2019 Great Lakes Region

Started by Domino1195, August 31, 2019, 08:46:54 AM

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Domino1195

#135
Rust Belt Quad  ;) ;)

Temperatures in Ohio not expected to get above 35-37 degrees for the week - might reach a balmy 40 degrees on Sunday. Kenyon matches at 11am and 1:30; JCU matches at 1pm and 3:30pm. My plan is to see the two games at Kenyon and watch the Centre-K'Zoo game in a warm bar.

Kenyon Group:

Kenyon vs PSU-B: Kenyon's 17-1-2 record is very impressive when you consider how young this team is. Only 5 seniors, two of whom really haven't had much of an impact on the team's performance (senior John Penas played in the last three games – 60+ minutes against OWU – having missed most of the year with injuries. Could be an asset during the tournament). 60% of the scoring comes from 4 sophomores and 2 freshman. Leading scorer, freshman Alti Hrafnkelsson (9 goals), has yet to start a game. Kenyon has scored the most of any team in the RBQ.

Kenyon has used dozens of starting line-ups (no player started in all 20 games, only one player played in all 20 games) and has made deep use of their bench.
This team also has the fewest clean-sheets of any Kenyon team in recent memory – only 8.  Mistakes, miscommunication with backs and GK – leading to poor goals against (Wilmington, Wabash come to mind).  Another sore point is penalties, with Kenyon converting 4 of 7 YTD.  This conversion rate won't cut it if a game needs PK's to decide.

Penn St. Behrend is a difficult team to assess. There is that 19-1 W/L record, scoring 69 goals while only conceding 13 (second lowest total behind Kalamazoo's 11 for RBQ teams).  And then there's the SOS of .483 and only one game played against a ranked opponent, an OT win away at Mount Union.  But in that game PSU-B was every bit the equal to MTU:  great strength in midfield, high pressure (led to a MTU turnover and PSU-B's first goal) and lines that stayed connected. And in 2018 they took a similar team to JCU and beat the hosts 1-0 in double OT.
In the one game they lost this year Medaille scored off a headed corner kick. In the Baldwin Wallace game they conceded two PK's in that 3-2 win.  But since the first two games of the year, where they gave up 5 goals, they have only allowed 8 goals in the next 18 games.

What to watch for:
Kenyon will possibly face two turf opponents this first weekend.  Given the incredibly dry conditions in Ohio grass fields played like turf for most of the year, but not any longer.  The OWU-Kenyon game was marked by many players slipping and falling, including players taking goal kicks.  Studs over molded cleats would be recommended.  Offense has been clicking last 4 games – yes, two strong results against Oberlin, but scoring 16 goals over this span can fuel optimism for their forwards. PSU-B has played maybe 3 games on grass this year.  If they press Kenyon high they could force one of those turnovers that seem to occur once a game for Kenyon.  If PSU-B gets a lead they will sit-in and defy Kenyon to break them down. This game could go to OT and need PK's to decide the winner (PSU-B is 6 of 8 from the spot this year).

UR vs Hanover:  I admit I only saw UR once this year - the entire game against JCU. Good wins against Vassar, Hobart and Brandeis, not so good losses against Cortland, Wash U and CMU.  Hanover beat Otterbein, Capital, lost to OWU 2-1 - all at Hanover, and are winners of 9 straight - tied the championship game against RHIT, needing PK's to get here.  Hanover is a great group of complementary players - leading goal scorer Luke Eppler (9 goals) - but do not play well away from home, especially against quality opponents.  The 20 goals conceded is the most of the RBQ teams and they really haven't put away teams that they should have handled better.  After conceding an OG early in the Spalding game they struggled to get the equalizer in a game where I thought they were much better than their opponent.
Interesting to note is Hanover and UR are the least carded teams in the RBQ: Hanover only 12 times, UR 16 (UR has only played 17 games this year however).  Hanover is 5th lowest in the country in fouls committed.

