Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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jknezek

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2012, 11:46:21 AM
All of that said, if Huntingdon picks up a second loss, and F&M pick up a second loss, and Millsaps picks up a second loss, then 1-loss CMU may very well be sitting at the top of the South region tableau on 11/11.  The Tartans probably have the most favorable schedule remaining to get to the finish line at 9-1 of the South region at-large contenders.

I don't think F&M will run the table. They have both Gettysburg and Johns Hopkins to play, and Gettysburg is going to be on the road. I think F&M will be 1 loss going into those last two games, but I can see them losing both, or at least to JHU. Would make me happy if they keep winning though, might give W&L an RRO with a result. Granted it was a losing result, but it was real close on the road in week 1. If W&L wins out, that could help them with the seedings.

IHuntingdon has a tough go with Wesley, but after that they shouldn't be troubled. A lot rides on that game for both Wesley and Huntingdon.

CMU does look like they are in good shape if they get past OWU. B-SC really dropped the ball last weekend and that hurts a lot of teams...

wally_wabash

Quote from: d-train on October 16, 2012, 11:55:02 AM
Keep an eye this week on Willamette @ PLU.  The Lutes are a two-loss team (to Linfield and CLU) but could knock off the Bearcats this weekend.  If Willamette survives, I think the NWC will get two bids.

Willamette looks great if they don't stumble against PLU.  PLU, with a win positions themselves well amongst two-loss teams, but the mantra continues to be don't lose twice. 

Quote from: jknezek on October 16, 2012, 11:57:35 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2012, 11:46:21 AM
All of that said, if Huntingdon picks up a second loss, and F&M pick up a second loss, and Millsaps picks up a second loss, then 1-loss CMU may very well be sitting at the top of the South region tableau on 11/11.  The Tartans probably have the most favorable schedule remaining to get to the finish line at 9-1 of the South region at-large contenders.

I don't think F&M will run the table. They have both Gettysburg and Johns Hopkins to play, and Gettysburg is going to be on the road. I think F&M will be 1 loss going into those last two games, but I can see them losing both, or at least to JHU. Would make me happy if they keep winning though, might give W&L an RRO with a result. Granted it was a losing result, but it was real close on the road in week 1. If W&L wins out, that could help them with the seedings.

IHuntingdon has a tough go with Wesley, but after that they shouldn't be troubled. A lot rides on that game for both Wesley and Huntingdon.

CMU does look like they are in good shape if they get past OWU. B-SC really dropped the ball last weekend and that hurts a lot of teams...

You're right...F&M is either going to win the CC or be out of the conversation.  But, good news for W&L, F&M could very well get regionally ranked before their JHU/Gettysburg games. 
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short

Wally,

If Wabash beats OWU Wabash will get the pool A bid.  If they lose to OWU they are a 2 L team and out of pool B most likely.  So using this logic OWU can not be the Pool A bid for the NCAC and still have Wabash getting a Pool B bid.

wally_wabash

Quote from: short on October 16, 2012, 12:29:48 PM
Wally,

If Wabash beats OWU Wabash will get the pool A bid.  If they lose to OWU they are a 2 L team and out of pool B most likely.  So using this logic OWU can not be the Pool A bid for the NCAC and still have Wabash getting a Pool B bid.

I'm not trying to predict future results here, with some very minor exceptions.  For example, it's unlikely that both Wesley and Huntingdon are going to make the field.  But as of today, they'd both get in. 

Same with OWU/Wabash.  Certainly the scenario that you paint would probably move Wabash either into Pool A with a win (have to keep an eye on Allegheny...as much as it doesn't feel like it, they're still undefeated in league play and have the h2h hammer on Wabash) or out of Pool C with a loss.  We'll address that after 10/27.  Part of what I'm doing here with this exercise is just seeing how these selections evolve over the last 5-6 weeks of the season.  If I tried to account for "if this, then that" scenarios, I'd never get to a full projection. 
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d-train

#34
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 16, 2012, 12:23:56 PM
Quote from: d-train on October 16, 2012, 11:55:02 AM
Keep an eye this week on Willamette @ PLU.  The Lutes are a two-loss team (to Linfield and CLU) but could knock off the Bearcats this weekend.  If Willamette survives, I think the NWC will get two bids.

Willamette looks great if they don't stumble against PLU.  PLU, with a win positions themselves well amongst two-loss teams, but the mantra continues to be don't lose twice. 

Yeah, I don't think PLU gets in...just too few Pool C bids out there.  (Though I'd love to be wrong on this.)  Best they can do is 7-2 with one win against an NAIA team (Menlo).  Their losses aren't too bad at all (both top 10 teams) but two is likely just one too many.  Their best wins would be Willamette, Whitworth, and Redlands (again, not bad).  But I'm getting way ahead of myself anyway.

Short version: PLU may be a spoiler this Sat. 

Ralph Turner

I just have a hard time saying the LaCollege lost "badly".

On the last play of the first half, leading the #2 team in the country, 3-0, your FG is blocked and returned for a TD. You block their PAT, trail by only 6-3 at the half, but momentum has just swung to a team that has your number.

jknezek

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 02:29:29 PM
I just have a hard time saying the LaCollege lost "badly".

On the last play of the first half, leading the #2 team in the country, 3-0, your FG is blocked and returned for a TD. You block their PAT, trail by only 6-3 at the half, but momentum has just swung to a team that has your number.

Ralph I really like your stuff and you do a lot of really good posts, but the game didn't end at halftime. A football game is 60 minutes long. Being in the game until halftime is great, but you can still get hammered and lose 30-3, even if most of it came in the second half. In fact, good teams tend to wear other teams down in the first half, making it easier for an underdog to stay close for 15 minutes then it is for 30, and it's a lot easier to stay close in the first 30 then the second 30.

Or, in another example, last night San Diego won the first half! They were killing Denver. Sadly they forgot to come out for the second half and took a bad loss, which is what really counts come playoff time. LC may have had a great first half, but they lost pretty badly in the end, and that's what really matters come playoff time.

I will say LC held UMHB to one of their lower offensive outputs of the season, something to be proud of, but they still lost by 4 possession. That's a pretty bad loss in the end.

smedindy

If Oshkosh beats Whitewater, then that's going to be a real puzzler for the committee? I can hear the howls already from a team excluded because a two-loss team with meh SOS and a bad loss is in the playoffs. CWRU was left out last year for one bad loss and an undefeated regional record.

ExTartanPlayer

smedindy, I agree, just posted something to this effect on the NCAC board in response to your post there.
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wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2012, 04:07:19 PM
If Oshkosh beats Whitewater, then that's going to be a real puzzler for the committee? I can hear the howls already from a team excluded because a two-loss team with meh SOS and a bad loss is in the playoffs. CWRU was left out last year for one bad loss and an undefeated regional record.

One difference is that Whitewater will (probably) have a win against a RR'd team...I think Platteville will make the cut in the West unless they lose again.  It just depends on whether or not this committee are strict constructionists or loose constructionists when it comes to the criteria.  Previous championship performance may be considered, but only amongst teams that are inseparable by the primary criteria and have undefeated records.  I don't believe that Whitewater has a playoff resumé without a WIAC championship.  That loss to Buffalo State KILLS them, even if it is out of region.  Looking the other way on that result would be incredibly irresponsible of the committee. 
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HScoach

^   I agree.   If UWO beats Whitewater and runs the table to garner the WIAC auto bid, then UWW's playoff chances are on thin ice IMHO.  Defending champs or not, a loss to a below than .500 team is not a good resume builder.  Regardless of out of region or not.  The Buff St loss could bite them.

And the Bethel miracle against Concordia is likely to have playoff ramifications well beyond their specific chances.  A 9-1 Bethel makes St Thomas' chances at a very high seed stronger.  The most curious thing for me after the shake up by last years' NCAA committee is how the #1 seeds get selected and slotted.  At this point the obvious #1's are, in order:

Mary Harden Baylor
Mount Union
St Thomas
Linfield

There isn't anyone in the true East that is #1 worthy, sorry Hobart, and the traditional eastern/southern pick of Wesley isn't going happen this season either with the loss to MHB.  So does the 2012 committee stick with the top 4 teams regardless of location and take 2 west teams as #1's when one of them isn't Whitewater that can easily cover the North within driving distance? 

And what does it do with an 9-1 Whitewater?  In the traditional west they'd be no higher than a #3 seed.  In the traditional north they're probably a #3 if Ill Wesleyan completes the CCIW slate undefeated (which I doubt).  Probably more likely the #2 behind MTU and just ahead of North Central based on UWW beating LAX which beat NCC in week 1.

If I had to guess at this point, my 4 teams listed above are the #1 seeds with Mount hosting the traditional eastern region and St Thomas hosting the northern teams.  A 9-1 UWW would then be the #2 seed under STU.  Wesley could be the #2 under either Mount or MHB.
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wally_wabash

Quote from: HScoach on October 16, 2012, 07:11:39 PM
There isn't anyone in the true East that is #1 worthy, sorry Hobart, and the traditional eastern/southern pick of Wesley isn't going happen this season either with the loss to MHB.  So does the 2012 committee stick with the top 4 teams regardless of location and take 2 west teams as #1's when one of them isn't Whitewater that can easily cover the North within driving distance? 

If Oshkosh can get to 10-0, they could take that place of WIAC team that can host most North teams with a bus ride.  And I don't think too many people would be offended if a 10-0 WIAC champion were to be awarded a top seed.  Heidelberg could get there by bus...Wittenberg could...OWU couldn't...Allegheny would almost certainly get fed to Mount Union if they were to win the NCAC...the rest of the North's playoff teams are well within driving distance of Oshkosh. 

It's an interesting dilemma, especially if we wind up with a lot of powerful, undefeated teams out West.  Oshkosh, St. Thomas, Linfield, maybe Coe...not everybody can host three games.  How they break that up would be fun to see if everybody holds serve. 
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Pat Coleman

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 02:29:29 PM
I just have a hard time saying the LaCollege lost "badly".

On the last play of the first half, leading the #2 team in the country, 3-0, your FG is blocked and returned for a TD. You block their PAT, trail by only 6-3 at the half, but momentum has just swung to a team that has your number.

I'm sorry -- this is a 60-minute game. In the end, you have to play all four quarters, or at least both halves.
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Ralph Turner

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 16, 2012, 08:35:25 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 02:29:29 PM
I just have a hard time saying the LaCollege lost "badly".

On the last play of the first half, leading the #2 team in the country, 3-0, your FG is blocked and returned for a TD. You block their PAT, trail by only 6-3 at the half, but momentum has just swung to a team that has your number.

I'm sorry -- this is a 60-minute game. In the end, you have to play all four quarters, or at least both halves.
La College's season  may come down to the last play FG against Wesley and the 30:01 minutes against UMHB.

jknezek

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 09:30:32 PM
La College's season  may come down to the last play FG against Wesley and the 30:01 minutes against UMHB.

Almost all Pool C teams will have similar stories. Maybe not against the same caliber opponents, and I've been on record as saying that LC is a good C candidate if they run the table, but to be a Pool C means to have had 1 game, 1 drive, 1 quarter, 1 turnover, whatever, that cost you that 1 game that you needed. In LC's case, it was 30 minutes of lambasting and 4 possessions against one of the best teams in the country, or a really close loss, at home, to another of the best teams in the country. Hard luck, but they agreed to the schedule and they have to win the games.