FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

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ncc_fan

#31080
Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 05:25:27 PM
THOUGHTS ON NCC @ WC

* NCC gladly gets their #1 RB, Ryan Kent back for this game, after his being held out last week following a minor injury 2 weeks ago. WC has a very good RB in Jesse Geary, but in direct comparison he has about 100 less rushing yards in one more game played than Kent. However Geary has the skill to have a great game at any time as evidenced by last year's NCC game in which he was excellent.
I sense the factor that can tilt the running game in the Cardinal's favor can be their depth. As good as Kent is, and remember he is coming off a week of inactivity, the Cards have 3 other very good backs. Speedy/shifty O'Shayne Brown had 84 yards on only 7 carries, a 12.0 average, last week. For the season he is averaging  6.1. Powerful Zach Pattat checks in at 5.3, and versatile Matt Randolph, also a very good receiver out of the backfield, runs for a whopping 7.2 average.
Little do I know, but while Ryan Kent should be the primary back, I feel liberal employment of all these guys will cause the WC run defense fits, considering the unique primary skill set each brings to the action.

And (assuming you know it's true) you felt the need to share that important piece of information because...???    >:( >:( >:(

You don't see any Wheaton guys telling us which QB will be starting.

AndOne

If you feel I've given away any trade secrets, ncc_fan, I apologize.

The problem, however, with that perception is that it is a well publicized fact that Ryan probably could have played last week, but was held out of action to assure he would be 100% or close to it for Wheaton.

This information appeared in at least 2 newspapers, and, I believe, was even mentioned on NCC's own web site!!! Accordingly, your angst toward me is misdirected.

Additionally, the Wheaton team and fans aren't stupid. They read the same stuff that is available to us, and they know the score.

Lastly, have you considered my dissemination of the concerned material isn't really that serious of a transgression? Let the Wheaties prepare for Kent, as they would anyway. If he, for whatever reason, doesn't start, the element of surprise is ours!  :)

USee

I am not sure the news whether Kent plays or not changes anything. The Cards are going to run the ball with/without him and the Thunder LB's are going to have to tackle whomever they give it to.

ncc_fan

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 07:09:42 PM
If you feel I've given away any trade secrets, ncc_fan, I apologize.

The problem, however, with that perception is that it is a well publicized fact that Ryan probably could have played last week, but was held out of action to assure he would be 100% or close to it for Wheaton.

This information appeared in at least 2 newspapers, and, I believe, was even mentioned on NCC's own web site!!! Accordingly, your angst toward me is misdirected.

Additionally, the Wheaton team and fans aren't stupid. They read the same stuff that is available to us, and they know the score.

Lastly, have you considered my dissemination of the concerned material isn't really that serious of a transgression? Let the Wheaties prepare for Kent, as they would anyway. If he, for whatever reason, doesn't start, the element of surprise is ours!  :)

Given that information about Kent was public knowledge, I humbly withdraw my complaint.

wally_wabash

As an unbiased and interested outside observer, here's a couple of Brass Bell thoughts...

- When I saw Wheaton in August and they were rotating three QBs and struggled to move it against Wabash, my thought then was that Wheaton would fairly quickly settle on one guy and settle on one style of offense and that they'd be fine.  That they haven't done so here by late October isn't a good sign- particularly given how different their options at that position are and how different the plan of attack is depending on who is taking the snaps.  Wheaton's offense has been so-so (96th in total offense, 91st scoring offense) but that's against a schedule that has yet to feature a defense ranked higher than 114th.  The caliber of defense steps up dramatically on Saturday, and I have concerns about how well Wheaton can move the ball and score points (in the absence of turnovers, which I'll get to in a second). 

- North Central grades out a bit better offensively, but their QBs have had a bit of the turnover bug.  No good when going against a good defense like Wheaton's.  The kinds of mistakes that cost them a result against Stevens Point, if repeated on Saturday, will cost them again.  It's not even the 9-26 passing that is the problem in that game.  It's the four giveaways.  And when you're playing a team that has struggled offensively, you can bail them out by giving the ball away.  You can play defense in a way that should surrender maybe 10-14 points, but add in those 4 turnovers and that same defensive effort can easily yield 28-35 points- which costs you wins. 

