Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Messages - jknezek

#46
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 18, 2023, 03:10:02 PM
Well I said heading in to the tournament W&L got a good draw with their home pod. I also said they hadn't beaten a solid top 25 team all season. Now they've beaten 2 in a row in regular time. This is Tufts 4th home loss since the start of the 2017 season. Any win on their turf is an excellent win. And can I just say it feels really good to eliminate a NESCAC team after being knocked out by NESCAC teams 2 of the last 3 tournaments?

The three tournament matchups are W&L's only 3 games against NESCAC opponents, not overly surprising as W&L was mostly absent from the national scene, except for a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2000, until Coach Singleton arrived. So I guess it's nice to break that ice as well, as shallow as it might be.

Congratulations Generals. I'll be driving tomorrow, but you better believe I'll be keeping an eye on the game. Probably make my wife drive that part of the trip!

#47
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 17, 2023, 05:33:59 PM
It's interesting. In the final fan poll, released before tournament started, Chicago was 15, Calvin 9. By all rights, that's a pretty fair matchup in a round of 16. In 4 pods of 4, it's a 2.25 seed vs a 3.75 seed overall. Considering a 4 team pod should be 1v4 and 2v3, it's darn close.

That's the thing about having 16 teams left out of 400+. Anyone can win at any time. That's why Messiah (1) is out, North Central (6), F&M (7), Emory (T14) and Kenyon (16) are all out from the final Top 16 ranking. That's almost 1/3 (5/16). You can say, well, the seedings were wrong and they lost to good teams, but for the highly ranked teams that dropped, W&L (RV), Washington College (RV), Ohio Northern (RV), Occidental (RV), and UWEC, or 5/16 of the remainder, were outside the Top 25. UWEC wasn't even in the RV category.

To get to the Sweet 16, W&L had to beat SUNY Oneonta (18), Washington College (Otterbein T24, Kenyon 16), ONU (Lynchburg 22, Messiah 1), Occidental (Trinity TX 20), UWEC (North Central T9, UW-P 19). Everyone one of these teams had to beat at least one team ranked ahead of them.

Did the voters do a bad job? Did the committees do a bad job? No.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. For the most part, the difference between the top 5-7 schools is negligible. You can put them in order, but it's really who started faster, who had the blemish longest ago, or who has the most impressive victory. None of which are actually good measures of anything. The difference between 7 and 15 is essentially irrelevant. The difference between 10 and 25 is razor thin. The difference between 15 and 35 is basically squat. And somewhere from 25-50 is pretty much splitting hairs. Yes the groups overlap, and yes they should.

For all of us who have participated in these polls, we know anywhere you put teams in these groupings is essentially equal, you are just finding some way to justify them with a number, and rarely is that justification based on anything truly relevant.

So yeah, 2 very good teams played today in a hard fought game that sends one home. It's going to happen tomorrow a lot. Because within these final 16 teams, there isn't much difference. Some will play well, some may not. It may look like a big difference on the day, or it may look like the Chicago - Calvin razor thin match. But if you played these 8 games 10x, they would probably average out to mostly close games and probably a whole lot of overall close records.

There just isn't that much difference anywhere in the bunch.

So according to the voters, who has the easiest game in this round and who has the hardest?

Calvin (T9), Chicago (15)
St Olaf (12), UW-EC (None)
ONU (RV), CC (14)
Tufts (8), W&L (RV)

MW (2), WC (RV)
Montclair (7), Conn (5)
Amherst (3), Oxy (RV)
Cortland (6), Middlebury (4)

Well the biggest chalk should be Mary Washington or Amherst. For me, the toughest draw was not Calvin/Chicago, it's Cortland/Middlebury, followed by Montclair/Conn. The Calvin/Chicago game would have been the third most unfair out of the 8 games.

Overall, looking at the pods, the Amherst pod is by far the most brutal. Cortland/Middlebury is, in a 4 team pod, a 1 vs 1.5. That whole pod has a .75, a 1, a 1.5 and an Unranked. That's a savage pod. Not far behind is Mary Washington, with a .5, a 1.25, a 1.75, and an Unranked.

The easiest pod overall is Tufts'. That pod has a 2, a 3.5, and two Unranked. That actually leaves the Calvin, Chicago pod as second easiest, a 2.25, a 3.75, a 3, and an Unranked.
#48
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 17, 2023, 04:29:41 PM
As an exercise someone should re-rank the Sweet 16 and repod them. See what you'd come up with.
#49
We are down a voter in this last week before the playoffs, but since the poll was static I don't think it matters much. Everyone held serve and now it is time for the post-season.

