Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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jamtod

Nice work Wally. An interesting read.

What are the major results that will happen with the teams in question for Pool C between now and the final selection?
St John's faces Concordia-Moorhead. If they win that, it should give them another RRO (actually, either team gets a boost). I'd be very surprised to not see the #2 MIAC team make it, but I'm also a MIAC homer.
IWU still has Millikin on the schedule.
Case Western still has Carnegie Mellon (and a matchup against Westminster that could be tough).
Platteville still has Lacrosse and Whitewater.
Frostburg still has Salisbury.

Am I missing anything from the top options?

And then my next question is self-serving. Will DelVal or Brockport (or Wartburg I guess?) take the 4th #1 seed with home field until the semis or will my Tommies somehow end up with it despite the early loss and the reality that Top 25 criteria is different from NCAA selection criteria? Maybe if we get that quarterfinal game at home, we can keep the turnovers below 8 this year.

Pat Coleman

I think a UW-Platteville that wins out would be more likely to get a top seed than St. Thomas -- UW-P at 9-1 with a win vs. UW-Stout, where UST lost to UW-Stout.

Linfield similarly would have a better SOS (and a better loss).

These were the things that went through my mind when I created the reader poll that's on the front page, offering Brockport, Del Val, Linfield, St. Thomas and UW-Platteville as candidates for that fourth spot. UST's SOS is at .506 and its final three opponents are all 4-3 or 3-4 currently, so it's not likely to move a lot.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

jamtod

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 25, 2017, 11:59:08 PM
I think a UW-Platteville that wins out would be more likely to get a top seed than St. Thomas -- UW-P at 9-1 with a win vs. UW-Stout, where UST lost to UW-Stout.

Linfield similarly would have a better SOS (and a better loss).

These were the things that went through my mind when I created the reader poll that's on the front page, offering Brockport, Del Val, Linfield, St. Thomas and UW-Platteville as candidates for that fourth spot. UST's SOS is at .506 and its final three opponents are all 4-3 or 3-4 currently, so it's not likely to move a lot.

Quit ruining my dreams of a 3rd round home game (if we make it to that). I'm more likely to go to a meaningful Linfield playoff game (visiting family in Oregon for Thanksgiving) than a meaningful St Thomas playoff game this year.

wally_wabash

Right now, I think the choice would be Delaware Valley.  The Wesley pelt is quite nice. 

Pat is all over the Platteville thing, though.  If they get to 9-1, with that SOS they are a very attractive option. 

This is going to be a lot easier to sift through after next Wednesday's rankings and we aren't guessing about who will or won't be ranked. 

Quote from: jamtoTommie on October 25, 2017, 11:34:56 PM
Maybe if we get that quarterfinal game at home, we can keep the turnovers below 8 this year.

This is a good game plan. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Pat Coleman

Quote from: jamtoTommie on October 26, 2017, 12:02:03 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 25, 2017, 11:59:08 PM
I think a UW-Platteville that wins out would be more likely to get a top seed than St. Thomas -- UW-P at 9-1 with a win vs. UW-Stout, where UST lost to UW-Stout.

Linfield similarly would have a better SOS (and a better loss).

These were the things that went through my mind when I created the reader poll that's on the front page, offering Brockport, Del Val, Linfield, St. Thomas and UW-Platteville as candidates for that fourth spot. UST's SOS is at .506 and its final three opponents are all 4-3 or 3-4 currently, so it's not likely to move a lot.

Quit ruining my dreams of a 3rd round home game (if we make it to that). I'm more likely to go to a meaningful Linfield playoff game (visiting family in Oregon for Thanksgiving) than a meaningful St Thomas playoff game this year.

Well, nothing says the top seed has to advance to the quarterfinals. This part of the bracket is pretty tough, usually.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

wally_wabash

A lot of stuff is going to change between now and Selection Sunday, but I do think this first pass through the at-large process highlights a couple of things. 
- I think it's easier to see where the in/out line is and how it's a bit different than maybe we thought.  St. John's: not in.  Teams like George Fox, Wheaton, any OAC runner up, a third WIAC team...not even on the table.  You could easily have placed St. John's in and left CWRU out.  An undefeated team out- you get the idea.  The amount of runway that at-large teams have to land here is very, very small. 
- The presence of undefeated teams with no RRO results and not good strengths of schedule create issues for more traditional Pool C conference runners up.  I'm having a tough time figuring out how to handle them...it'll be interesting to see how the committee handles these scenarios if Springfield and CWRU do run the table. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

MonroviaCat

Fascinating stuff.  I love this time of year (enough information to project but still time for everything to get flipped on it's head!).  Thanks Wally (and others) for the projections and explanations. 
Go Cats!