Prediction: North Central's quarterback issues can be catastrophic if whoever they use has a bad game and throws it to dudes who are not on his team.  That's not a given though.  Wheaton's quarterback issues I don't think can be solved.  If somebody hasn't stood out by this time, then they probably just don't have a standout player at that position.  And on that note, I expect that North Central will use Ryan Kent extensively, not take a ton of chances in the passing game (Sorenson, who is awesome, notwithstanding), and dare the Thunder to figure out how to drive the field.  Field position should favor North Central in that situation, and they should be able to grind out a win here.  Something like 24-10 I think. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

D3gridiron

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 05:25:27 PM
THOUGHTS ON NCC @ WC

* NCC gladly gets their #1 RB, Ryan Kent back for this game, after his being held out last week following a minor injury 2 weeks ago. WC has a very good RB in Jesse Geary, but in direct comparison he has about 100 less rushing yards in one more game played than Kent. However Geary has the skill to have a great game at any time as evidenced by last year's NCC game in which he was excellent.
I sense the factor that can tilt the running game in the Cardinal's favor can be their depth. As good as Kent is, and remember he is coming off a week of inactivity, the Cards have 3 other very good backs. Speedy/shifty O'Shayne Brown had 84 yards on only 7 carries, a 12.0 average, last week. For the season he is averaging  6.1. Powerful Zach Pattat checks in at 5.3, and versatile Matt Randolph, also a very good receiver out of the backfield, runs for a whopping 7.2 average.
Little do I know, but while Ryan Kent should be the primary back, I feel liberal employment of all these guys will cause the WC run defense fits, considering the unique primary skill set each brings to the action.

* Both QBs are inexperienced. I don't know enough about Peltz to comment. NCC's Warden has misfired to a number of wide open receivers. He needs to set his feet and step into his throws. When he fails to find an open target or isn't well protected by the O line, he is an excellent escape artist, averaging almost 6 yards a carry. Which young QB will maintain his poise and deliver in the clutch?

* From what I have read about the WC D, it seems their strength is great LB play from ALL 3 backers. I would guess they will usually pack the box in an attempt to stuff the Cards ground game. If so, the Redbird receivers need to find space/seams over the LBs and in front of or between the WC DB zones, and Warden needs to control his usual initial happy feet tendency, set and find the open man, and HIT him.

* NCC does well in stopping the run. Not so well vs the pass. If WC insists on running I think they play to NCC's hand. Rather it seems the Orange need to use the pass to set up the run rather than vice versa. Getting the Red D thinking pass might well open some space and allow Geary to get to the second level.

* I see the very real possibility of a close game wherein 3 sub plots beyond the obvious running and passing totals may well be the deciding factors.

1. Turnovers. If either team can force +2 TOs, they likely win. If one can get to +3, I think you almost certainly have a winner.
2. BIG plays. Whether by pass, run, or return, if one team can break +2 big plays, it will go a long way in contributing to a W.
3. The kicking game. Which kicker can hit the pressure FG? Which punter can employ hang time and directional kicking to help keep the other bottled up in their own end?

Interesting sub-plots.  Here's what I could find out through 6 games...

TURNOVERS - STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC
Wheaton:  +3 turnovers on season, ave +0.5 turnovers per game
NCC:  + 10 turnovers on season, ave +1.7 turnovers per game

BIG PLAYS - ADVANTAGE NCC
Don't have great data here but it seems like NCC is the big play team and Wheaton has the defense to stop the big play.  Seems like advantage NCC, but really not sure about this.  Perhaps someone could help me here.

