Potential Playoff Selections / Seedings

Started by HScoach, October 26, 2008, 11:11:24 AM

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Ralph Turner

Quote from: TigerOldSchool on November 09, 2008, 04:09:00 PM
I hope Oxy does not get shafted again (although we all know why with the $$) and gets a home game.  Maybe the Pres-Elect can make a guest appearance since he's not too busy.

Wartburg at Williamette
Redlands at Occidental
Carleton/St J at WSP
WWW at Monmouth

1 flight and no North.
How do the Redlands fans feel about a first round rematch with Oxy versus flying elsewhere for a first round game?

That is assuming that the West gets 2 Pool C bids.

usee

I have a question for you guys who study this more than I do (and I actually study it a fair amount  :) )

Last year was a 1st for the committee in that they seemed to pick what was the top 4 seeds and make brackets around them. I know they consider geography strongly but it seems last year it was obvious with no clear #1 in the east to move MUC. It could certainly happen again this year if Cortland loses to Ithaca. But here is my question:

If the current rankings hold through this weekend, are we sure the committee won't move an undefeated #2 into a #1 slot in another region? If they are committed to getting the 4 best teams how do they compare #2 North with #1 west? they obviously have some discussion because they clearly seed all the #1's to create the semifinal matchups.

theoriginalupstate

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2008, 10:22:54 AM
I have a question for you guys who study this more than I do (and I actually study it a fair amount  :) )

Last year was a 1st for the committee in that they seemed to pick what was the top 4 seeds and make brackets around them. I know they consider geography strongly but it seems last year it was obvious with no clear #1 in the east to move MUC. It could certainly happen again this year if Cortland loses to Ithaca. But here is my question:

If the current rankings hold through this weekend, are we sure the committee won't move an undefeated #2 into a #1 slot in another region? If they are committed to getting the 4 best teams how do they compare #2 North with #1 west? they obviously have some discussion because they clearly seed all the #1's to create the semifinal matchups.

I think you may see MUC moved to the "East" again regardless of the Cortaca Jug game.  North Central has a legit case for a #1 seed in the "North" and it would be easier for them to fill out the "East" bracket with an imported team.  Other than Cortland, there really is no team that stands out in the East this year.  The winner of the Cortaca Jug is likely to be the #2 seed in the "East"....

KitchenSink

I'm thinking about the possibility that the top 3 seeds all come from the North - as they are ranked.  Put North Central in the West, and Mount Union in the East.  Millsaps gets the last piece of the #1 pie.

That bumps Willamette and Cortland St down (even if they win on Sat) and most everyone else (except in the North  :) ).  Otherwise that North bracket (or whatever it gets called this year) is pretty brutal.

Is this too far fetched?  Or is it too obvious?
What the hell was that?  That was a Drop-kick.  Drop-kick? How much is that worth?  Three points.  THREE POINTS?!

usee

Quote from: KitchenSink on November 10, 2008, 01:25:20 PM
I'm thinking about the possibility that the top 3 seeds all come from the North - as they are ranked.  Put North Central in the West, and Mount Union in the East.  Millsaps gets the last piece of the #1 pie.

That bumps Willamette and Cortland St down (even if they win on Sat) and most everyone else (except in the North  :) ).  Otherwise that North bracket (or whatever it gets called this year) is pretty brutal.

Is this too far fetched?  Or is it too obvious?

2 things:

1-It might be a great idea and something the committee seriously considers. Since last year's breakthrough of them picking the 4 best teams and seeding them we don't know yet how they will weigh the "4 best teams" goal against other criteria like "geographical proximity to avoid 1st round flights".

2-moving 2 teams may be a little extreme given they will have to move 3 others right back into the North bracket. Then they end up moving Thomas More, Monmouth, UWW or other teams with proximity to balance things out. Moving NCC West so they can play teams that are close to them (Monmouth, UWW, etc ) is one of the benefits.

I do think moving Mt Union east is more likley than NCC west simply because no one can argue Mt Union is a #1 over Cortland state. It's a little harder to prove NCC is better than Willamette.

Bob.Gregg

If Cortland State wins Saturday and finishes regular season at 10-0, there is NO justification for importing a team, any team, as the East #1.

None whatsoever.
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

theoriginalupstate

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 11, 2008, 07:04:47 AM
If Cortland State wins Saturday and finishes regular season at 10-0, there is NO justification for importing a team, any team, as the East #1.

None whatsoever.

So what if North Central and MUC win on Saturday? Doesnt North Central deserve to be a #1 seed? 

Last year the NCAA set this up to pick the 4 best teams and have them #1 seeds, it will probably happen again with the East not having a clear #2 seed after the RPI loss...

Bob.Gregg

#157
Quote from: Upstate on November 11, 2008, 07:38:13 AM
So what if North Central and MUC win on Saturday? Doesnt North Central deserve to be a #1 seed? 

Last year the NCAA set this up to pick the 4 best teams and have them #1 seeds, it will probably happen again with the East not having a clear #2 seed after the RPI loss...

For me, if Cortland State wins Saturday (10-0), I could care less what MUC, NCC or anybody else in the NORTH does on Saturday.  Cortland will have gone through the season unbeaten, including a four-week stretch where they beat the three teams immediately behind them in the standings.  Cortland will have taken on all comers and remained upright when the day ended.

For my money, the AA's HEAVY emphasis on REGIONAL dictates that while somebody MAY get imported into the East, it will be as the #2, NOT the #1.  Cortland, with a win over Ithaca, will have EARNED, on the field against their regional competition, the #1 spot.

And, IF Cortland wins and the AA ships in a #1, I'll immediately start a email/snailmail campaign to eliminate all references to REGION in the criteria.  You can not tell teams for YEARS that region games are the most important, then, when a team wins all of their games, most/all In-Region, that there's another team from another region who didn't play a single team in your region who is going to be the top seed in that region.

Holding steady at 28...
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Pat Coleman

I know you're speaking hypothetically, but of course, Mount Union did play a team from the East, a playoff contender at that, and played them well.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

usee

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 11, 2008, 11:37:23 AM
Quote from: Upstate on November 11, 2008, 07:38:13 AM
So what if North Central and MUC win on Saturday? Doesnt North Central deserve to be a #1 seed? 

Last year the NCAA set this up to pick the 4 best teams and have them #1 seeds, it will probably happen again with the East not having a clear #2 seed after the RPI loss...

For me, if Cortland State wins Saturday (10-0), I could care less what MUC, NCC or anybody else in the NORTH does on Saturday.  Cortland will have gone through the season unbeaten, including a four-week stretch where they beat the three teams immediately behind them in the standings.  Cortland will have taken on all comers and remained upright when the day ended.

For my money, the AA's HEAVY emphasis on REGIONAL dictates that while somebody MAY get imported into the East, it will be as the #2, NOT the #1.  Cortland, with a win over Ithaca, will have EARNED, on the field against their regional competition, the #1 spot.

And, IF Cortland wins and the AA ships in a #1, I'll immediately start a email/snailmail campaign to eliminate all references to REGION in the criteria.  You can not tell teams for YEARS that region games are the most important, then, when a team wins all of their games, most/all In-Region, that there's another team from another region who didn't play a single team in your region who is going to be the top seed in that region.

Holding steady at 28...

Bob,

your post brings up the exact question we don't have the answer to. That is the tension between last year's effort to make the BEST teams top seeds and the stated desire to keep the regional integrity. So the options are 1-leave it all as is with 5 undefeated teams loaded up in the North (certainly plenty of precedents for this action). 2-Move MUC east as #1 (a precedent for this as well albeit not with an undefeated sitting there) or 3-Move North Central west as a #1 or #2 (this balances out the bracket a little better but there is no precedent for this I don't believe). There are certainly variations of these scenarios but the key here is the committee clearly stated they want to try to get the best teams to play at the end of the bracket so balancing them out is a higher priority than in years past. We just haven't seen enough to know how/if they will do it.

Bob.Gregg

SJF IS a playoff contender, and MUC beat them handily.

SJF struggled to beat the bottom-feeders in their own conference and now must beat Alfred or their "contending" will become "pretending".

I was musing hypothetical.

In the absence of teams (clearly) meeting the criteria, I don't have a real issue with importation.  A 10-0 SUNY-Cortland CLEARLY meets the criteria to be the #1 seed in its region.

If that means MUC & NCC are #1 & #2 in the North or one of them (NCC) gets shipped somewhere else, so be it.  But Cortland will have done nothing to merit being bumped down the ladder.  IM(not so humble)O
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

HScoach

Without the bracket shake up fom last year, the brackets would be obvious.  But with MUC and WWW moving regions in '07, it makes this season very uncertain.

I think if Cortland finishes 10-0, the MUC stays in the north.  If they lose, then MUC heads east.  Cortland's resume over Montclaire, Rowan, Ithaca, etc stands up very well with the other top teams.  It's not like they went 10-0 in the PAC or NCAC ;D

Where it gets interesting is what happens to North Central if MUC stays in the North?  The West might be short a team and is NCC a better 1 seed than Willamette?  I think so, but being a north region guy, I'm sure that I'm biased.   

I'm also pulling for NCC and MUC to be in separate brackets just to see if the CCIW is as good as I think it is.  Historically over the last 15 years, very few teams have consistently played Mount tougher that the CCIW champion.  The CCIW's playoff record is around .500, but almost every one of those losses has come at Mount Union.

If I had my preference (with perfectly selfish reasons factored in), here'd be my brackets:

#1 Mount Union (North)

#2 Cortland State (East)

#3 North Central (West)

#4 Millsaps (South)
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Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Ralph Turner

#162
Quote from: hscoach on November 11, 2008, 12:09:30 PM
...

If I had my preference (with perfectly selfish reasons factored in), here'd be my brackets:

#1 Mount Union (North)

#2 Cortland State (East)

#3 North Central (West)

#4 Millsaps (South)

The NWC is no slouch of a conference either.  The NWC is the only conference with multiple national champions, and multiple members with Stagg appearances, since the Pools began.   Let's leave Willamette as the #1 in the West!  ;)

Pirat

I think the idea of moving NCC to the West has merit but I don't agree that WU should be the #1 seed. Very recent history (last year and this year) indicates to me that my conference has lost some of its stature.  We couldn't even get a team in the damn thing last year. 

My West might look like this until Saturday's results are in:

North Central
UW-Stevens Point
Willamette
UW-Whitewater
Occidental
Wartburg
St. John's
Monmouth

redswarm81

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 11, 2008, 07:04:47 AM
If Cortland State wins Saturday and finishes regular season at 10-0, there is NO justification for importing a team, any team, as the East #1.

None whatsoever.

There's certainly no justification in the Selection/Seeding Criteria.

I agree with you.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977