NCAA Great Lakes Region--2014

Started by gobash83, October 21, 2014, 03:27:00 PM

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gobash83

In anticipation of the first NCAA Regional Ranking, which comes out tomorrow, here is today's NSCAA ranking for the Great Lakes Region:

1 Carnegie Mellon University 11-1-0 (UAA)
2 Thomas More 14-1-0 (PAC)
3 Case Western Reserve University 8-3-3 (UAA)
4 Otterbein 8-2-4 (OAC)
5 Hanover College 11-3-0 (HCAC)
6 Capital University 10-4-1 (OAC)
7 Denison University 8-5-0 (NCAC)
8 Kenyon College 7-6-1 (NCAC)
9 Westminster College (Pa.) 12-2-1 (PAC)
10 Allegheny College 9-5-0 (NCAC)

Also receiving votes: John Carroll University (4) (OAC), Ohio Northern University (2) (OAC), University Of Pittsburgh-Bradford (2) (AMCC), Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology (1) (HCAC)

Unless there has been a significant change in the number of teams in the Great Lakes Region, I believe that the NCAA will only rank eight teams for the region.  It will be interesting to see how the rankings compare.  I suspect that the top four in each will be identical or very similar but there may be some variation in the bottom four.   

"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

woacfan

That looks just about right to me.   :)
"We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right" - Brian Clough

gobash83

Quote from: woacfan on October 21, 2014, 05:05:18 PM
That looks just about right to me.   :)

I don't necessarily disagree with you woacfan.  However, in other D3 sports, I have seen some interesting things occur in the regional rankings over the years, so you never quite know how they will turn out. 
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Well, here is the first regional ranking for the Great Lakes Region:

GREAT LAKES   
1 Carnegie Mellon 11-1-0 (UAA)
2 Thomas More 14-1-0 (PAC)
3 Case Western Reserve 8-3-3 (UAA)
4 Allegheny 10-5-0 (NCAC)
5 Denison 9-5-0 (NCAC)
6 Hanover 10-3-0 (HCAC)
7 Otterbein 8-2-4 (OAC)
8 Ohio Northern 7-5-1 (OAC)

A couple of notes.  The record shown is the "in-division" record and would not include games against non-Division III opponents.  Also, there is a note that the OAC representative did not vote in this week's rankings. Perhaps this explains the absence of some of the OAC teams that appear in the NSCAA regional ranking and the placement of others. Finally, only Carnegie Mellon, Thomas More, and Case Western are ranked in the NSCAA national poll.

Like I mentioned yesterday, I am not surprised that the top three is the same as the NSCAA's regional ranking.  I am a little surprised that the OAC didn't have a team higher than seventh, though the absence of an OAC voter may be the cause.  Time will tell how these hold over the next two rankings.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

woacfan

Gobash,

In the OAC,  the only other possible candidate would be Capital.  I think I might have put Otterbein a little higher.  JCU, B-W and maybe Mt. Union I would put just below those three.  At this point,  I would bet Otterbein wins the regular season in the OAC and I don't see them getting a loss out of their remaining games.  I bet they climb a little in the coming weeks.

ONU is a classy team....I've always liked them.  If another OAC team is represented its most likely going to be them or Cap.

Case has really come on strong lately.  They've played great against top ranked teams. Also,  I've always liked Allegheny and Denison.  I think Allegheny pretty much had their way with the OAC teams this September, so it doesn't surprise me to see them above their OAC counterparts.  It might be a little harder case for Denison.

"We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right" - Brian Clough

gobash83

Woacfan,

I guess I would have put Otterbein a little higher as well, which is the basis of my surprise.  I have seen ONU play a couple of times this season and agree.  I like their style of play and hustle.

Case has been playing well, especially against top ranked teams.  They will need to continue that effort as their next three opponents are Denison, CMU and Emory and then with Rochester.  It will be interesting to see how they weather that stretch.

Since the beginning of the season, I have thought Allegheny and Denison were the class of the NCAC.  However, Kenyon has really hit stride in conference play.  Allegheny had the advantage of hosting the conference tournament last year, which is an advantage since it is on the eastern most fringe of the conference footprint.  It will be interesting if Kenyon holds serve, ends up hosting, and it makes any difference. 
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Here are the ranked teams' winning percentage (in Division III matches) and strength of schedule:

Team                 Pct.   SOS
Carnegie Mellon   .917   .649
Thomas More   .933   .462
Case Western   .679   .623
Allegheny           .667   .577
Denison           .643   .590
Hanover           .769   .540
Otterbein           .714   .556
Ohio Northern   .577   .598

It looks like Penn St.-Behrend (.719/.529), Capital (.700/.537), Pitt-Bradford (.750/.492) and John Carroll (.714/.491) are all in the mix as well.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Here is the second round of regional rankings, with winning percentage (in Division III matches), strength of schedule, and record against other regionally ranked teams

