NESCAC 2014

Started by Becks, February 27, 2014, 08:56:22 PM

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All NESCAC

Quote from: Becks on September 14, 2014, 04:45:55 PM
Quote from: GUBFL on September 14, 2014, 04:29:50 PM
Got to love the NESCAC, you just never know do you?  Big win for Bowdoin as they normally have a very tough time getting points from Amherst, Williams and Middlebury.  They look like they will be very tough defensively again this year.  While its only the week 2, surprised by the records of Conn College (positive) and Middlebury (negative).  Is the peeking order in the NESCAC changing or is it still much to early to tell?
I think the Conn program is getting better under their new coach, while Midd is having a bit of a rebuilding year after several very good seasons. Still, I would be surprised to see Conn finish above Midd.

Was in attendance for the Midd vs Conn game and Conn outplayed Midd.  Conn has added some new recruits to last years recruiting class and they can play. They are a young team.  First goal, was a soft PK (easily could not have been called but it was) but overall they looked good moving the ball around and the D played well.  They will be in every game this year and given that they are a very young team, barring injury, they should get better each game.

Becks

#151
Weekday games this week feature 2 league games: Wes @ Tufts on Tuesday and Bates @ Bowdoin on Wednesday.

Games scheduled for Tues, Sept 16:

Colby v Univ of New England (@Colby) - Bennettrank has Colby as 3 goal favorites, while Massey has UNE rated much higher and predicts Colby by only 2-1. UNE beat St Joes (ME) 4-1, while Bates only beat St Joes by 2-0, and UNE also beat Endicott last weekend, so UNE is no pushover. This should be a closer game than BR predicts. I'll go with Massey and say Colby 2-1.

Conn v St Joes (CT) (@St Joes) - BR has Conn as a 2 goal favorite, while Massey has Conn only by 2-1. Trinity beat St Joes 5-0 earlier this year, outshooting them 28-2. Conn is playing well, so I'll say Conn 3-0.

Middlebury v Plattsburgh State (@Middlebury) - BR has Midd as a 3 goal favorite. while Massey says Midd by only 1-0. I'll split the difference and say Midd 2-0.

Wesleyan v Tufts (@Tufts) - BR has Tufts as a 1 goal favorite, while Massey predicts Tufts by 2-0. Based on how hot Tufts is right now and how poorly Wes's results have been so far, I say Tufts 3-0.

Games schedule for Wed, Sept 17:

Trinity v Wheaton (@Trinity) - BR has Trinity as a 1 goal favorite, while Massey predicts Trinity 2-1.  I'll agree with Massey.

Bates v Bowdoin (@Bowdoin) - Both teams are coming off good wins (Bates over Hamilton and Bowdoin over Amherst). BR has Bowdoin as 3 goal favorites, while Massey says Bowdoin by only 2-1. Surprisingly, Bowdoin's D's been more impressive than their O so far this season. I'll say Bowdoin 2-0.

Amherst v Springfield (@Springfield) - BR has Amherst as a 1 goal favorite, and Massey says Amherst 1-0. When great algorithms agree, who am I to argue? Amherst 1-0.


2xfaux

It is great fun to follow what you folks are talking about.  I guess this question is for Becks, when you say "stats indicate a deserved win" does that also mean sometimes "stats indicate an undeserved win"?

Becks

#153
Quote from: 2xfaux on September 15, 2014, 06:25:39 PM
It is great fun to follow what you folks are talking about.  I guess this question is for Becks, when you say "stats indicate a deserved win" does that also mean sometimes "stats indicate an undeserved win"?
Yes, I'd say they do. The premise is that the team that is the better/more dominant team on the day is the one that "deserves" the win. If the winning team was outshot and SOG'd by a sizable margin, it is likely that the other team was the better/more dominant team on the day, and that they, rather than the winning team, "deserved" to win.

amh63

Becks.....the Amherst vs Springfield game is presently listed on the Amherst website as scheduled for Wednesday.

Becks

Quote from: amh63 on September 15, 2014, 08:02:31 PM
Becks.....the Amherst vs Springfield game is presently listed on the Amherst website as scheduled for Wednesday.
Yup. That's how I've got it. I just underlined the date headings to make them stand out more.

Becks

#156
Comments on Tues, Sept 16 games:

Univ of New England 3-2 Colby - A bit of an upset. Bennettrank had Colby as 3 goal favorites, while Massey and I predicted Colby by 2-1. Stats give a slight edge to UNE, so not an unreasonable result. UNE is decent. They outshot Colby 15-12 and out SOGd them 9-7.

Conn 8-0 St Joes (CT) - BR had Conn as a 2 goal favorite, while Massey had Conn only by 2-1. I came closest and predicted Conn 3-0. Conn outshot St Joes 35-5 and out SOGd them 21-2.

Middlebury 1-0 Plattsburgh State - BR had Midd as a 3 goal favorite, while I said Midd 2-0. Massey turned out to be spot on with 1-0. Midd outshot PS 17-7 and out SOGd them 12-4.