What to watch for:
If UR wins (I think they will win 2-0) and Kenyon wins (I think its a 2-1 game either way but I'll tip the home team), will a UR vs Kenyon game be subtitled: The Battle of Paul Newman's Tuition Dollars???

Ommadawn

Quote from: Domino1195 on November 13, 2019, 02:41:34 PM
If UR wins (I think they will win 2-0) and Kenyon wins (I think its a 2-1 game either way but I'll tip the home team), will a UR vs Kenyon game be subtitled: The Battle of Paul Newman's Tuition Dollars???

:) Love it!  And thank you for keeping us all so well-informed on the Great Lakes region all year long.

PaulNewman

#137
Domino, imho, that post above is your finest hour on the site.  We don't always agree but I am with you 100% on your analysis above.  And we agree on Kenyon's bug-a-boo....drives me insane...I could not believe how many ridiculous, unforced errors in a row they had versus OWU.   And the at least one a game theme was true in their narrow loss Elite 8 appearances and also against CWRU last year before ending up on the wrong side of PKs.  And Kenyon honestly would have had a better chance against Calvin than CWRU. 

But I digress....Kenyon versus UR is not a close call or call at all.  I love Kenyon.  I like Rochester.  I would pick Kenyon for myself over Davidson right now, even with Davidson enjoying a slight edge in prestige.  Just love the feel of the whole place and that would be true if I had never seen a soccer game there or had a kid play there.  IMO just a magical, magical place and a phenomenal spot to attend college.  And to think, my kid did science there which has worked out well for him, even though I personally would have been all over the humanities, philosophy and English programs.

My daughter ending up at UR is an interesting story.  Rochester is not one of the first schools folks in Eastern Mass think about, and until you know more about it many would ask "Why in the world would you want to go to Rochester?"  I had actually "discovered" UR the year before when I was thinking about the perfect school for another kid (who ended up not going because he got off the wait list at Amherst).  I was very interested in UR being in her top 5 but in the end I was devastated when she picked UR over Macalester, Bryn Mawr and NYU. 

Side trauma story....after the 2014 Sweet 16 debacle with OWU we (and we was wife, son, his girlfriend and daughter) drove from Gambier to Rochester to drop off daughter at school (about six hours) and then continued on through the night to get back home (another seven hours).  What a miserable, depressing trip.  The year before we drove home from Grantham, PA...devastating in its own way (and I wonder how the Kenyon future might have played out if the Lords had pulled out that 2013 game)....but it was still exhilarating as that was the real start of the Kenyon run (along with the wins over ONU who had been national runnerups the year before and highly rated Wheaton at Wheaton and of course Wheaton were national runnerups that next year of 2014).  Plus, it was too COLD to stay in Grantham...coldest I've ever been at a D3 soccer game.

Domino1195

Except for using "complimentary" vs "complementary" - thanks for your compliment !  There's a freshman on the team from Scotland - dad is a lovely man - Sean. Doesn't speak a word of English although that seems to be the language he's using. I'll be standing next to him Saturday.

Hopkins92

I was traveling in England and Ireland in my younger days, when my mom struck up a conversation with a gentleman from Scotland on the tube. I have no idea what that dude was saying and  my mom later admitted to really just nodding in agreement the whole time, not understanding a thing he said.

:D

Falconer

Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 14, 2019, 10:26:17 AM
I was traveling in England and Ireland in my younger days, when my mom struck up a conversation with a gentleman from Scotland on the tube. I have no idea what that dude was saying and  my mom later admitted to really just nodding in agreement the whole time, not understanding a thing he said.

