TOP 25

Started by short, July 11, 2008, 10:56:29 PM

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K-Mack

Quote from: mhb8904 AKA Toby Taff on October 28, 2008, 10:40:13 AMWhat it boils down to is that the game is irrelevant. 

You make some good points in your post, but this was not one of them. In regards to the top 25, common opponents tend to be relevant, especially in the absence of other, more conclusive data.
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Toby Taff

Quote from: K-Mack on October 28, 2008, 10:57:14 PM
Quote from: mhb8904 AKA Toby Taff on October 28, 2008, 10:40:13 AMWhat it boils down to is that the game is irrelevant.

You make some good points in your post, but this was not one of them. In regards to the top 25, common opponents tend to be relevant, especially in the absence of other, more conclusive data.
Sorry if I made myself unclear.  I was responding to what seemed to me to be the suggestion that willamette is the better team given the common opponent as much as the idea that the circumstances in the games specifics shouldn't be accounted for.  I think for drawing conclusions about relative strength of the two teams, the game was irrelevant.  The reality of the game was that what mattered most was coming out healthier on the other side, or at least not more injured.  UMHB has to lose 2 of the last 3 to not get the AQ, so I think consideration has to be given to the relative irrelevance of the game to UMHB.  Did they play the full game to their peak?  Try their hardest?  I'd like to think so, but with the mistakes they made I have to think their heads were elsewhere opening the door for the monkey stomping they got.  And it was a monkey stomping.
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

K-Mack

Quote from: muledaddy on October 28, 2008, 05:33:54 PMMates,

Mules hit no 2 in AFCA today. Nobody jumping over them without getting kicked, unlikeD3.

Quote from: muledaddy on October 28, 2008, 07:42:32 PMK-Mack/Pat,

Nice to see Mules getting a little respect from AFCA...no. 2 ranking...I guess the coaches see it a tad diferently than the Gurus, who inexplicably hopped 2 teams over the Mules when they were continuing to win in the rain and the wind while theteams above them were busy losing. Go figure...a poll is just a guess, I guess????????? Certainly improbable inadmissible speculation, right?

If you're trying to bait me into a board war, and it certainly looks like you are when you put my name in a post and post on the same topic more than once, be advised I grew up a long time ago.

If you want to have a grown man's discussion on the likely reasons why Muhlenberg is not ranked No. 2, I'm game.

I like Coach Donnelly and Santagato and those guys, and I think Muhlenberg's got a nice team, so I have no interest in insulting them.

But being someone who doesn't have a son on the team (although I do have an aunt and uncle that met there) or at least doesn't have the team's mascot in my board name, I personally can separate the emotion from the information we have to evaluate the teams.

Your slander is sort of off-base anyway; you don't know if Pat or I ranked Muhlenberg second or not. (I moved North Central up to No. 2, but I had them ahead of Muhlenberg to begin with, they were only coming from No. 4 for me anyway.)

The 25 voters saw enough reason to rank North Central No. 2, and I think they (we) made the right choice. I think if you took an objective look at it, you'd agree.

But my sense is you're not interested in objectivity, you're just interested in Muhlenberg. So enjoy the AFCA poll. Theirs means about as much as ours when it comes to what you should be getting worked up about instead: playoff positioning.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: mhb8904 AKA Toby Taff on October 28, 2008, 11:46:24 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 28, 2008, 10:57:14 PM
Quote from: mhb8904 AKA Toby Taff on October 28, 2008, 10:40:13 AMWhat it boils down to is that the game is irrelevant.

You make some good points in your post, but this was not one of them. In regards to the top 25, common opponents tend to be relevant, especially in the absence of other, more conclusive data.
Sorry if I made myself unclear.  I was responding to what seemed to me to be the suggestion that willamette is the better team given the common opponent as much as the idea that the circumstances in the games specifics shouldn't be accounted for.  I think for drawing conclusions about relative strength of the two teams, the game was irrelevant.  The reality of the game was that what mattered most was coming out healthier on the other side, or at least not more injured.  UMHB has to lose 2 of the last 3 to not get the AQ, so I think consideration has to be given to the relative irrelevance of the game to UMHB.  Did they play the full game to their peak?  Try their hardest?  I'd like to think so, but with the mistakes they made I have to think their heads were elsewhere opening the door for the monkey stomping they got.  And it was a monkey stomping.

I think your insight from UMHB's perspective is valuable.

Every year we have a case study or two where a strong team has key injuries, and I'm not sure all voters approach them the same way.

