Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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RtSLl3100

With DVC and Brockport playing so well, if the both finish 10-0 thoughts they get the #1 for the east,, leave mount in the north, uwo in the west and UMHB in the south?

smedindy

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2017, 12:36:16 AM
Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2017, 12:03:17 AM
I think CWRU is breathing easier, as is the MIAC runner-up.
MIAC #2 definitely. Should put them at the front of the line in the West.
I don't think Case is breathing too easy... not with their two hardest games of the season Westminster and Carnegie Mellon still to play. If I had to guess who will have their bubble popped the next two weeks I think they'd be at the top of my list.

The Platteville loss is huge for them, though. If they do go unbeaten, I don't see anything in their way of the playoffs. IF, of course.

wally_wabash

Quote from: RtSLl3100 on October 29, 2017, 08:34:09 AM
With DVC and Brockport playing so well, if the both finish 10-0 thoughts they get the #1 for the east,, leave mount in the north, uwo in the west and UMHB in the south?

While they don't award top seeds specifically by geographic region, DVC and Brockport are definitely in play for one of the four top seeds. 
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FCGrizzliesGrad

Something for the researchers out there... has a team ever been a "top seed" without being undefeated?
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wally_wabash

#124
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2017, 10:20:15 PM
Something for the researchers out there... has a team ever been a "top seed" without being undefeated?

Oshkosh was a top seed in 2015 with a regular season loss, but that was out of division.  I'll keep hunting for a top seed with an in-division loss. 

Same for Wesley in 2014 (loss to Charlotte).

UWW was a top seed in 2007 with a loss to St. Cloud State.

Alright, this gets trickier before 2007 as brackets with records are not popping up immediately.  To be continued. 

FWIW, I don't think there will be a top seed with a loss this year.  Platteville was the one team that I think had a reasonable shot. 

"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Good analysis on Pool C. +1!

Kickoff commented about how strong the middle of the ASC had become.

ETBU, Southwestern, Texas Lutheran and Sul Ross State (which beat D-2 UT Permian Basin) have knocked off one another.

I believe that each of those teams are worthy of Top 10 in the South Region Fan Poll, and head to head, would beat the #8, #9 and #10 in this week's  South Region Rankings.

Unfortunately, the lack of dominance of a third place team in the conference has denied Hardin-Simmons another result against a Regionally Ranked Opponent (RRO).

art76

Wally,

Thanx again for taking on this thread year in and year out - it is very much appreciated!

There is still two weeks of drama left in this season, so anything done now will likely be tossed as we draw closer to what the selection committee comes up with.

I'd like to get input from fellow D3 fans on who should be the fourth #1 seed in their quadrant, or the fourth seed in the over-all tourney (even though the NCAA doesn't seed the teams - officially). After 9 weeks of playing there are only 11 undefeated teams still looking to make the field. I've copied and pasted their SOS scores below:

2 UW-Oshkosh                    6-0    1.000    .6829 (3)     .5916    0.652
9 Wartburg                            8-0    1.000    .6207 (11)    .5543    0.599
31 Mount Union                    8-0    1.000    .5714 (39)    .5430    0.562
41 Mary Hardin-Baylor            8-0    1.000    .5686 (47)    .5266    0.555
50 Wittenberg                    8-0    1.000    .5536 (58)    .5310    0.546
58 Delaware Valley                    8-0    1.000    .5536 (59)    .5101    0.539
71 Brockport                            8-0    1.000    .5179 (104)    .5596    0.532
83 Springfield                            8-0    1.000    .5370 (81)    .5036    0.526
114 Berry                            9-0    1.000    .5085 (119)    .5121    0.510
197 Trine                             8-0    1.000    .4259 (207)    .5174    0.456
235 Case Western Reserve    8-0    1.000    .2857 (236)    .5220    0.364