:D
My wife and I spent a lovely week this summer in the Scottish Islands and Highlands. Didn't hear a word of English the whole time, but somehow they understood me perfectly well.  :o

Domino1195

RBQ - JCU Pod

Review YTD:
JCU was the preseason favorite to win the OAC, even though they had to replace many seniors. Their style of play – strong back 4 that stay well connected to tenacious midfielders - makes it easy for new players to assimilate into the team. With key contributions from so many underclassmen, kind of makes it scary to think the bulk of their players return next year.
Soph GK Conner Robinson is one of these youngsters.  JCU switched to Robinson after the 4th game of the year, and he would start all subsequent games except for the Messiah contest.  Of the 15 goals conceded by JCU, Robinson let in just 6.  Since the loss to OWU in the 109th minute JCU has gone 10-0-1 with 9 shut-outs.
JCU scored 40 goals this year, with 6 players accounting for 70% of them.  Like many GL teams this season JCU relied heavily on set-pieces. 1-0 victories over Denison, Capital and ONU all the result of set-piece goals. Of late Freshman Mario Aboumitri has become an attacker to watch, scoring both game winning goals in the OAC tournament games against Marietta and Otterbein.  3 of his goals were scored in the last 4 games, and 4 of his 6 goals were game winners.  Super Mario anyone?
JCU is a bit of an anomaly with respect to the corollary one might expect between fouls and YC/RC:  of the eight teams in the RBQ JCU has committed the most fouls (290), yet received the second fewest YC (14).  More telling is the fact that JCU has received only 5 of their 14 YC at home.  Referee standards in northern Ohio can be a bit more tolerant of physical play than in the south.  It should be expected that referees will allow more physical play in this group, and JCU doesn't back down from contact.

Review YTD:
Washington & Jefferson will represent the President's Athletic Conference this year.  Coming off a 6-10-1 season last year and picked to finish 3rd in 2019, W&J exceeded expectations thanks to 35 goals (2/3rds of the team's total goals) from four underclassmen. Freshman Dylan Mayanja scored 10 as did junior midfielder Alvaro Viadas.  That's the good news.  The bad news is W&J have conceded 37 goals, more than double any team in the JCU or Kenyon brackets.
Preconference, W&J lost 5 straight; the toughest opponent they've played all year was Marietta (SOS .552), to which they lost 3-0. Their SOS of .424 is the 4th lowest in the GL.  They have committed the second largest number of fouls after JCU, picking up 23 YC on the year.  But they are winners of 6 straight – 9-0-2 in their last 11 against DIII opponents (one loss to NAIA Point Park)

What to watch for:
W&J's chances against JCU are very slim. Conditions that could see them through:  JCU occasionally has trouble scoring against weaker opponents.  JCU out-shoots Oberlin 23-6 but needs a last minute goal to win; JCU outshoots Mt. Aloysius 32-4 and needs OT for the win. Both these games at home.  Secondly, if W&J can counter quickly and get behind the midfielders they will create scoring opportunities (Dylan Mayanja maybe?). W&J needs to take shots from distance (see Kenyon and Medaille goals), and while JCU's GK has had a fantastic season he can mishandle balls in the air.

I think JCU puts a least 4 on the board and then rests many of their starters for Sunday's game.

Review YTD:
Centre makes its 3 trip in the last 4 years to the NCAA tournament, losing last year on PK's to CMU after a scoreless match. They haven't lost since Sept 28, winners of 10 straight since then. Some key non-conference results this season include a come-from-behind 3-2 win over Hanover (trailed 2-0 in the second half), a 2-0 win away at Haverford and a 1-0 loss to Kenyon (0-0 at half).
Centre has scored 52 goals this year, second to Kenyon's 58 in this bracket.  Forward Alex Garuba is the top goal scorer in the Rust Belt Quadrant with 21 goals – 9 of which were scored in the last 4 games. El esta en el fuego!  Of the 20 games Centre has played Garuba has been held scoreless in just 5 games.
Centre is the most carded team in quadrant – 30 YC, 2 RC (no other team has more than 1 RC on the year).  Their first-team all-conference CB will miss the first game against Kalamazoo with a RC suspension.
In 2018 K'Zoo was 5-11-1 that conceded 33 goals; this year's record: 11-4-2 with 13 goals conceded.  Goalkeeping responsibilities were shared by freshman Sean Ellis (6 games) and sophomore Luke Kastran (11 games).  The pair recorded 9 shutouts in 17 games (only 3 SO in 2018). In their loss to Calvin 1-0, the only goal Calvin got was an unfortunate OG header. And they withstood 27 shots (9 on goal) from OWU in their 1-0 win first game of the year.
With only 28 goals scored K'Zoo has the lowest goals per team in the RBQ.  50% of their goals were provided by Ben Meschke (14); after that the next highest scorer has 3.  K'Zoo is also the second most carded team in RBQ, interesting as they have the third lowest number of fouls committed.