Actually, Pat and I don't always see it the same way, so I guess I am sure.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

ADL70

#229
Competing philosphies ?: vote where the team is now or where the team will be at the end of the season.
SPARTANS...PREPARE FOR GLORY
HA-WOO, HA-WOO, HA-WOO
Think beyond the possible.
Compete, Win, Respect, Unite

muledaddy

#230
K-Mack,

I don't think it would be timely for us  to debate Muhlenberg's strength, especially since you have  long been aware of our Coach , qb Santagato, and rb DeLuca.I
think we can defer such a discussion in favor of the more positive and possibly beneficial topic you have raised...where do the Mules fit in the playoff picture...
do we leave them home in the South or move them to the East, and why?This assumes,
solely for the sake of discussion, that they are successful in running the gauntlet in these last 3 games of the regular season, 2 of which are away games
against real quality opponents, leading to a 2nd straight undefeated regular season.10 of 11 offensive starters from last year are back, as are 6 of 11 defenders..what seed, which area, and why?

Pat Coleman

That's a discussion for a different board, then.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

redswarm81

#232
Quote from: K-Mack on October 28, 2008, 11:53:46 PM
Quote from: muledaddy on October 28, 2008, 05:33:54 PM
Mules hit no 2 in AFCA today. . . . the coaches see it a tad diferently than the Gurus, . . . blah blah blah . . . , I guess?????????

If you want to have a grown man's discussion on the likely reasons why Muhlenberg is not ranked No. 2, I'm game.

I like Coach Donnelly (RedSwarm81's former coach) and Santagato and those guys, and I think Muhlenberg's got a nice team, so I have no interest in insulting them.

So enjoy . . . what you should be getting worked up about instead: playoff positioning.

So this week, the following ranked teams lost:

No. 9 Washington & Jefferson
No. 14 Trinity (TX) (to No. 5 Millsaps)
No. 15 Wheaton
No. 16 Salisbury (to No. 10 Wesley)
No. 19 UW-Eau Claire (to No. 6 UW-Whitewater)

In my exceptionally cloudy crystal ball, I see Trinity dropping a bit, if voters notice their dismal OWP/OOWP.
I'm guessing Salisbury drops a bit on account of this being their second loss, even though it's to a higher ranked team.
Normally I'd guess UW-Eau Claire wouldn't drop out, but this is their third loss.

Nos. 1, 2, and 3 won handily.
No. 4 Muhlenberg clinched a Pool A bid with a 6 point win over Dickinson, who gave them quite a game after it looked early on as if Muhlenberg was going to run away with the game.
No. 5 Millsaps won by a margin that seems bigger than the seesawish game that K-Mack blogged.
No. 6 UW-W made something of a statement in the WIAC, although this wasn't a WIAConference game--it was just a game between two WIAC member teams.
No. 7 Cortland St. came from behind to beat New Jersey by 6, welcome to Pool A.

My predictions:


  • Otterbein will be the new No. 13 team in the nation, on the eve of its back-to-back games v. Mount Union and John Carroll.  If they lose both games, they'll probably have trouble competing for a Pool C bid, with two losses and no wins v. ranked opponents.

  • Week 9 d3football.com Top 25 Poll includes No. 4 UW-W, No. 5 Millsaps, and No. 6 Muhlenberg.

  • As unlikely as it seemed a month ago, St. John's is the odds-on favorite win the MIAC.

  • Rowan will inherit all of Concordia-Moorhead's votes from last week.

  • Hobart will inherit all of WPI's votes from last week.

  • Thomas More will never recant his testimony.

Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

roocru

Anything that you ardently desire, vividly imagine, totally believe and enthusiastically pursue will inevitably come to pass !!!

Ryan Tipps

Quote from: redswarm81 on November 02, 2008, 01:12:57 AM
No. 4 Muhlenberg clinched a Pool A bid with a 6 point win over Dickinson, who gave them quite a game after it looked early on as if Muhlenberg was going to run away with the game.

Just a small correction in an otherwise well thought out analyisis:

If Muhlenberg loses its final two games (Ursinus and Moravian), that could bump them out of Pool A -- and probably out of Pool C. Moravian is a two-loss Centennial team, and they could wind up owning the head-to-head edge over the Mules.
D3football.com Senior Editor and Around the Nation columnist. On Twitter: @NewsTipps

2.7 seconds. An average football player may need more time to score; a great one finds a way. I've seen greatness happen.

muledaddy


Ryan,
I will try to make swarm's anaysis merely premature, rather than inaccurate, by putting away Ursinus

next saturday, clinching CC and Pool A automatic qualifier.Where do the Mules get a better shot at 3 home playoff games, by staying home in the South, or being shipped to the East?

redswarm81

Quote from: Ryan Tipps on November 02, 2008, 04:42:01 PM
Quote from: redswarm81 on November 02, 2008, 01:12:57 AM
No. 4 Muhlenberg clinched a Pool A bid with a 6 point win over Dickinson, who gave them quite a game after it looked early on as if Muhlenberg was going to run away with the game.

Just a small correction in an otherwise well thought out analyisis:

If Muhlenberg loses its final two games (Ursinus and Moravian), that could bump them out of Pool A -- and probably out of Pool C. Moravian is a two-loss Centennial team, and they could wind up owning the head-to-head edge over the Mules.

That's not a prediction, is it, Ryan?  Given the laser-like accuracy of your recent Triple Take predictions, if that were your actual prediction, muledaddy might have trouble sleeping for the next couple of weeks.   :D
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

Ryan Tipps

Quote from: redswarm81 on November 02, 2008, 05:00:59 PM
Quote from: Ryan Tipps on November 02, 2008, 04:42:01 PM
Quote from: redswarm81 on November 02, 2008, 01:12:57 AM
No. 4 Muhlenberg clinched a Pool A bid with a 6 point win over Dickinson, who gave them quite a game after it looked early on as if Muhlenberg was going to run away with the game.

Just a small correction in an otherwise well thought out analyisis:

If Muhlenberg loses its final two games (Ursinus and Moravian), that could bump them out of Pool A -- and probably out of Pool C. Moravian is a two-loss Centennial team, and they could wind up owning the head-to-head edge over the Mules.

That's not a prediction, is it, Ryan?  Given the laser-like accuracy of your recent Triple Take predictions, if that were your actual prediction, muledaddy might have trouble sleeping for the next couple of weeks.   :D

So I can give muledaddy fits for the next few nights just by making this prediction? Talk about getting to have my cake and eat it too  ;D ;D

Just kidding, muledaddy. ;)

Nah, I was merely pointing out that Muhlenberg isn't quite a lock yet -- they're likely -- but not a lock. I don't see Ursinus beating the Mules, though I do see Moravian doing better than the 35-7 pasting that happened last season. Overall, I'd bank on Muhlenberg to run the table.
D3football.com Senior Editor and Around the Nation columnist. On Twitter: @NewsTipps

2.7 seconds. An average football player may need more time to score; a great one finds a way. I've seen greatness happen.

K-Mack

Quote from: muledaddy on October 29, 2008, 11:12:30 AM
K-Mack,

I don't think it would be timely for us  to debate Muhlenberg's strength, especially since you have  long been aware of our Coach , qb Santagato, and rb DeLuca.I
think we can defer such a discussion in favor of the more positive and possibly beneficial topic you have raised...where do the Mules fit in the playoff picture...
do we leave them home in the South or move them to the East, and why?This assumes,
solely for the sake of discussion, that they are successful in running the gauntlet in these last 3 games of the regular season, 2 of which are away games
against real quality opponents, leading to a 2nd straight undefeated regular season.10 of 11 offensive starters from last year are back, as are 6 of 11 defenders..what seed, which area, and why?

Very classy response.

Even though this is technically for another board, I think Muhlenberg is a "swing team" as far as which region they'll be placed in, and here's why:

if Cortland State beats Ithaca, the East won't need a 1 seed shipped in (i.e. Mount Union). But if they fall short on teams, and the South is loaded (3 Texas teams, Millsaps, Huntingdon or LaGrange, ODAC champ, USAC champ) then either Wesley or Muhlenberg could move. Maybe host a MAC team in the first round. Same deal with sending W&J to the North if they are a Pool C.

Anyway, lots of time to sort that out ... and Mules are probably a hot topic sticking with this board's theme again, based on today's poll. I haven't moved them up or down in two weeks, I think ... I hope you can understand why Millsaps would move up.

UWW put up a statement win against a pretty good team and the Mules likewise played a decent team, but the tight score must have cost them some votes. I think the top of the D3 poll is just that clogged at this point. The Mules took a hit in points this week, from 540 to 496, but that 496 is just a shade behind UWW's 499 and Millsaps' 508. So it's not a distant 6th if you look beyond the numbers.

And yeah, clinching the Pool A bid is where it's at.

I wonder if the Mules move in the AFCA poll.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: muledaddy on November 02, 2008, 04:58:59 PM
Where do the Mules get a better shot at 3 home playoff games, by staying home in the South, or being shipped to the East?

answered on the playoff speculation thread. will cc: my other answer too.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.