FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

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HSCTiger fan

#28500
Quote from: wally_wabash on September 02, 2014, 09:51:59 PM
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 02, 2014, 09:11:41 PM
A few Wildcats from Oregon might argue differently about your contention that "None of these teams had the Defense you will face on Saturday."  Even if that statement is true, it's also a safe contention that last season Wabash did not face a defense as good as HSCs.

This isn't really the case.  Wittenberg's 2013 defense is pretty comparable to H-SC's 2013 defense- and Witt played games against Butler and the offensive juggernaut that was Kevin Burke. 

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 02, 2014, 09:11:41 PM
HSC is not like most teams.  They seldom win time of possession, they often get out rushed, they typically turnover the ball more than their opponents, last year thru 7 games everyone held their breath on extra points because the kicker had missed about as many as he had made, but somehow like you pointed out they simply out score their opponents.

In today's football, TOP is a meaningless stat and we should probably start disregarding it entirely.  Additionally, most teams that have AA quarterbacks and receivers will probably get out rushed by choice.  Why run a bunch when your best players operate in the passing game?  The turnovers...now that's a real issue.  H-SC has enough offensive talent to overcome takeaways against teams that are overmatched.  Against good teams though?  You can't give those possessions away.  What was it- 8 turnovers against CNU?  And the two second half fumbles against Linfield cost the Tigers the game.  Can't do that business against good teams.  That's what makes them good teams- they'll take your mistakes and beat you horribly with them.  I've got a post coming later this week with a big ol' game breakdown but as a teaser, the whole turnover thing plays a prominent role.

Wally I agree. Turnovers do kill teams and your right about good teams. But HSC has lost the turnover battle many times and still found a way to win. At Randolph Macon last year HSC won with 5 turnovers. I get it RMC is not Wabash.  Still my assessment is accurate - HSC finds a way to win most of the time despite turnovers. Sometimes like CNU last year it crushes you. Last year HSC was upset by Shenandoah.  It wasn't the turnovers - only had 1 which resulted in zero points.  It was 3 missed extra points and a blocked punt. I'm certainly not suggesting turnovers are not important. Simply HSC has a knack for overcoming them.

Certainly Witt was comparable statistically on defense but not better. If HSC only allows 17 points they will win.

Additionally, HSC is surely going to throw the football. But this team returns its 2 leading rushers from last season. They are both in the backfield at the same time. Nance and Macko combined for over 1100 yards last year and 25 TDs.  As a team HSC ran for 1805 and 30 TDs.  HSC is NOT like most teams with AA quarterbacks and receivers.   We have players at every position.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

wally_wabash

Circling back to an earlier topic...

Per Bluffton's game notes, Dominic Orsini is the new OWU QB.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

While I wait for other game notes to get out there, I pieced this together...

Wabash's average starting field position for 2013.  This is ridiculous.  Could have been more ridiculous if I included "drives" that started in an opponent's endzone, which I didn't. 

Hanover - W49
Denison - W35
Allegheny - W46
Wooster - W44
OWU - W39
Kenyon - W37
Oberlin - W49
Hiram - 50
Witt - W20
DePauw - W35

Season average- W40

I've highlighted Kenyon and Witt because those are the two teams that Wabash didn't turnover at all.  Witt is also the only team last year that didn't allow Wabash to start at least one drive in plus territory.  Witt is also the only team that beat Wabash.  This is not a coincidence. 

That's crazy.  They started, on average, every drive from their 40 yard line.  Think about that. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

BashDad

#28504
"We are really concerned about their quarterback. You can't win a national championship without getting great quarterback play. They have the type of quarterback in (Nash) Nance that you can win a championship with. He is experienced and talented and that's a tough combination to prepare for defensively. Defensively they're very athletic. They are quick and like to run around to do multiple things. They can put pressure on the quarterback. That makes them difficult to handle from our offensive standpoint, as well."

Love this quote from Raeburn for two reasons. One, the we-all-know-that-but-its-fun-when-its-confirmed-by-your-head-coach feeling gets me very excited for Saturday. Hooray for a day spent rooting against a National Championship caliber quarterback. That's as good a holiday as any when you have a good, potentially unprecedented-at-your-program defense.

Two, it's comforting to know that he thinks of the position in those terms. Because Putko.

tigerfanalso

I have no idea how the game plays out but you guys will enjoy watching HSC's QB/WR combo. If Wabash stops them you deserve to win the game. We'll see what happens.

bashgiant

I remember the week leading up to the first game. Sleepless nights, pacing, and not being able to focus on much more than the start of the season.

GO BASH!