KICKING
FIELD GOALS -- STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC

Wheaton: 6-13, 46%
NCC:  9-11, 83%

KICK OFFS -- ADVANTAGE WHEATON
Wheaton:  58.6 ave, 39.1 net, 25 yd line opp ave start, TB=4
NCC:  56.3 ave, 37.7 net, 27 yd line opp ave start, TB=1

PUNTING -- ADVANTAGE WHEATON
Wheaton:  35.8 ave, I20=7
NCC: 32.2 ave, I20=7

AndOne

BIG PLAYS-

As previously reported by USee, Wheaton has 18 plays of over 20 yards so far this season. 5 have gone for TDs.
North Central has almost twice as many at 35, including 15 TDs.

Mugsy

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 09:38:49 PM
BIG PLAYS-

As previously reported by USee, Wheaton has 18 plays of over 20 yards so far this season. 5 have gone for TDs.
North Central has almost twice as many at 35, including 15 TDs.

With Wheaton's anemic offense, this is not at all surprising.
Wheaton Football: CCIW Champs: 1950, 1953-1959, 1995, 2000, 2002-2004, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2019

D3gridiron

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 09:38:49 PM
BIG PLAYS-

As previously reported by USee, Wheaton has 18 plays of over 20 yards so far this season. 5 have gone for TDs.
North Central has almost twice as many at 35, including 15 TDs.

Thanks AndOne!

BIG PLAYS -- STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC

USee

Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 09:38:49 PM
BIG PLAYS-

As previously reported by USee, Wheaton has 18 plays of over 20 yards so far this season. 5 have gone for TDs.
North Central has almost twice as many at 35, including 15 TDs.

This really isn't advantage or disadvantage as much as it is simply a product of the philosophy of each offense. NCC runs the ball and hits you down the field when you stack the box. Wheaton takes what the defense gives you and tries to get mismatches with multiple formations and schemes. Its not really a big play offense.

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 23, 2014, 08:05:12 PM
As an unbiased and interested outside observer, here's a couple of Brass Bell thoughts...

- When I saw Wheaton in August and they were rotating three QBs and struggled to move it against Wabash, my thought then was that Wheaton would fairly quickly settle on one guy and settle on one style of offense and that they'd be fine.  That they haven't done so here by late October isn't a good sign- particularly given how different their options at that position are and how different the plan of attack is depending on who is taking the snaps.  Wheaton's offense has been so-so (96th in total offense, 91st scoring offense) but that's against a schedule that has yet to feature a defense ranked higher than 114th.  The caliber of defense steps up dramatically on Saturday, and I have concerns about how well Wheaton can move the ball and score points (in the absence of turnovers, which I'll get to in a second). 

- North Central grades out a bit better offensively, but their QBs have had a bit of the turnover bug.  No good when going against a good defense like Wheaton's.  The kinds of mistakes that cost them a result against Stevens Point, if repeated on Saturday, will cost them again.  It's not even the 9-26 passing that is the problem in that game.  It's the four giveaways.  And when you're playing a team that has struggled offensively, you can bail them out by giving the ball away.  You can play defense in a way that should surrender maybe 10-14 points, but add in those 4 turnovers and that same defensive effort can easily yield 28-35 points- which costs you wins. 

Prediction: North Central's quarterback issues can be catastrophic if whoever they use has a bad game and throws it to dudes who are not on his team.  That's not a given though.  Wheaton's quarterback issues I don't think can be solved.  If somebody hasn't stood out by this time, then they probably just don't have a standout player at that position.  And on that note, I expect that North Central will use Ryan Kent extensively, not take a ton of chances in the passing game (Sorenson, who is awesome, notwithstanding), and dare the Thunder to figure out how to drive the field.  Field position should favor North Central in that situation, and they should be able to grind out a win here.  Something like 24-10 I think.

I agree with this for the most part. I don't think I agree about the QB position. I think they have a standout player in Bowers. I just think they waited too long to decide that and then he got hurt.  Peltz could be that player but he played baseball in the spring and has been slow to catch on with the offense. Remember, Peltz turned down a scholarship to North Dakota State (the FCS 2x national Champion) and he played QB at Wheaton North, sharing the position with Northwestern freshman QB Clayton Thorson. So he has plenty of talent.

