2019 Pool C

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 21, 2019, 03:03:33 PM

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FCGrizzliesGrad

The interesting thing about Wally's pool C exercise before this weekend, the top 4 could likely still be the first four but those at the table in round 5 could all be different... Ithaca lost, Baldwin Wallace lost, Berry moved back into a pool A position, and Bethel could get pushed behind Wartburg. Likely teams to be discussed are Cortland, John Carroll, a 2 loss South team, and Wartburg/Bethel. I think whoever the west has up would get the last spot. John Carroll might have had a chance had Baldwin Wallace not lost because now if they beat them BW will have 3 losses and be out of the RR and not help.
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FCGrizzliesGrad

#286
I've come up with a bracket... I believe there's only 2 flights 1st round and 2 in the 2nd. Pool C teams were North Central, Redlands, Susquehanna, Wartburg, and Wesley. I plugged in Berry, Central, Chapman, Huntingdon, and UW-Whitewater as pool A. MWC and NEWMAC spot works with whoever ends up with them. I just grouped pods together, could probably mix them around a bit.

I know the likely scenario is west coast/Texas in a pod... but Huntingdon only reaches Berry and I think Hanover might be the only other team Berry can get to so why not throw them in the mix and let Chapman host a pod which they probably should.
I tried to choose the 8 pod leaders but that was rather hard. First 6 were easy, managed to work it to get Chapman one for the seventh and the 8th one was a struggle. Ultimately it ended up with Bridgewater but I'm not that enthusiastic about it.


UMHB (9-0) vs Redlands (8-1); Berry (8-1) vs Huntingdon (6-3)
Chapman (8-0) vs Linfield (7-1); St John's (8-1) vs Martin Luther (8-1)

UW-Whitewater (9-0) vs MWC (6-2); Central (8-1) vs North Central (8-1)
Wheaton (9-0) vs Wabash (7-2); Wartburg (8-1) vs Aurora (8-1)

Mount Union (9-0) vs SUNY Maritime (4-5); Hope (8-1) vs Hanover (8-1)
Muhlenberg (9-0) vs Framingham St (7-2); Brockport (8-1) vs Wesley (8-1)

Salisbury (8-0) vs NEWMAC; Union (9-0) vs W New England (8-1)
Bridgewater (9-0) vs Susquehanna (8-1); Case Western Reserve (9-0) vs Delaware Valley (8-1)
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

Baldini

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 10, 2019, 02:46:42 AM
I've come up with a bracket... I believe there's only 2 flights 1st round and 2 in the 2nd. Pool C teams were North Central, Redlands, Susquehanna, Wartburg, and Wesley. I plugged in Berry, Central, Chapman, Huntingdon, and UW-Whitewater as pool A. MWC and NEWMAC spot works with whoever ends up with them. I just grouped pods together, could probably mix them around a bit.

I know the likely scenario is west coast/Texas in a pod... but Huntingdon only reaches Berry and I think Hanover might be the only other team Berry can get to so why not throw them in the mix and let Chapman host a pod which they probably should.
I tried to choose the 8 pod leaders but that was rather hard. First 6 were easy, managed to work it to get Chapman one for the seventh and the 8th one was a struggle. Ultimately it ended up with Bridgewater but I'm not that enthusiastic about it.


UMHB (9-0) vs Redlands (8-1); Berry (8-1) vs Huntingdon (6-3)
Chapman (8-0) vs Linfield (7-1); St John's (8-1) vs Martin Luther (8-1)

UW-Whitewater (9-0) vs MWC (6-2); Central (8-1) vs North Central (8-1)
Wheaton (9-0) vs Wabash (7-2); Wartburg (8-1) vs Aurora (8-1)

Mount Union (9-0) vs SUNY Maritime (4-5); Hope (8-1) vs Hanover (8-1)
Muhlenberg (9-0) vs Framingham St (7-2); Brockport (8-1) vs Wesley (8-1)

Salisbury (8-0) vs NEWMAC; Union (9-0) vs W New England (8-1)
Bridgewater (9-0) vs Susquehanna (8-1); Case Western Reserve (9-0) vs Delaware Valley (8-1)

Nice work here.