DPU3619

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 03, 2014, 10:39:50 AM
While I wait for other game notes to get out there, I pieced this together...

Wabash's average starting field position for 2013.  This is ridiculous.  Could have been more ridiculous if I included "drives" that started in an opponent's endzone, which I didn't. 

Hanover - W49
Denison - W35
Allegheny - W46
Wooster - W44
OWU - W39
Kenyon - W37
Oberlin - W49
Hiram - 50
Witt - W20
DePauw - W35

Season average- W40

I've highlighted Kenyon and Witt because those are the two teams that Wabash didn't turnover at all.  Witt is also the only team last year that didn't allow Wabash to start at least one drive in plus territory.  Witt is also the only team that beat Wabash.  This is not a coincidence. 

That's crazy.  They started, on average, every drive from their 40 yard line.  Think about that.

This is why I believe turnover margin is the most important statistic. If you get a boatload of turnovers, some of them are bound to be in good enough field position to score. That doesn't have anything to do with how good your offense is.

bashbrother

Initial Comments on 2-deep -

Woods at Corner.... Nice Holton Walker match up.   HH not showing up on D - 2-deep...(Bet we see him out there at some point)  Klembara starting inside backer (what a talent)..... We have big and talented running backs....   The Buresh family is awesome!.....   Anxious to see these new receivers.

More later.
Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

sigma one

Scanning the Wabash and Hampden-Sydney two-deep line-ups, I notice that Shaq Thomas, a sophomore last year who led H-SC in sacks with 5.5, is not listed.  A quick check of the H-SC roster; he does not appear.  The o-line has nice height, good size.  Walker is listed at 220 lbs.   Two nice-sized d-tackles.
     Those who know H-SC well might notice other aspects, changes of positiion, additions, etc.  I know the punter and kicker, both injured last year, return.  Others?
     On the Wabash side, no seniors starting on the offensive line, and three freshmen as backup o-linemen. Dickerson, Wabash record holder in the decathlon, listed as a starting receiver.  Ethan Buresh--yet another of the Buresh brothers-- starting at LB; also Wilkins listed at LB, and Klembara, returning to defense after moving over successfully to running back last year, at ILB.  Woods moved to corner--nice size there.  Austin Brown at safety is listed at 230 lbs.  Also, Cmehil moved from corner to safety.  (It's pronounced Shmay hill, I think.)  The back-up LBs--Karns, Broecker, Bauer, Ludwig--could I am convinced start for many of the teams Wabash will play.

wally_wabash

I may have missed it, but AJ Clark, who was really good on Saturday, is another LB/DB hybrid kind of guy and he isn't even on the sheet.  So. Many. Dudes.  Watch for him on special teams though.  He'll get in the box score on Saturday. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HSCTiger fan

Quote from: sigma one on September 03, 2014, 03:50:34 PM
Scanning the Wabash and Hampden-Sydney two-deep line-ups, I notice that Shaq Thomas, a sophomore last year who led H-SC in sacks with 5.5, is not listed.  A quick check of the H-SC roster; he does not appear.  The o-line has nice height, good size.  Walker is listed at 220 lbs.   Two nice-sized d-tackles.
     Those who know H-SC well might notice other aspects, changes of positiion, additions, etc.  I know the punter and kicker, both injured last year, return.  Others?
     On the Wabash side, no seniors starting on the offensive line, and three freshmen as backup o-linemen. Dickerson, Wabash record holder in the decathlon, listed as a starting receiver.  Ethan Buresh--yet another of the Buresh brothers-- starting at LB; also Wilkins listed at LB, and Klembara, returning to defense after moving over successfully to running back last year, at ILB.  Woods moved to corner--nice size there.  Austin Brown at safety is listed at 230 lbs.  Also, Cmehil moved from corner to safety.  (It's pronounced Shmay hill, I think.)  The back-up LBs--Karns, Broecker, Bauer, Ludwig--could I am convinced start for many of the teams Wabash will play.

Other changes - Martin is starting at OLB. He started there last year a few games due to injury to Stack. Stack moves into from OLB to MLB slot.  Walker is a beast - that did not change. I just like saying it.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

bashbrother

#28512
Pretty cool image from Wabash College's Facebook Page

I didn't realize Wabash had a drone..  ;)
Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

waf56

Quote from: bashbrother on September 03, 2014, 07:39:58 PM
Pretty cool image from Wabash College's Facebook Page

I didn't realize Wabash had a drone..  ;)

You better be up to date on your donations or they will find you!

It is an awesome picture though.
What I lack in size, I make up for with my lack of speed.

wally_wabash

Alright, this is big time stuff.  My thoughts...