Wesleyan 1-1 Tufts (2OT) - I have to say I was pleasantly surprised by the result. Tufts outshot Wes by 19-8 but only SOGd them by 7-5. Perhaps actually Tufts was actually lucky to get the tie. Wes players felt hard done by when a goal in the 2d OT was waived off for offsides.

rudy

Wesleyan 1-1 Tufts (2OT) - I have to say I was pleasantly surprised by the result. Tufts outshot Wes by 19-8 but only SOGd them by 7-5. Perhaps actually Tufts was actually lucky to get the tie. Wes players felt hard done by when a goal in the 2d OT was waived off for offsides.
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You could also say that Wesleyan was lucky to get he tie as there was a golden opportunity in the last seconds of regulation that hit the post (-:  All depends how you look at it.  I was at the game and both sides played hard.  Tufts missed some early opportunities in the first 20 minutes with miss hits in front of the open net but that's soccer.  Wesleyan also has the goal called back for offsides.  In general I think Tufts had more good opportunities to score but did not capitalize.  No excuses though. SOG's does not always mean they were great chances.  Tufts missed probably 4 great chances and Wesleyan may have missed one.  That's the way the ball bounces sometimes.

Becks

Second NESCAC weekly soccer release posted: http://www.nescac.com/sports/wsoc/2014-15/reports/NESCAC_WSOC_091514.pdf Astrid Kempainen gets POW in a crowded field with several other deserving candidates whose feats are mentioned in the NESCAC Notes section.

amh63

Amherst wins in Springfield in a night game on turf, 1-0.....as all predicted.

Becks

Quote from: amh63 on September 17, 2014, 08:56:55 PM
Amherst wins in Springfield in a night game on turf, 1-0.....as all predicted.
Really, if Bennettrank and Massey already said it was going to be 1-0, I'm not sure why they even bothered playing the game.  ;)

Becks

#161
Comments on Wed, Sept 17 games:

Trinity 4-1 Wheaton (@Trinity) - BR had Trinity as a 1 goal favorite, while Massey and I predicted Trinity 2-1.  Stats suggest this was a very odd result and Wheaton actually had the better of the play. Wheaton outshot Trinity by 21-8 and out SOGd them by 8-6.

Bowdoin 1-0 Bates (@Bowdoin) - BR had Bowdoin as 3 goal favorites, while Massey said Bowdoin by 2-1 and I had 2-0. Bowdoin's defense comes through again, but their offense is surprisingly unimpressive so far this season given the offensive talent returning. Bowdoin outshot Bates 18-7, but only out SOGd them 7-5.

Amherst 1-0 Springfield (@Springfield) - BR had Amherst as a 1 goal favorite, and Massey and I said Amherst 1-0. Stats suggest a very even game. Springfield slightly outshot Amherst by 11-9, while SOGs were tied 4-4.

Becks

#162
After checking out BennettRank http://www.bennettrank.com/conferences/nescac/?sports=Soccer&gender=Women&division=D3 and Massey http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=csocw2014&sub=12903 , they each have plus and minuses.  BennettRank has a better look to its website and it seems to get complete results (at least for NESCAC teams), but is a bit slow to input the results and it's ratings seem to respond only slowly to current season results. On the other hand, Massey provides more info and its ratings seem to reflect current season results better, but its site is uglier (in my opinion) and Massey is missing some results (eg, it currently only has 1 of Bowdoin's results). Massey has some scary features. If you click on a team's name, it will give you it's current odds for how likely it is that it is that the team will win each of its remaining games on its schedule. You can also pop up a Monte Carlo simulation that show the likelihood of different season-end records. That's scary if you are Wes or Colby (currently ranked #10 and 11 by Massey), perhaps heart-warming if you are Williams or Amherst.

Becks

#163
Games scheduled for Sat, Sept 20:

A couple of headline games in the classic Williams v Amherst matchup and the more northern pairing of Bowdoin v Middlebury.

Wesleyan v Bates (@Bates) - Last year, Wes and Bates tied 1-1, although Bates outshot Wes 25-12 and out SOGd them 13-8. BennettRank makes Wes a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says Bates will win 1-0. I'll say a 1-1 tie, with Bates again outshooting Wes.

Conn v Hamilton (@Hamilton) - Last year, the teams tied 3-3, with Hamilton outshooting Conn 19-14 and out SOGing them 13-7. BennettRank makes Hamilton a 2-goal favorite, while Massey says a 2-2 tie. I'll go with Massey.

Colby v Trinity (@Trinity) - Last year, Trinity beat Colby 1-0, with Trinity outshooting Colby 18-13 and out SOGing them 11-7. BennettRank makes Trinity a 2-goal favorite, while Massey says Trinity 2-1. I'm turning into a Massey fan: Trinity 2-1.

Bowdoin v Middlebury (@Middlebury) - Last year, Middlebury beat Bowdoin 2-1, outshooting them 17-10 and out SOGing them 8-5. BennettRank makes Middlebury a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says a 1-1 tie. Again, I'll go with Massey.

Williams v Amherst (@Amherst) - Last year, the teams played to a 0-0 tie, with Williams slightly outshooting Amherst 13-12 and out SOGing them 7-5. BennettRank makes Amherst a 1-goal favorite, while Massey says a 1-1 tie. I'll go out on a limb and say Williams 1-0.

Becks

#164
Games scheduled for Sun, Sept 21:

All should be easy wins over weak non-NESCAC teams.

Williams v Castleton State (@Castleton) - BennettRank makes Williams a 4-goal favorite, while Massey predicts Williams 3-0. Middlebury beat Castleton 3-0 earlier this year and Williams is better than Middlebury, so I'll say Williams 4-0.

Amherst v Lasell (@Amherst) - BennettRank makes Amherst a 4-goal favorite, while Massey say Amherst 2-0. I'll say Amherst 3-0.

Bowdoin v Maine-Farmington(@Bowdoin) - Bennett makes Bowdoin a 4-goal favorite, while Massey predicts Bowdoin 4-0. Following the rule not to buck the algorithms when they agree, I'll also say Bowdoin 4-0.