I am also not a big believer in the "you played a weak schedule so you may not be as good" theory. We have seen plenty of examples of that theory being just that (Franklin, Wabash, Wartburg, etc). The Wheaton starters are upper classmen (they start 9 seniors and 9 juniors). They have played against great competition and in big games. Wheaton replaced 29 seniors. IWU replaced 32 seniors and we see how they have struggled. Wheaton is 6-0. Teams change a lot during a season, often dramatically. Wheaton is more than capable Saturday night. The competition is the best they will have faced, they haven't put a full game together. There is no doubt they have the talent to do it. Would Wheaton fans have liked to see them dominate more than they have through 6 games? Certainly. But young teams (young being defined as new starters, though upperclassmen) don't always gel early. They often gel late and sometimes as a result of a great challenge.

We will see how they respond with their season and legacy on the line Saturday.

USee

Quote from: D3gridiron on October 23, 2014, 08:27:52 PM
Quote from: AndOne on October 23, 2014, 05:25:27 PM
THOUGHTS ON NCC @ WC

* NCC gladly gets their #1 RB, Ryan Kent back for this game, after his being held out last week following a minor injury 2 weeks ago. WC has a very good RB in Jesse Geary, but in direct comparison he has about 100 less rushing yards in one more game played than Kent. However Geary has the skill to have a great game at any time as evidenced by last year's NCC game in which he was excellent.
I sense the factor that can tilt the running game in the Cardinal's favor can be their depth. As good as Kent is, and remember he is coming off a week of inactivity, the Cards have 3 other very good backs. Speedy/shifty O'Shayne Brown had 84 yards on only 7 carries, a 12.0 average, last week. For the season he is averaging  6.1. Powerful Zach Pattat checks in at 5.3, and versatile Matt Randolph, also a very good receiver out of the backfield, runs for a whopping 7.2 average.
Little do I know, but while Ryan Kent should be the primary back, I feel liberal employment of all these guys will cause the WC run defense fits, considering the unique primary skill set each brings to the action.

* Both QBs are inexperienced. I don't know enough about Peltz to comment. NCC's Warden has misfired to a number of wide open receivers. He needs to set his feet and step into his throws. When he fails to find an open target or isn't well protected by the O line, he is an excellent escape artist, averaging almost 6 yards a carry. Which young QB will maintain his poise and deliver in the clutch?

* From what I have read about the WC D, it seems their strength is great LB play from ALL 3 backers. I would guess they will usually pack the box in an attempt to stuff the Cards ground game. If so, the Redbird receivers need to find space/seams over the LBs and in front of or between the WC DB zones, and Warden needs to control his usual initial happy feet tendency, set and find the open man, and HIT him.

* NCC does well in stopping the run. Not so well vs the pass. If WC insists on running I think they play to NCC's hand. Rather it seems the Orange need to use the pass to set up the run rather than vice versa. Getting the Red D thinking pass might well open some space and allow Geary to get to the second level.

* I see the very real possibility of a close game wherein 3 sub plots beyond the obvious running and passing totals may well be the deciding factors.

1. Turnovers. If either team can force +2 TOs, they likely win. If one can get to +3, I think you almost certainly have a winner.
2. BIG plays. Whether by pass, run, or return, if one team can break +2 big plays, it will go a long way in contributing to a W.
3. The kicking game. Which kicker can hit the pressure FG? Which punter can employ hang time and directional kicking to help keep the other bottled up in their own end?

Interesting sub-plots.  Here's what I could find out through 6 games...

TURNOVERS - STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC
Wheaton:  +3 turnovers on season, ave +0.5 turnovers per game
NCC:  + 10 turnovers on season, ave +1.7 turnovers per game

BIG PLAYS - ADVANTAGE NCC
Don't have great data here but it seems like NCC is the big play team and Wheaton has the defense to stop the big play.  Seems like advantage NCC, but really not sure about this.  Perhaps someone could help me here.

