Author Topic: FB: Liberty League  (Read 3420450 times)

Online Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49380 on: July 13, 2017, 05:13:16 pm »
I get that - fortunately Bart was able to get Coach Yoder and his Hornets up to Geneva and opening with Brockport at the Boz is a nice change of pace instead of the annual thumping of Dickinson (well, since 2010 anyway, the series was pretty competitive up until them).

Switching gears, I've heard IC's defense being potentially "Top 25" caliber this season. Looks like only three starters (based on the final bx anyway) graduated, so that's a lot of talent coming back this season. What do you think Bombers?

Also, am I reading right that IC has 9 coming back on O (i.e., only Shafer & Vandenbos graduated)?

I don't really know what Top 25 means. I don't mean that rudely, I just don't really see enough of everyone else to have any basis for comparison. I suspect Ithaca will be strong defensively, and very good at linebacker.

It is a bit of an abstract concept to rate a defense independent of the entire team in general, and I don't think my ratings do anywhere close to a perfect job of removing bias from a team's offense or special teams in its defensive rating, but the gist of the concept is this:

If a perfectly average DIII football team's offense were given average field position on an infinite number of drives against every Division III team, the average number of points Ithaca would be expected to allow would be among the 25 fewest in the nation based on their performance the last four years and the amount of returning starters for this upcoming season.

A bit of an obtuse way of saying it, but that's the essence of a "Top 25" defense to me.

I mean, sure?

I guess it's just hard, and I'm not trying to be a jerk. The difference between IC last year (48th) and the 25th was 2.9 points. How much of that is statistical noise based on garbage time scores, opponent quality, etc? No idea.

Let me put it to you this way: Ithaca's defense could carry a solid offense to a conference title and possibly a playoff win. Think, 2014 Ithaca, but not 2013 (which carried a mediocre offense to one.)

Offline HansenRatings

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49381 on: July 13, 2017, 07:27:06 pm »
Honestly, a LOT of it is based on noise. What kinda threw me for a loop when I was building my system was that ignoring garbage time made predictions less accurate, so there's still some signal in there. The extent of the noise in general in any football analysis is precisely why I phrase things the way I do with terms like "Top 25 caliber," "probably," "would be expected to," etc. There's absolutely no way to know this stuff for sure.

As for your last point, yes, this defense should be good enough to earn them a chance at the playoffs. It's really uncommon for teams that play defense as well as them to not make the playoffs (look at everyone else clustered around them in the screen shot I posted). I'm also of the belief that, given the right game plan, a good defense can play a larger role in close games than a good offense. If they're truly switching to some sort of "pro-style" spread next season, and are able to get just 1 more explosive play per game, they could easily go from 5-5 to 8-2, and we all know 8-2 isn't a disqualifier for E8 teams in selection.
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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49382 on: July 14, 2017, 12:24:59 am »
8-2 is disqualifying for LL ones tho - at least IC would have a strong SOS in theory that was the case, but all the new AQs in the East are not good for teams in the East with more than one loss.
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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49383 on: July 14, 2017, 08:48:57 am »
8-2 is disqualifying for LL ones tho - at least IC would have a strong SOS in theory that was the case, but all the new AQs in the East are not good for teams in the East with more than one loss.

Well, I feel like a dullard. I was even posting on a LL board and forgot about the conference switch.
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Online Bombers798891

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49384 on: July 14, 2017, 08:54:18 am »
So I really hate making posts where I feel like I haven't fully explained an answer to an honest question. So, here's my full answer to ITH's Q about the Bomber D:

In 2015, I was in a comment thread where a Wesley fan referred to their OL as "average, at best". I pointed out that Wesley had (by far) the top offense in the country, yardage wise, and that simply would not be possible if their offensive line was average at best. But the poster pointed out to me that they were making that comparison based on how they looked against Mount Union and other elite teams, not D-III as a whole. Which makes sense, given that it was Wesley, and that was the level of their program. Why would you be thinking about your offensive line's quality relative to say, some middle of the pack ODAC team?

I guess that's where my mindset is with Ithaca, but on a lower scale, and for different reasons. I don't really think about the Bombers' defense nationally, because they're not national contenders. My mind is just set to: Is it good enough to win me the steak dinner I have hinging on the Bombers' winning at least six games this year? Will I be getting crab legs and a dessert by hitting the "At least 6 wins/playoffs/Cortaca win" parlay?