GREAT LAKES
         
1 Carnegie Mellon           .917      .646    4-1       
2 Thomas More               .941      .468    3-1       
3 Allegheny                    .706      .564    1-1       
4 Denison                       .688      .580    4-3       
5 Otterbein                     .625      .551    1-1       
6 Case Western Reserve   .633     .625    2-4-1       
7 Hanover                        .733    .560    0-2       
8 Penn State-Behrend       .750    .524    0-0


"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Here is the latest NSCAA regional ranking: 

1 Carnegie Mellon University
2 Thomas More
3 Otterbein
4 Denison University
5 Allegheny College
6 Hanover College
7 Case Western Reserve University
8 Ohio Northern University
9 Capital University
10 Kenyon College

There are two more NCAA regional rankings to be done, one that comes out tomorrow and the final one, which is done just prior to the release of the national tournament bracket.  The final NCAA one is not made public.  NSCAA will have one more regional ranking, which comes out next Tuesday.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

The last public regional rankings by the NCAA came out today and here it is:

1 Carnegie Mellon           .933      .640    5-1       
2 Thomas More               .947      .482    3-0       
3 Allegheny                    .737      .559    1-1       
4 Denison                       .722      .575    3-3       
5 Otterbein                     .778      .538    0-1       
6 Hanover                       .765     .538    1-0       
7 Penn State-Behrend      .725     .536    0-1
8 Ohio Northern               .647     .555    2-3

No real surprises or glaring omissions from my perspective.  Case, John Carroll, Franklin, Pitt-Bradford, and Rose-Hulman are all close but also have holes (whether it is win/loss percentage, strength of schedule, or record against regionally ranked teams). It will be interesting to see how the AQs shake out, but it looks like the GL region may be able to put up at least one strong team for consideration for an at-large bid.


"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

woacfan

I can speak to the OAC Gobash.  I expect Otterbein to stay in the rankings and then it will be the winner of the Capital -Ohio Northern matchup to fill the 8 spot.  JCU is out of the mix with their loss to Capital.

As for the list,  I like Thomas More.  Both they and Carnegie could be strong at large candidates.  Alleghany and Dennison maybe just a smidge below them.
"We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right" - Brian Clough

CrusaderNation

GoBash... you missed the glaring omission of Capital!  For the third time in four years Capital throws the Regional Rankings out the window! 

It appears the Crusaders focus on winning the OAC Tourney each year because that gets them the AQ to the NCAA Tournament.  For them the regular season just means seeding and unfortunately that seems to matter to the voters.  However, in 2011 and 2013 they went on to take out more of the Top teams in the NCAA's than any other Great Lakes Regionally Ranked team!!

Hopefully they can do it again this weekend and make more noise in the Big Dance!

gobash83

CrusaderNation, you are right, I did miss Capital as one that was on the outside looking in and certainly agree that it has an argument to be regionally ranked, though its strength of schedule and record against other regionally ranked opponents may be what was holding it back (just guessing as those numbers are not necessarily bad for Capital). 

It certainly looks like Capital has put itself into position to take the OAC AQ, which is always the best way to get into the NCAA tournament.  I would think that even if it doesn't earn the AQ this year, it may make it into the final, secret regional ranking based on its performance in the OAC tournament.  It will be interesting to see how it turns out.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

gobash83

Quote from: woacfan on November 05, 2014, 09:49:31 PM
I can speak to the OAC Gobash.  I expect Otterbein to stay in the rankings and then it will be the winner of the Capital -Ohio Northern matchup to fill the 8 spot.  JCU is out of the mix with their loss to Capital.

As for the list,  I like Thomas More.  Both they and Carnegie could be strong at large candidates.  Alleghany and Dennison maybe just a smidge below them.

Woacfan, it will be interesting how Denison and Otterbein are treated in the final rankings given their losses in their respective conference tournaments.

In looking at who may be in position for an at-large bid from the Great Lakes, I suspect that Thomas More wins the PrAC AQ.  While all have challenging matches this weekend, CMU (if it beats Emory), Alleghany (if it beats Kenyon), Hanover (if it beats Franklin), and Penn St-Behrend (if it beats Pitt-Bradford) will also receive AQs. There could be slim pickings from the Great Lakes, which won't bode well for an at-large bid for the region.
"Did Wabash Win?"--Ralph "Sap" Wilson '14 (1891-1910)

CrusaderNation

For the third time in four years the Crusaders go into the OAC final and come out as four goal scorers heading the the NCAA's.  As with the past few years being on the outside of the Great Lakes rankings and then beating those teams on their way to the tournament seems to be the MO.

With all of the upsets in the conference tournaments in the Mid Atlantic (Messiah, Williams, Ithica all losing) it looks like the likelihood of more than 1 or 2 Great Lakes At -Large teams will be slim. 

That said.... time for the Crusaders to go dancing.... again!