3 small things I would disagree on. First, I just can't see Redlands be a first round matchup for UMHB for that seems very unfair to both parties. I don't know who should be the 8th host, but Bridgewater doesn't feel right as an option. Last is the pool C choice of Wartburg over Bethel, unless it is from projecting St. Thomas beating Bethel next weekend.

I guess the chance is there for Monmouth to win their title game and sneak in the backdoor and take the 10th spot in the final regional rankings, that would be a big plus for Wartburg.

Again, nice work and thanks for the food for thought.       

MonroviaCat

Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 06:50:46 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 10, 2019, 02:46:42 AM
I've come up with a bracket... I believe there's only 2 flights 1st round and 2 in the 2nd. Pool C teams were North Central, Redlands, Susquehanna, Wartburg, and Wesley. I plugged in Berry, Central, Chapman, Huntingdon, and UW-Whitewater as pool A. MWC and NEWMAC spot works with whoever ends up with them. I just grouped pods together, could probably mix them around a bit.

I know the likely scenario is west coast/Texas in a pod... but Huntingdon only reaches Berry and I think Hanover might be the only other team Berry can get to so why not throw them in the mix and let Chapman host a pod which they probably should.
I tried to choose the 8 pod leaders but that was rather hard. First 6 were easy, managed to work it to get Chapman one for the seventh and the 8th one was a struggle. Ultimately it ended up with Bridgewater but I'm not that enthusiastic about it.


UMHB (9-0) vs Redlands (8-1); Berry (8-1) vs Huntingdon (6-3)
Chapman (8-0) vs Linfield (7-1); St John's (8-1) vs Martin Luther (8-1)

UW-Whitewater (9-0) vs MWC (6-2); Central (8-1) vs North Central (8-1)
Wheaton (9-0) vs Wabash (7-2); Wartburg (8-1) vs Aurora (8-1)

Mount Union (9-0) vs SUNY Maritime (4-5); Hope (8-1) vs Hanover (8-1)
Muhlenberg (9-0) vs Framingham St (7-2); Brockport (8-1) vs Wesley (8-1)

Salisbury (8-0) vs NEWMAC; Union (9-0) vs W New England (8-1)
Bridgewater (9-0) vs Susquehanna (8-1); Case Western Reserve (9-0) vs Delaware Valley (8-1)

Nice work here.

3 small things I would disagree on. First, I just can't see Redlands be a first round matchup for UMHB for that seems very unfair to both parties. I don't know who should be the 8th host, but Bridgewater doesn't feel right as an option. Last is the pool C choice of Wartburg over Bethel, unless it is from projecting St. Thomas beating Bethel next weekend.

I guess the chance is there for Monmouth to win their title game and sneak in the backdoor and take the 10th spot in the final regional rankings, that would be a big plus for Wartburg.

Again, nice work and thanks for the food for thought.       
unfair is basically the standard when dealing with the west coast/Texas island teams in a playoff bracket.  Unless they are willing to shell out $ for an extra flight...
Go Cats!

Baldini

#289
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 10, 2019, 09:38:12 AM
Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 06:50:46 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 10, 2019, 02:46:42 AM
I've come up with a bracket... I believe there's only 2 flights 1st round and 2 in the 2nd. Pool C teams were North Central, Redlands, Susquehanna, Wartburg, and Wesley. I plugged in Berry, Central, Chapman, Huntingdon, and UW-Whitewater as pool A. MWC and NEWMAC spot works with whoever ends up with them. I just grouped pods together, could probably mix them around a bit.

I know the likely scenario is west coast/Texas in a pod... but Huntingdon only reaches Berry and I think Hanover might be the only other team Berry can get to so why not throw them in the mix and let Chapman host a pod which they probably should.
I tried to choose the 8 pod leaders but that was rather hard. First 6 were easy, managed to work it to get Chapman one for the seventh and the 8th one was a struggle. Ultimately it ended up with Bridgewater but I'm not that enthusiastic about it.