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49385 on: July 14, 2017, 09:10:51 am »


As for your last point, yes, this defense should be good enough to earn them a chance at the playoffs. It's really uncommon for teams that play defense as well as them to not make the playoffs

You've got a lot of stuff in your model that I can't account for, but I just want to point out that last year's Bombers allowed 19.7 PPG, which is right in between the 19.9 they allowed in 2015, and the 19.5 they allowed in 2011, and worse than the 17.7 they allowed in 2012, all years that they missed the playoffs.
 
Now, as you point out, this is where the Swanstrom variable comes into play. If he improves the offense the way his resume says he will, you're right, a defense of Ithaca's caliber is likely to make the playoffs. But I'm not sure this is the right year. It could be. But it could also be this really odd transitional year. I actually think it's going to be a lot like this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/5nresy/matt_ryan_to_kyle_shanahan_in_september_of_2015_i/


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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49386 on: July 14, 2017, 09:32:40 am »
8-2 is disqualifying for LL ones tho - at least IC would have a strong SOS in theory that was the case, but all the new AQs in the East are not good for teams in the East with more than one loss.

Well, I feel like a dullard. I was even posting on a LL board and forgot about the conference switch.
With all the cross over it's kind of like the long-wished for NYS "Super Conference". IC doesn't make it easier given the fact they play as many E8 teams as LL ones.
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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49387 on: July 14, 2017, 10:19:04 am »


As for your last point, yes, this defense should be good enough to earn them a chance at the playoffs. It's really uncommon for teams that play defense as well as them to not make the playoffs

You've got a lot of stuff in your model that I can't account for, but I just want to point out that last year's Bombers allowed 19.7 PPG, which is right in between the 19.9 they allowed in 2015, and the 19.5 they allowed in 2011, and worse than the 17.7 they allowed in 2012, all years that they missed the playoffs.
 
Now, as you point out, this is where the Swanstrom variable comes into play. If he improves the offense the way his resume says he will, you're right, a defense of Ithaca's caliber is likely to make the playoffs. But I'm not sure this is the right year. It could be. But it could also be this really odd transitional year. I actually think it's going to be a lot like this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/5nresy/matt_ryan_to_kyle_shanahan_in_september_of_2015_i/
That thread was great. Reminded me of this forum about 12-3 years ago.
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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49388 on: July 17, 2017, 03:08:21 pm »
http://www.thestylus.net/news/view.php/1023539/Athletic-Department-puts-quotGo-Greenquo

I'm posting this article from a year ago (and about an E8 team) because I'm curious what you guys think of it.

I'm strange, and I really like collecting old Ithaca football media guides and game programs. The media guides are easy enough to store online, but the game programs won't be. I don't know, it's sort of a weird thing about D-III sports stuff. In the big time pro/college sports, it feels like all the information we ever need is right at our fingertips. But old D-III stuff is already being lost to time. How many copies exist of the 1980 Ithaca football media guide—which of course, is not digitized? If some player sets a school or NCAA record in a game, the game program for that day would be a cool piece of history.

I actually have a DVD of something that IC's radio/TV stations produced after they won the 1991 Stagg Bowl. It's a season yearbook recap, like you used see with pro teams. Weekly highlights, intercut with player commentary. This aired on TV a few times, and my Dad recorded it on VHS and then transferred it to DVD. It's got PSA breaks and everything. I realized that the number of people who have this is probably vanishingly small—which I admit, is probably not much less than the number of people who care about its existence. But still. That's why I keep coming to these boards. It's fun to talk to people who have institutional knowledge

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49389 on: July 18, 2017, 10:03:25 am »
http://www.thestylus.net/news/view.php/1023539/Athletic-Department-puts-quotGo-Greenquo

I'm posting this article from a year ago (and about an E8 team) because I'm curious what you guys think of it.

I'm strange, and I really like collecting old Ithaca football media guides and game programs. The media guides are easy enough to store online, but the game programs won't be. I don't know, it's sort of a weird thing about D-III sports stuff. In the big time pro/college sports, it feels like all the information we ever need is right at our fingertips. But old D-III stuff is already being lost to time. How many copies exist of the 1980 Ithaca football media guide—which of course, is not digitized? If some player sets a school or NCAA record in a game, the game program for that day would be a cool piece of history.

