Pool C -- 2011

Started by Ralph Turner, October 09, 2011, 04:31:59 PM

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lakeshore

based on the criteria...

1.  IWU
2.  Redlands
3.  Delaware Valley
4.  McMurry
5.  Wheaton
6.  Baldwin Wallace/CWRU (possible pool B)

The 9-1 teams left don't have good enough SOS

USee

based on recent history I don't see the committee taking a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team, no matter the SOS.

jknezek

Quote from: lakeshore on November 07, 2011, 08:04:23 AM
based on the criteria...

1.  IWU
2.  Redlands
3.  Delaware Valley
4.  McMurry
5.  Wheaton
6.  Baldwin Wallace/CWRU (possible pool B)

The 9-1 teams left don't have good enough SOS

Badlwin Wallace's SOS is 105, Centre is 5... Not sure where your argument is coming from here.

jknezek

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 06, 2011, 11:06:45 PM
Some of the 1-loss teams appear to be pretty weak.  IF it gets to 2-loss teams, who is in best shape?

I haven't studied that question real closely, but suspect it would be Wheaton by the listed criteria; Bald-Wally if human decision-making takes a major role.  Thoughts?

Depends on what criteria they use. I highly doubt it will get to a 2 loss team, but I believe Huntingdon, SJF and then W&L have the highest SOS of 2 loss teams currently, all inside the top 11, followed by Wheaton at 14 and Lycoming at 17 to round out the current top 20 2 loss SOSs. While I expect Huntingdon to pick up a third loss at Wesley, if they don't they have to be one of the best candidates. Wins over 2 RROs (H-SC and Wesley). Of course, there would be a real logjam of "south" teams as I'd assume that Huntingdon would be the third South team nominated in this case (behind 1 D3 loss McM and Centre).

Bald-Wally's SOS is not very strong at 105, so being a 2 loss team that far down the pecking order could be a tough sell unless they throw all the metrics out the window. Especially when you can find 2 East teams with good cases and one North team without trying very hard.

smedindy

#184
Quote from: USee on November 07, 2011, 08:06:37 AM
based on recent history I don't see the committee taking a 2 loss team over a 1 loss team, no matter the SOS.

Only if it's Illinois College or Endicott vs. Wheaton or B/W. But even then, who knows?

But Centre definitely gets in over Wheaton.

And the 2-loss teams better hope Del Val wins.

AUKaz00

Endicott is an interesting case.  They weren't listed in the Regional Rankings for the East, so the best they could be was 11th.  They should leap SUNY-Maritime and potentially Lycoming, but does St. John Fisher and the loser of Kean/Montclair fall far enough that they end up below Endicott?  And if Widener loses, would they remain above Endicott?  That's at least 2 and maybe 3 two-loss teams that Endicott would have to pass in order to even get on the board during the Pool C discussion.  If Endicott is higher than Fisher in the second RR, then I bet the committee will continue to move the Gulls over any other two-loss teams after the next week's games.
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Schwami

Quote from: jknezek on November 07, 2011, 08:53:01 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 06, 2011, 11:06:45 PM
Some of the 1-loss teams appear to be pretty weak.  IF it gets to 2-loss teams, who is in best shape?

I haven't studied that question real closely, but suspect it would be Wheaton by the listed criteria; Bald-Wally if human decision-making takes a major role.  Thoughts?

Depends on what criteria they use. I highly doubt it will get to a 2 loss team, but I believe Huntingdon, SJF and then W&L have the highest SOS of 2 loss teams currently, all inside the top 11, followed by Wheaton at 14 and Lycoming at 17 to round out the current top 20 2 loss SOSs. While I expect Huntingdon to pick up a third loss at Wesley, if they don't they have to be one of the best candidates. Wins over 2 RROs (H-SC and Wesley). Of course, there would be a real logjam of "south" teams as I'd assume that Huntingdon would be the third South team nominated in this case (behind 1 D3 loss McM and Centre).

Bald-Wally's SOS is not very strong at 105, so being a 2 loss team that far down the pecking order could be a tough sell unless they throw all the metrics out the window. Especially when you can find 2 East teams with good cases and one North team without trying very hard.

If Huntingdon beats Wesley, they would have three wins against RROs --- Witt is regionally ranked, and will probably still be so when the new rankings come out.  (Witt also beat Capital who beat B-W, FWIW.)
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SUADC

As for Pool "C" consideration for East regional. St. John Fisher and the 2nd Place NJAC would give the east a stronger eight seed than Endicott. However, Endicott has only one loss to Western New England who has already beaten Norwich, even though I do not think it counts for anything. Still, Endicott has a good case, not a strong one, but a good case. On the other side, St. John Fisher losses are to two other Playoff bound opponents, they can argue that, but the games between both of those teams weren't close. The 2nd Place NJAC team has the best Case either Kean or Montclair State. Kean can argue that it beat national powerhouse Wesley and Montclair can say they lost a close game to College of New Jersey and Kean (If close) that beat Wesley. Personally, I think St. John Fisher, Montclair, and Kean bring more to the table as far as athletes and a team as a whole. Also, historically St. John Fisher and Montclair have been in the playoffs and won. 

smedindy

Illinois College has the same kind of case as well. If Del Val wins, then IC and Endicott make their arguments about a one-loss team vs. the phalanx of two-losses from the power conferences.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 06, 2011, 08:43:55 PM
Barring upsets, I'd agree that Redlands and IWU should go 1 and 2 (in that order; IWU will have a slightly superior SOS, but results against common opponent NCC should trump that), IF IWU jumps Case in the RR.  Keith scared the daylights out of me with a mock selection in ATN, using Case ahead of IWU - Case took the final C, so IWU never reached the table! :P

(Note: if DelVal loses to Widener, they might sneak into the top 2 with the boost to an already highly respectable SOS.)

