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Messages - Christan Shirk

#106
Men's soccer / Re: Big Dance
November 11, 2019, 10:50:37 PM
I have gotten some insight into some of the surprising selections for pod hosts.

As has been mentioned/explained by others, the reason Amherst, Messiah, Chicago and Johns Hopkins are not hosting the pods in which they are the top seed is because their women's teams are also the top seed in their pods, and following the alternating hosting priority schedule, the women have hosting priority. No big news there.

In past years, as long as geography didn't point the committee in a different direction, the second seed in the pod would typically be chosen to host in these situations. This brought on consistent feedback that when the top two seeds advanced to the second round as expected, it was unfair that the top seed that had earned the right to host, not only didn't get to host, but now had to play at the home of a potentially very strong second round opponent. In other words, the strongest challenger to the top seed advancing to the Sweet 16 was being given the advantage it hadn't earned to use against the team that actually deserved it.

In response to this feedback, the committee this year selected the third seeds in these pod to host, thus making the likely second round match a neutral game.  That doesn't completely make up for the lost hosting advantage, but at least it doesn't hand that advantage to their more likely second round opponent.  This is why Keene State, Oneonta State, Hope and Catholic are hosting pods.


My initial thoughts/observations are as follows:
• In general and on first thought, this seems like a sensible thing to do.  It's nice to try not to penalize a team just because their women's team is also extremely good.
• The strongest challenger in a pod may not actually be who the NCAA's selection criteria says it is.  The third seed by their criteria might actual be the top seeds' biggest threat, so this approach might now always be the better for the top seed. For example, opinion may vary on whether third seed Oneonta State or second seed Babson is the better team and the team with the better chance to stop Messiah from advancing.
• In strong pods with three relatively strong teams, this doesn't make much or any difference for the top seed.  However, it now unfairly helps the third seed have a better chance against the second seed in round one.  Since this is about fairness, is it fair that Ohio Wesleyan has to play at host Hope to open the tournament?  Is it fair that Catholic's chances of advancing got such an unearned/undeserved boost?
#107
Men's soccer / Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
November 11, 2019, 10:49:47 PM
I have gotten some insight into some of the surprising selections for pod hosts.

As has been mentioned/explained by others, the reason Amherst, Messiah, Chicago and Johns Hopkins are not hosting the pods in which they are the top seed is because their women's teams are also the top seed in their pods, and following the alternating hosting priority schedule, the women have hosting priority. No big news there.

In past years, as long as geography didn't point the committee in a different direction, the second seed in the pod would typically be chosen to host in these situations. This brought on consistent feedback that when the top two seeds advanced to the second round as expected, it was unfair that the top seed that had earned the right to host, not only didn't get to host, but now had to play at the home of a potentially very strong second round opponent. In other words, the strongest challenger to the top seed advancing to the Sweet 16 was being given the advantage it hadn't earned to use against the team that actually deserved it.

In response to this feedback, the committee this year selected the third seeds in these pod to host, thus making the likely second round match a neutral game.  That doesn't completely make up for the lost hosting advantage, but at least it doesn't hand that advantage to their more likely second round opponent.  This is why Keene State, Oneonta State, Hope and Catholic are hosting pods.


My initial thoughts/observations are as follows:
• In general and on first thought, this seems like a sensible thing to do.  It's nice to try not to penalize a team just because their women's team is also extremely good.
• The strongest challenger in a pod may not actually be who the NCAA's selection criteria says it is.  The third seed by their criteria might actual be the top seeds' biggest threat, so this approach might now always be the better for the top seed. For example, opinion may vary on whether third seed Oneonta State or second seed Babson is the better team and the team with the better chance to stop Messiah from advancing.
• In strong pods with three relatively strong teams, this doesn't make much or any difference for the top seed.  However, it now unfairly helps the third seed have a better chance against the second seed in round one.  Since this is about fairness, is it fair that Ohio Wesleyan has to play at host Hope to open the tournament?  Is it fair that Catholic's chances of advancing got such an unearned/undeserved boost?
#108
Men's soccer / Re: 2019 South Atlantic Region
November 11, 2019, 04:18:55 PM
SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Washington and Lee
15-2-3
0.594
4-1-2
15-2-3
1
2.
Mary Washington
13-3-4
0.636
2-2-3
13-3-4
3
3.
Christopher Newport
13-2-4
0.603
2-2-3
13-2-4
2
4.
Rowan
11-5-3
0.621
3-1-2
11-5-3
6
5.
Centre
16-3-1
0.577
3-3-0
16-3-1
4
6.
Roanoke
13-2-3
0.555
1-1-2
14-2-3
7
7.
Oglethorpe
14-4-0
0.567
2-3-0
14-4-0
8
8.
Ramapo
11-2-5
0.581
1-1-0
11-2-5
5
#109
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
November 11, 2019, 04:18:10 PM
MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Johns Hopkins
16-2-1
0.627
6-2-1
16-2-1
1
2.
Franklin and Marshall
16-3-0
0.611
6-2-0
16-3-0
2
3.
Messiah
16-2-2
0.579
5-2-0
16-2-2
3
4.
Swarthmore
11-3-3
0.589
2-3-1
11-3-3
4
5.
Gettysburg
11-7-1
0.629
4-5-1
11-7-1
6
6.
Catholic
18-2-1
0.542
4-1-1
18-2-1
7
7.
Dickinson
10-8-0
0.631
4-7-0
10-8-0
8
8.
Haverford
9-6-3
0.621
2-4-2
9-6-3
5
9.
Lycoming
13-7-0
0.580
1-5-0
13-7-0
9
10.
Elizabethtown
11-6-2
0.582
1-5-0
11-6-2
10
#110
Men's soccer / Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
November 11, 2019, 04:15:29 PM
GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
John Carroll
17-2-2
0.600
6-2-1
17-2-2
1
2.
Kenyon
15-1-2
0.573
4-1-1
17-1-2
2
3.
Ohio Wesleyan
13-5-3
0.596
5-4-2
13-5-3
3
4.
Ohio Northern
12-6-2
0.597
4-4-1
13-6-2
4
5.
Otterbein
13-7-0
0.578
3-6-0
13-7-0
6
6.
Hanover
12-6-2
0.542
2-3-0
12-5-2
7
7.
Mount Union
10-4-5
0.551
2-2-2
10-4-5
5
8.
Capital
8-5-5
0.560
1-3-3
8-5-5
8

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Calvin
18-1-1
0.574
4-1-1
19-1-1
1
2.
Chicago
11-1-5
0.633
5-1-3
11-1-5
2
3.
North Park
15-4-1
0.605
2-3-1
15-4-1
3
4.
Hope
14-5-1
0.589
2-4-1
14-5-1
7
5.
Kalamazoo
10-4-2
0.573
3-3-0
11-4-2
4
6.
Wheaton (Ill.)
10-4-4
0.597
1-3-2
10-4-4
6
7.
North Central (Ill.)
11-5-3
0.577
2-2-0
11-5-3
5

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Luther
15-4-1
0.602
4-2-0
16-4-1
1
2.
Central
14-3-2
0.569
3-1-1
14-3-2
2
3.
St. Thomas
12-4-3
0.598
0-4-2
12-4-3
3
4.
Loras
15-6-1
0.598
1-5-0
15-6-1
4
5.
Gustavus Adolphus
17-3-0
0.545
2-1-0
17-3-0
5
6.
St. Norbert
16-4-2
0.549
3-1-0
16-4-2
6
7.
Knox
15-4-2
0.543
1-3-1
15-4-2
7

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
14-3-2
0.570
3-2-2
14-3-2
1
2.
Colorado College
10-6-0
0.576
3-4-0
14-6-0
2
3.
Trinity (Texas)
10-5-2
0.595
3-4-1
11-6-2
3
4.
Texas-Dallas
16-3-2
0.513
2-1-0
17-3-2
4
5.
Hardin-Simmons
12-3-2
0.503
2-1-0
14-3-2
5
6.
Texas Lutheran
12-5-0
0.525
3-3-0
15-5-0
--
#111
Men's soccer / Re: Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes
November 11, 2019, 04:14:34 PM
NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Amherst
14-1-2
0.585
4-1-2
14-1-2
1
2.
Tufts
14-2-2
0.610
8-2-0
14-2-2
2
3.
Connecticut College
10-3-3
0.604
3-3-3
10-3-3
3
4.
Babson
14-5-2
0.568
3-5-1
14-5-2
7
5.
WPI
12-3-4
0.584
2-2-3
12-3-4
5
6.
Middlebury
8-3-7
0.630
2-3-4
8-3-7
6
7.
Williams
8-4-5
0.590
3-4-2
8-4-5
4
8.
Brandeis
10-5-4
0.582
1-4-1
10-5-4
8
9.
Eastern Connecticut
17-3-0
0.518
3-2-0
17-3-0
11
10.
Keene State
15-6-0
0.554
1-3-0
15-6-0
12
11.
St. Joseph's (Maine)
16-2-3
0.514
1-1-0
16-2-3
--
12.
Endicott
12-6-2
0.555
1-4-0
12-6-2
9

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
RPI
14-2-3
0.580
6-2-2
14-2-3
1
2.
Rochester
11-5-1
0.571
4-3-0
11-5-1
3
3.
Hobart
14-4-2
0.562
5-3-1
14-4-2
4
4.
Ithaca
12-5-2
0.564
3-3-1
12-5-2
2
5.
Oneonta State
17-2-0
0.557
4-1-0
17-2-0
6
6.
Vassar
9-6-2
0.582
2-3-0
9-7-2
5
7.
Clarkson
11-5-4
0.556
4-2-3
11-5-4
8
8.
Plattsburgh State
11-8-0
0.585
1-6-0
11-8-0
--

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Johns Hopkins
16-2-1
0.627
6-2-1
16-2-1
1
2.
Franklin and Marshall
16-3-0
0.611
6-2-0
16-3-0
2
3.
Messiah
16-2-2
0.579
5-2-0
16-2-2
3
4.
Swarthmore
11-3-3
0.589
2-3-1
11-3-3
4
5.
Gettysburg
11-7-1
0.629
4-5-1
11-7-1
6
6.
Catholic
18-2-1
0.542
4-1-1
18-2-1
7
7.
Dickinson
10-8-0
0.631
4-7-0
10-8-0
8
8.
Haverford
9-6-3
0.621
2-4-2
9-6-3
5
9.
Lycoming
13-7-0
0.580
1-5-0
13-7-0
9
10.
Elizabethtown
11-6-2
0.582
1-5-0
11-6-2
10

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Washington and Lee
15-2-3
0.594
4-1-2
15-2-3
1
2.
Mary Washington
13-3-4
0.636
2-2-3
13-3-4
3
3.
Christopher Newport
13-2-4
0.603
2-2-3
13-2-4
2
4.
Rowan
11-5-3
0.621
3-1-2
11-5-3
6
5.
Centre
16-3-1
0.577
3-3-0
16-3-1
4
6.
Roanoke
13-2-3
0.555
1-1-2
14-2-3
7
7.
Oglethorpe
14-4-0
0.567
2-3-0
14-4-0
8
8.
Ramapo
11-2-5
0.581
1-1-0
11-2-5
5
#112
Men's soccer / Re: Liberty League
November 11, 2019, 03:46:16 PM
EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 11, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
RPI
14-2-3
0.580
6-2-2
14-2-3
1
2.
Rochester
11-5-1
0.571
4-3-0
11-5-1
3
3.
Hobart
14-4-2
0.562
5-3-1
14-4-2
4
4.
Ithaca
12-5-2
0.564
3-3-1
12-5-2
2
5.
Oneonta State
17-2-0
0.557
4-1-0
17-2-0
6
6.
Vassar
9-6-2
0.582
2-3-0
9-7-2
5
7.
Clarkson
11-5-4
0.556
4-2-3
11-5-4
8
8.
Plattsburgh State
11-8-0
0.585
1-6-0
11-8-0
--
#113
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
November 11, 2019, 10:11:30 AM
Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 11, 2019, 09:19:06 AM
Quote from: rudy on November 11, 2019, 08:37:47 AM
Quote from: LetteroftheLaw on November 11, 2019, 07:54:03 AM
We are just over five and a half hours away from knowing for sure, but who do you think hosts in the mid-Atlantic for the first two rounds this weekend? Seems like Hopkins will host and I could see catholic being sent up to Baltimore with two weaker teams and F&M hosting with messiah and two weaker teams.

Messiah can't host since Messiah women host first weekend. But you will not see F&M playing Messiah the first weekend I doubt. They are both top 3  in the regional rankings so I don't think they would meet until sweet 16 if both are still alive. Perhaps a team like Eastern plays one of them first weekend. Messiah may end up in upstate NY which is common in recent years. Rochester, Hobart, Ithaca. Would be nice to get a crack at any of these teams given first weekend of the year losses to Hobart and Ithaca and last year elite 8 loss to Rochester. We will see soon enough.

Yes they may get sent to NY but doubt they would play a team they already played this year in the opening round. I believe the committee does their best to avoid pairing teams who have already played until at least the second weekend. Definitely not in the first round game and rarely in the second round games but usually for the regions out west.

I have never heard or read of any attempt to avoid re-matches of regular season games.  They try to avoid pairing members of the same conference in the first round.  In fact, and I'd have to look up if it was approved and for what time-frame, but their was a proposal for a pilot to not just try, but to guarantee that conference members do not play in round one.  Obviously out west, absolutely not allowing conference members to meet in the first round could potentially increase travel costs, but I think that is what they want to see in the pilot.
#114
Men's soccer / Re: NESCAC
November 06, 2019, 02:19:29 PM
NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Amherst
14-0-2
0.582
4-0-2
14-0-2
1
2.
Tufts
12-2-2
0.595
6-2-0
12-2-2
2
3.
Connecticut College
10-3-3
0.603
3-3-3
10-3-3
3
4.
Williams
8-3-5
0.580
4-3-2
8-3-5
6
5.
WPI
11-2-4
0.576
1-1-3
11-2-4
8
6.
Middlebury
7-2-7
0.614
1-2-4
7-2-7
4
7.
Babson
12-5-2
0.557
2-5-1
12-5-2
7
8.
Brandeis
9-5-4
0.581
1-4-1
9-5-4
5
9.
Endicott
11-5-2
0.545
1-3-0
11-5-2
11
10.
Bates
9-6-1
0.565
1-5-0
9-6-1
9
11.
Eastern Connecticut
16-2-0
0.493
3-1-0
16-2-0
12
12.
Keene State
13-6-0
0.540
0-3-0
13-6-0
10
#115
Men's soccer / Re: MIAA 2019 Season
November 06, 2019, 02:17:47 PM
CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Calvin
17-1-0
0.574
4-1-0
18-1-0
1
2.
Chicago
10-1-5
0.638
5-1-3
10-1-5
2
3.
North Park
13-4-1
0.607
3-3-1
13-4-1
3
4.
Kalamazoo
10-3-2
0.569
3-2-0
11-3-2
4
5.
North Central (Ill.)
11-5-2
0.580
2-2-0
11-5-2
5
6.
Wheaton (Ill.)
10-4-4
0.597
1-3-2
10-4-4
6
7.
Hope
13-5-0
0.573
1-4-0
13-5-0
7
#116
Men's soccer / Re: American Rivers Conference 2019
November 06, 2019, 02:16:55 PM
NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Luther
13-4-1
0.587
4-2-0
14-4-1
2
2.
Central
14-2-2
0.560
3-1-0
14-2-2
1
3.
St. Thomas
11-3-3
0.579
0-3-2
11-3-3
5
4.
Loras
14-5-1
0.585
1-4-0
14-5-1
3
5.
Gustavus Adolphus
15-3-0
0.530
1-1-0
15-3-0
6
6.
St. Norbert
14-4-2
0.537
1-1-0
14-4-2
4
7.
Knox
14-3-2
0.532
1-2-1
14-3-2
--
#117
Men's soccer / Re: 2019 South Atlantic Region
November 06, 2019, 02:15:43 PM
SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Washington and Lee
13-2-3
0.575
3-1-2
13-2-3
1
2.
Christopher Newport
12-2-3
0.597
3-2-2
12-2-3
2
3.
Mary Washington
12-3-3
0.622
2-2-2
12-3-3
3
4.
Centre
14-3-1
0.572
2-2-0
14-3-1
6
5.
Ramapo
11-1-5
0.579
1-0-1
11-1-5
7
6.
Rowan
10-4-3
0.609
1-1-2
10-4-3
8
7.
Roanoke
13-1-3
0.543
1-0-2
14-1-3
4
8.
Oglethorpe
13-3-0
0.549
2-2-0
13-3-0
5
#118
Men's soccer / Re: CCIW
November 06, 2019, 02:15:06 PM
CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Calvin
17-1-0
0.574
4-1-0
18-1-0
1
2.
Chicago
10-1-5
0.638
5-1-3
10-1-5
2
3.
North Park
13-4-1
0.607
3-3-1
13-4-1
3
4.
Kalamazoo
10-3-2
0.569
3-2-0
11-3-2
4
5.
North Central (Ill.)
11-5-2
0.580
2-2-0
11-5-2
5
6.
Wheaton (Ill.)
10-4-4
0.597
1-3-2
10-4-4
6
7.
Hope
13-5-0
0.573
1-4-0
13-5-0
7
#119
Men's soccer / Re: New England Soccer Discussion
November 06, 2019, 02:14:01 PM
NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Amherst
14-0-2
0.582
4-0-2
14-0-2
1
2.
Tufts
12-2-2
0.595
6-2-0
12-2-2
2
3.
Connecticut College
10-3-3
0.603
3-3-3
10-3-3
3
4.
Williams
8-3-5
0.580
4-3-2
8-3-5
6
5.
WPI
11-2-4
0.576
1-1-3
11-2-4
8
6.
Middlebury
7-2-7
0.614
1-2-4
7-2-7
4
7.
Babson
12-5-2
0.557
2-5-1
12-5-2
7
8.
Brandeis
9-5-4
0.581
1-4-1
9-5-4
5
9.
Endicott
11-5-2
0.545
1-3-0
11-5-2
11
10.
Bates
9-6-1
0.565
1-5-0
9-6-1
9
11.
Eastern Connecticut
16-2-0
0.493
3-1-0
16-2-0
12
12.
Keene State
13-6-0
0.540
0-3-0
13-6-0
10
#120
Men's soccer / Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
November 06, 2019, 02:13:39 PM
GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2019

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
John Carroll
15-2-2
0.596
5-2-1
15-2-2
1
2.
Kenyon
13-1-2
0.565
3-1-1
15-1-2
2
3.
Ohio Wesleyan
12-4-3
0.589
5-3-2
12-4-3
3
4.
Ohio Northern
12-5-2
0.601
4-4-1
13-5-2
4
5.
Mount Union
10-3-4
0.544
2-1-1
10-3-4
5
6.
Otterbein
12-6-0
0.565
2-5-0
12-6-0
6
7.
Hanover
10-4-1
0.528
2-3-0
11-5-1
7
8.
Capital
8-5-4
0.557
1-3-2
8-5-4
8