D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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Ralph Turner

Quote from: crufootball on September 28, 2011, 10:20:18 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 28, 2011, 08:48:08 AM
The fan poll is not particularly geographically diverse, which is a big difference. Ours is intentionally evenly distributed.

Hey Pat, is the D3football.com poll distributed based on where more D3 schools are the 25 votes distributed equally no matter  the amount of D3 schools in the area?
I don't know the exact composition of the voters in the poll, but I would guess that he roughly has 6 pollsters from each of the 4 regions and 1 national/at-large voter.  Also, in other forums he has shared the information that he sends to each voter after each week and it is an impressive amount of information on common opponents, stats, etc.

sju56321

I am part of this fan poll and the big problem I have this week is moving Bethel down because they had a bye week. I don't see how any team should drop because they can't schedule an opponent.
Second, not sure I agree that just because one poll has voters from all over, it is better than another poll, unless you mean that each voter has seen teams play in person in that area, then I understand. Of course those of us in the mid-west probably have not seen Kean play in person, how many D3football voters have? Or how many of the d3football voters from the east coast or west coast have seen UWW-Platteville play in person?
After his second touchdown catch in a record-setting day, St. John's receiver Will Gillach pointed skyward. That, folks, was for former head coach John Gagilardi. The legendary coach of the Johnnies for 60 seasons and 64 in college overall died Sunday. He was 91. His 489 victories are most in college football history in any division.

smedindy

K-Mack,

I give NCC a pass because of the circumstances in their loss to Redlands. From the looks of it, it seemed to be a huge wake-up call. I think I'll be proven right.

I gave ONU a pass on the close win over Otterbein, and I was proven wrong.

Maybe I should flip a coin!

smedindy

Quote from: sju56321 on September 28, 2011, 10:28:14 AM
I am part of this fan poll and the big problem I have this week is moving Bethel down because they had a bye week. I don't see how any team should drop because they can't schedule an opponent.

Think of it this way. In a hypothetical poll.

15. Kenyon
16. North Park
17. Sul Ross St.
18. Kalamazoo
19. Husson

Kenyon wins as they should.
North Park wins a conference game, on the road, closer than was expected.
Sul Ross has a bye
Kalamazoo goes on the road and upsets a team I have highly ranked.
Husson blows out someone at home convincingly in a game pundits had it as close.

Because of the data I may rank them like this now:

13. Kenyon
14. Kalamazoo
15. North Park
16. Husson
17. Sul Ross St.

just because of more data points. It's not that I penalize Sul Ross, but the others below them exceeded expectations. Not ranking them higher would penalize them if I have to keep Sul Ross sacrosanct because of the bye.

Is that clear?

Pat Coleman

Quote from: crufootball on September 28, 2011, 10:20:18 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 28, 2011, 08:48:08 AM
The fan poll is not particularly geographically diverse, which is a big difference. Ours is intentionally evenly distributed.

Hey Pat, is the D3football.com poll distributed based on where more D3 schools are the 25 votes distributed equally no matter  the amount of D3 schools in the area?

It would be silly for us to have a voter in Colorado considering there are no schools there, so yes, the geography is tied to where there are actually schools. There are 25 voters and slightly more than 25 conferences -- the conferences with more playoff success are the ones represented on the panel. A handful of conferences don't have voters.
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sju56321

Ok Smedindy I get that example-but tell me how that played out here last week?
Mary Hardin-Baylor beat Hardin-Simmmons, then ranked #20-as expected.
Linfield beat an 0-1 team by a big score, expected.
Wheaton beat an 0-3 by a decent score.
Really doesn't work in the example you provided-but I do get that if the #5 beat the #1 team, and #4 is on a bye then can be jumped by #5. Maybe I should have not have added that a team should not drop on a bye, but if the teams below them are playing lower ranked teams, then I don't see how they should fall. If #4 is on a bye, and #5 beats #6, why would #5 jump #4?
After his second touchdown catch in a record-setting day, St. John's receiver Will Gillach pointed skyward. That, folks, was for former head coach John Gagilardi. The legendary coach of the Johnnies for 60 seasons and 64 in college overall died Sunday. He was 91. His 489 victories are most in college football history in any division.

smedindy

sju - wasn't getting into specifics, but just positing a theory.