I actually have a DVD of something that IC's radio/TV stations produced after they won the 1991 Stagg Bowl. It's a season yearbook recap, like you used see with pro teams. Weekly highlights, intercut with player commentary. This aired on TV a few times, and my Dad recorded it on VHS and then transferred it to DVD. It's got PSA breaks and everything. I realized that the number of people who have this is probably vanishingly small—which I admit, is probably not much less than the number of people who care about its existence. But still. That's why I keep coming to these boards. It's fun to talk to people who have institutional knowledge

Call me "Old School" if you want, but I'm with you on this, Bombers. As a kid attending Alfred football games with my family, I always kept the game programs. At the time, Johnny Nelson, an unheralded Red Smith who could tell a story with the best of them, included features in the program that I still love to read. When the team was on the road and Mom and Dad left us kids home, we'd sit in the living room and listen to the game on the radio. During commercial breaks, we'd quiz each other on the names of the Saxons, using the previous game's program. Great fun! Perhaps that's why I remember names like Bill Assenheimer, Andy Pomeroy, Al Newton, Robert Gueldner, Joe Kovacs, Pete DeSocio, Henry Bzdak, the Young brothers, Mark Edstrom, Don Hockenberry, Chris Guerrieri, etal

At the annual football banquet, they distributed a "Year in Review" that was always a keepsake, which, regrettably, they no longer do. I had quite a collection of them, thrown together with the game programs. After I started working with the Alfred Sun, I loved the preseason "Media Day" when they'd hand out the media guide and allow us to meet the players. They'd take group photos of the players from various regions of the state to send to newspapers in that area. Nowadays, there's no media day but that doesn't stop me from attending practices and interacting with players. I DO miss the printed media guide with all the records, results, etc.

In recent years, one of the grad assistant coaches produces a season highlight film which is screened at the annual banquet. I have acquired a collection of them. It's been awhile since I watched any of them. The archived webcasts of the 2016 season have been my off-season football entertainment this year and are enjoyable.

When I began working at the AU library, I donated my collection of game programs, media guides and years in review to the University archives, where they are easier to find than had I kept them to myself. I have accessed them on occasion as I continue to make progress on a book I'm calling "Yunie."

And, while I appreciate the ease of searching digitized information, I find there's nothing quite like perusing an old football program or media guide.

Maybe I'm slow to embrace new technology, new ways, but I do understand it's probably about time The Alfred Sun was available online. Subscription renewal forms include a reader survey and it seems more and more of our readers would read it online were it available. Personally, I love the printed newspaper. It's portable. It's flexible. It's easy on the eyes. You can drop it and it won't break. You don't need to recharge it. Heck, you don't even need electricity to enjoy it. And when you're done, you can wrap things in it. Or line your bird cage. You get the idea.

Pep respects the concept of good stewardship of our resources but, in Pep's view, there's no lack of trees...and they just keep growing!

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Offline Bartman

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49390 on: August 01, 2017, 02:46:17 pm »
I expected to see Shane Sweeney and Brandon Shed as  first team All Americans on D3. com, but happy to also see Rio Schmidt as second team special teams as Punter......I think he is awesome on fakes as well(Mount Union)...congrats to all three Statesmen....may you live up to the expectations!
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Offline dlip

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49391 on: August 02, 2017, 12:22:24 pm »
I expected to see Shane Sweeney and Brandon Shed as  first team All Americans on D3. com, but happy to also see Rio Schmidt as second team special teams as Punter......I think he is awesome on fakes as well(Mount Union)...congrats to all three Statesmen....may you live up to the expectations!

Congrats to Hobart's QB/WR tandem of Shane Sweeney and Brandon Shed on their selections as pre-season first team All Americans and Punter Rio Schmidt (P) on being named to the second team! Just awesome. Wishing the three of them an amazing 2017 season!

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49392 on: August 02, 2017, 12:24:31 pm »
Congrats to Ithaca's Jordan Schemm (Ret Specialist) on being named to the Pre-season All American second team! Wishing Jordan a great 2017 campaign!

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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49393 on: August 02, 2017, 07:00:05 pm »
Congrats to Ithaca's Jordan Schemm (Ret Specialist) on being named to the Pre-season All American second team! Wishing Jordan a great 2017 campaign!

Schemm really is tremendous, and a class act. For anyone interested, here is a highlight reel of his 2016 season that he had me make for him.

https://youtu.be/75_Ll_ksFno
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Re: FB: Liberty League
« Reply #49394 on: August 03, 2017, 08:49:57 am »
Congrats to Ithaca's Jordan Schemm (Ret Specialist) on being named to the Pre-season All American second team! Wishing Jordan a great 2017 campaign!

Schemm really is tremendous, and a class act. For anyone interested, here is a highlight reel of his 2016 season that he had me make for him.

https://youtu.be/75_Ll_ksFno

Great video. Mike Welch churned out All-American return men like he had an assembly line.

Schemm was the 6th Welch return man to earn AA honors—and that doesn't even include Sam Carney, who averaged 30 yards per kick return in 2013, and had a KR and PR for a TD.