So, why isn't Wartburg getting more love out there in D3 land? Why not make Wartburg the #1 seed in the West, Oshkosh in the North, Mount Union in the East and UMHB in the South? At least we can all look at the "objective criteria" and understand why the committee makes this kind of call. Thoughts welcomed.
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wally_wabash

I've been saying that Wartburg is a sneaky candidate for the fourth top seed. Wartburg's issue may wind up being RROs.  Maybe Monmouth will be ranked- I'm not sure. But that's the only RRO result that Wartburg will have. Their current SOS is also a high water mark. That's going to come down over the next two weeks. I think the undefeated teams in the East are still more likely, but Wartburg certainly has a case.  We'll see on Wednesday if the West RAC thinks highly enough of the Knights to make them #2 in the rankings.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2017, 10:26:54 AM
I've been saying that Wartburg is a sneaky candidate for the fourth top seed. Wartburg's issue may wind up being RROs.  Maybe Monmouth will be ranked- I'm not sure. But that's the only RRO result that Wartburg will have. Their current SOS is also a high water mark. That's going to come down over the next two weeks. I think the undefeated teams in the East are still more likely, but Wartburg certainly has a case.  We'll see on Wednesday if the West RAC thinks highly enough of the Knights to make them #2 in the rankings.

Wally,

Thoughts on Trine and the North RAC rankings? I am of the opinion they will be #3 behind MUC and Witt and ahead of whatever CCIW logjam shows up. Also wondering how the RAC treats Depauw. The fun has started but heats up this week!

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on October 30, 2017, 10:33:02 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2017, 10:26:54 AM
I've been saying that Wartburg is a sneaky candidate for the fourth top seed. Wartburg's issue may wind up being RROs.  Maybe Monmouth will be ranked- I'm not sure. But that's the only RRO result that Wartburg will have. Their current SOS is also a high water mark. That's going to come down over the next two weeks. I think the undefeated teams in the East are still more likely, but Wartburg certainly has a case.  We'll see on Wednesday if the West RAC thinks highly enough of the Knights to make them #2 in the rankings.

Wally,

Thoughts on Trine and the North RAC rankings? I am of the opinion they will be #3 behind MUC and Witt and ahead of whatever CCIW logjam shows up. Also wondering how the RAC treats Depauw. The fun has started but heats up this week!

Trine's SOS is poor and they have zero RRO results. I think they'll slot in behind NCC/IWU at #5 in the region.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

miac952

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2017, 09:11:12 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2017, 10:20:15 PM
Something for the researchers out there... has a team ever been a "top seed" without being undefeated?

Oshkosh was a top seed in 2015 with a regular season loss, but that was out of division.  I'll keep hunting for a top seed with an in-division loss. 

Same for Wesley in 2014 (loss to Charlotte).

UWW was a top seed in 2007 with a loss to St. Cloud State.

Alright, this gets trickier before 2007 as brackets with records are not popping up immediately.  To be continued. 

FWIW, I don't think there will be a top seed with a loss this year.  Platteville was the one team that I think had a reasonable shot.

That UST loss to Stout could haunt them for a 1 seed. They are clicking on all cylinders right now. Will be interesting to see how the regional rankings flesh out and where we sit in 2 weeks. From my quick glance the Pool C candidates this year appear stronger than prior years and could create a lot more mayhem in the brackets. We had a taste of that last year.

D3MAFAN

#131
Quote from: miac952 on October 30, 2017, 10:45:39 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2017, 09:11:12 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2017, 10:20:15 PM
Something for the researchers out there... has a team ever been a "top seed" without being undefeated?

Oshkosh was a top seed in 2015 with a regular season loss, but that was out of division.  I'll keep hunting for a top seed with an in-division loss. 

Same for Wesley in 2014 (loss to Charlotte).

UWW was a top seed in 2007 with a loss to St. Cloud State.

Alright, this gets trickier before 2007 as brackets with records are not popping up immediately.  To be continued. 

FWIW, I don't think there will be a top seed with a loss this year.  Platteville was the one team that I think had a reasonable shot.

That UST loss to Stout could haunt them for a 1 seed. They are clicking on all cylinders right now. Will be interesting to see how the regional rankings flesh out and where we sit in 2 weeks. From my quick glance the Pool C candidates this year appear stronger than prior years and could create a lot more mayhem in the brackets. We had a taste of that last year.

They'll still have two first round games as a clear #2 seed, most likely in the weakest #1 seed bracket. Some year's ago (2011), UST got that 3rd round home game.

jamtod

Quote from: D3MAFAN on October 30, 2017, 11:03:31 AM
Quote from: miac952 on October 30, 2017, 10:45:39 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2017, 09:11:12 AM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2017, 10:20:15 PM
Something for the researchers out there... has a team ever been a "top seed" without being undefeated?

Oshkosh was a top seed in 2015 with a regular season loss, but that was out of division.  I'll keep hunting for a top seed with an in-division loss. 

Same for Wesley in 2014 (loss to Charlotte).

UWW was a top seed in 2007 with a loss to St. Cloud State.

Alright, this gets trickier before 2007 as brackets with records are not popping up immediately.  To be continued. 

FWIW, I don't think there will be a top seed with a loss this year.  Platteville was the one team that I think had a reasonable shot.

That UST loss to Stout could haunt them for a 1 seed. They are clicking on all cylinders right now. Will be interesting to see how the regional rankings flesh out and where we sit in 2 weeks. From my quick glance the Pool C candidates this year appear stronger than prior years and could create a lot more mayhem in the brackets. We had a taste of that last year.

They'll still have to first round games as a clear #2 seed, most likely in the weakest #1 seed bracket. Some year's ago (2011), UST got that 3rd round home game.

If we assume that the weakest #1 seed is the team out east, I'd happily take that matchup and feel ok about going to DelVal or Brockport to get to the semis. Would they really send us out east though? There would either be a midwest pod in the east region OR the NCAA would be paying to send a few east teams our way after round 1. I guess I need to check the historical brackets to see how this played out. I know St John Fisher came our way a few years back.

I think I'd feel the same way with Wartburg as the #1 seed. I have my doubts that the committee is really going to care much about the top #2 seed and matching them up with the worst #1 seed, rather than going with the geographical matchups that make the most sense. Have they really given weight to that in the past?

wally_wabash

Quote from: jamtoTommie on October 30, 2017, 11:13:22 AM
If we assume that the weakest #1 seed is the team out east, I'd happily take that matchup and feel ok about going to DelVal or Brockport to get to the semis. Would they really send us out east though? There would either be a midwest pod in the east region OR the NCAA would be paying to send a few east teams our way after round 1. I guess I need to check the historical brackets to see how this played out. I know St John Fisher came our way a few years back.

I think I'd feel the same way with Wartburg as the #1 seed. I have my doubts that the committee is really going to care much about the top #2 seed and matching them up with the worst #1 seed, rather than going with the geographical matchups that make the most sense. Have they really given weight to that in the past?

It seems unlikely to me that UST would be out East for a quarterfinal game. 

What's been happening lately is that the committee is building four team pods around the top 8 seeds.  Usually, you can pair off those pods in a way that will probably avoid a quarterfinal flight in 3/4 of the quadrants.  Historically, that fourth region will require somebody to go to Texas or the northwest and a flight is inevitable.  I haven't done any mock bracketing yet, but a general feeling of which teams are going to wind up as those top 8 seeds leads me to think there are better (read: more cost effective) partners for a UST pod than either DVC or Brockport. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

miac952

It could be dumb luck, but it seems its been a right of passage for the UST playoff runs to get an East or North team for the 2nd or 3rd round over the years. Wabash, Elmhurst, Hobart, and St John Fischer come to mind. I know Elmhust met the driving requirement, but I think the other 3 were flights. Interesting how it ended up that way.