UMHB (9-0) vs Redlands (8-1); Berry (8-1) vs Huntingdon (6-3)
Chapman (8-0) vs Linfield (7-1); St John's (8-1) vs Martin Luther (8-1)

UW-Whitewater (9-0) vs MWC (6-2); Central (8-1) vs North Central (8-1)
Wheaton (9-0) vs Wabash (7-2); Wartburg (8-1) vs Aurora (8-1)

Mount Union (9-0) vs SUNY Maritime (4-5); Hope (8-1) vs Hanover (8-1)
Muhlenberg (9-0) vs Framingham St (7-2); Brockport (8-1) vs Wesley (8-1)

Salisbury (8-0) vs NEWMAC; Union (9-0) vs W New England (8-1)
Bridgewater (9-0) vs Susquehanna (8-1); Case Western Reserve (9-0) vs Delaware Valley (8-1)

Nice work here.

3 small things I would disagree on. First, I just can't see Redlands be a first round matchup for UMHB for that seems very unfair to both parties. I don't know who should be the 8th host, but Bridgewater doesn't feel right as an option. Last is the pool C choice of Wartburg over Bethel, unless it is from projecting St. Thomas beating Bethel next weekend.

I guess the chance is there for Monmouth to win their title game and sneak in the backdoor and take the 10th spot in the final regional rankings, that would be a big plus for Wartburg.

Again, nice work and thanks for the food for thought.       
unfair is basically the standard when dealing with the west coast/Texas island teams in a playoff bracket.  Unless they are willing to shell out $ for an extra flight...

I'm might be lost in the weeds here, but I am thinking that a quad will be made up of Chapman-Linfield, Redlands-some one shipped in. Whether they fly Redlands to somewhere or fly someone to Redlands the cost is still a flight.

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 06, 2019, 06:37:00 PM
I'm going to do a quick and dirty mock Pool C selection here this week, using today's regional rankings. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 27 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, zero Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences as there are no such teams or conferences left.
- That leaves 5 spots left which will continue to be designated as Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region (once those rankings have been scrubbed of the automatic qualifiers) using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 27 Pool A's as of this moment:


Teams in the gold boxes have clinched and are in, everybody else is still projected.  Most of the conferences left to be decided just need a conference leader to win a game they are heavily favored in this week to seal the deal, others have toss up games to deal with.  In those cases, I've projected the teams that are win-and-in over teams that need help to get the AQ (this is Berry's scenario).   

Now, we scrub the rankings from teams that I've projected in, and we are left with:

East: Wesley, Ithaca, Cortland, WPI, Wilkes
North: North Central, Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, WashU, Denison
South: Susquehanna, Berry, Randolph-Macon, Texas Lutheran, Hardin-Simmons
West: Redlands, Bethel, Central, UW-Oshkosh

These lists seems pretty solid.  There may be some shuffling down the road amongst the top of each region's list (looking at you East), but the spots where there's weirdness or a high concentration of teams from one league are far enough down on the list that they shouldn't spin this projection off into something completely unreasonable. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2E Wesley - 6-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.577 SOS (23rd)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
4W Redlands - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.620 (6th)
(Redlands, Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna)

Among the primary criteria, Redlands is tied for the top of this group in win percentage, they have defeated W6, their lone loss is to W3, and they have the best SOS on the board by a significant margin.  Wesley and North Central also have RRO wins, but Wesley's 4OT game with E3 DelVal and North Central's dismantling of W8 WashU are, to me, not as impressive as Redlands' handling of Linfield, who have been great all season outside their game with Redlands.  Bulldogs are my first selection. 

Round 2:
2E Wesley - 6-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.577 (23rd)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel)

Bethel joins the party with a similar win percentage with their lone loss and RRO result being a 19-0 shutdown against W5 St. John's.  At this stage of the game, I have a strong preference for teams that have RRO wins, which leads me back to Wesley and North Central.  In the event that the committee does have to judge Wesley and North Central at the same time, Christopher Newport may provide a rare piece of common opponent data between teams from different regions.  I don't know how much weight a common opponent results from Weeks 1 and 11 should carry, but if I'm Wesley I probably don't want to play a competitive four quarter with the Captains if I can at all avoid it.  For now, CNU has a different impact on this decision, as they are an anchor (ha) on North Central's SOS- to the degree that I'm going to choose Wesley here. 