Trinity will host Hardin-Simmons in Round 1
R-MC hosts Christopher Newport in Round 1
Belhaven travels to defending champ NCC in Round 1

In the first of 4 contracted Chesapeake Bowls between the ODAC and Landmark:
W&L hosts Lycoming
Bridgewater travels to Wilkes

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 11
Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC










Rank
School
Points
Weekly Change
Voter Breakdown
1
Trinity (TX) (5)
35
0
1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2
R-MC
30
0
2 , 2 , 2 , 2 , 2
3
Berry
24
0
3 , 3 , 3 , 4 , 3
4
Hardin-Simmons
21
0
4 , 4 , 4 , 3 , 4
5
Belhaven
12
0
6 , 5 , 5 , 7 , 5
6
W&L
10
0
5 , 7 , 7 , 5 , 6
7
Huntingdon
6
0
7 , 6 , 6 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
UMHB (2)

Newly Ranked: None
Dropped Out: None

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: jknezek, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, Hawks88
#50
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 12, 2023, 07:26:41 PM
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 12, 2023, 07:02:32 PM
Probably go old school and just put down sand in front of the goal.

Also why can't W&L do what Kenyon or McDaniel?  Not the first year it's been in this shape.

Not sure. It's not a lack of money. Maybe a different type of grass that doesn't hold up as well?

No idea but it is a problem if W&L wants to continue being a host late in the year.
#51
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 12, 2023, 06:53:38 PM
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 12, 2023, 06:42:41 PM
Quote from: Another Mom on November 12, 2023, 05:46:10 PM
Huh. Scuttlebut from people who know more than me is that W&L has a good chance of hosting.

If that's the case, I sure hope W&L can get it's field into shape. It looked like it was falling apart especially in front the goal by the score board.

Natural grass, late in the season, after the growing period ends. Hard to do. Watt Field hosts both men's and women's teams. It's a big ask this time of year. Not sure what can be done once it goes dormant.
#52
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 12, 2023, 06:25:39 PM
Roanoke is 40 minutes from Lexington. Not easy to get to commercial direct, but plenty of connections.  I assume these are mostly charters anyway.

Totally agree Tufts is highest seed, but D3 being mindful of flights in choosing pods is a longstanding history.
#53
Men's soccer / Re: 2023 NCAA Tournament
November 12, 2023, 06:06:16 PM
Quote from: Kuiper on November 12, 2023, 06:00:19 PM
Quote from: Another Mom on November 12, 2023, 05:46:10 PM
Huh. Scuttlebut from people who know more than me is that W&L has a good chance of hosting.

That would be kind of brutal for Colorado College to fly back to Colorado Springs and then have to fly back across the country to the southeast to play at Lexington.  I'm sure they would prefer Ohio Northern if that was possible.  I guess W& L is better than Tufts, though.

One saving grace is that under the school's unique one-class-a-time block system with 4, four-week blocks, Block 3 ends on Nov. 15 (this Wednesday) and then they have a Fall Break until Nov. 27, when Block 4 begins.  So, at least they wouldn't miss any classes traveling on Wednesday night or Thursday for a Friday game.

It's an awkward bracket travel-wise. Tufts and W&L are flight distance, 629 miles. Colorado College is flight distance from all. That leaves Ohio Northern, 419 miles from W&L, but flight distance to Tufts. So if you choose Tufts, it's 3 flights. If you chose Ohio Northern or W&L, it's 2 flights. Neither ONU or W&L has a women's team still in the tournament. By the bracket, I'd say W&L is a higher seed than Ohio Northern, so it could very well be W&L just to cut out 1 flight.
#54
Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 12, 2023, 05:54:00 PM
Quote from: tigerguy on November 12, 2023, 05:09:01 PM
Is this a joke? Texas teams already get screwed matchup wise in playoffs each year, and now they send the Trinity/Hardin Simmons winner to North Central in the second round? That is pitiful. I don't care about the "you'll have to beat them anyway" point. Trinity went undefeated in 2021 and get's matched up first round with the national champion, and now even if they win they get blessed with the defending national champ. Unreal.

Region 3 gets no respect.

I don't know. RMC has a very good draw. Island teams get no respect.
#55
About the best draw you could imagine for R-MC. Some tough teams in that bracket, as there should be for playoffs, but it's a winnable bracket very deep. Good luck YellowJackets!
#56
W&L and Wilkes claim hosting for Chesapeake Challenge. Bridgewater posts a game at Wilkes, Lycoming claims bowl birth. So the matchups will be as I thought.

W&L hosting Lycoming, Wilkes hosting Bridgewater. Not the matchup I was hoping for, but should be interesting to see how these conferences stack up.
#57
W&L and Wilkes claim hosting for Chesapeake Challenge. Bridgewater posts a game at Wilkes, Lycoming claims bowl birth. So the matchups will be as I thought.

W&L hosting Lycoming, Wilkes hosting Bridgewater. Not the matchup I was hoping for, but should be interesting to see how these conferences stack up.
#58
W&L finished strong. A good season for the Generals and they announced they will be hosting. While still alive for the playoffs, I suspect they have realistically acknowledged they don't have a shot at a Pool C.

The opponent, however, will have to wait for tomorrow apparently. Landmark Conference website shows Wilkes in the 3 spot, but not sure if that is alphabetical order or not.

With a win over Lycoming, I suspect Wilkes will be the 2, but unsure.

