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Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
« on: April 09, 2021, 10:33:17 am »
There will certainly be as always a few NESCAC teams in the top 25 as the season evolves, but there isn't great information on who is coming back yet, at least not for the top contenders, and it's a transition year in many ways for NESCAC, with three new coaches including at two of the top-tier programs (Tufts and Amherst).
Tufts supposedly has all its key seniors returning. If so, Tufts (even with a coaching vacancy - the retired coach was probably better at recruiting than game management, in any event) should definitely be very highly-ranked to start the season, as it graduated only one senior from the 2019-2020 title-contender squad and returns (if rumors are correct) NESCAC POY Luke Rogers, who will be a 5th year senior and made dramatic strides every year on the court. He is one of the most gifted big men I've seen in D3 in terms of his footwork and post moves. That's the only NESCAC team I can imagine being a top 5-10 type of team to start the season, and maybe even the only NESCAC team in the top 25 ... at least to start the year. But whoever the new coach is, if that senior class returns, there is enough talent on hand to contend for a national title.
Amherst has a fantastic backcourt returning in a presumably healthy Grant Robinson (he was a shell of himself in 2020) and Garrett Day, both of whom will be fifth-year seniors and first-team all-league caliber players when healthy. And there is plenty of talent, albeit largely unproven, around them. But it loses its three frontcourt starters and will, of course, have a new coach. I could see Amherst as a top 25 team eventually, a lot of perimeter talent there, but probably not to start the season.
Middlebury may have a few seniors back for a fifth year, but that is probably not enough to compensate for a very shallow pool (especially be Midd's standards) of underclass talent. Unless all five key seniors return (and Midd fans have been quiet, but my sense is that at least a few are not), I don't see Middlebury as a top-25 team.
Colby has a lot of good young talent but probably loses too much to repeat last season's success, they will be solid but I'd be surprised to see them in the top 25.
Williams is a big question mark but has a ton of young talent on the roster and I think should be ready to return to top 25 contention (though is likely a year away from being a top 10 type of team) after a down season. The Ephs employed a young rotation including a great frosh class, which suffered some hard knocks with a ton of early floor time in 2019-20, but which started to come together very late in the season. I think two years of development for the seven underclassmen who were rotation players by season's end, plus a tremendous 2024 recruiting class coming in (including three post grads, who will essentially be college juniors next years physically so should be far more ready than typical first-years) should make Williams very competitive for a top-three spot in NESCAC next year, and a powerhouse in the next few years thereafter.
It's hard to imagine anyone else in NESCAC sniffing the top 25 next year. Wesleyan could be a dark horse as it graduated no one of consequence and its top seniors are taking a fifth year, but losing Austin Hutcherson to transfer was such a blow to that program, and Wesleyan has a long way to rise from 2020's rough performance. Hamilton no longer has Kena Gilmour, and no one else in the league returns a huge amount of talent.
In sum, my VERY speculative guess at this point to start the year: Tufts is at worst a top-10 team, maybe top-5, nationally, no on else is in the top 25. By the end of the year, at least one, maybe two, from the Amherst/Williams/Midd group cracks the top 25, but none of them warrant that type of recognition to start the season (barring Midd bringing all its seniors back, which, again, I have not heard is likely happening).
Looking at New England more broadly, St. Joseph's is clearly a top-10 worthy team (they hung with Yeshiva despite missing their best guy due to, I presume, injury, and return either everyone or all but one guy). I think WPI is a lock for the top 20, seem to be the class of NEWMAC headed into next year with all the guys that Springfield and Babson have lost, and WPI keeps bringing in highly-regarded recruits. I can't think of anyone beyond those two and Tufts who are remotely within Top 25 contention to start the year, but I'm sure someone out there has two years of recruits coming in who is currently off the radar ... perhaps Endicott could be interesting, if McDevitt (and maybe a few other seniors) is returning for a fifth year, but otherwise, not enough up front.
Tufts supposedly has all its key seniors returning. If so, Tufts (even with a coaching vacancy - the retired coach was probably better at recruiting than game management, in any event) should definitely be very highly-ranked to start the season, as it graduated only one senior from the 2019-2020 title-contender squad and returns (if rumors are correct) NESCAC POY Luke Rogers, who will be a 5th year senior and made dramatic strides every year on the court. He is one of the most gifted big men I've seen in D3 in terms of his footwork and post moves. That's the only NESCAC team I can imagine being a top 5-10 type of team to start the season, and maybe even the only NESCAC team in the top 25 ... at least to start the year. But whoever the new coach is, if that senior class returns, there is enough talent on hand to contend for a national title.
Amherst has a fantastic backcourt returning in a presumably healthy Grant Robinson (he was a shell of himself in 2020) and Garrett Day, both of whom will be fifth-year seniors and first-team all-league caliber players when healthy. And there is plenty of talent, albeit largely unproven, around them. But it loses its three frontcourt starters and will, of course, have a new coach. I could see Amherst as a top 25 team eventually, a lot of perimeter talent there, but probably not to start the season.
Middlebury may have a few seniors back for a fifth year, but that is probably not enough to compensate for a very shallow pool (especially be Midd's standards) of underclass talent. Unless all five key seniors return (and Midd fans have been quiet, but my sense is that at least a few are not), I don't see Middlebury as a top-25 team.
Colby has a lot of good young talent but probably loses too much to repeat last season's success, they will be solid but I'd be surprised to see them in the top 25.
Williams is a big question mark but has a ton of young talent on the roster and I think should be ready to return to top 25 contention (though is likely a year away from being a top 10 type of team) after a down season. The Ephs employed a young rotation including a great frosh class, which suffered some hard knocks with a ton of early floor time in 2019-20, but which started to come together very late in the season. I think two years of development for the seven underclassmen who were rotation players by season's end, plus a tremendous 2024 recruiting class coming in (including three post grads, who will essentially be college juniors next years physically so should be far more ready than typical first-years) should make Williams very competitive for a top-three spot in NESCAC next year, and a powerhouse in the next few years thereafter.
It's hard to imagine anyone else in NESCAC sniffing the top 25 next year. Wesleyan could be a dark horse as it graduated no one of consequence and its top seniors are taking a fifth year, but losing Austin Hutcherson to transfer was such a blow to that program, and Wesleyan has a long way to rise from 2020's rough performance. Hamilton no longer has Kena Gilmour, and no one else in the league returns a huge amount of talent.
In sum, my VERY speculative guess at this point to start the year: Tufts is at worst a top-10 team, maybe top-5, nationally, no on else is in the top 25. By the end of the year, at least one, maybe two, from the Amherst/Williams/Midd group cracks the top 25, but none of them warrant that type of recognition to start the season (barring Midd bringing all its seniors back, which, again, I have not heard is likely happening).
Looking at New England more broadly, St. Joseph's is clearly a top-10 worthy team (they hung with Yeshiva despite missing their best guy due to, I presume, injury, and return either everyone or all but one guy). I think WPI is a lock for the top 20, seem to be the class of NEWMAC headed into next year with all the guys that Springfield and Babson have lost, and WPI keeps bringing in highly-regarded recruits. I can't think of anyone beyond those two and Tufts who are remotely within Top 25 contention to start the year, but I'm sure someone out there has two years of recruits coming in who is currently off the radar ... perhaps Endicott could be interesting, if McDevitt (and maybe a few other seniors) is returning for a fifth year, but otherwise, not enough up front.