Exiled_Noble99

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 26, 2017, 10:22:56 AM
A lot of stuff is going to change between now and Selection Sunday, but I do think this first pass through the at-large process highlights a couple of things. 
- I think it's easier to see where the in/out line is and how it's a bit different than maybe we thought.  St. John's: not in.  Teams like George Fox, Wheaton, any OAC runner up, a third WIAC team...not even on the table.  You could easily have placed St. John's in and left CWRU out.  An undefeated team out- you get the idea.  The amount of runway that at-large teams have to land here is very, very small. 
- The presence of undefeated teams with no RRO results and not good strengths of schedule create issues for more traditional Pool C conference runners up.  I'm having a tough time figuring out how to handle them...it'll be interesting to see how the committee handles these scenarios if Springfield and CWRU do run the table.

Wally is there anyway Wooster gets a C bid if they win out? Suppose Wittenberg is undefeated that last game and Wooster beats them? Will that be enough for the committee to get them in, or will other teams have to drop off for that to be possible?

wally_wabash

Quote from: Exiled_Noble99 on October 26, 2017, 01:29:54 PM
Wally is there anyway Wooster gets a C bid if they win out? Suppose Wittenberg is undefeated that last game and Wooster beats them? Will that be enough for the committee to get them in, or will other teams have to drop off for that to be possible?

Wooster winning out nets Wooster wins over Denison and Wittenberg.  They've still got h2h losses against Wabash and DePauw that are really troublesome.  Without diving into the quagmire that would be this tiebreak scenario, Wooster's best chance to make the tournament would be:
- Wabash beats Wittenberg on Saturday
- DePauw beats Wabash
- Allegheny (or Kenyon) beats DePauw

That gets a mess of teams at 7-2 in the league and a tiebreak that Wooster might win- I don't know.  Wooster's long win streak in this scenario might be the thing that puts them over. 

SCRATCH THAT.  Shame on me. 

Better hypothetical:
- Wabash beats Wittenberg
- Allegheny beats Wabash
- Wabash beats DePauw

Same mess of teams at 7-2, Wabash wins the Monon Bell.  This is MUCH better.  But all of that happening is probably more likely than Wooster getting an at-large bid if expected results hold.  Their losses are h2h with teams that are probably going to stay ahead of them in the rankings, even if Wooster beats Witt in Week 11. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Exiled_Noble99

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 26, 2017, 01:42:27 PM
Quote from: Exiled_Noble99 on October 26, 2017, 01:29:54 PM
Wally is there anyway Wooster gets a C bid if they win out? Suppose Wittenberg is undefeated that last game and Wooster beats them? Will that be enough for the committee to get them in, or will other teams have to drop off for that to be possible?

Wooster winning out nets Wooster wins over Denison and Wittenberg.  They've still got h2h losses against Wabash and DePauw that are really troublesome.  Without diving into the quagmire that would be this tiebreak scenario, Wooster's best chance to make the tournament would be:
- Wabash beats Wittenberg on Saturday
- DePauw beats Wabash
- Allegheny (or Kenyon) beats DePauw

That gets a mess of teams at 7-2 in the league and a tiebreak that Wooster might win- I don't know.  Wooster's long win streak in this scenario might be the thing that puts them over. 

SCRATCH THAT.  Shame on me. 

Better hypothetical:
- Wabash beats Wittenberg
- Allegheny beats Wabash
- Wabash beats DePauw

Same mess of teams at 7-2, Wabash wins the Monon Bell.  This is MUCH better.  But all of that happening is probably more likely than Wooster getting an at-large bid if expected results hold.  Their losses are h2h with teams that are probably going to stay ahead of them in the rankings, even if Wooster beats Witt in Week 11.

Would the committee take into the circumstances that may have caused that slump? Obviously a team tragedy may reduce a teams ability to play at its best level. I appreciate the opinion Wally, thank you.

wally_wabash

I think it would be impossible for the selection committee to justify overriding game results, even in the unfortunate circumstance that Wooster endured this season.  I think the results have to stand on their own, and two losses are going to be a tough thing for any team trying to get an at-large bid.  I do think Pool A is the more likely route for Wooster than Pool C.  The results that I outlined needing to happen are not outrageous.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Exiled_Noble99

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 26, 2017, 02:03:26 PM
I think it would be impossible for the selection committee to justify overriding game results, even in the unfortunate circumstance that Wooster endured this season.  I think the results have to stand on their own, and two losses are going to be a tough thing for any team trying to get an at-large bid.  I do think Pool A is the more likely route for Wooster than Pool C.  The results that I outlined needing to happen are not outrageous.
Thanks wally, this gives me a clear picture of what needs to happen.

Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat


Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

Assuming that everyone wins out I'd bet that a 10-0 Delaware Valley gets the 4th #1 similar to Alfred in 2016 - undefeated team from the East being a Top seed in the East.  Alfred gave MUC a good run for the first 3 quarters which is encouraging... though giving up 70 points in the game is worrisome for a #1 seed.


tf37

Wally, great work.

Why is Milliken no longer discussed after round 2?  It would seem to me based on the criteria you provided they had a better profile then Frostburg St. selected in round 4.

Or did other factors like third team from CCIW come into play?

And is SOS really that important of a criteria historically?  Maybe I misread your post, but it seems to be the trump card even over RRO results.