Round 3:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel, Ithaca)

Per the last round, you can probably see that I favor North Central above the teams that do not have RRO wins.  I have to check in with Ithaca to make sure that they don't beat North Central and...they do not.  Ithaca does not have an RRO win (for now), their SOS is not overwhelmingly larger than North Central's (for now), and they have identical win percentages.  The WashU win gives North Central a clear edge here- one that isn't so clear if/when Hobart pops up in the East rankings. 

Round 4:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
5N Baldwin Wallace - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Susquehanna, Bethel, Ithaca, Baldwin Wallace)

Now I've got a board where nobody has an RRO win.  This is where things always get dicey for me.  I see that Susquehanna has the best SOS on a board with four identical win percentages.  Susquehanna lost 24-17 in OT to S2.  That's a pretty solid result.  Ithaca lost to E4 by 10, Baldwin Wallace was noncompetitive to N1 (most are, but when you're in this position, it helps to at least show a pulse in that game), and Bethel was shut out by W5.  Best SOS, best "result" IMO...the River Hawks are my choice here. 

Round 5:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
5N Baldwin Wallace - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115th)
6S Berry 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.481 (158th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Bethel, Ithaca, Baldwin Wallace, Berry)

Have to do a quick evaluation on newcomer Berry.  The Vikings have the same kind of profile that we've seen in the last couple of rounds.  Just one loss, fortunately to a ranked opponent.  But Berry's SOS suffers (largely from Maryville's downturn this year, and their loss is kind of a deceptively close 28-15 game to S9.  That definitely doesn't stack up well with the teams that were already on the board, so Berry isn't going to step right over the others and in to the tournament.  This is really a coin toss between Bethel and Ithaca.  I'm going to give the edge to Bethel on the back of their slight SOS advantage, but you can put Ithaca in the field in this spot and it wouldn't be controversial.  I went back and forth on this a few times before finalizing the post. 

There it is.  That's my five Pool C's if I had to pick them today.

It seems to me this analysis will be similar this week. What's changed is Ithaca will be out and Cortland will bump up, Wartburg is in the conversation likely above Bethel.  I think Wally's analysis is similar here and we would get Redlands, Wesley and then probably Wartburg in round 3. Susquehanna may get picked in round 4 over NCC, who loses the RRO advantage and Susquehanna's result vs S2 is slightly better than NCC's v N2. That would leave Bethel and NCC at the table for the final pick and NCC's result vs N2 may be better than Bethels' v W5ish.

If Bethel loses in week 11 to UST, NCC is probably in as the final pick. Maybe this is all wrong, I just used Wally's analysis and updated the numbers.

If UWO beats UWW this week, then Bethel and NCC may be on the wrong side of the bubble. Pool C is very competitive this year.

ncc_fan

Though it would be disappointing, I wouldn't be surprised to see Redlands @ Chapman and Linfield @ UMHB in round 1.  That requires only one flight rather than two, sends the lowest-ranked west coast team to Texas, and is consistent with past penny-pinching first round matchups.

wally_wabash

"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Baldini

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 11:18:35 AM
Who wants to tell him?

Aww go ahead you can be the one to tell him that teams from the same conference can't play each other in the 1st round.

When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

ncc_fan

Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 11:34:52 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 11:18:35 AM
Who wants to tell him?

Aww go ahead you can be the one to tell him that teams from the same conference can't play each other in the 1st round.

When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

Tell that to Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth, Texas Lutheran, and Hardin-Simmons.

hazzben

Quote from: ncc_fan on November 10, 2019, 12:27:27 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 11:34:52 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 11:18:35 AM
Who wants to tell him?

Aww go ahead you can be the one to tell him that teams from the same conference can't play each other in the 1st round.

When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

Tell that to Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth, Texas Lutheran, and Hardin-Simmons.

Historically you're correct but I believe it's a new rule this year. Which means Redlands doesn't have to play Chapman, but gets a potential trip to UMHB instead.

sju56321

I believe Pat said a couple weeks ago that the NCAA had agreed to pay for additional flights this year according to the chair, so it will be interesting to see what they do with that West Coast group, if in fact they can fly each one of those or somebody in to each one of those.
After his second touchdown catch in a record-setting day, St. John's receiver Will Gillach pointed skyward. That, folks, was for former head coach John Gagilardi. The legendary coach of the Johnnies for 60 seasons and 64 in college overall died Sunday. He was 91. His 489 victories are most in college football history in any division.

wally_wabash

Quote from: ncc_fan on November 10, 2019, 12:27:27 PM
Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 11:34:52 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 11:18:35 AM
Who wants to tell him?

Aww go ahead you can be the one to tell him that teams from the same conference can't play each other in the 1st round.

When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

Tell that to Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth, Texas Lutheran, and Hardin-Simmons.

This got dealt with
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 11:34:52 AM

When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

After the new RR come out on Wednesday, the D3.com staff usually does a mock selection and bracket before Saturday's games and then a final projection late Saturday after the last games.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Baldini on November 10, 2019, 11:34:52 AM
When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

I've had the chance to go through this week's results in each region now and Week 10 was quite the scrambler.  Not so much at the top of the rankings- those are going to be relatively unchanged from last week, IMO.  But the bottom of the rankings are really messy in each region.  On top of Week 10 results, this week the RACs will take into account vRRO data, a key piece of primary criteria that was not used last week. 

- In the East, Ithaca has bombed out (sorry), and I'm not sure how that will affect Union going forward.  I had seen a path here for Union to go up to 2 and Ithaca to go ahead of Wesley for the top at-large spot in the region, but that's over now.  It may be that Union's ceiling now is 4 in the East.  At the bottom, Wilkes and WPI were strange inclusions last week.  Wilkes lost, so that's not going to complicate things this week.  WPI is still there, and I think will still be ranked even with a low SOS and no vRROs to work with.  They're an outlier.  The real question is does Hobart come in, and if so how is that Week 1 win over Brockport going to work?  I think Hobart has to be there this week.  The last spot I think is up for grabs between Stevenson, Endicott, and Framingham.  Could be any of those three. 

- Down South, the bottom is just as messy.  The South is running out of even two loss teams to rank. I expect Trinity to take B-SC's place and then really not much other movement there.  Randolph-Macon may stick around because there really just aren't other teams available. 

- In the North, you have to hold your nose and rank teams with all kinds of bad SOS.  I don't know how the North's SOS, like as an entire region, is so poor.  You also run into the problem where you run out of rankable two loss teams.  I think Wabash stays in, WashU goes out, Hanover is definitely coming in, and then it's a toss up for me between OWU or BW.  I will say that as 3-loss teams, WashU and Heidelberg aren't *terrible*, but I believe the RACs as a whole last week sent a message that win percentage is huge and I think a third loss may be disqualifying regardless of the other primary criteria. 

- In the West, I think the interesting thing to watch is where Wartburg lands relative to Redlands.  Redlands' floor is Linfield and Wartburg's ceiling is Central.  So can Central get above Redlands?  Seems unlikely.  I think Redlands stays the top at-large team in the West.  The ARCs might wind up ahead of Linfield, which makes a Linfield/Chapman game not just convenient, but seed-appropriate.  That would make a lot of folks happy.   I do think Wartburg stays ahead of Bethel- Bethel may have been the biggest loser from that Central/Wartburg game.  At the bottom of this region you've got deal with the UWO/P/L chain somehow, you've got Monmouth down there also on the fringe.  Maybe they'll stick with Martin Luther even though the criteria don't really support it.  St. Thomas, I think is closer to being ranked than maybe we thought, but I still think they've got a huge UWEC common opponent problem with the other UWs that has to block them. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire