MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

Started by Board Mod, February 28, 2005, 11:18:51 AM

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Pat Coleman

Quote from: AndOne on February 08, 2016, 02:34:15 PM
iiwwuu has resigned from the D3Hoops boards.  ;D
Que lastima? LOL!

No, I took action. I warned him about his ax-grinding after his last post and since his next post was right back onto the grindstone, I backed up my warning. Would have done it sooner but I actually did not read CCIW Chat for a few days -- sorry about that.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

AndOne

Well, I'm sure rejoicing is still in order in Bloomington.  ;)

AndOne

New poll is out.

Augie back up to numerio uno.
Elmhurst stays at #9.
North Central loses to #1 Augie by 8 points., beats IL Wesleyan by 20, and drops from #13 to #18.
Aren't you supposed to lose to #1? Doesn't seem like losing to the #1 team in the country by 8 points should cost you 5 places in the rankings.  >:(

Pat Coleman

I figured that might come up when I was assembling the poll page. My best guess on it is that perhaps voters felt six losses was just too much to deal with, regardless.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

AndOne

Quote from: Pat Coleman on February 08, 2016, 07:12:54 PM
I figured that might come up when I was assembling the poll page. My best guess on it is that perhaps voters felt six losses was just too much to deal with, regardless.

Quote from: AndOne on February 08, 2016, 02:02:53 PM
Quote from: iwumichigander on February 08, 2016, 12:40:08 PM
Quote from: mwunder on February 08, 2016, 10:01:08 AM
Quote from: AndOne on February 08, 2016, 12:51:30 AM
Don't know when regional rankings will come out. However, in talking with a well placed source, right now, Benedictine is ranked first in the region, with Augustana 2nd, and North Central 3rd.
Of course things can change quickly. We shall see.

As they should be...they are still undefeated.  NC at 3rd with 5 loses would be a bigger surprise in my eyes.
likely NC SOS combined with W% will keep them up in the early rankings. Their SOS very high, one of the better not only in the region but all of D3.  First rankings usually do not go all that deep behind first criteria as the components will change, the regional committees get used to the process (particularly any newbies on the committee for the first time) and NCAA will start to purify and shake out the data between the first, second and last public rankings.  The data needs to be checked and fixed before, for example, a deeper dive taken vRRO.
In short, the first blush is usually does not go too deep into the criteria. Initially emphasis on the process of the rankings.

North Central actually has 6 losses, not 5. However, all but one of the losses are to teams ranked in the top 25. NCC has lost to (current D3Hoops rankings):

2 losses to current #2 Augustana (21-1). The first by 27, and the second by 8.
Current #3 Benedictine (22-0) by 2.
Current #12 Alma (16-5) by 1.
Current #21 Chicago (14-6) by 13.
Current #30 Aurora (17-4) by 3.

North Central does not have one of the toughest D3 schedules nationally. They have the toughest D3 schedule (check the Massey ratings) of any school in the entire nation. The teams they have lost to are a combined 90-16!


Yes sir, but shouldn't the voters be considering that NCC has the nation's toughest SOS, and all but one of those losses was to a top 25 team, including 2 being to the now #1 team in the country? Also that 4 of the 6 losses are by a combined 14 points, or 3.5 points a game, and that the teams the Cardinals have lost to have a combined record of 90-16?  :-\
The defense rests.  :)

iwu70

AO, let it go.  You just need to worry about whether your boys get into the tournament at all.  Rankings mean nothing.  They have to get into the dance to dance.  Better win the AQ if you want no drama.

Thanks, Pat, for the action -- I always thought he was a troll.

IWU70

iwumichigander

Quote from: iwu70 on February 08, 2016, 08:52:38 PM
AO, let it go.  You just need to worry about whether your boys get into the tournament at all.  Rankings mean nothing.  They have to get into the dance to dance.  Better win the AQ if you want no drama.

Thanks, Pat, for the action -- I always thought he was a troll.

IWU70
Agree with both points! Thanks Pat!

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: iwumichigander on February 08, 2016, 09:15:02 PM
Quote from: iwu70 on February 08, 2016, 08:52:38 PM
AO, let it go.  You just need to worry about whether your boys get into the tournament at all.  Rankings mean nothing.  They have to get into the dance to dance.  Better win the AQ if you want no drama.

Thanks, Pat, for the action -- I always thought he was a troll.

IWU70
Agree with both points! Thanks Pat!

I also agree, except I don't think he was so much a troll as something even sadder - a dad trying to vicariously relive his youth thru his son.

AndOne

Quote from: iwu70 on February 08, 2016, 08:52:38 PM
AO, let it go.  You just need to worry about whether your boys get into the tournament at all.  Rankings mean nothing.  They have to get into the dance to dance.  Better win the AQ if you want no drama.

IWU70

When I said "the defense rests" I meant that was the end of it. I said what I had to say.  :)
You are right. The Cards just need to keep winning, and things will take care of themselves. They have 3 tough games remaining. For some reason they are all on road, but the opportunity is there.

Sounds like all are happy with Pat's action.  ;D

iwu70

We all live our lives through out kids to some degree.  Let's let him go -- I'm sure a tough situation for him, his son, and Coach Rose too. 

I hope NCC makes the dance, but at this point I doubt they will -- even winning out in regular season games.  They gotta go get the AQ through the CCIW tournament process.  Not easy on Augie's home floor. To me, that's the only way the CCIW gets three teams in this year.   I think AC and EC get in and NCC is left sitting, no dancing.  Sorry AO, we all know they deserve to be in, surely one of the top 64 teams in the country, but not likely this year.  We're all familiar with the D3 philosophy and tournament selection process.  Life is not fair and neither is this selection process, at least not entirely fair.  It is what it is.

Not a good year for my Titans, but I have faith things will be better next year, faith in Coach Rose and his staff, and faith that the returning players and some new recruits will bring the IWU program back into top-flight competition in coming seasons.  The IWU faithful will stay faithful. 

Great SB50 -- enjoying seeing the Broncs win -- I always cheer for defense and for the old guys!  Both won in San Fran.  And for what it's worth, I thought Beyonce was great!  Lady GAGA too, with the national anthem, for that matter.  Overall, a pretty good Super Bowl for the 50th.

IWU'70


sac

An 8 loss North Central still makes the tournament.  book it.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: sac on February 09, 2016, 12:38:39 AM
An 8 loss North Central still makes the tournament.  book it.

If this was D1, Augie, Elmhurst, NCC, NPU, and IWU would probably ALL make it!  But it ain't.  If NCC ends with 8 losses, they're gonna have to hope that this is a season where SoS is weighted heavily (the selection committee seems to vary year-to-year on the relative importance of winning%, SoS, and the other factors).

sac

#42012
Your region does the best job of putting "borderline" teams on the table in the best position better than any other region.  NCC would be under discussion for a long time with a strong resume.

Right now KS has them in Pool C position 3
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

They have a monster SOS and will have somewhere around 11 or 12 RRO games, keeping in mind other 'C' candidates will lose between now and 3 weeks from now as well, NCC will be still ranked very high relative to the other 'C' candidates from the Central.

With North Park and Elmhurst on the road plus one or two good CCIW tournament opponent that  SOS is likely to go over .600

GoPerry

Quote from: sac on February 09, 2016, 01:15:13 AM
Your region does the best job of putting "borderline" teams on the table in the best position better than any other region.  NCC would be under discussion for a long time with a strong resume.

Right now KS has them in Pool C position 3
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

They have a monster SOS and will have somewhere around 11 or 12 RRO games, keeping in mind other 'C' candidates will lose between now and 3 weeks from now as well, NCC will be still ranked very high relative to the other 'C' candidates from the Central.

With North Park and Elmhurst on the road plus one or two good CCIW tournament opponent that  SOS is likely to go over .600

An 8 loss NCC team means either .68 or .692 Win %.  Using the detroitjockcity data(and a lot can still change), their projected record vs RR would be 2-7 if they lose @ EC Saturday.  Wins over Mt Union, Elmhurst- Losses to Chicago, Aurora, Alma, BenU, Augie 2x, Elmhurst.  In that scenario it is still shaky in my opinion.  Will really depend on that final RR. On a quick glance, it looks like if Augie, BenU, and St Norbert get the AQ, then the Cards could get to the top of board pretty early even if they finish behind Elmhurst in the final ranking.

Rafi

Quote from: GoPerry on February 09, 2016, 09:18:35 AM
Quote from: sac on February 09, 2016, 01:15:13 AM
Your region does the best job of putting "borderline" teams on the table in the best position better than any other region.  NCC would be under discussion for a long time with a strong resume.

Right now KS has them in Pool C position 3
http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

They have a monster SOS and will have somewhere around 11 or 12 RRO games, keeping in mind other 'C' candidates will lose between now and 3 weeks from now as well, NCC will be still ranked very high relative to the other 'C' candidates from the Central.

With North Park and Elmhurst on the road plus one or two good CCIW tournament opponent that  SOS is likely to go over .600

An 8 loss NCC team means either .68 or .692 Win %.  Using the detroitjockcity data(and a lot can still change), their projected record vs RR would be 2-7 if they lose @ EC Saturday.  Wins over Mt Union, Elmhurst- Losses to Chicago, Aurora, Alma, BenU, Augie 2x, Elmhurst.  In that scenario it is still shaky in my opinion.  Will really depend on that final RR. On a quick glance, it looks like if Augie, BenU, and St Norbert get the AQ, then the Cards could get to the top of board pretty early even if they finish behind Elmhurst in the final ranking.

I don't think the 8th loss can happen in the first CCIW tournament game.  If that happens, the win % will be tough to overcome.  If the 8th loss comes in the CCIW championship (and this would mean another win vs. RRO in Elmhurst), the chances are certainly better.  If NCC and Elmhurst split the next two games, should NCC be ranked higher in the rankings?

Either way, as was pointed out, NCC will be below a .700 win % with an 8th loss.  Have there been many/any pool C teams below .700?