We've spent a lot of time dissecting 2013 results and stats and under normal circumstances that's probably not a great use of time, but this is different.  Both of these teams return such a large percentage of their 2013 starting units that what happened in 2013 is relevant.  These are the same teams, just a year older.  We can look backward and have a pretty reasonable expectation of what we'll see on Saturday. 

H-SC accumulates yardage through the air by about a 2:1 ratio.  They should.  Their best players are a quarterback and a wide receiver.  We've seen Wabash teams in the past operate this way.  We've seen Witt teams operate this way.  You play to your strengths, and H-SC is no different.  They're going to throw it around.  It goes without saying (but I'm going to say it anyway) that Wabash is going to need to get Nance off his spot and get him to look somewhere other than Walker.  If those two get to play catch, it will be curtains for the Little Giants.  The situation where Walker catches 15 balls for whatever unearthly amount of yardage comes along with those 15 receptions will not do.  BJ will have to get creative with his pressure in the front seven (he's good at that) and those guys will have to win.  Wabash can't bring pressure and not disrupt the play.  There aren't enough guys left in the defensive backfield to defend what's coming if that play doesn't get disrupted.  It doesn't have to be a sack all of the time, or most of the time really...it just has to get Nance to throw out of uncomfortable positions.  And even if Wabash does this, he's still going to make some plays.  He's that good.  Wabash's DBs can NOT cheat.  When he rolls or gets flushed, those guys have to stay and cover as long as they possibly can and let AJ and the LBs clean stuff up.  What happens when our DBs cheat?  The Witjes bomb goes off.  We don't need that again anytime soon. 

When Wabash has the ball, they're going to pound it.  Wabash averaged 5.0 ypc last year, which my advanced stats guys tell me is good.  Holmes and Zurek are a pretty nasty little duo.  The offensive line, the right side of which are new to the starting lineup, will have to do a great job here.  And eventually H-SC will cheat the run and it will open up some fun things down the field in the play action game.  There will be chances here for Putko to get some big plays.  He can NOT miss these.  Long drives will not be easy.  When the opportunity arises and HH gets behind the defense, Putko can't overthrow.  Or under throw.  Wabash needs these plays on Saturday. 

We can find trends from the 2013 data on both teams, but we'll cut to the chase here.  The tipping point when we go through that information is the turnover margin.  Hampden-Sydney has been prone to turning it over.  Wabash not so much.  And the Wabash defense has proven itself very skilled at taking the ball away from the other offense.  If Wabash gets to +2 or +3 on the turnover scale, the Tigers are probably in big trouble.  They've taken their best players off the field, and they've put Wabash on shortened fields with great opportunities to score.  That was the recipe for success in 2013 for Wabash.  It will be their recipe again in 2014. 

Now, about 2013.  The one game Wabash had trouble with was the game that made them defend both a very capable passer and a big, tall receiver.  Wittenberg went to the Cunningham well often in 2013 and as good as Wabash's defense was, sometimes  you just can not overcome a physical mismatch like that.  Not against players skilled and experienced enough to exploit it over and over.  It's not a coincidence that we traded a 5-7 corner (an all-league corner at that) for a 6-1 corner.  Woods switching to the CB spot has to be a response to the Witt game last year with eye toward preventing the same on Saturday.  Mr. Woods will be in the spotlight on Saturday and a lot of Wabash's success will depend on how well he blankets Walker.  This is some serious hombre y hombre stuff going on here.  It's the kind of singular matchup challenge that we don't get to see too often here. 

Now, I have been a tad dismissive of Hampden-Sydney's result in Oregon last fall.  Nance was put under wraps for the last 40 minutes of the game (14-27, 108 yards, 1 INT, 1 fumble).  Tiger fans would be remiss to not see that this is what can happen to even the best quarterbacks playing against top shelf defenses.  On the flip side, Wabash fans would be remiss to not acknowledge the first 20 minutes of that game (16-24, 281 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush TD).  Anybody that can drop three hundo and three TDs on a Linfield defense in 20 minutes commands respect.  Know that this is his potential- he CAN do that on Saturday if Wabash doesn't handle their business at the LOS.   

Prediction- I think this is going to be a little bit lower scoring game than most expect.  I think the new OL units are going to be challenged and it's going to be problematic for both offenses.  New offensive lines are ripe in week one for drive killing mistakes like false starts and holding penalties.  I expect some frustration by the offenses.  The game hinges on turnovers and field position.  I think Wabash gets their turnovers-three I think- and grinds out a home win here something in the 21-17 range. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire