MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

Started by Board Mod, February 28, 2005, 11:18:51 AM

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Gregory Sager

#47115
Too many pollsters refuse to rip up their ballots from the week before and re-examine everything, top to bottom, from one week to the next. They simply use their previous week's ballot as a template and make adjustments to it from where significant wins or losses justify moving a team up or down. I'm convinced of that. It's how we still get preseason bleed in the poll at the regular season's midway point: too many conservative pollsters, or perhaps too many pollsters who don't feel that they have the time to fully re-evaluate on a weekly basis all of the teams that are reasonably worth considering.

This is nothing new. The use of the preseason poll as the takeoff point for the d3hoops.com Top 25 poll's in-season polling has been an ongoing bone of contention for two decades now on this site.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

Gregory Sager

Wednesday's games:
Augustana (12-3, 4-2) @ Elmhurst (10-5, 3-3)
Wheaton (11-4, 5-2) @ Carthage (9-6, 4-2)
Millikin (8-7, 1-5) @ Illinois Wesleyan (12-3, 5-1)
North Park (4-10, 1-5) @ Carroll (4-11, 0-6)
Finlandia (3-10) @ North Central (11-4)

Massey sez:
Augustana 78, Elmhurst 72   AC 72%, EC 28%
Carthage 78, Wheaton 76   CC 57%, WC 43%
Illinois Wesleyan 76, Millikin 63   IWU 90%, MU 10%
Carroll 69, North Park 65   CU 65%, NPU 35%
North Central 92,  Finlandia 57   NCC 100%, Finlandia 0%
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

duckfan41

Impressive showing last week from the Thunder have them back in the ORV category with 2 votes. Another school down the road received 1  ;). That game on Saturday was one of the most entertaining I've been to, and showed everyone Wheaton and North Central are two tough draws from here on out.

Congratulations to Aston Francis on his third CCIW POW honor, after averaging 35.5 (!) points per game and 7 (!) rebounds. He also was listed on the Bevo Francis Award Top 100 watch list along with Sorenson who is nearly averaging a Double-Double on the season.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 15, 2018, 11:18:12 PM
Too many pollsters refuse to rip up their ballots from the week before and re-examine everything, top to bottom, from one week to the next. They simply use their previous week's ballot as a template and make adjustments to it from where significant wins or losses justify moving a team up or down. I'm convinced of that. It's how we still get preseason bleed in the poll at the regular season's midway point: too many conservative pollsters, or perhaps too many pollsters who don't feel that they have the time to fully re-evaluate on a weekly basis all of the teams that are reasonably worth considering.

This is nothing new. The use of the preseason poll as the takeoff point for the d3hoops.com Top 25 poll's in-season polling has been an ongoing bone of contention for two decades now on this site.

True, but also understandable.  Unless voters are SERIOUSLY compensated (as in part-time job compensated), it's just not realistic to expect them to start from scratch each and every week.  Taking a totally fresh look at least once or twice a season IS however a fair expectation.  By January 15th, STILL clinging to preseason expectations and past history is just not taking THIS season seriously.  And I can see no other possible explanation for why Augie is STILL top 10, while IWU finally barely cracked the top 25 (#23), and NCC and Wheaton are barely receiving votes at all.

The same phenomenon is happening with Adrian in the MIAA.  They FINALLY got 13 points in today's poll (first points ever?); they are currently 13-2, 4-0, in a slightly above average league.  They have no real history of success, and just last season were 7-18, 1-13.  I can certainly understand being wary of voting for them early on, but January 15th seems a bit belated for receiving even ONE measly vote!

AndOne

#47119
Perhaps the solution is to replace the voters every 2 or 3 years. It could be done on a staggered basis rather than en masse.
And why do voters have to be coaches, SID's, or media members?
Is there any guarantee that, say, a SID at a school in Massachusetts knows any more about a school in Illinois, Wisconsin, or Washington than a fan in one of those states (or any other state) who closely follows D3 sports?
Are all coaches, SIDs, and media members always going to vote objectively, especially when the choice might be between their school or a close rival?