What to watch for:
Garuba, obviously.  Centre will need to replace their starting CB, not sure what that means for Meschke. Given K'Zoo's lack of scoring depth you wonder if Centre won't man-mark Meschke and try to make his day a living hell. K'Zoo has only played 5 away games this year, going 2-1-2. Centre was 9-1 on the road this season.

I think Centre wins this 1 or 2 zip.


Gray Fox

Quote from: Falconer on November 14, 2019, 10:56:36 AM
Quote from: Hopkins92 on November 14, 2019, 10:26:17 AM
I was traveling in England and Ireland in my younger days, when my mom struck up a conversation with a gentleman from Scotland on the tube. I have no idea what that dude was saying and  my mom later admitted to really just nodding in agreement the whole time, not understanding a thing he said.

:D
My wife and I spent a lovely week this summer in the Scottish Islands and Highlands. Didn't hear a word of English the whole time, but somehow they understood me perfectly well.  :o

The official language of the EU is English.  After Brexit is complete, they plan to keep it.  But Scotland wants to be part of the EU and may split from the United Kingdom.  So the EU may have Scottish as it's official language.
Fierce When Roused

Gregory Sager

... except that there's no such language as "Scottish".

There's Scots, the common Lowland speech which dates back to the Middle Ages and is a source of never-ending contention among linguists as to whether it is a true Germanic language of its own or is merely a dialect (or series of dialects) of the English language. There's Scottish Standard English, the local dialect of English, which represents the influence of the printed word and of the Church in conforming Scots to the grammar and vocabulary used by the Sasunach south of the border, especially after Scotland's royal court departed for good to London in 1603. This is the tongue of business, commerce, and the media in Scotland, and is usually associated with the middle and upper classes and with educational institutions. And then there's Scottish Gaelic (Gàidhlig), the modern form of the original Keltic language spoken by the Scots when they crossed the North Channel from Ireland a millennium and a half ago and conquered the northern third of the island of Britain. It's now spoken by only 1% of the people of Scotland and is largely confined to very remote areas in the western Highlands and the Outer Hebrides islands.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

PaulNewman

Quote from: Gregory Sager on December 19, 2019, 11:42:31 AM
... except that there's no such language as "Scottish".

There's Scots, the common Lowland speech which dates back to the Middle Ages and is a source of never-ending contention among linguists as to whether it is a true Germanic language of its own or is merely a dialect (or series of dialects) of the English language. There's Scottish Standard English, the local dialect of English, which represents the influence of the printed word and of the Church in conforming Scots to the grammar and vocabulary used by the Sasunach south of the border, especially after Scotland's royal court departed for good to London in 1603. This is the tongue of business, commerce, and the media in Scotland, and is usually associated with the middle and upper classes and with educational institutions. And then there's Scottish Gaelic (Gàidhlig), the modern form of the original Keltic language spoken by the Scots when they crossed the North Channel from Ireland a millennium and a half ago and conquered the northern third of the island of Britain. It's now spoken by only 1% of the people of Scotland and is largely confined to very remote areas in the western Highlands and the Outer Hebrides islands.

Very impressive if you really produced that off the top of your head.

Gregory Sager

Well, I didn't know how to spell Gàidhlig (and I doubt I that could spell it right now without cheating again), and I wasn't sure what the standard English dialect in Scotland -- the one that these guys are speaking -- was officially called. (In retrospect, Scottish Standard English is kind of a "duh" answer to that query.) But, yeah, most of it is just me being a walking compendium of useless information.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell