FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

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DPU3619

Quote from: bashbrother on July 24, 2016, 08:03:44 PM
I'll break the radio silence....here is My initial NCAC Championship Race Projection

1. Wabash 9-0 (10-0 overall)
2. Depauw 8-1 (Loss to Wabash) (9-1 overall)
3. Witt  7-2 (Wabash, Depauw)  (7-3 overall)
4. OWU - 6-3 (Wabash, Depauw and Witt) (6-4 overall)

Wabash gets AQ
Depauw in the Pool C conversation

Game(s) of the Year - 

9/24 -  Wabash at Witt
10/08 -  Depauw at Witt
11/12- Depauw at Wabash
( at game time, Wabash ranked #7, Depauw #15 )

I hesitate to dip my toe in the water on this one, but I'm going to do it anyway. It does seem pretty likely that if DePauw gets by Witt, they'll get to Hollett at 9-0. I think DePauw will certainly be improved from a year ago. I think it's Wabash, then it's DePauw, then it's Witt, then somebody from the rest of that mess has to finish 4th. OWU? Denison? I think Oberlin will be better. Huge fan of their OC. New QB for them, but last year's QB is now on the coaching staff.

sigma one

#33121
Witt, 7-3 overall.  OK, in your scenario they lose to DePauw and Wabash, and another team.  If they are 7-2 in the NCAC, then they lose to Capital?  Not likely.  Did you mean to say they finish 8-2?  That's the way I have it playing out.  A significant factor, however, is that they get both the Dannies and the LGs in Springfield.  They are historically tough at home. 
     After these three, I'll put    4/5 Denison, OWU   (toss-up)  Who wins their head-to-head finishes 4th
                                             6    Hiram
                                             7    Wooster
                                             8/9 Allegheny/Oberlin  (because Hammer will make the defense and offense better)
                                             10  Kenyon 
                                             
                                         

wally_wabash

I go on vacation for a minute and so many things happen.  First-

Quote from: BashDad on July 15, 2016, 11:56:57 PM
Post-2001

1. Chamblee / Short
2. Summers
3. Lemond
4. Horn / Bronough
5. Russell / Clifton

1- Ryan Short 45 TDs is kind of the beginning and end of that
2- Kody Lemond he and Short are the only guys with 5+ rpg that we're talking about...Kody's ypg is also highest ever and he did what he did in 27 games which is crazy...was absolutely about to crush the all time receiving yardage mark had he not lost 2010
3- Wes Chamblee all time return guy, plus a dangerous, dangerous receiver even if the total receiving stats don't pop...can't forget the massive catches he made vs. CWRU in 2008 and North Central in 2011
4 - Jon Horn great hands, always reliable, almost 2400 yards and 19 TDs for a career is excellent
5- Eric Summers I feel horrible for having Eric #5 here because he really was great.  Steady as they come.  Will never forget Summers getting the 86 yard fly that stunned E-M Field in the epic 2002 game vs. Witt. 

Quote from: old wabash on July 21, 2016, 05:43:49 PM
TWO whole days...and no comments on preseason rankings?!? ???

Quick thoughts.
- think Wabash is a touch low, but I can understand some voters taking a cautious approach with the coaching changeover. 
- think DePauw is too low, but that's what you get when you keep losing to OWU and getting squashed by Wabash.  They can easily outperform their preseason position in 2016 though. 
- Some legacy votes out there for Wittenberg.  Lot of turnover on their two-deep this year and they dropped both of their big games last year.  Was kind of surprised they received votes, tbh. 

Quote from: bashbrother on July 24, 2016, 08:03:44 PM
Game(s) of the Year - 

9/24 -  Wabash at Witt
10/08 -  Depauw at Witt
11/12- Depauw at Wabash
( at game time, Wabash ranked #7, Depauw #15 )

Would add DPU/OWU in there as well, at least until DPU solves the Bishops.  I think it's tough for DPU to get all the way to 15 by week 11 unless they really, really smash people.  DPU is going to have to really earn that top 15 spot probably by beating Wabash and winning a game or two in the tournament. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bashbrother

#33123
Quote from: sigma one on July 25, 2016, 06:50:38 AM
Witt, 7-3 overall.  OK, in your scenario they lose to DePauw and Wabash, and another team.  If they are 7-2 in the NCAC, then they lose to Capital?  Not likely.  Did you mean to say they finish 8-2?  That's the way I have it playing out.  A significant factor, however, is that they get both the Dannies and the LGs in Springfield.  They are historically tough at home. 
     After these three, I'll put    4/5 Denison, OWU   (toss-up)  Who wins their head-to-head finishes 4th
                                             6    Hiram
                                             7    Wooster
                                             8/9 Allegheny/Oberlin  (because Hammer will make the defense and offense better)
                                             10  Kenyon                                 
                                       

I have them losing to Capital  (on a hunch) .....  I believe Witt is going to have a bunch of things to figure out early in the season.......   Capital is not going to stay bad forever.   Last year's 4th Qtr was a wild one for the Crusaders.    Probably wrong... but we'll see.
Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

sigma one


wally_wabash

Wow!  We've got our first Bold Prediction™ of 2016! 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Dr. Acula

Whoa!  Bold is right!

Cap is in another transition year with the turnover at HC.  Looking at Hamline's stats it looks like they passed for more yards than they rushed.  With Cap's roster filled with true option offensive players that could make it interesting until the new HC gets his guys in there.  I think Witt may be down a little, but I think Cap is going to be also.

bashbrother

 I just don't like Witt very much.   

May be wishful thinking,  but I loved Capital's fight in the game I saw against Witt last year.   Did not know about any of the changes.

Another story line -   In 2017,  Wabash will try to make it 8 years in a row to win the Bell.    The Bell has not stayed overnight in Greencastle since Nov. 2009....  I love this.   ;)

Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

HansenRatings

The way my model sees it right now:













Team  Overall  Conference  Pool A Probability 
Wabash  10-0  (9-0)  64.67%
Wittenberg  9-1  (8-1)  25.01%
DePauw  7-3  (6-3)  7.46%
Ohio Wesleyan  6-4  (6-3)  1.84%
Denison  6-4  (5-4)  0.89%
Kenyon  4-6  (3-6)  0.07%
Hiram  3-7  (3-6)  0.04%
Wooster  3-7  (3-6)  0.02%
Oberlin  2-8  (2-7)  0.00%
Allegheny  0-10  (0-9)  0.00%

https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

I understand the hesitation with Witt, but from my analysis the nationwide trend is that teams with a good (recent) history tend to outperform up & coming programs. Not saying that will definitely be the case, but it's usually the safest bet. The model does give DePauw a 18% (1 in 5) chance of finishing 8-1 or better in the conference.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

wally_wabash

Quote from: HansenRatings on July 25, 2016, 04:16:36 PM
The way my model sees it right now:













Team  Overall  Conference  Pool A Probability 
Wabash  10-0  (9-0)  64.67%
Wittenberg  9-1  (8-1)  25.01%
DePauw  7-3  (6-3)  7.46%
Ohio Wesleyan  6-4  (6-3)  1.84%
Denison  6-4  (5-4)  0.89%
Kenyon  4-6  (3-6)  0.07%
Hiram  3-7  (3-6)  0.04%
Wooster  3-7  (3-6)  0.02%
Oberlin  2-8  (2-7)  0.00%
Allegheny  0-10  (0-9)  0.00%

https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

I understand the hesitation with Witt, but from my analysis the nationwide trend is that teams with a good (recent) history tend to outperform up & coming programs. Not saying that will definitely be the case, but it's usually the safest bet. The model does give DePauw a 18% (1 in 5) chance of finishing 8-1 or better in the conference.

Reed Florence ain't walking through that door. Sort of. You know what I mean.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bashbrother

#33130
If I am reading Witt's roster correctly and if none of them are coming back for a 5th year.

Witt's Offense loses:

1.  Jenkins  (threw 95% of Witt passes in 2015)  Next man up only 10 attempts.   6 of these were in their last game...
2.  Top 2 running backs -  (Gary & Denke)
3.  Two of their top three WR's -   (Stump & Culvahouse)

On a positive note,  it looks like their offense returns all but one.

I am sure Witt has quality players on their roster to step up, they always do,  but it might take some time.

Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

HansenRatings

Quote from: bashbrother on July 27, 2016, 12:28:36 AM
If I am reading Witt's roster correctly and if none of them are coming back for a 5th year.

Witt's Offense loses:

1.  Jenkins  (threw 95% of Witt passes in 2015)  Next man up only 10 attempts.   6 of these were in their last game...
2.  Top 2 running backs -  (Gary & Denke)
3.  Two of their top three WR's -   (Stump & Culvahouse)

On a positive note,  it looks like their offense returns all but one.

I am sure Witt has quality players on their roster to step up, they always do,  but it might take some time.

It's still possible, if not likely, that once I can get every team's number of returning starters plugged back into the model that DePauw will surpass Witt in the ratings. Each (average) returning starter above the national average (6.75 returning per unit) is worth 1.5 points per game. So if DePauw has 5 more returning starters than Witt, they would close the gap by 7.5 ppg.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

sigma one

Pat and Hansen:  Do you have a definition of "returning starter"?  Or do coaches simply report their returning numbers according to their own criteria.  For example, in the absence of specific guidelines a coach might report a returning starter as a player who started, let's say, two or the final three games when the starter who began the season in injured.  Or a coach might think that a player who started half (or three or four) or more of the previous season's games is a returning starter.  In a strict sense any player who started even one game could be counted as a returning starter if the coach has authority to define the term in any way he wants.  I can even imagine a coach under-reporting the number of returners for whatever reasons--motivation, etc.   And so on.  So, again, is there a common "rule" for how a coach must define returning starter?  Given that Hansen is a mathematical system that gives points for the number of returning starters it might skew the numbers, although probably only slightly, if coaches can decide how to report their returning guys.
     I'm asking the question because, using Wabash as an example, I could argue that there are X number or returning starters or X+?. 

HansenRatings

Quote from: sigma one on July 27, 2016, 10:19:28 AM
Pat and Hansen:  Do you have a definition of "returning starter"?  Or do coaches simply report their returning numbers according to their own criteria.  For example, in the absence of specific guidelines a coach might report a returning starter as a player who started, let's say, two or the final three games when the starter who began the season in injured.  Or a coach might think that a player who started half (or three or four) or more of the previous season's games is a returning starter.  In a strict sense any player who started even one game could be counted as a returning starter if the coach has authority to define the term in any way he wants.  I can even imagine a coach under-reporting the number of returners for whatever reasons--motivation, etc.   And so on.  So, again, is there a common "rule" for how a coach must define returning starter?  Given that Hansen is a mathematical system that gives points for the number of returning starters it might skew the numbers, although probably only slightly, if coaches can decide how to report their returning guys.
     I'm asking the question because, using Wabash as an example, I could argue that there are X number or returning starters or X+?.

I get my number directly from the team capsules in Kickoff, which lists each unit as "X returning out of 11," so I'm assuming that each coach is listing how many of their Top 11 offensive/defensive starters from the previous year, but nearly every conference is being covered by a different writer (even though I feel like they're all given the same prompts from Pat & Keith), and each coach may have a different definition of what a returning starter is, so it's not a very scientific sample.

Pat was kind enough to share some info with me that he has compiled for their preseason rankings in '14-'16, which has a positional breakdown of returning starters for some of the top ~50 teams. From that report, I can tell you that many coaches have very different opinions on what a returning starter is. Many coaches listed more than eleven positions on offense, and several had more than one returning starter at QB. UW-Platteville in 2014 for example, had two quarterbacks returning that had been a starter for the majority of two different seasons (injuries, backups & what-not), so they listed "2 of 2" returning at QB. St. Thomas last year listed 2 of 3 returning at QB because they started 3 different QB's start a game in 2014. It's a bit of a crapshoot really without knowing for sure. (I'll have a blog post sometime this week or next with some of my findings from that data, so be on the lookout)

If I had it my way, I would do the same thing Bill Connelly does at footballstudyhall.com (http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football-previews-2016-team-by-team?_ga=1.198434729.747189368.1461181937), and use returning production as opposed to returning starters, but there's a lot of teams in DIII. I'm currently trying to learn a bit about web scraping (writing a program that can look up and organize data from a web page) so I could try to look up each team's yearly stats, but that will probably be a project for the 2017 preseason ratings.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

wally_wabash

Quote from: HansenRatings on July 27, 2016, 11:07:25 AM
If I had it my way, I would do the same thing Bill Connelly does at footballstudyhall.com (http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football-previews-2016-team-by-team?_ga=1.198434729.747189368.1461181937), and use returning production as opposed to returning starters, but there's a lot of teams in DIII. I'm currently trying to learn a bit about web scraping (writing a program that can look up and organize data from a web page) so I could try to look up each team's yearly stats, but that will probably be a project for the 2017 preseason ratings.

I'm probably not sharing new information with you, but just in case I'll pitch the NCAA's stat page which I use A LOT during a season.  It is loaded with data.  I don't know how easy it is to scrub for your purposes, but when I'm hunting for stats (particularly when I'm comparing teams from different conferences/regions), that's usually my first stop before I try to navigate specific team websites (which, in D3, can range on the spectrum from awesome to virtually useless). 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire