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Ron Boerger

Quote from: USee on September 28, 2014, 06:52:48 PM
Ryan,

Thanks for your "snap judgements" piece. I would only point out  the CCIW is one of 11 conferences that hasn't yet started conference play.  The "independents" like U Chicago and Wash U, etc also haven't started play against each other but that's not really a conference any more.

At least UC and WashU will be part of a conference (the SAA [football only]) starting in 2015.

Hawks88

Is there a team of the week for this past week? Last week's is still showing.

Ryan Tipps

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 23, 2014, 09:23:13 AM
Is there a team of the week for this past week? Last week's is still showing.

Just now seeing your note. I'm not sure what was up this morning when you posted, but the current TOW is up now:

http://www.d3football.com/awards/tow/2014/week7
D3football.com Senior Editor and Around the Nation columnist. On Twitter: @NewsTipps

2.7 seconds. An average football player may need more time to score; a great one finds a way. I've seen greatness happen.

Ralph Turner

Re:  Top 25.

There were only 78 points on the ballots cast for the teams that did not make the Top 25!  That is as few as I can remember!  It usually shrinks about this time of the year to a consensus beginning to form on the best teams. Even #24 Chapman at 90 points was almost to #22 on the Theoretical Perfect Ballot.

78 points is only 0.96% of all of the potential points (8,125) not going to a "Top 25" team!

FCGrizzliesGrad

It's not Around the Nation but didn't know where else to put it.

In Triple Take at the end under 'They'll be on your radar'
QuoteRyan's take: Franklin. With a win this weekend, the Griz would be guaranteed to finish no worse than 7-1 in conference play, and they own the head-to-head victories over other potential one-loss teams. That means Franklin is poised to be the first team in 2014 to land a spot in the playoffs.
Would be nice... but Franklin has the week off. And with MSJ playing Bluffton, the winner will still be alive (albeit highly unlikely) for the conference crown.
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Ryan Tipps

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 01, 2014, 05:31:40 AM
It's not Around the Nation but didn't know where else to put it.

In Triple Take at the end under 'They'll be on your radar'
QuoteRyan's take: Franklin. With a win this weekend, the Griz would be guaranteed to finish no worse than 7-1 in conference play, and they own the head-to-head victories over other potential one-loss teams. That means Franklin is poised to be the first team in 2014 to land a spot in the playoffs.
Would be nice... but Franklin has the week off. And with MSJ playing Bluffton, the winner will still be alive (albeit highly unlikely) for the conference crown.

Indeed, that was my mistake. I had put a note at the end of the blurb on Saturday when I noticed the error, but it was up far too long. Apologies.
D3football.com Senior Editor and Around the Nation columnist. On Twitter: @NewsTipps

2.7 seconds. An average football player may need more time to score; a great one finds a way. I've seen greatness happen.

K-Mack

Not sure where this belonged, Round of 32 Triple Take tally. I had to review it for the podcast anyway, so I figured I might as well do it in a post instead of on a scrap of paper than no one can see.

UW-WHITEWATER QUADRANT
Keith's take:  UW-Whitewater 52, Macalester 7
Ryan's take: UW-Whitewater 45, Macalester 3
Pat's take: UW-Whitewater 45, Macalester 6
Consensus: The defending champions should dominate in the Scots' first playoff game ever.
RESULT: UW-W 55-2

Keith's take: Wabash 27, Franklin 17
Ryan's take: Wabash 41, Franklin 21
Pat's take: Wabash 53, Franklin 31
Consensus: How much scoring we expect varies, but the Little Giants should win this 4-5 matchup by double digits.
RESULT: Wabash, 33-14

Keith's take: St. John's 31, St. Scholastica 10
Ryan's take: St. John's 38, St. Scholastica 7
Pat's take: St. John's 38, St. Scholastica 17
Consensus: The Johnnies see Kurt Ramler again, and send the Saints to another unceremonious first-round exit.
RESULT: St. John's, 35-7.

Keith's take: Wartburg 35, St. Thomas 21
Ryan's take: Wartburg 34, St. Thomas 20
Pat's take: Wartburg 54, St. Thomas 35
Consensus: For all the talk about it being a tough draw, we've got the Knights by two or three touchdowns.
RESULT: Wartburg, 37-31.

MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR QUADRANT
Keith's take: Widener 31, Muhlenberg 21
Ryan's take: Widener 49, Muhlenberg 21
Pat's take: Widener 42, Muhlenberg 35
Consensus: We're varied on how close the Mules keep it, but the Pride roars on.
RESULT: Widener, 36-35.

Keith's take: Delaware Valley 42, Christopher Newport 35
Ryan's take: Delaware Valley 41, Christopher Newport 37
Pat's take: Delaware Valley 56, Christopher Newport 31
Consensus: The Aggies have one of the most generous defenses in the field, so they'll have to win a shootout.
RESULT: CNU, 29-26.

Keith's take: Linfield 28, Chapman 21
Ryan's take: Linfield 28, Chapman 13
Pat's take: Linfield 27, Chapman 24
Consensus: Basically a repeat of the Week 1 matchup, with a bit more scoring.
RESULT: Linfield, 55-24.

Keith's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Texas Lutheran 24
Ryan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Texas Lutheran 17
Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Texas Lutheran 13
Consensus: Not quite 72-16, but not quite close.
RESULT: Not finished yet.

WESLEY QUADRANT
Keith's take: Wesley 56, Hampden-Sydney 21
Ryan's take: Wesley 45, Hampden-Sydney 10
Pat's take: Wesley 42, Hampden-Sydney 20
Consensus: The Wolverines pick up where they left off the last time they played a D-III opponent.
RESULT: Wesley 52-7.

Keith's take: MIT 24, Husson 21
Ryan's take: MIT 34, Husson 31
Pat's take: Husson 20, MIT 15
Consensus: This could go either way, and we all expect a grind.
RESULT: MIT, 27-20 OT

Keith's take: Johns Hopkins 34, Rowan 17
Ryan's take: Johns Hopkins 27, Rowan 17
Pat's take: Johns Hopkins 24, Rowan 10
Consensus: The Profs just don't have enough offensive variety to keep up with the Blue Jays.
RESULT: JHU, 24-16.

Keith's take: Hobart 24, Ithaca 22
Ryan's take: Ithaca 24, Hobart 20
Pat's take: Ithaca 24, Hobart 21
Consensus: We effectively picked the same score, in a toss-up. (We each make our choices without looking at the others) Hobart is a No. 2 seed, but would it be an upset if it lost to the Empire 8 champs?
RESULT: Hobart, 22-15.

MOUNT UNION QUADRANT
Keith's take: Wheaton 31, Benedictine 6
Ryan's take: Wheaton 42, Benedictine 7
Pat's take: Wheaton 54, Benedictine 0
Consensus: At least the Eagles, who rallied from 1-4 to win the NACC, have a short ride home.
RESULT: Wheaton, 43-14

Keith's take: John Carroll 35, Centre 13
Ryan's take: John Carroll 45, Centre 14
Pat's take: John Carroll 45, Centre 21
Consensus: Going toe-to-toe with Mount Union in Week 11 portends success more than going 10-0 in the SAA.
RESULT: JCU, 63-28.

Keith's take: Washington and Jefferson 28, Wittenberg 24
Ryan's take: Wittenberg 38, Washington and Jefferson 21
Pat's take: Washington and Jefferson 34, Wittenberg 31
Consensus: This is one of the few places Pat and I see potential for a narrow upset; Ryan disagrees.
RESULT: W&J, 41-25.

Keith's take: Mount Union 49, Adrian 13
Ryan's take: Mount Union 66, Adrian 7
Pat's take: Mount Union 54, Adrian 3
Consensus: The Bulldogs run into a bulwark.
RESULT: MU, 63-3.

I believe that's 15-1 (Del Val) for me, and 14-2 for Pat (Husson, Del Val) and Ryan (Witt, Del Val).

Next week there are no gimmes though, except for Wesley-MIT. Many of the other games might have obvious picks, but I think it's going to be one of the all-time great Round 2s.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

Bartman

Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM
Not sure where this belonged, Round of 32 Triple Take tally. I had to review it for the podcast anyway, so I figured I might as well do it in a post instead of on a scrap of paper than no one can see.

UW-WHITEWATER QUADRANT
Keith's take:  UW-Whitewater 52, Macalester 7
Ryan's take: UW-Whitewater 45, Macalester 3
Pat's take: UW-Whitewater 45, Macalester 6
Consensus: The defending champions should dominate in the Scots' first playoff game ever.
RESULT: UW-W 55-2

Keith's take: Wabash 27, Franklin 17
Ryan's take: Wabash 41, Franklin 21
Pat's take: Wabash 53, Franklin 31
Consensus: How much scoring we expect varies, but the Little Giants should win this 4-5 matchup by double digits.
RESULT: Wabash, 33-14

Keith's take: St. John's 31, St. Scholastica 10
Ryan's take: St. John's 38, St. Scholastica 7
Pat's take: St. John's 38, St. Scholastica 17
Consensus: The Johnnies see Kurt Ramler again, and send the Saints to another unceremonious first-round exit.
RESULT: St. John's, 35-7.

Keith's take: Wartburg 35, St. Thomas 21
Ryan's take: Wartburg 34, St. Thomas 20
Pat's take: Wartburg 54, St. Thomas 35
Consensus: For all the talk about it being a tough draw, we've got the Knights by two or three touchdowns.
RESULT: Wartburg, 37-31.

MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR QUADRANT
Keith's take: Widener 31, Muhlenberg 21
Ryan's take: Widener 49, Muhlenberg 21
Pat's take: Widener 42, Muhlenberg 35
Consensus: We're varied on how close the Mules keep it, but the Pride roars on.
RESULT: Widener, 36-35.

Keith's take: Delaware Valley 42, Christopher Newport 35
Ryan's take: Delaware Valley 41, Christopher Newport 37
Pat's take: Delaware Valley 56, Christopher Newport 31
Consensus: The Aggies have one of the most generous defenses in the field, so they'll have to win a shootout.
RESULT: CNU, 29-26.

Keith's take: Linfield 28, Chapman 21
Ryan's take: Linfield 28, Chapman 13
Pat's take: Linfield 27, Chapman 24
Consensus: Basically a repeat of the Week 1 matchup, with a bit more scoring.
RESULT: Linfield, 55-24.

Keith's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Texas Lutheran 24
Ryan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Texas Lutheran 17
Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Texas Lutheran 13
Consensus: Not quite 72-16, but not quite close.
RESULT: Not finished yet.

WESLEY QUADRANT
Keith's take: Wesley 56, Hampden-Sydney 21
Ryan's take: Wesley 45, Hampden-Sydney 10
Pat's take: Wesley 42, Hampden-Sydney 20
Consensus: The Wolverines pick up where they left off the last time they played a D-III opponent.
RESULT: Wesley 52-7.

Keith's take: MIT 24, Husson 21
Ryan's take: MIT 34, Husson 31
Pat's take: Husson 20, MIT 15
Consensus: This could go either way, and we all expect a grind.
RESULT: MIT, 27-20 OT

Keith's take: Johns Hopkins 34, Rowan 17
Ryan's take: Johns Hopkins 27, Rowan 17
Pat's take: Johns Hopkins 24, Rowan 10
Consensus: The Profs just don't have enough offensive variety to keep up with the Blue Jays.
RESULT: JHU, 24-16.

Keith's take: Hobart 24, Ithaca 22
Ryan's take: Ithaca 24, Hobart 20
Pat's take: Ithaca 24, Hobart 21
Consensus: We effectively picked the same score, in a toss-up. (We each make our choices without looking at the others) Hobart is a No. 2 seed, but would it be an upset if it lost to the Empire 8 champs?
RESULT: Hobart, 22-15.

MOUNT UNION QUADRANT
Keith's take: Wheaton 31, Benedictine 6
Ryan's take: Wheaton 42, Benedictine 7
Pat's take: Wheaton 54, Benedictine 0
Consensus: At least the Eagles, who rallied from 1-4 to win the NACC, have a short ride home.
RESULT: Wheaton, 43-14

Keith's take: John Carroll 35, Centre 13
Ryan's take: John Carroll 45, Centre 14
Pat's take: John Carroll 45, Centre 21
Consensus: Going toe-to-toe with Mount Union in Week 11 portends success more than going 10-0 in the SAA.
RESULT: JCU, 63-28.

Keith's take: Washington and Jefferson 28, Wittenberg 24
Ryan's take: Wittenberg 38, Washington and Jefferson 21
Pat's take: Washington and Jefferson 34, Wittenberg 31
Consensus: This is one of the few places Pat and I see potential for a narrow upset; Ryan disagrees.
RESULT: W&J, 41-25.

Keith's take: Mount Union 49, Adrian 13
Ryan's take: Mount Union 66, Adrian 7
Pat's take: Mount Union 54, Adrian 3
Consensus: The Bulldogs run into a bulwark.
RESULT: MU, 63-3.

I believe that's 15-1 (Del Val) for me, and 14-2 for Pat (Husson, Del Val) and Ryan (Witt, Del Val).

Next week there are no gimmes though, except for Wesley-MIT. Many of the other games might have obvious picks, but I think it's going to be one of the all-time great Round 2s.
Pat and Ryan picked Ithaca over Hobart, so they are 13-3. Please pick Hobart as a potential "disappointment" against JHU, it motivated them in the second half yesterday!
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Tekken

Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM

Keith's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Texas Lutheran 24
Ryan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Texas Lutheran 17
Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Texas Lutheran 13
Consensus: Not quite 72-16, but not quite close.

Not quite right.

ITH radio

Yeah I was impressed with what I saw in TLU. Not sure what happened in that 72 pt game BC you guys played Cru neck and neck today. Make those two fgs and the Dogs could have won the game on a final kick.
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Tekken

Shows why it is important to throw MoV out the window once a game is firmly in hand (nor write off a team solely due to a blowout to one of the super elites).  There's just too many variables in play as to why those margins can climb so high,  especially when you have teams that are almost assuredly going to see each other again that season.

art76

#2771
Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM
Not sure where this belonged

As I shared over in the Pool C Board at the beginning of the play-offs, here are the updated brackets using the D3 Top 25 rankings. As some of you may be reading this notion for the first time, let me explain by saying I simply put the corresponding number in front of all teams that received votes as well. If a team was unranked and received no votes, this year it got a ranking of 42, as the last team receiving a vote was pegged at 41.  So here's what we have left:

1 vs. 14 - Whitewater vs. Wabash
5 vs. 13 - Wartburg vs. St. John's

11 vs. 42 - Widener vs. Christopher Newport
2 vs. 10 - Mary Hardin-Baylor vs. Linfield

4 vs. 36 - Wesley vs. MIT
7 vs. 9 - Johns Hopkins vs. Hobart

6 vs. 8 - John Carroll vs. Wheaton
3 vs. 19 - Mount Union vs. Washington and Jefferson

I'd wager that the rankings would have changed after this weeks performance, but as that doesn't happen, it is what it is.

Going a step further and simply reassigning the rankings top to bottom from 1 to 16, we get these pairings left:

1 vs, 13
5 vs. 12

11 vs. 16
2 vs. 10

4 vs. 15
7 vs. 9

6 vs. 8
3 vs 14

As you can see, in general, the higher seeds get to play lower seeds and the middle of the field games look intriguing.

Final notes: The top 11 teams from the D3 Top 25 teams poll are still alive in the play-offs in the second week. (Only two teams outside the top 25 are left.) Obviously, because some of the top 11 play one another, the numbers will change next week.

The Cinderella story team has to be Christopher Newport, as they came in unranked and have a pretty decent chance of defeating Widener in this next round.

Feel free to ruminate.
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You have a body. - C.S. Lewis

K-Mack

Quote from: timtlu on November 23, 2014, 02:48:35 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM

Keith's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Texas Lutheran 24
Ryan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Texas Lutheran 17
Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Texas Lutheran 13
Consensus: Not quite 72-16, but not quite close.

Not quite right.

That was definitely one of the surprise results, and I think we were very fair to TLU on the podcast. You have to imagine that the program is still on its way up, given the way it improved in its second shot against UMHB and given how they outgained the Cru and probably would have had an even better chance to win had they made some kicks.

TLU doesn't go out in the first round if the matchups are shaken up a bit, but we already know how it is down south. One positive is that the SAA gets an automatic bid next year, so there'll potentially be another player in the south, and if it's TLU and UMHB in again, one may get matched up against the SAA champ if it ...

Nevermind, even Rhodes is 589 miles from Belton, and 714 to TLU. Maybe if LC gets in. .... whole theory shot. (posts anyway)
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

Pat Coleman

Quote from: K-Mack on November 25, 2014, 11:00:43 PM
Quote from: timtlu on November 23, 2014, 02:48:35 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 23, 2014, 12:52:12 PM

Keith's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 52, Texas Lutheran 24
Ryan's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Texas Lutheran 17
Pat's take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Texas Lutheran 13
Consensus: Not quite 72-16, but not quite close.

Not quite right.

That was definitely one of the surprise results, and I think we were very fair to TLU on the podcast.

I'm not concerned about this prediction, or timtlu's reaction. Have you seen his posting history?
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K-Mack

This link by SBNation's Jon Morse:

a) Doesn't screw up any of the D-III facts, as far as how the playoffs work or who was eligible at the time it was written
b) Explains how D2 and NAIA select their fields, which are relevant when we are discussing better ways for D-III to do it.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/12/7194821/dii-diii-naia-college-football-playoffs

The D-II earned access rule seems roughly to be no automatic bids for conference winners, but still recognizing that winning your conference means something, so if you're close to the playoff line (top six in regional rankings is the line; exceptions for CCs made out to 8) they'll vault you in.

I don't know that 8th in the region would be where the line is in D-III, and given that 7-3 CNU just won on the road in the first round, not even sure we need to fix the AQ system, but it gets discussed.

NAIA is top 16 in coaches poll, with exceptions for conf champs ranked in the top 20. I think the most interesting thing there is the use of the poll rather than a selection committee with criteria.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.