AndOne

Quote from: duckfan41 on January 15, 2018, 11:35:08 PM
Impressive showing last week from the Thunder have them back in the ORV category with 2 votes. Another school down the road received 1  ;). That game on Saturday was one of the most entertaining I've been to, and showed everyone Wheaton and North Central are two tough draws from here on out.

Congratulations to Aston Francis on his third CCIW POW honor, after averaging 35.5 (!) points per game and 7 (!) rebounds. He also was listed on the Bevo Francis Award Top 100 watch list along with Sorenson who is nearly averaging a Double-Double on the season.

Ah, as far as an impressive showing, it seems it was the Thunder who was on the receiving end of a bolt unleashed by "another school down the road"  :)

Aston Francis is an unbelievable talent. He can, seemingly effortlessly, drain 3 pointers from NBA range.
But it took him 26 shots to register 28 points from the field on Saturday night. And, none of those points came in the last 6 or so minutes when they were most needed by his team. For good measure, he threw in 6 turnovers.
31 points is impressive. But the 31 point game comes with other, less attractive, attachables.
Given the above, it doesn't seem like another choice would have been an egregious miscarriage of justice.  ;)

iwu70

AO, if you think Francis is a unique talent, you should have seen Colin Lake and his 46 against IWU last game.  The guy was stone cold out of it -- in another zone.  Luckily, Rose and Bonnett matched him. 

Yes, I agree with the view that Augie should be lower in the poll and NCC higher. 

Some great games upcoming -- this week the one to watch, me thinks, is WC vs. CC. 

IWU'70


Gregory Sager

#47122
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 15, 2018, 11:42:23 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 15, 2018, 11:18:12 PM
Too many pollsters refuse to rip up their ballots from the week before and re-examine everything, top to bottom, from one week to the next. They simply use their previous week's ballot as a template and make adjustments to it from where significant wins or losses justify moving a team up or down. I'm convinced of that. It's how we still get preseason bleed in the poll at the regular season's midway point: too many conservative pollsters, or perhaps too many pollsters who don't feel that they have the time to fully re-evaluate on a weekly basis all of the teams that are reasonably worth considering.

This is nothing new. The use of the preseason poll as the takeoff point for the d3hoops.com Top 25 poll's in-season polling has been an ongoing bone of contention for two decades now on this site.

True, but also understandable.  Unless voters are SERIOUSLY compensated (as in part-time job compensated), it's just not realistic to expect them to start from scratch each and every week.

Before I agree with you, I'd like to know how much time, on average, our pollsters put in on their ballots every week.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 15, 2018, 11:42:23 PMTaking a totally fresh look at least once or twice a season IS however a fair expectation.  By January 15th, STILL clinging to preseason expectations and past history is just not taking THIS season seriously.  And I can see no other possible explanation for why Augie is STILL top 10, while IWU finally barely cracked the top 25 (#23), and NCC and Wheaton are barely receiving votes at all.

The same phenomenon is happening with Adrian in the MIAA.  They FINALLY got 13 points in today's poll (first points ever?); they are currently 13-2, 4-0, in a slightly above average league.  They have no real history of success, and just last season were 7-18, 1-13.  I can certainly understand being wary of voting for them early on, but January 15th seems a bit belated for receiving even ONE measly vote!

It's working in the opposite direction, too.  The pollsters' love affair with MIT and Lycoming continues; they're both in the top ten this week in spite of the fact that Massey has their respective strength of schedules at #160 and #262. And Middlebury, which was the whipping boy in the Top 25 room a week or so ago, is still ranked sixteenth in spite of absorbing three losses already against a #154 SOS.

MIT is a bit of an anomaly in terms of anchoring bias, because the Engineers were only an ORV in the preseason poll with a fairly paltry 17 points. But Lyco (preseason #22) and Middlebury (preseason #8) are definitely still benefiting from the anchoring bias taken from the preseason poll. (Incidentally, while I don't doubt that Adrian is a solid team this year, the Bulldogs have a not-great #157 Massey SOS as well. But Massey's got them right on the heels of 35th-rated Lyco at 37th.) Ken's HAL 9000 has Middlebury rated 44th, a place where one should not see a team ranked sixteenth in the d3hoops.com poll.

Quote from: AndOne on January 15, 2018, 11:55:44 PMAnd why do voters have to be coaches, SID's, or media members?

They don't. At least a couple of the d3sports.com staff guys are pollsters, unless you're counting them as media. And Bob used to be one, too.

Quote from: AndOne on January 15, 2018, 11:55:44 PM
Is there any guarantee that, say, a SID at a school in Massachusetts knows any more about a school in Illinois, Wisconsin, or Washington than a fan in one of those states (or any other state) who closely follows D3 sports?

No, but "a fan ... who closely follows D3 sports" is a pretty subjective and guess-heavy category in and of itself.

Quote from: AndOne on January 15, 2018, 11:55:44 PMAre all coaches, SIDs, and media members always going to vote objectively, especially when the choice might be between their school or a close rival?

I can recall an insider (Pat or Dave, probably) saying that they couldn't ever recall a pollster exhibiting bias in terms of their ballots being outliers in terms of how their school's team fared. As for close rivals, that's really a matter of temperament, isn't it? Some coaches would vote against a close rival out of animosity. Others would vote in favor of a close rival out of a desire to bolster their league's appearance. It's all so subjective, and there's no way that you can prove that sort of bias because, unless you know the coach or get a comment from him about that rival on the record in an unguarded moment, you'd never know which way he leans. It's likely that most of them would try to be fair and objective, anyway, as a matter of professionalism.

Quote from: iwu70 on January 16, 2018, 01:30:18 AM
AO, if you think Francis is a unique talent, you should have seen Colin Lake and his 46 against IWU last game.

He's seen Colin Lake live and up close plenty of times, Mark. In fact, that Mark (I think we have an unofficial rule that every CCIW school represented by posters on these boards has to have one named Mark ;)) is probably Colin's biggest advocate on CCIW Chat who doesn't have a wardrobe full of royal blue and gold clothing. Witness this post of his from last month:

Quote from: AndOne on December 04, 2017, 12:25:57 AM
Not that it means anything, but here's a vote for NPU's Colin Lake for all conference. I hope he gets enough votes that count. I think he deserves a spot.

Quote from: iwu70 on January 16, 2018, 01:30:18 AMThe guy was stone cold out of it -- in another zone.  Luckily, Rose and Bonnett matched him

Almost matched him.

Lake = 46
Rose & Bonnett = 45

;)
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

iwu70

I'd vote for Francis, Lake and Brady Rose for first team CCIW. 

Likely Sorenson and ? to round out the first team -- perhaps Raridon? 

Surely depends to some degree now on which teams rise to the top, who wins the CCIW championship.

'70

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 16, 2018, 02:37:58 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 15, 2018, 11:42:23 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 15, 2018, 11:18:12 PM
Too many pollsters refuse to rip up their ballots from the week before and re-examine everything, top to bottom, from one week to the next. They simply use their previous week's ballot as a template and make adjustments to it from where significant wins or losses justify moving a team up or down. I'm convinced of that. It's how we still get preseason bleed in the poll at the regular season's midway point: too many conservative pollsters, or perhaps too many pollsters who don't feel that they have the time to fully re-evaluate on a weekly basis all of the teams that are reasonably worth considering.

This is nothing new. The use of the preseason poll as the takeoff point for the d3hoops.com Top 25 poll's in-season polling has been an ongoing bone of contention for two decades now on this site.

True, but also understandable.  Unless voters are SERIOUSLY compensated (as in part-time job compensated), it's just not realistic to expect them to start from scratch each and every week.

Before I agree with you, I'd like to know how much time, on average, our pollsters put in on their ballots every week.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on January 15, 2018, 11:42:23 PMTaking a totally fresh look at least once or twice a season IS however a fair expectation.  By January 15th, STILL clinging to preseason expectations and past history is just not taking THIS season seriously.  And I can see no other possible explanation for why Augie is STILL top 10, while IWU finally barely cracked the top 25 (#23), and NCC and Wheaton are barely receiving votes at all.

I agree with the use of the pre-season poll, quite honestly.  I know why we do it from the beginning, but it would be easier to start in January, for that reason.

In a typical year, I'll blow my poll up every week from Thanksgiving to Epiphany, pretty much - from there it's generally easy enough to move teams around - until the end of the year, where I generally start from scratch after conference tournaments.  This year: lots more implosions.  I just don't want to start sliding teams up and down until I feel fairly confident I had the poll close to right in the first place.

This is just a very difficult year.  I'd say almost every team in the Top 25 feels too high - I should say "every team in my Top 25."
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

kiko

Quote from: Gregory Sager on January 16, 2018, 02:37:58 AM

Quote from: iwu70 on January 16, 2018, 01:30:18 AMThe guy was stone cold out of it -- in another zone.  Luckily, Rose and Bonnett matched him

Almost matched him.

Lake = 46
Rose & Bonnett = 45

;)

So should we be congratulating Illinois Wesleyan, or not?  ::)

WUPHF

Quote from: iwu70 on January 16, 2018, 04:54:23 AM
I'd vote for Francis, Lake and Brady Rose for first team CCIW. 

Likely Sorenson and ? to round out the first team -- perhaps Raridon? 

Surely depends to some degree now on which teams rise to the top, who wins the CCIW championship.

Raridon on the first team at this point in the season would provide for an interesting discussion of anchoring bias.

kiko

#47127
Quote from: WUH on January 16, 2018, 08:33:46 AM
Quote from: iwu70 on January 16, 2018, 04:54:23 AM
I'd vote for Francis, Lake and Brady Rose for first team CCIW. 

Likely Sorenson and ? to round out the first team -- perhaps Raridon? 

Surely depends to some degree now on which teams rise to the top, who wins the CCIW championship.

Raridon on the first team at this point in the season would provide for an interesting discussion of anchoring bias.

I think the fifth first-teamer will be someone from Augustana -- probably Orange.  I expect they will make the dance, and don't see a team of that caliber not being represented on the first team.

Raridon has really sacrificed his scoring numbers since moving to the point, but the Cardinals are a much better team with him there versus other configurations.  I personally see him as landing somewhere on the second or third team, though he is IMO North Central's most valuable (as opposed to most outstanding) player.

GoPerry

Quote from: kiko on January 16, 2018, 10:02:35 AM
Quote from: WUH on January 16, 2018, 08:33:46 AM
Quote from: iwu70 on January 16, 2018, 04:54:23 AM
I'd vote for Francis, Lake and Brady Rose for first team CCIW. 

Likely Sorenson and ? to round out the first team -- perhaps Raridon? 

Surely depends to some degree now on which teams rise to the top, who wins the CCIW championship.

Raridon on the first team at this point in the season would provide for an interesting discussion of anchoring bias.

I think the fifth first-teamer will be someone from Augustana -- probably Orange.  I expect they will make the dance, and don't see a team of that caliber not being represented on the first team.

Raridon has really sacrificed his scoring numbers since moving to the point, but the Cardinals are a much better team with him there versus other configurations.  I personally see him as landing somewhere on the second or third team, though he is IMO North Central's most valuable (as opposed to most outstanding) player.

Raridon is averaging about 13pts/game, 6 rebs, 6 assts for both overall and conference only.  Leading the league in asst/to.  There are 8 first teamers now right?  Raridon will be one of them, and he should be.

titanalum94

Yes 8 first team and 8 second team. Positions don't matter on it either. I'd count on Jeremy Ireland making an appearance on the first team too with 17.2/8.7 in the CCIW so far.