so that must carry enough weight. But I have never understood how the NCAA comes up with these numbers. The history of the the pool C bids for the south has been if the reg season shamps win their conference tourneys then maybe the second place team gets in otherwise really no shot as I do not think that many people outside the south think much of the teams here. No really fair but the way it has always been.

PNeal7

It's all going to depend on how many teams each regional gets, as well as who gets shipped out to a different regional tournament. My two cents is that Bridgewater and CNU both get in, while SU does not. My 'prediction' is based partially on all of those fancy numbers we toss around, as well as what I'd like to call common sense/baseball sense.

Part of the reason SU has a higher Reg'l Winning % than CNU is that they played 6 less in-region games than CNU did. Now, who knows what would have happened in those 6 games, as they may have won all 6, but it's worth mentioning. Also, what may be considered the top teams on SU's schedule this year were teams they lost to (0-3 vs Bridgewater, 1-1 vs R-MC, 1-1 vs H-SC). Against those same teams, CNU went 2-2-1. As we previously mentioned, CNU won the USAS Reg. Season Title, which generally speaking carries no weight other than in the common/baseball sense of perspective.

In all honesty, you can make a valid case for CNU/SU/BC (I assume BC is in for sure though) to get in or not to get in, and a lot of our debates are based on slight bias (I'll be the first to admit I obviously favor CNU). The main reason I'd like to see CNU get a shot in Regionals is because I truly think they have the staff to win it. The Captains offense was inconsistent for the majority of the year, but when that offense does hit, paired with the pitching staff of CNU, I honestly think they are one of the Top 5-10 teams in the country.

D-BAT

Final numbers at 11pm on May 12th:






(5) 201 CNU                 27-12-1   .688   .5091 (197)   .5097    0.509
(?) 193 Shenandoah       24-10   .706   .5046 (215)   .5269    0.512



D-BAT

QuoteD3Baseball's projected regionals and seedings:

New England Regional at Whitehouse Field; Harwich, Mass.
1. Southern Maine
2. Wheaton, Mass.
3. Endicott
4. Western New England
5. Amherst
6. St. Joseph's, Maine
7. Salem State
8. Daniel Webster

New York Regional at Falcon Park; Auburn, N.Y.
1. Ithaca
2. Cortland State
3. St. John Fisher
4. Farmingdale State
5. Ramapo
6. Eastern Connecticut
7. RPI
8. Moravian

Mid-Atlantic Regional at PNC Field; Moosic, Pa.
1. Kean
2. Keystone
3. Misericordia
4. Rowan
5. Alvernia
6. Johns Hopkins
7. Neumann
8. Bridgewater, Va.

Mideast Regional at Art Nehf Field; Terre Haute, Ind.
1. Marietta
2. Manchester
3. Case Western Reserve
4. Wooster
5. Illinois Wesleyan
6. Washington and Jefferson
7. Mount Union
8. Penn State-Behrend

South Regional at USA Stadium in Millington, Tenn.
1. Huntingdon
2. Salisbury
3. Millsaps
4. Washington U.
5. Franklin and Marshall
6. Penn State-Harrisburg

Central Regional Swanson Stadium/Brunner Field; Moline, Ill.         
1. Webster
2. Augustana
3. Wartburg
4. Benedictine
5. St. Scholastica
6. Randolph-Macon

Midwest Regional at Prucha Field in Whitewater, Wis.           
1. St. Thomas
2. UW-Whitewater
3. UW-Stevens Point
4. Concordia-Chicago
5. Adrian
6. Ripon

West Regional at Tornado Field; Austin, Texas
1. Linfield
2. Cal Lutheran
3. Texas-Tyler
4. Pomona-Pitzer
5. Trinity (Texas)
6. Methodist

With the Mideast being played in Indiana and the South being played in Tennessee, we are stuck having to fly teams westward. If you see the NCAA selecting someone such as Texas Lutheran or Aurora, it's because they want to limit flights. The way we limit flights is by sending two teams on the same flight to the South Regional and the two SCIAC teams on the same flight to Austin. (But we flop Trinity and Pomona-Pitzer to keep the SCIAC teams from meeting in the first round.)