Mea culpa, when I posted this I totally overlooked Centre.  With only one loss and the 5th highest SOS, they might well be the first Pool C (and certainly among the first three). :-[

Ron Boerger

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 07, 2011, 04:07:10 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 06, 2011, 08:43:55 PM
Barring upsets, I'd agree that Redlands and IWU should go 1 and 2 (in that order; IWU will have a slightly superior SOS, but results against common opponent NCC should trump that), IF IWU jumps Case in the RR.  Keith scared the daylights out of me with a mock selection in ATN, using Case ahead of IWU - Case took the final C, so IWU never reached the table! :P

(Note: if DelVal loses to Widener, they might sneak into the top 2 with the boost to an already highly respectable SOS.)

Mea culpa, when I posted this I totally overlooked Centre.  With only one loss and the 5th highest SOS, they might well be the first Pool C (and certainly among the first three). :-[

McMurry was ranked higher in last week's Regional Rankings even having one more loss, so after the loss Centre won't be the first Pool C despite the high SOS.  McM's is top 30 (I think) and a one-point loss to UMHB's a bit more impressive than a six-point loss to Trinity (TX).

jknezek

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 07, 2011, 04:54:17 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 07, 2011, 04:07:10 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 06, 2011, 08:43:55 PM
Barring upsets, I'd agree that Redlands and IWU should go 1 and 2 (in that order; IWU will have a slightly superior SOS, but results against common opponent NCC should trump that), IF IWU jumps Case in the RR.  Keith scared the daylights out of me with a mock selection in ATN, using Case ahead of IWU - Case took the final C, so IWU never reached the table! :P

(Note: if DelVal loses to Widener, they might sneak into the top 2 with the boost to an already highly respectable SOS.)

Mea culpa, when I posted this I totally overlooked Centre.  With only one loss and the 5th highest SOS, they might well be the first Pool C (and certainly among the first three). :-[

McMurry was ranked higher in last week's Regional Rankings even having one more loss, so after the loss Centre won't be the first Pool C despite the high SOS.  McM's is top 30 (I think) and a one-point loss to UMHB's a bit more impressive than a six-point loss to Trinity (TX).

Perhaps, but it depends on how the committee sees things. Personally, I see Centre, at 9-1 with a win over once RRO W&L and an extremely high SOS, as an early lock to get a Pool C bid. McM, with a very impressive resume, still has 2 losses and ONLY a 7-1 record against D3 teams (1-1 against other opponents). So if you know the other regions are going to throw out 9-1 teams, I'm not sure the South committee leads with an 8-2 overall (7-1 D3) McMurry. You might get stuck going a few rounds and lose your chance to put out 9-1 Centre later on. That being said, McM should be higher in the regional rankings, so they should go first. I'm just thinking in terms of gamesmanship if that is how I would want to start off if I was a South Region Committee aiming for 2 Pool C bids...

ExTartanPlayer

IMHO, jknezek, if McMurry and Centre are both in the top six of the "Pool C" teams, the order in which they come to the board shouldn't be an issue (in theory).

I see what you're saying - that 8-2 McMurry could be dismissed in favor of 9-1 teams from other regions, so perhaps the South should put Centre up first (hoping that they go in as the first C), and then hope that McMurry slides in through the back door later - but either way, McMurry is competing against those same teams for a Pool C slot.

Moving on...if Endicott gets in the playoffs at 9-1 without winning the NEFC title, that's an absolute travesty, and I don't care how good they look via the criteria.  SOS numbers are meaningless for a conference with such limited intraconference play (I pointed out previously that Endicott and UW-Oshkosh - who played Mount Union in a nonconference game, plus the WIAC meatgrinder - have about the same SOS ranking).  The committee, presumably, will take that into account and all but dismiss Endicott's SOS numbers.
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jknezek

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2011, 06:04:15 PM
IMHO, jknezek, if McMurry and Centre are both in the top six of the "Pool C" teams, the order in which they come to the board shouldn't be an issue (in theory).

I notice you add that (in theory) and that's the problem. This isn't theory. You have 6 rounds of Pool C voting. If you throw up a team that is 8-2 (7-1) in round 1 and it takes 4 rounds before the other 3 teams put up against them start to look unappealing on strength, since presumable they are going to be 9-1 (9-1) type teams, then you only have 2 more rounds for your second team to get picked. If you put up a 9-1 (9-1) in the first round and they go in round 1 or 2 because they have the highest 9-1 (9-1) SOS, you get 4 tries to get your second team off the board. The more tries your second team has, the more likely they are to get picked. It's simple really. You have to lead with the team you think will come off the board first.

The team most likely to come off the board first is the team that looks most like the others, with an arguable edge. That edge, for Centre, is going to be the SOS. I'd presume you'll end up arguing Centre's SOS versus some other 9-1 (9-1) two RRO victories for the first couple spots. That's a reasonable argument and one you will win at some point.

I'd much rather be trying to make that argument than sitting there pushing McM with the argument of: hey! they only lost by 1 point to the 1 seed in the South! While trying to counter, yeah, but my team only has 1 loss TOTAL in 10 games, not one loss in 8 games. You have to remember, these are a bunch of people on a conference call all trying to make an argument for why their team is the best choice. You need an edge. I just don't think the best "edge" is a margin of loss. Especially on a partial schedule (7-1). That's a bad argument...

AUKaz00

It would seem that Redlands will be the first off the board with their win over NCC.  After that, I don't see any 2-loss team in the East or either of the 1-loss, regionally unranked teams (Endicott and Illinois College) having a better case than Case, IWU, McMurry or Centre.  The real intrigue would come if both Del Valley and Linfield lost since positioning amongst those four would then matter immensely.
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