2017 Great Lakes Region

Started by Domino1195, February 28, 2017, 04:29:17 PM

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TableMax

Huh?  What?  "SOME of the OAC teams may be better than thought"

Ok. 

PaulNewman

Quote from: TableMax on September 21, 2017, 10:29:39 PM
Huh?  What?  "SOME of the OAC teams may be better than thought"

Ok.

That's what you got out of that post?  OK.

Kenyon isn't very good.  You have to factor that in to your analysis.  Just because someone is weaker doesn't mean another team is by definition stronger.  It's relative.  And I merely suggested that Kenyon isn't as strong as some predicted and some OAC teams are stronger than I thought.  You don't think that's fair?  Want me to crown a couple of the OAC teams national champions?  And scorelines don't tell the full story.  They certainly count in the W-L column but a result of game doesn't necessarily tell you that the winner is miles and miles better than we thought.

MidwestGrinder

Really scratching my head with Kenyon this season. They really blew up on the scene in 2014 and since then have posted a 45-4-1 record in the previous three regular seasons, including a 12-0-0 record versus the OAC in that span.

Now here they are at 4-2-2 and 1-2-1 versus the OAC in 2017. Where did the wheels fall off the wagon?

Domino1195

Perhaps one of the worst descriptors for a very talented collection of players is "Golden Generation". Several national teams who have been dubbed by pundits with this title failed to achieve the championships "expected". Expectations translate to fore gone conclusions by fans and followers, and invariably disappointment when the teams "under perform." Belgium is in the hot seat now.

Unlike national sides, we're dealing with 18-22 year old boys. Emotion is more important to college athletes than (perhaps) professional. Huge turnover in the starting line up is more unsettling than fans think. Returning players may be very talented, but the on-field chemistry of the starting XI takes time to re-establish. ONU goes to the championship game in 2012  (25-3 record), 2013 record 18-4, 2014 record 12-8.

Kenyon had such a collection of players these past 3-4 years. I saw them play in person a dozen times - it's a shorter drive from my house to Kenyon than it is to Capital. Not ready to write them off - but they have work to do emotionally and tactically. Tactically - Woo has to be on the ball more, Myers CANNOT be the team's leading scorer, and they have to make quicker decisions on the ball. Too. Slow. Emotionally? If I could answer that I'd have a private practice and would be a millionaire . . .

TableMax

Kenyon over Berg. Wittenberg
OWU will SMASH Oberlin

ONU will prevail at home.

JCU the best team in the GL will prove it again on Sunday. Yes they can win it all in 2017

Lions over the Falcons   

DonkeyTouch

Honestly, I don't understand why so many in this thread are confused about "what is wrong" with Kenyon.

ONU graduated 6 regular starters and their top 2 career goal-scorers. Graduated a 3 year starter at GK.  Nobody is asking what is wrong with the Polar Bears.  They are rebuilding.  Also, Geneva, Grove City, and OWU are all pretty good. Yet, even in a rebuilding year, ONU has the talent and the pedigree to be in the conversation for an OAC title (No, I don't think they are beating JCU this year - but I wouldn't be stunned).

Kenyon graduated 5 regular starters and their top 2 career goal-scorers.  Graduated a 4 year starter at GK.  Why are we so confused as to what's wrong?  They are rebuilding.  Also, JCU, TMore, and, it appear HBerg are all pretty good (sorry Marietta, not convinced yet.. yes you drew with Kenyon but you didn't cross midfield).  Even in a rebuilding year, Kenyon has the talent and the pedigree to be in the picture for an NCAC title.

Maybe all the whingeing is just because there are some disappointed Lords homers in the thread - but come on.

ONU is down because Kinkopf, Janusz, Horton and McNeil are really tough to replace.  Are the younger guys talented - yep. Are they "as good".. probably not.

Kenyon is down because Amolo, Glassman, Lee and Clougher are really tough to replace.  Are the younger guys talented - yep. Are they "as good".. probably not.  It's not rocket science.


PaulNewman

First, my post was about Kenyon, not the OAC.  Secondly, Tablemax, if you look a little further up in that post from what you quoted I wrote "...not just better than I thought, but much better..."

I'm not confused.  Several of us have said Kenyon lost a lot.  They still have had some poor results and should not be sitting at 4-2-2.  I can guarantee you that they are not happy with the outcomes of the last three games.

Domino, you bring up what I think is one of the most important points.  EXPECTATIONS.  Once they're there, then there is hardly any room for upside surprise.  Same dynamic in the stock market.  Once you've done really well the room to surprise on the upside shrinks considerably.  The 2014, 2015 and 2016 teams (internally and externally) had a goal of at least Final Four and at least one national title in those three years.  As fans we fall that trap all the time.  No one is going to care that the Celtics got to the Eastern Conference Finals.  And they definitely won't care if the Celtics are good this year but bow out earlier or don't progress to the NBA Finals.  When there is little room to surprise that creates tremendous pressure.  Even neutrals have considered bowing out in the Elite 8 to be disappointing...focusing more on hurdles not cleared rather than how good you have to be to get to Sweet 16s and Elite 8s.  Amherst faced the same reaction until they finally broke through.  Domino, I imagine that you are feeling some of the same with Capital this year.  Last year Capital was a new hot team and I'd bet you felt really excited.  The best feeling for Kenyon was in 2013 when they knew they had a good team but not many others did.  They seemed to come out of nowhere and there was a ton of room for upside surprise.  Then they beat Ohio Northern (the year after ONU was the national finalist) and Wheaton (Ill) (when Wheaton was excellent) back to back, followed by the strong showing in an electric atmosphere at Messiah.  Because of that major upside surprise, however, the 2014 team believed they should win the national title or at least get to the Final Four with hopefully a rematch with the Falcons.  They had a record-setting season that ended with bitter disappointment.  Human nature is to remember the disappointment more than a great season.

Domino1195

With respect to emerging phenomenon - business teaches to ask probing questions, the most important being: is this phenomenon a trend or a fad? Trends are significant market forces that would cause a business to make fundamental changes to the organization. Misinterpreting a fad for a trend could be deadly.  Urban Cowboy movie had every yay-hoo dressin' up all western like; within two years factories were closing as quickly as they were built - Tony Lama story here: http://www.nytimes.com/1982/11/27/us/makers-of-western-apparel-suffer-from-death-of-the-urban-cowboy-fad.html?mcubz=3

PN: the conversation we got going last week - it's all about emergence and decline; branding and culture; and what does it take for a team to continue a trend, deal with a (hopefully temporary) decline. Managing an emerging brand - Capital? - what's involved in that? How to you guard against becoming a fad and maintain a trend that leads to a long-standing culture?  What is the identity of an merging brand - who maintains it, who owns it?  Do the stakeholders realize their level of ownership? Extreme Ownership: How U.S. Navy SEALs Lead and Win - my son read this during the summer - trying to get the rest of the lads to understand their part.

F(x)= XXvar1 + XXvar2 ... each team's equation: what do we need to be successful.

There are so many variables involved in building a team - season by season the variables and challenges change.  No two teams answer the equation the same way - and from season to season the equation changes for the same club.

We have a year unlike the previous 4 in the GL. Saturday's another day to see what's in our box of chocolates.

DonkeyTouch

Quote from: PaulNewman on September 22, 2017, 11:22:00 AM

.... I'm not confused.  Several of us have said Kenyon lost a lot.  They still have had some poor results and should not be sitting at 4-2-2.  I can guarantee you that they are not happy with the outcomes of the last three games.

Domino, you bring up what I think is one of the most important points.  EXPECTATIONS.  ....

Okay - I agree. Performance since 2013 put certain EXPECTATIONS on the 2017 Kenyon side.  But - my point is there is something wrong with the expectations, not with the team. Ask "why did we expect this group to be a top 10 team" - not "what the heck is wrong in that locker room". Why shouldn't they be sitting at 4-2-2? What gives you that impression?  Okay... outshooting Marietta 25-5 and bending the freaking crossbar several times probably tells us the result was an aberration. So, let's say they "should" be 5-2-1. Why are we measuring this group of young men by the standard from a different group of young men?

I didn't watch TMore - but the stats tell me that isn't an unfair result.. perhaps a bit unlucky, but not unfair.  I did watch last night - and Heidelberg can straight up counterattack.  It's myopic to just say that's a game Kenyon "should" win based on 4 years of (truly impressive) success.

Of course the team and staff are unhappy with the last 3 results.  Of course it's folly within the program or within the fan base to just lower the expectations because of graduation.  If Coach Brown was doing anything other than demanding better as they prepare for conference play... he'd be nuts.  Similarly, any program used to winning will suffer through some identity crises in a year where they just aren't as good. 

But searching for the magic dust to explain what ails them is silly. The magic dust is better players.  All of the intangibles being referenced... culture, branding, chemistry, ownership and buy-in.... hell in this case even tactics - are they the difference maker in a contest between 2 elite teams? Yes. But Kenyon isn't elite this year.  The good news is they still are very good - and I think there is enough in Gambier to say they will be elite again in the future. 

Domino1195

Quote from: DonkeyTouch on September 22, 2017, 03:18:50 PM
(Snip)
But searching for the magic dust to explain what ails them is silly. The magic dust is better players.  All of the intangibles being referenced... culture, branding, chemistry, ownership and buy-in.... hell in this case even tactics - are they the difference maker in a contest between 2 elite teams? Yes. But Kenyon isn't elite this year.  The good news is they still are very good - and I think there is enough in Gambier to say they will be elite again in the future. 

I don't like the word Elite - Elite is defined by time, and time eventually provides an end to this status. This year I've seen more top GL teams beat themselves.

I've seen dozens of GL games this year and I can provide a scouting report on most of the top teams: I know what they do well, I know where they can be weak. I know how teams can win and lose every game.  It's not parity this year - although I think there are a lot of teams that are very equal and capable - it's inconsistency.  Of the inconsistent play I've seen, the most significant factor is poor decision-making.  It is speed of play, it is three-touch, holding the ball too long.  It is the back line getting caught out of position, not communicating. It is a non-assertive DM and midfield.  It's defenders playing "Honduran" defense: doing dumb crap like trying to dribble out of their defensive third.  It's overly aggressive GK's who should be shot every time they come racing out of the 6 for NO REASON other than they're bored.

After that - inability to finish is the second cause for losses. Skill lets every player down, but some of the open looks kids are missing are mind-numbing.

It's all about tactics and attitude.  Every top team has good players.  Winning is a matter of executing the game plan - tactics and adjustments; it's about attitude - the will to win. The coach, the seniors, the captains - they have to get a team ready to play.




Domino1195

So father worst performance is by the CMU camera crew . . .

D3soccerwatcher

Yes CMU camera work is below average.

D3soccerwatcher

I thought Grove City had the better of the play in the first half. But CMU leads 1-0 on a corner kick.

Domino1195

What a strike for CMU's second. Still - a quagmire of a game (giggity) - a grinder. GC just not doing enough by defending and hoping. A feisty performance by weathered by GC- but CMU will do what it needs to win. Sunday's game against JCU - I frickin' might have to drive over to see this one.

TableMax

TMC tied Kenyon away.  Lost 3-2 at Nationally ranked Transylvania.  Can Capital win 2 years in a row at TMC??