Also, the voting membership has been fluid. This week, mt. Union lost a first place vote because the voter didn't cast his ballot. That could have affected the voting.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: K-Mack on September 28, 2011, 12:40:35 AM
Also the fan poll comes out later in the week. Any chance the official poll influences it? I try, for instance, in my play of the week votes, to watch the videos before I read my fellow voters choices. Maybe a psych major could speak to this, but don't we like to think like people we like and respect think? (assuming fan poll likes and respects d3 poll here lol)
I generally try to arrange my ballot Sat night/Sun morning, then leave it till Sunday night, make a couple alterations and send it in.
By doing it early I don't let the official poll influence me per se, but I will look afterwards and compare to see who is ranked who I don't have and who is getting some votes for teams to possibly add to my "watch list"

Quote from: K-Mack on September 28, 2011, 12:40:35 AM
2) No way Fisher should get 6 votes in your poll and Hobart 0.
I don't even have Fisher on my watch list right now while Hobart is. Another team with no votes that I think should get a little attention is Albright.
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FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: sju56321 on September 28, 2011, 12:02:47 PM
Really doesn't work in the example you provided-but I do get that if the #5 beat the #1 team, and #4 is on a bye then can be jumped by #5. Maybe I should have not have added that a team should not drop on a bye, but if the teams below them are playing lower ranked teams, then I don't see how they should fall. If #4 is on a bye, and #5 beats #6, why would #5 jump #4?
If team A is ranked #5 and their body of work for the season is improved to be better than team B ranked #4 because they beat the #6 team then they certainly should be jumped ahead. If the following week team B beats say a team ranked 18th and team A beats a winless team, team B could possibly jump back ahead. The poll should be fluid rather than just this team lost and falls down to there and every team moves up 1.
I've had a team win and still fall out out of the poll. My 4-5-6 order has been different in each of the last 3 polls without anyone losing.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

sju56321

Smedindy-ok, but I appreciate your initial response, as it exposed a flaw in my thinking-just wan't sure I missed something obvious this past weekend, which could have happened being that I saw first-hand the debacle at SJU!
After his second touchdown catch in a record-setting day, St. John's receiver Will Gillach pointed skyward. That, folks, was for former head coach John Gagilardi. The legendary coach of the Johnnies for 60 seasons and 64 in college overall died Sunday. He was 91. His 489 victories are most in college football history in any division.

MasterJedi

Quote from: sju56321 on September 28, 2011, 10:28:14 AM
I am part of this fan poll and the big problem I have this week is moving Bethel down because they had a bye week. I don't see how any team should drop because they can't schedule an opponent.
Second, not sure I agree that just because one poll has voters from all over, it is better than another poll, unless you mean that each voter has seen teams play in person in that area, then I understand. Of course those of us in the mid-west probably have not seen Kean play in person, how many D3football voters have? Or how many of the d3football voters from the east coast or west coast have seen UWW-Platteville play in person?

IDK about that either, Bethel stayed in the #4 spot for me, a bye with no major changes below them doesn't change anything IMO.

bleedpurple

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 28, 2011, 12:16:03 AM
Quote from: bleedpurple on September 28, 2011, 12:03:03 AM
Otterbein lost to Heidelberg by 21 points.  Then ONU lost by 20 points to the Muskies.

Actually, these things both happened at the same time. If Otterbein had lost to Heidelberg like that last week, it may have given a better indication how overrated ONU was. But to list them in sequence like this suggests facts that were not in evidence when the poll was voted on.

Actually, in this post, I was responding to the question as to whether Musky is likely to give Mount a good game this year.  I was just citing evidence that perhaps their win over ONU wasn't as impressive as it looks on the surface. My point wasn't really about the ranking.

bleedpurple

Quote from: K-Mack on September 28, 2011, 12:40:35 AM
2) No way Fisher should get 6 votes in your poll and Hobart 0.

FYI....One voter ranked Fisher 20th.

AUKaz00

FWIW, I'm the knucklehead who didn't get his Mount-leading ballot in this week, but if I had Hobart would have had 7 points.
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02 Warhawk

Quote from: bleedpurple on September 28, 2011, 12:52:34 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on September 28, 2011, 12:40:35 AM
2) No way Fisher should get 6 votes in your poll and Hobart 0.

FYI....One voter ranked Fisher 20th.

Did you ever get a chance to tally-up where everyone is voting from?

Region/Conference?