KICKING
FIELD GOALS -- STRONG ADVANTAGE NCC

Wheaton: 6-13, 46%
NCC:  9-11, 83%

KICK OFFS -- ADVANTAGE WHEATON
Wheaton:  58.6 ave, 39.1 net, 25 yd line opp ave start, TB=4
NCC:  56.3 ave, 37.7 net, 27 yd line opp ave start, TB=1

PUNTING -- ADVANTAGE WHEATON
Wheaton:  35.8 ave, I20=7
NCC: 32.2 ave, I20=7

Turnovers are fairly neutral. NCC is +9  but they have turned it over 10 times and taken it away 19 times. Wheaton has turned it over 9 times. They have less takeaways but that doesn't mean its a "strong advantage" to NCC. The Cards have only 2 fumbles, which is very good and 8 INT's which is bad. The Thunder have 5 fumbles and 4 picks. Jesse Geary has put the ball on the ground in key moments and Reece Butler has about half the Thunder turnovers and he likely won't be out there. Not sure there is a real advantage either way here.

I don't see the kicking game as a huge advantage either. Zavaglia is a very good kicker and punter but Sam Cote has been a 1st team All-CCIW kicker as well. He has struggled this year in part because he has a new snapper who has liked to roll the ball back on FG attempts, and a new holder. But he is money from 50 yards and in usually. In a bit of a slump but equally talented as NCC's kicker.

I won't comment on any advantage in punting and kickoffs other than to say I hope Wheaton gets to use their kickoff advantage a lot.

D3gridiron

USee --

On the turnover issue - maybe it's just an "advantage" for NCC and not a "strong advantage" - I could see your argument here.

On the Field Goal issue - I'd have to disagree.  My comments were based on observed current measured performance.  There are 109 D3 field goal kickers in the entire nation who have had enough FG attempts this season to be ranked.  Wheaton's senior kicker is ranked #95 in the nation out of 109.  NCC's freshman kicker is ranked #16.  That's the difference between 46% success and 82% success.  We are not talking about top versus bottom of the conference.  We are talking about NCC being among the top in the nation and Wheaton being at the bottom in this category.  Digging deeper into the numbers, Wheaton has missed 3 of it's last 5 FG attempts and 6 of it's last 9 FG attempts, NCC has only missed two FG's all season (out of a total of 11 attempts).  So my comments were based on the numbers - and they seem to indicate strong advantage NCC in this particular category.

USee

I understand the numbers.  My point is there is more to the story.   Wheatons FG performance has been atrocious.  But it's not because they have a bad kicker.  They have a potential all American kicker. Cote has missed 7 FG this year.  4 of them were bad snaps that Robbie Gould could not have converted. He flat missed the other 3.   He is in a slump.   Prior to this year he is 21-29 from inside of 45 yds with a career long of 53.  That's 72%.  Your guy is 9-11 with a long of 39. That's 82%.  Not as big a discrepancy.  The Wheston coaches obviously have confidence in him as they have tried 4 FG longer than 50 yds.  He made 1.  So there is an advantage in the numbers but Sam Cote has as much ability as any kicker in D3. 

Kovo

Quote from: USee on October 24, 2014, 07:54:30 AM
I understand the numbers.  My point is there is more to the story.   Wheatons FG performance has been atrocious.  But it's not because they have a bad kicker.  They have a potential all American kicker. Cote has missed 7 FG this year.  4 of them were bad snaps that Robbie Gould could not have converted. He flat missed the other 3.   He is in a slump.   Prior to this year he is 21-29 from inside of 45 yds with a career long of 53.  That's 72%.  Your guy is 9-11 with a long of 39. That's 82%.  Not as big a discrepancy.  The Wheston coaches obviously have confidence in him as they have tried 4 FG longer than 50 yds.  He made 1.  So there is an advantage in the numbers but Sam Cote has as much ability as any kicker in D3.

I didn't see where anyone suggested Wheaton had a "bad kicker."  I think that when you look at the advantage in a "kicking game" you are considering the success rate which is a result of all of the components ----the protection, long snapper, holder and kicker.  Your point is well taken that it isn't the kicker's fault, but the result is the same.