Congratulations to RMC on an ODAC Championship and best of luck in the playoffs. They rolled through the ODAC this year!
#59
Men's soccer / Re: D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll
November 09, 2023, 09:10:44 AM
Another vey stable week at the top, with no one in the Top 8 moving more than 2 places. A couple -4 moves down, with Trinity (TX) re-entering the poll at 20 as the strongest move up. With the Tournament starting this week we won't do any more polls until the end a Champion is crowned. I want to thank our voters once again for taking on this massive task week in and out. Even better, they continue to make this easy for me as I haven't had to chase anyone down for ballots, something I greatly appreciate.

If I get some time, I want to look at this week vs our first poll of the season and see how things stack up. Are we really good projectors of the end of the season? It will be fun to find out. Here's to a great season-ending tournament and no injuries for the student-athletes who make our fun possible!

D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 11/5/2023
National Top 25




























Rank
School
Points
Weekly Change
Voter Breakdown
1
Messiah (8)
200
0
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
2
Mary Washington
191
0
2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2
3
Amherst
180
2
5, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 3
4
Middlebury
174
-1
3, 5, 4, 8, 4, 4, 2, 4
5
Connecticut College
148
-1
4, 10, 10, 14, 7, 5, 5, 5
6
Cortland State
145
2
7, 9, 8, 4, 8, 13, 8, 6
7
Montclair State
144
1
6, 6, 9, 9, 9, 10, 7, 8
8
Tufts
132
2
8, 19, 7, 6, 10, 11, 6, 9
T9
Calvin
125
3
11, 3, 5, 21, 5, 12, 13, 13
T9
North Central (IL)
125
-3
10, 7, 11, 20, 6, 9, 9, 11
11
Franklin and Marshall
115
-4
9, 8, 12, 7, 11, 8, 22, 16
12
St. Olaf
114
1
15, 13, 6, 10, 14, 18, 11, 7
13
Carleton
85
-2
17, 11, 18, 16, 15, 10, 10
14
Colorado College
78
0
21, 12, 15, 18, 20, 6, 12
15
Chicago
73
3
14, 20, 13, 11, 22, 14, 15
16
Emory
71
-2
13, 16, 16, 12, 7, 23, 24
17
Kenyon
62
-1
18, 15, 19, 22, 13, 14, 19
18
Oneonta State
54
1
12, 25, 24, 16, 12, 17, 22
19
UW-Platteville
52
1
14, 14, 17, 20, 18, 21
20
Trinity (TX)
43
---
18, 13, 18, 20, 18
21
Christopher Newport
40
-4
16, 5, 17
22
Lynchburg
36
---
20, 22, 21, 15, 16
23
Johns Hopkins
24
---
20, 15, 25, 22, 24
T24
Bowdoin
21
-3
25, 12, 20
T24
Otterbein
21
-2
23, 17, 17

Also Receiving Votes:
Pacific Lutheran (19) , Gustavus Adolphus (18) , Case Western Reserve (16) , St. Thomas (TX) (15) , Mount Union (12) , Washington and Lee (11) , Washington College (10) , Ohio Northern (9) , Rochester (8) , Redlands (7) , Denison (5) , Babson (3) , MSOE (3) , Ohio Wesleyan (3) , UW-Whitewater (3) , Wartburg (2) , John Carroll (1) , Occidental (1) , Oglethorpe (1)

Newly Ranked: Trinity (TX), Lynchburg, Johns Hopkins
Dropped Out: Redlands (Prev:23), Mount Union (Prev:24), Washington College (Prev:25)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff, PaulNewman, Paclassic89, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Gregory Sager, FCGrizzliesGrad
#60
General football / Re: Pool C 2023
November 08, 2023, 08:59:15 AM
Quote from: USee on November 08, 2023, 08:38:06 AM
As a reference down the stretch, the RAC are made up this year as follows (the groups that pick who is regionally ranked and, starting today, what order they are in). The chair of each RAC makes up the national committee:

Region I:
John Davis (Chair) Misericordia University
Dino Pollock, Western NE
Scott Lynn, Alfred State College
Carey Eggen, Framingham State
Brian Bubna, MIT
Ed Hottle, Stevenson Univeristy

Region II:
Blaise Faggiano (Chair), Utica
Curt Fitzpatrick, Morrisville State
Devin DeWall, Hobart
Amanda DeMartino, TCNJ
Brad Fordyce, Dickinson
Geno Demarco, Geneva

Region III:
Hunter Sims (Chair), Howard Payne
Ryan Erwin, ETBU
Scott Yoder, Shenandoah
Jerheme Urban, Trinity Univ
Mike Gutelius, Catholic

Region IV:
John Snell (Chair), Baldwin Wallace
Matthew Theobald, Hanover
Jason Couch, Alma
Justin Newell, Kenyon
Scott Donaldson, Heidelberg

Region V:
Jason Imperati (Chair), Lawrence University
Jeff McMartin, Central College
Jesse Scott, Wheaton
Ben Cooprider, Grinnell
Jim Hamad, Aurora

Region VI:
Matt Moore (National Chair), Univ of NW-St Paul
Gary Fasching, St Johns
Keith Buckley, Pacific
Chris Krich, LaVerne
Robbie Schomaker, Greenville
Jace Rindahl, UWW

What the heck??? Catholic is in the Landmark, that's Region 2?? I've not seen that before.