Now, this tournament features teams from a mixture of different regions in a lot of these regionals, which is how the committee has said it wants to do things this year. There's certainly an old-school way to do it as well. What there isn't is a way to do it with fewer than eight teams flying, not with these selections.

And teams are supposed to be selected without geography being part of the consideration.

Stay tuned later tonight for the NCAA's official selections.

PNeal7

Well, the field is set. Best of luck to Methodist and R-MC in the South Regional!

LTBB1971

Is there a regional site up to follow games?


narch

#39

SOS rankTeamReg W%OWP(rank)OOWPNCAA
10Wash U.686.5889 (11).5406.573
37ECSU.709.5630 (63).544.557
48William Patterson.667.5517 (63).5515.552
70SJF.656.5497 (67).5259.542
165Aurora.688.5146 (175).5233.518
192Shenandoah.706.5046 (215).5269.512
194Thomas More.667.5103 (188).5127.511
201CNU.688.5091 (197).5097.509
271Texas Lutheran.714.4821 (276).509.491

the bold teams were selected...and shouldn't have been, in my opinion...the others were not

i post this table primarily to show that neither cnu or su were deserving, when viewed on a national level...in my mind wash u, ecsu, st. john fisher and william patterson were ALL more deserving than either su or cnu

CrashDavisD3

Quote from: narch on May 13, 2013, 01:20:43 PM

SOS rankTeamReg W%OWP(rank)OOWPNCAA
10Wash U.686.5889 (11).5406.573
37ECSU.709.5630 (63).544.557
48William Patterson.667.5517 (63).5515.552
70SJF.656.5497 (67).5259.542
165Aurora.688.5146 (175).5233.518
192Shenandoah.706.5046 (215).5269.512
194Thomas More.667.5103 (188).5127.511
201CNU.688.5091 (197).5097.509
271Texas Lutheran.714.4821 (276).509.491

Has anyone read the 2013 NCAA published rules on picking Pool B/C?   Is everyone assuming 2013 is the same as 2012?

Guess what I dont think the NCAA published the 2013 criteria for Pool  B/C?   

I guess SOS is no longer a big factor....
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

OshDude

I have an early version of the 2013 Manual. The selection criteria were the same this season.

LTBB1971

So Methodist plays Huntington tomorrow at 1PM.  Notes for the game:

1.  Tendency would be to pitch Michael Inman because he's pitched really well lately (Emory, Maryville, Greensboro).  Problem I have is he got lit up vs Huntington already.  My pick would be to go with the smaller RHP Daniel Royer.  He tends to miss bats more than Inman and held up very well in 2 innings vs Huntington back in March.

2.  Speed will be key here - Coach Austin has to be aggressive and give the green light to Kirby, Molosky, Power and Thigpen on the bases.

3.  Must keep Huntington hitters in the ballpark.  Both games in March were not competitive.

narch

#43
LTHSdad - good analysis, but i'd still pitch inman...over their last 5 true starts (discounting mid-week 2 inning stints), inman has been MUCH better than royer and he's MUCH more consistent - royer might throw a gem, or he might get blown up

over that span:

inman has averaged almost 8 ip (he's gone 7 or more 4 times with one 6.2 inning game), giving up 1.11 hits/inning and has a 3.18 era with 12 k's in 39.67 ip

royer has averaged just 4.2 ip (he's gone 7+ just once in that period), giving up 1.11 hits/inning and has a 6.18 era with 16 k's in 23.1 ip

4 of the 5 opponents were the same between the two (inman got gc, while royer got pc), but the disparity is even greater when you pull out the non-common opponents

i feel confident that inman can pitch well in game one, but huntingdon is a tough, tough team...if mu pitches as a team this week the way they did in the conference tournament, they've got a chance to win this regional, but it is a TALL task to pitch that way against this competition

you pitch your #1 in the first game of a regional, if you ask me...

forheavendial4999

I can't see a bottom seed not throwing an guy with 100 innings pitched against the top seed in the first round.