2019 Pool C

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 21, 2019, 03:03:33 PM

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USee

Quote from: Captainred81 on November 08, 2019, 04:30:33 PM
I would have to drop that last #1 seed to either Muhlenberg or Wheaton.  I think that the secondary criteria will come in to play, and Muhlenberg has the most recent playoff success.  It also gives a the a true eastern team a bracket. 

IMO, Wheaton is truly the best team out there and should garner home field in their bracket. 

I also think the assumption is that Mount and UMHB will be on opposing sides of the bracket and would only meet in the Stagg.  Is there a foundation for this, or is it possible that last year's championship game could be this year's semi-final? 

Lastly, I'm sure every year pool C is super difficult to decide whose in and whose out, but this year seems worse than normal.  I feel like if all the teams that are in the mix currently win out, and I think there are 7 teams, there will be more controversy than normal.  The last team in will have as must justification for be selected, as the last team out will.  I don't know.  This year just seems much more gray than normal.

As Wally indicated the next 8 days will change the profile of both the #1 seed outlook as well as the Pool C discussion. What we don't know is whether the waters get clearer or muddier with the games yet to be played.

For Pool A, the criteria will likely dictate and if all the teams win out, the SOS and RRO criteria could be pretty close for Wheaton/Salisbury/Muhlenberg. In that case Muhlenberg's playoff appearance last year could be a differentiator. What I don't know is if SOS's are all similar and Wheaton is 2-0 RRO vs 1-0 for the others, is that enough?

For Pool C, there is a lot riding on these games. This could become an easy Pool C pickem year or it could just as easily become the toughest year ever. MHB v TLU, Ithaca v Cortland, UWW v UWO, Bethel v UST, NCC v IWU, and several other games could all impact the picture there substantially. And something as simple as Hobart getting ranked in the East could change the fortunes of NCC and the OAC runner-up. There is a lot to digest and we will have to let it play out.

I am pretty sure, whatever happens, that the D3.com team will have a pretty accurate take on what is likely to happen in their final projection a week from tomorrow after the final games are played. They always do.

DChicks

How much of Redland's pool-C case depends upon Linfield winning out (assuming Redlands does win out)? Right now Redlands has a very strong SoS and is 1-1 against RRO, but their RRO will weaken over the next two weeks, and if (God forbid) Linfield were not to win out, then they would fall out of the regional rankings, leaving Redlands 0-1 against RRO. Obviously their case for pool-C would weaken, but would this prove fatal to their pool-C hopes?

wally_wabash

Quote from: DChicks on November 08, 2019, 06:51:00 PM
How much of Redland's pool-C case depends upon Linfield winning out (assuming Redlands does win out)? Right now Redlands has a very strong SoS and is 1-1 against RRO, but their RRO will weaken over the next two weeks, and if (God forbid) Linfield were not to win out, then they would fall out of the regional rankings, leaving Redlands 0-1 against RRO. Obviously their case for pool-C would weaken, but would this prove fatal to their pool-C hopes?

I don't know about fatal, but it's definitely not good.  In my view, even if Redlands' SOS drops precipitously in the next two games (it will), they are buoyed by Linfield.  I don't think their SOS can fall off to a point where 1-loss Redlands with a  h2h win over 1-loss Linfield can justifiably be ranked below the team they beat.  So Linfield is UR's floor.  If Linfield loses, that floor gets obliterated, and now Redlands gets a little more directly compared with maybe Bethel or the best of the non-champ WIACs.  They could potentially lose their spot at the top of the at-large queue in the West region, no doubt. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Inkblot

#273
I'll be updating this throughout the day.

Rundown of the Pool A races:

ARC: Central gets it with a win next week; Wartburg gets it with a win and a Central loss. If both lose, a three- or four-way tie could result.
ASC: Mary Hardin–Baylor has CLINCHED.
Centennial: Muhlenberg has CLINCHED.
CCIW: Wheaton has CLINCHED.
CCC: Western New England has CLINCHED.
ECFC: SUNY Maritime has CLINCHED.
Empire 8: Brockport has CLINCHED.
HCAC: Hanover has CLINCHED.
Liberty: Union has CLINCHED.
MASCAC: Framingham State has CLINCHED.
MIAA: Hope has CLINCHED.
MAC: Delaware Valley has CLINCHED.
MWC: Monmouth will meet St. Norbert next week for the title.
MIAC: St. John's has CLINCHED.
NEWMAC: MIT gets it if they beat Springfield next week; if Springfield wins, WPI gets it with a win, otherwise Springfield does.
NJAC: Salisbury has CLINCHED.
NCAC: Wabash has CLINCHED.
NACC: Aurora has CLINCHED.
NWC: Linfield has CLINCHED.
OAC: Mount Union has CLINCHED.
ODAC: Bridgewater has CLINCHED.
PAC: Case Western Reserve has CLINCHED.
SAA: Berry gets it with a win next week; Trinity gets it with a win and a Berry loss. If both lose, a three-way tie could result.
SCIAC: Chapman has CLINCHED.
UMAC: Martin Luther has CLINCHED.
USA South: Huntingdon gets it with a win next week. If they lose, anything could happen. I don't know how Brevard's ineligibility affects tiebreakers with Huntingdon, Averett, and North Carolina Wesleyan.
WIAC: Winner of UW Whitewater at UW Oshkosh next week gets it.
Moderator of /r/CFB. https://inkblotsports.com. Twitter: @InkblotSports.

Inkblot

So is Wartburg a serious Pool C candidate?
Moderator of /r/CFB. https://inkblotsports.com. Twitter: @InkblotSports.

MonroviaCat

#275
Quote from: Inkblot on November 09, 2019, 05:24:59 PM
So is Wartburg a serious Pool C candidate?
yes---unless they lose again next week.
Go Cats!

hazzben

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2019, 05:32:18 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on November 09, 2019, 05:24:59 PM
So is Wartburg a serious Pool C candidate?
yes---unless they lose again next week.
Or if Central loses to Coe. That still a big game in the ARC next week.

sju56321

Interesting-who would be second on the west list after Redlands for pool C-bethel or wartburg if they both win next week?
After his second touchdown catch in a record-setting day, St. John's receiver Will Gillach pointed skyward. That, folks, was for former head coach John Gagilardi. The legendary coach of the Johnnies for 60 seasons and 64 in college overall died Sunday. He was 91. His 489 victories are most in college football history in any division.

Baldini

Quote from: sju56321 on November 09, 2019, 07:33:57 PM
Interesting-who would be second on the west list after Redlands for pool C-bethel or wartburg if they both win next week?

Bethel

MonroviaCat

Quote from: Baldini on November 09, 2019, 08:00:18 PM
Quote from: sju56321 on November 09, 2019, 07:33:57 PM
Interesting-who would be second on the west list after Redlands for pool C-bethel or wartburg if they both win next week?

Bethel
at first I was like, duh...but I dunno.  I think Wartburg will have the higher SOS and they will both likely be 0-1 against Regionally ranked opponents.....will be an interseting one
Go Cats!

Baldini

After tonight's games their is only one week left to play, but their is much yet to be determined. One scenario that may occur is if St. Thomas beats Bethel next week, the ARC and SCIAC might be a 2 bid leagues and the MIAC and the WIAC would probably be one bid leagues. Who would of gave that a chance when the season started?

MonroviaCat

Quote from: Baldini on November 09, 2019, 08:58:20 PM
After tonight's games their is only one week left to play, but their is much yet to be determined. One scenario that may occur is if St. Thomas beats Bethel next week, the ARC and SCIAC might be a 2 bid leagues and the MIAC and the WIAC would probably be one bid leagues. Who would of gave that a chance when the season started?
Right?  Could end up having a very different looking bracket this year.
Go Cats!

hazzben

#282
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2019, 08:20:17 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 09, 2019, 08:00:18 PM
Quote from: sju56321 on November 09, 2019, 07:33:57 PM
Interesting-who would be second on the west list after Redlands for pool C-bethel or wartburg if they both win next week?

Bethel
at first I was like, duh...but I dunno.  I think Wartburg will have the higher SOS and they will both likely be 0-1 against Regionally ranked opponents.....will be an interseting one

Sounds like the reason GAC didn't get ranked and Martin Luther did was that the committee considered UST the next best team in the MIAC. So they took 1 loss ML over 2 loss UST. Now that GAC and UST have played and there's a common opponent, can UST jump ML in the regional rankings? GAC monkey stomped ML. UST just monkey stomped GAC. That might be a tipping point in how the West sorts out the Redlands, Wartburg, Central, Bethel, Linfield quagmire.

RRO with current rankings:
Redlands 1-1
Central 1-0
Bethel 0-1
Linfield 0-1
Wartburg 0-1
Martin Luther 0-0

Wart's SOS will be better than Bethel's. What hurts Bethel is both SJU and UST have head scratching losses (depressing SJU's Regional Ranking and ensuring that if Bethel beats UST, they are no longer a RRO). UST getting ranked means SJU is 2-0 vs. RRO. Enough to push SJU above Redlands? If so, does that bump Bethel above Wartburg because of the quality of opponent? I really have no idea how they sort out that quagmire.

My gut says Bethel and Redlands should be the top two (Bethel blowing up ARC champ Wartburg pretty handily last year in the playoffs is no small part of that opinion). I'd bet Linfield would beat Wartburg, but SOS doesn't favor Linfield in criteria (bit of a moot point since they are Pool A at this point).

Central still faces Coe next Saturday and Bethel has a huge game against UST.

Inkblot

21 of the Pool A teams are clear (assuming the NCAC doesn't do something weird with tiebreakers). The MWC and WIAC have winner-take-all games next week, while the ARC, NEWMAC, SAA, and USA South have multiple scenarios in play.
Moderator of /r/CFB. https://inkblotsports.com. Twitter: @InkblotSports.

hazzben

#284
Games Most Likely to have Pool C Implications:

Central v. Coe - Central W means Pool A, L means Wart (with a W) gets Auto and Central is likely out.
Wartburg v. Loras - W keeps Pool C in play, L means Pool A or bust (potential for 4 way tie in ARC and I think Wart wins due to H2H criteria)
Ithaca v. Cortland - Cortland W and they are in play, Ithaca W and they are both out.
JCU v. Baldwin Wallace - JCU W and they have a chance, BW W and they are likely both out.
WPI v. Norwich - W and they have faint Pool C life. If Springfield beats MIT and WPI wins, WPI gets Pool A.
UWO v. UWW - W for UWO means Pool A, and UWW thrown into the top of Pool C mix.
Bethel v. UST - W for Bethel and Pool C in play. L and out.

*I only listed one loss teams playing above .500 opponents.

Strong Pool C candidates with likely wins on Saturday:

Redlands, Wesley, NCC, Susquehanna (listed in the order Wally picked them during the simulation last week)