D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best.
Respectfully, I believe this game gives us an idea of the relative strengths of the programs that we saw in the playoffs.  To use a term from natural sciences, we talk about "quantums"  (yes, the 2nd declension neuter plural is quanta) on these boards all of the time.

In the post game interview, the coach who has just played The Machine (e.g., UMU) knows what his program must do to reach the next level. In recent podcasts, Pat and Keith talked about how Brockport was supposed to be approaching the next level and how JHU had played UMU in 2016 and should be approaching the next level for the 2018 game.

I believe we saw a lot out of JHU.  I am very happy they were bracketed up the east coast for geographic proximity to help me figure out the strength of that part of the South Region, especially for my ballot in the South Region Fan Poll. And, JHU dispatched the East Region just like the strong Salisbury and Wesley teams from the old ACFC days. That is why I want to see what Mount Union team shows up this year. We saw how UMHB handled the MIAC champ (SJU this time) and the WIAC champ. We have a very good idea of how the champions of the Power Conferences ( IMHO, ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC OAC & WIAC perform) and how to rank them for the next year's Kickoff Magazine.

Before this game, my impression is that the left bracket was very weak and I want to see how this UMU team compares the previous teams.

Thanks.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best.
Respectfully, I believe this game gives us an idea of the relative strengths of the programs that we saw in the playoffs.  To use a term from natural sciences, we talk about "quantums"  (yes, the 2nd declension neuter plural is quanta) on these boards all of the time.

In the post game interview, the coach who has just played The Machine (e.g., UMU) knows what his program must do to reach the next level. In recent podcasts, Pat and Keith talked about how Brockport was supposed to be approaching the next level and how JHU had played UMU in 2016 and should be approaching the next level for the 2018 game.

I believe we saw a lot out of JHU.  I am very happy they were bracketed up the east coast for geographic proximity to help me figure out the strength of that part of the South Region, especially for my ballot in the South Region Fan Poll. And, JHU dispatched the East Region just like the strong Salisbury and Wesley teams from the old ACFC days. That is why I want to see what Mount Union team shows up this year. We saw how UMHB handled the MIAC champ (SJU this time) and the WIAC champ. We have a very good idea of how the champions of the Power Conferences ( IMHO, ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC OAC & WIAC perform) and how to rank them for the next year's Kickoff Magazine.

Before this game, my impression is that the left bracket was very weak and I want to see how this UMU team compares the previous teams.

Thanks.

What result on Friday night would alter that impression? 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 02:18:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best.
Respectfully, I believe this game gives us an idea of the relative strengths of the programs that we saw in the playoffs.  To use a term from natural sciences, we talk about "quantums"  (yes, the 2nd declension neuter plural is quanta) on these boards all of the time.

In the post game interview, the coach who has just played The Machine (e.g., UMU) knows what his program must do to reach the next level. In recent podcasts, Pat and Keith talked about how Brockport was supposed to be approaching the next level and how JHU had played UMU in 2016 and should be approaching the next level for the 2018 game.

I believe we saw a lot out of JHU.  I am very happy they were bracketed up the east coast for geographic proximity to help me figure out the strength of that part of the South Region, especially for my ballot in the South Region Fan Poll. And, JHU dispatched the East Region just like the strong Salisbury and Wesley teams from the old ACFC days. That is why I want to see what Mount Union team shows up this year. We saw how UMHB handled the MIAC champ (SJU this time) and the WIAC champ. We have a very good idea of how the champions of the Power Conferences ( IMHO, ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC OAC & WIAC perform) and how to rank them for the next year's Kickoff Magazine.

Before this game, my impression is that the left bracket was very weak and I want to see how this UMU team compares the previous teams.

Thanks.

What result on Friday night would alter that impression?
A never-in-doubt UMHB win by 2 scores and domination of UMU that we have not seen before would tell me that the "West bracket" was much stronger.

A "knock down/drag out" like we have seen in 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2017 would cause me to reconsider JHU's playoff performance ahead of HSU.  For me, I believe that HSU would edge JHU head-to-head on a neutral field.

UMU domination would speak for itself.

Oline89


What result on Friday night would alter that impression?
[/quote]A never-in-doubt UMHB win by 2 scores and domination of UMU that we have not seen before would tell me that the "West bracket" was much stronger.

A "knock down/drag out" like we have seen in 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2017 would cause me to reconsider JHU's playoff performance ahead of HSU.  For me, I believe that HSU would edge JHU head-to-head on a neutral field.

UMU domination would speak for itself.
[/quote]

Just chiming in here, but what evidence is there that HSU would beat anyone outside of their conference?  They have played MHB close-ish (70-13 in last 3 meetings), lost to Linfield in last years playoff.  They are clearly the second best team in the ASC.  The second best team in the OAC, took it on the chin in the first round this year against an out of conference team.  I just feel that until teams play teams OOC, it is near impossible to judge national rankings.  Exact same argument (and one which I completely agree) is why NESCAC teams are never considered in top 25 polls, they play zero OOC games.  Not trying to disparage HSU or Texas football at all, but as scientist (I assume  :)), you have to agree that opinions can't stand up against hard evidence.

Ralph Turner

For me, the NWC (Whitworth or Linfield) is among the Power Conferences.

The geographic proximity of the CCIW, WIAC, MIAC, NWC, and the ASC pits really good teams against each other 1-2 games sooner than one would have in normally seeded brackets as we would see in March Madness.

emma17

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 02:32:15 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 02:18:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best.
Respectfully, I believe this game gives us an idea of the relative strengths of the programs that we saw in the playoffs.  To use a term from natural sciences, we talk about "quantums"  (yes, the 2nd declension neuter plural is quanta) on these boards all of the time.

In the post game interview, the coach who has just played The Machine (e.g., UMU) knows what his program must do to reach the next level. In recent podcasts, Pat and Keith talked about how Brockport was supposed to be approaching the next level and how JHU had played UMU in 2016 and should be approaching the next level for the 2018 game.

I believe we saw a lot out of JHU.  I am very happy they were bracketed up the east coast for geographic proximity to help me figure out the strength of that part of the South Region, especially for my ballot in the South Region Fan Poll. And, JHU dispatched the East Region just like the strong Salisbury and Wesley teams from the old ACFC days. That is why I want to see what Mount Union team shows up this year. We saw how UMHB handled the MIAC champ (SJU this time) and the WIAC champ. We have a very good idea of how the champions of the Power Conferences ( IMHO, ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC OAC & WIAC perform) and how to rank them for the next year's Kickoff Magazine.

Before this game, my impression is that the left bracket was very weak and I want to see how this UMU team compares the previous teams.

Thanks.

What result on Friday night would alter that impression?
A never-in-doubt UMHB win by 2 scores and domination of UMU that we have not seen before would tell me that the "West bracket" was much stronger.

A "knock down/drag out" like we have seen in 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2017 would cause me to reconsider JHU's playoff performance ahead of HSU.  For me, I believe that HSU would edge JHU head-to-head on a neutral field.

UMU domination would speak for itself.

Let me ask, if Mt beats UMHB by 9 or more points, is it fair to assume you will agree JHU should be ranked above UMHB?

jamtod

Quote from: emma17 on December 12, 2018, 04:44:42 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 02:32:15 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 02:18:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best.
Respectfully, I believe this game gives us an idea of the relative strengths of the programs that we saw in the playoffs.  To use a term from natural sciences, we talk about "quantums"  (yes, the 2nd declension neuter plural is quanta) on these boards all of the time.

In the post game interview, the coach who has just played The Machine (e.g., UMU) knows what his program must do to reach the next level. In recent podcasts, Pat and Keith talked about how Brockport was supposed to be approaching the next level and how JHU had played UMU in 2016 and should be approaching the next level for the 2018 game.

I believe we saw a lot out of JHU.  I am very happy they were bracketed up the east coast for geographic proximity to help me figure out the strength of that part of the South Region, especially for my ballot in the South Region Fan Poll. And, JHU dispatched the East Region just like the strong Salisbury and Wesley teams from the old ACFC days. That is why I want to see what Mount Union team shows up this year. We saw how UMHB handled the MIAC champ (SJU this time) and the WIAC champ. We have a very good idea of how the champions of the Power Conferences ( IMHO, ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC OAC & WIAC perform) and how to rank them for the next year's Kickoff Magazine.

Before this game, my impression is that the left bracket was very weak and I want to see how this UMU team compares the previous teams.

Thanks.

What result on Friday night would alter that impression?
A never-in-doubt UMHB win by 2 scores and domination of UMU that we have not seen before would tell me that the "West bracket" was much stronger.

A "knock down/drag out" like we have seen in 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2017 would cause me to reconsider JHU's playoff performance ahead of HSU.  For me, I believe that HSU would edge JHU head-to-head on a neutral field.

UMU domination would speak for itself.

Let me ask, if Mt beats UMHB by 9 or more points, is it fair to assume you will agree JHU should be ranked above UMHB?

No, because JHU has another loss on their resume.

If UMHB beats Mount by a couple of touchdowns, maybe one could justify putting SJU ahead of Mount, if one really applied margin of victory.

MRMIKESMITH

Quote from: emma17 on December 12, 2018, 04:44:42 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 02:32:15 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 02:18:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on December 12, 2018, 12:55:11 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 11:54:57 AM
Quote from: repete on December 11, 2018, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks, RT. Almost always enjoy hearing the thoughts behind these things, especially from the vets. (I'll let you and Wally spar on NCC.)
Thank for the kind words. I also enjoy reading your comments as one of the veterans of the message boards.

I really think that we saw the Stagg Bowl in the QF matchup between UMHB and SJU.

I will juggle HSU and JHU depending on the Stagg. JHU got to enhance its resume with its bracketing against the East Region.

Now we get to see the real strengths of the left versus the right bracket.

I think Friday's game is Mount Union's strengths vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor's strengths and extrapolating anything at all about the different halves of the entire championship tournament is spurious at best.
Respectfully, I believe this game gives us an idea of the relative strengths of the programs that we saw in the playoffs.  To use a term from natural sciences, we talk about "quantums"  (yes, the 2nd declension neuter plural is quanta) on these boards all of the time.

In the post game interview, the coach who has just played The Machine (e.g., UMU) knows what his program must do to reach the next level. In recent podcasts, Pat and Keith talked about how Brockport was supposed to be approaching the next level and how JHU had played UMU in 2016 and should be approaching the next level for the 2018 game.

I believe we saw a lot out of JHU.  I am very happy they were bracketed up the east coast for geographic proximity to help me figure out the strength of that part of the South Region, especially for my ballot in the South Region Fan Poll. And, JHU dispatched the East Region just like the strong Salisbury and Wesley teams from the old ACFC days. That is why I want to see what Mount Union team shows up this year. We saw how UMHB handled the MIAC champ (SJU this time) and the WIAC champ. We have a very good idea of how the champions of the Power Conferences ( IMHO, ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC OAC & WIAC perform) and how to rank them for the next year's Kickoff Magazine.

Before this game, my impression is that the left bracket was very weak and I want to see how this UMU team compares the previous teams.

Thanks.

What result on Friday night would alter that impression?
A never-in-doubt UMHB win by 2 scores and domination of UMU that we have not seen before would tell me that the "West bracket" was much stronger.

A "knock down/drag out" like we have seen in 2004, 2012, 2016 and 2017 would cause me to reconsider JHU's playoff performance ahead of HSU.  For me, I believe that HSU would edge JHU head-to-head on a neutral field.

UMU domination would speak for itself.

Let me ask, if Mt beats UMHB by 9 or more points, is it fair to assume you will agree JHU should be ranked above UMHB?

Not necessarily, I think it all comes down to match-ups. Some teams match-up pretty well against others. However, if Mount wins by 21 points and their "Game Control" is never in doubt, then I think it is a fair assessment. Regarding 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams. I think familiarity plays a huge part. For example John Carroll played Mount very close this year, before losing to RM, we assumed they were Top 10. However, in HSU case, they don't have that other data to say measure if they are Top 10 or not, Top 20, sure.

Ralph Turner

I think that the question for Pat's Top 25 voters for #1 and for #2 is which game looked like the "Stagg Bowl".

UMHB seemed to be in control, but SJU had Erdmann and "Johnnie Magic" If we have that suspense in the Stagg Bowl, the UMHB and UMU are #1 & #2, IMHO.

If UMU smacks down/"monkey stomps" UMHB, then you might consider JHU.

desertcat1

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 12, 2018, 05:38:31 PM
I think that the question for Pat's Top 25 voters for #1 and for #2 is which game looked like the "Stagg Bowl".

UMHB seemed to be in control, but SJU had Erdmann and "Johnnie Magic" If we have that suspense in the Stagg Bowl, the UMHB and UMU are #1 & #2, IMHO.

[/b]If UMU smacks down/"monkey stomps" UMHB, then you might consider JHU.


But ,frank said "the east is so tuff". Lol  :P :-*
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Ralph Turner on December 10, 2018, 01:05:30 PM
Awaiting the rest of bleedpurple's Alternative Reality Challenges...


Right now, my ballot has some variation of


1-3) MHB/MU/SJU, in alphabetical order for now
4) UWW  Lost to UMHB by 17
5-6) HSU (lost to UMHB by 21 twice)/ JHU (two costly pick-sixes away from the Stagg. But, how good is this UMU team which has its fans lamenting how un-Mount-like this team is?)
7)  Whitfield  Whitworth
8)  Bethel
9)  North Central
10)  ???  Everyone else was a monkey stomp away from the top 2 tiers

My top 9 after the Stagg Bowl.

1) UMHB
2) UMU -- another UMU-UMHB classic
3) SJU  -- a close 3rd
4) UWW -- solid 4th but easily handled by UMHB.
5) JHU  -  hung with UMU
6) HSU-- without Pre-season All-American Jaquan Hemphill who was injured in the 4th game, the game before the regular season UMHB, just not as good.
7) Whitworth -- I still stand by them and their performance relative to a strong SJU team
8) Bethel
9) North Central


...
10) Muhlenberg  -- yes, I can see Muhlenberg in the Top 10, but I did not want to seem like a South Region homer.

Final tally for the Official Top 25

South Region - #1, #5, #6, #9
West Region - #3, #4, #7, #10
North Region - #2, #8
East Region's best - # 11,12, 13

retagent

Just trying to get your thinking here. Since St John's had the closest game with UMHB this year, scored more points than any other team against the Cru, held them to their lowest point total of the year as well, would there have been any margin of victory for UMHB o?ver UMU that would have made you drop UMU from #2

Ralph Turner

#2293
Quote from: retagent on December 16, 2018, 04:59:43 PM
Just trying to get your thinking here. Since St John's had the closest game with UMHB this year, scored more points than any other team against the Cru, held them to their lowest point total of the year as well, would there have been any margin of victory for UMHB o?ver UMU that would have made you drop UMU from #2
Yes, a dominant two score win.

UMU just kept coming back, even after seeing the 10-point lead disappear.

Let's look at the Final Top 25 which is now posted.

SJU picked up 18 points in the balloting from Week #11 to the Final ballot, from 546 to 564.

UMU dropped from 619 to 597, 24 votes.

In week #11, I believe that UMU got 19 firsts, 5 seconds and 1 third place ballot to equal 619 points.
In week #11, I believe that UMHB got 6 firsts, 18 seconds and 1 third to equal 605 points.
Breakdowns beyond that are too numerous to count.

What we know of the Final Ballot, 2248 points of the possible 2250 were cast for UMU, SJU, UWW and JHU. Someone below the Final Top 5 got one 4th place vote or there were two 5th place votes given to a team(s) lower in the poll.  That looks like a near-unanimous Top 5.

In the final balloting, I firmly believe that UMU got 22 seconds and 3 thirds to give 597 points.

I will speculate that SJU got 3 second place votes. That would give them 72 points of their 564. If they had received 22 third place votes, then they would have had 578 points in the final poll. On those other 22 ballots they got a smattering of 4th and 5th place votes, enough to drop them 14 points below what the maximum could have given them.

However, I am then at a loss to figure UWW's vote totals. UWW gets 553 votes for 4th place. If they received 3 third place votes and 22 4th place votes, then that would have given them 553 points.  I have a hard time imagining UWW getting a second place vote.

JHU got 534 votes which is 9 more votes than a straight unanimous 5th place balloting, (25 times 21 points for 5th place = 525 points).  JHU got some 3rd and 4th place ballots, at someone's expense.




Mr. Ypsi

I haven't tried to work out the math, but my hunch would be that Bethel got two fifths, probably at the expense of JHU - they surely wouldn't have been voted above either SJU or UWW, both of whom beat Bethel (which would also mean that JHU got more 3rd or 4th place votes than you had speculated).