MBB: American Southwest Conference

Started by Sul Ross Lobos, February 26, 2005, 03:31:37 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: mcmfan on December 04, 2011, 08:45:30 PM
I hope you're right about getting our guys focused.  The last few years, our men have done better than our women, but so far this year it looks like the roles may be reversed.
That was the common theme on the coaches' interviews that are on the McMurry Sports Facebook page.

mcmfan

They appear to be still working on it, and they need to get it right before we play a hot HSU team next Monday.  McM beat Centenary 98-88 this afternoon, but they never managed to put them away.
Alacumba!

CUAfan

#3842
It's been a long, long time since I've been around. Below are the current per-possession standings for both divisions. Hopefully I'll be able to update them every week. They can also be found here, my blog (such as it is). I'm going to post the women's numbers over on that thread as well.

PPP - points per possession
Opp. PPP - opponents points per possession
Diff. - differential
Pace - possessions per game

ASC West
Team (W-L) - PPP/Opp. PPP/Diff./Pace
Hardin-Simmons (5-0) - 1.21/0.93/+0.29/72.2
McMurry (4-1) - 1.21/1.03/+0.18/73.6
Texas Lutheran (4-1) - 1.08/0.93/+0.16/73.0
Mary Hardin-Baylor (4-0) - 1.04/0.89/+0.15/77.0
Schreiner (3-2) - 1.06/1.02/+0.04/75.8
Concordia-Texas (2-2) - 1.01/1.01/+0.00/92.6
Sul Ross State (3-3) - 0.89/0.90/-0.01/64.5
Howard Payne (2-3) - 1.00/1.06/-0.06/72.5

Average - 1.06/0.97/+0.09/74.4

ASC East
Team (W-L) - PPP/Opp. PPP/Diff./Pace
Louisiana College (4-1) - 1.13/1.11/+0.02/72.1
Texas-Dallas (3-1) - 1.06/1.04/+0.02/67.3
Mississippi College (1-4) - 1.01/1.08/-0.07/71.2
East Texas Baptist (2-4) - 1.01/1.11/-0.10/77.6
Ozarks (0-6) - 0.98/1.11/-0.14/75.3
Texas-Tyler (1-5) - 0.92/1.07/-0.15/71.7
LeTourneau (0-5) - 0.80/1.01/-0.21/76.4

Average - 0.98/1.08/-0.10/73.4
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

#3843
Rough and not very scientific projections for this weekend's games (and one result for comparison).
12/19 - Edited to add results through games of 12/17.

(Actual results in italics)

Mary Hardin-Baylor 79 vs. Mississippi College 71 (74 possessions)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 84 vs. Mississippi College 70 (73 possessions)
Ozarks 72 vs. Texas-Dallas 77 (71 possessions)
Ozarks 62 vs. Texas-Dallas 73 (68 possessions)
Texas-Tyler 71 vs. LeTourneau 69 (74 possessions)
Texas-Tyler 64 vs. LeTourneau 67 (66 possessions)
Texas Lutheran 78 vs. Schreiner 74 (74 possessions)
Texas Lutheran 65 vs. Schreiner 66 (66 possessions)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 80 vs. Louisiana College 75 (75 possessions)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 84 vs. Louisiana College 71 (72 possessions)
Howard Payne 65 vs. Sul Ross State 67 (69 possessions)
Howard Payne 77 vs. Sul Ross State 73 (73 possessions)
Concordia-Texas 86 vs. Mississippi College 83 (82 possessions)
Concordia-Texas 121 vs. Mississippi College 107 (100 possessions)
Concordia-Texas 87 vs. Louisiana College 88 (82 possessions)
McMurry 78 vs. Hardin-Simmons 82 (73 possessions)
Let's go 'Nados!

Ralph Turner

Okay CUAfan...

HSU 81, McMurry 78.  (It would have been 82, if the HSU player had hit the first firee throw with 0:13 left!)

How many possessions did you calculations project?

So far, you are looking pretty good with your computer program! :)

CUAfan

#3845
I estimate 79 possessions in the game. They got to the final score I thought they would, they just took a few more possessions because they weren't as efficient as I thought they'd be.

To finish the weekend, CTX and Louisiana College finished at 93-92 in 96 possessions. They weren't as efficient as I thought they'd be, and thanks to the CTX run-and-gun game they had more possessions too. CTX is going to break my method for projecting pace, I think.
________________________________________________________________

Top Performances
Best offensive performance: 1.21 PPP (CTX vs. MC, 12/17)
Best defensive perfomance: 0.91 PPP (UTD at UO, 12/16)
Biggest offensive shootout: CTX (1.21 PPP) vs. MC (1.07 PPP), 12/17
Biggest defensive struggle: CTX (0.97 PPP) vs. LC (0.96 PPP), 12/19
________________________________________________________________

In a minute I'm going to post updated per-possession standings here and on the women's board. Hopefully I'll be able to get out projections for men and women this week.
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

Per-Possession Standings, through games of 12/19

ASC West
Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
Hardin-Simmons (6-0) - 1.18/0.94/+0.24/73.3
Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-0) - 1.08/0.92/+0.16/75.4
McMurry (4-2) - 1.17/1.03/+0.15/74.5
Texas Lutheran (4-2) - 1.07/0.94/+0.13/71.9
Schreiner (4-2) - 1.05/1.01/+0.04/74.2
Concordia-Texas (4-2) - 1.04/1.01/+0.03/94.4
Howard Payne (4-3) - 1.04/1.04/+0.00/72.4
Sul Ross State (3-4) - 0.91/0.93/-0.02/65.7

ASC East
Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
Texas-Dallas (4-1) - 1.06/1.01/+0.05/67.5
Louisiana College (4-3) - 1.08/1.09/-0.01/75.5
Mississippi College (1-6) - 1.02/1.12/-0.10/75.5
East Texas Baptist (2-4) - 1.01/1.11/-0.10/77.6
Texas-Tyler (1-6) - 0.93/1.06/-0.14/70.9
Ozarks (0-7) - 0.97/1.11/-0.14/74.3
LeTourneau (1-6) - 0.85/1.03/-0.19/74.2
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

#3847
Only two games over the next week due to Christmas. The projections below include a home-court adjustment that wasn't present last week. I finally finished game-by-game calculations on the men's side, and it turns out that so far this year the home team has been +0.05 overall, and I'm going to include that home/away differential in my projections going forward by adding it to the home team's per-possession estimate.

Schreiner 77 vs. Texas-Dallas 73 (71 possessions)
Schreiner 80 vs. Texas-Dallas 74 (64 possessions)
Texas Lutheran 76 vs. Texas-Dallas 70 (70 possessions)
Texas Lutheran 49 vs. Texas-Dallas 61 (64 possessions)
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

The per-possession standings didn't change at all with the two Texas-Dallas games this week. Since there won't be any more games for a while, I thought it would be a good time to call out some of the top team performances so far. Of course, me being me, this is all in per-possession terms.

Best Offensive Performances
1.39 - Mississippi College vs. Howard Payne (12/3)
1.34 - Texas-Dallas vs. McMurry (12/3)
1.31 - Hardin-Simmons vs. East Texas Baptist (12/10)

Best Defensive Performances
0.66 - Hardin-Simmons vs. LeTourneau (11/28)
0.73 - Texas-Tyler at Sul Ross State (12/8)
0.75 - Sul Ross State vs. LeTourneau (12/10)

Biggest Offensive Shootouts
Texas-Dallas (1.34) vs. McMurry (1.23), 12/3
Mississippi College (1.39) vs. Howard Payne (1.06), 12/3
Louisiana College (1.25) vs. Howard Payne (1.19), 12/1

Biggest Defensive Struggles
Sul Ross State (0.73) vs. Texas-Tyler (0.79), 12/8
Sul Ross State (0.83) vs. LeTourneau (0.75), 12/10
LeTourneau (0.78) vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor (0.90), 12/1

Most Dominating Wins
+0.47 - Hardin-Simmons (1.13) vs. LeTourneau (0.66), 11/28
+0.41 - Hardin-Simmons (1.31) vs. East Texas Baptist (0.90), 12/10
+0.34 - Mary Hardin-Baylor (1.16) at Texas-Tyler (0.81), 12/3

Closest Contests
+0.010 - Concordia-Texas (0.97) vs. Louisiana College (0.96)
+0.012 - Howard Payne (0.98) vs. Ozarks (0.96)
+0.015 - Texas Lutheran (0.98) vs. Schreiner (1.00)

I'm going to try to get the same info up on the womens' board today or tonight.
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

#3849
Projection for the one game this weekend.

Sul Ross State 70 vs. Howard Payne 68 (69 poss.)
Sul Ross State 60 vs. Howard Payne 54 (70 poss.)

I also have the team historical data compiled finally, except for 2000-01 and 1996-97 due to lack of data. Hopefully I'll be able to post some of it this week.
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

#3850
Sul Ross takes over the 7th spot in the West per-possession rankings with their win over HPU. I'm projecting a lot of wins for the West this weekend, but three games came out so close that I'm considering them to be toss-ups.

January 5, 2011
LeTourneau 68 vs. Texas Lutheran 75 (73 poss.)
LeTourneau 59 vs. Texas Lutheran 77 (74 poss.)
Mississippi College 80 vs. McMurry 86 (75 poss.)
Mississippi College 72 vs. McMurry 65 (77 poss.)
Ozarks 74 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 82 (75 poss.)
Ozarks 78 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 90 (68 poss.)
Louisiana College 79 vs. Hardin-Simmons 84 (74 poss.)
Louisiana College 64 vs. Hardin-Simmons 82 (74 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 79 vs. Howard Payne 79 (75 poss. - toss up)
East Texas Baptist 89 vs. Howard Payne 66 (84 poss. - not a toss up)
Texas-Tyler 74 vs. Schreiner 77 (72 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 86 vs. Schreiner 72 (77 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 87 vs. Concordia-Texas 82 (81 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 91 vs. Concordia-Texas 92 (84 poss. including OT)

January 7, 2011
East Texas Baptist 72 vs. Sul Ross State 72 (72 poss. - toss up)
East Texas Baptist 83 vs. Sul Ross State 75 (79 poss including OT)
Louisiana College 83 vs. McMurry 85 (75 poss.)
Louisiana College 64 vs. McMurry 75 (78 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 70 vs. Texas Lutheran 74 (71 poss.)
Texas-Tyler 81 vs. Texas Lutheran 72 (70 poss.)
LeTourneau 73 vs. Schreiner 77 (73 poss.)
LeTourneau 55 vs. Schreiner 69 (83 poss.)
Ozarks 87 vs. Concordia-Texas 90 (84 poss.)
Ozarks 107 vs. Concordia-Texas 98 (82 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 74 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 74 (71 poss. - toss up)
Texas-Dallas 56 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 64 (60 poss.)
Mississippi College 76 vs. Hardin-Simmons 85 (74 poss.)
Mississippi College 75 vs. Hardin-Simmons 82 (75 poss.)
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

#3851
Program rankings as of the 2010-11 season, regular season games only. Calculated by a weighted average of the last five seasons' per-possession differentials. Also included is my subjective estimation of the direction* the program was going before the season based on the inputs.

1. Texas-Dallas, +0.14, trending slightly up
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor, +0.11, trending slightly down
3. Mississippi College, +0.08, trending down
4. McMurry, +0.08, steady
5. East Texas Baptist, +0.06, trending up
6. Concordia-Texas, +0.03, trending slightly up
7. Texas-Tyler, +0.02, trending slightly up
8. Hardin-Simmons, +0.00, trending slightly down
9. Sul Ross State, -0.06, trending slightly up
10. LeTourneau, -0.07, trending down
11. Texas Lutheran, -0.07, trending slightly up
12. Ozarks, -0.08, steady
13. Louisiana College, -0.08, trending slightly up
14. Schreiner, -0.08, trending slightly up
15. Howard Payne, -0.09, trending slightly down

* - This doesn't mean it is going to continue in that direction, even this year. It just means that over the last five years, have they gone generally up or down.

I'm sorry if I annoy anyone with my continual numbers posting. I find this way of looking at the season and the history of the ASC interesting and I hope the rest of you do too.

Edit: Had to change some of the trends since I realized I'd done them wrong in Excel when I went to calculate this info for the women.
Let's go 'Nados!

Ralph Turner

Thanks for the posting CUAfan.  I enjoy reading them.

Big weekend with McMurry and HSU on the eastern swing thru LaCollege and MissCollege and UMHB and CTX on the road to UOz and UTD.

CUAfan

Note to UMHB/HSU fans - These guys have to play twice! Go watch, should be great.
Note to ASC East - Who's going to step up?

ASC West
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Hardin-Simmons (8-0) - 1.16/0.94/+0.22/73.6
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (8-0) - 1.11/0.95/+0.16/72.6
3. McMurry (5-3) - 1.10/0.99/+0.11/75.3
4. Texas Lutheran (5-4) - 1.02/0.94/+0.08/71.6
5. Schreiner (6-3) - 1.03/1.00/+0.03/74.4
6. Concordia-Texas (5-3) - 1.06/1.05/+0.01/91.5
7. Sul Ross State (4-5) - 0.91/0.93/-0.02/67.6
8. Howard Payne (4-5) - 0.98/1.02/-0.04/73.4

ASC East
# Team (W-L) - Off/Def/Net/Pace
1. Texas-Dallas (5-4) - 1.04/1.02/+0.02/68.2
2. East Texas Baptist (4-4) - 1.02/1.05/-0.03/78.6
3. Louisiana College (4-5) - 1.03/1.08/-0.05/75.6
4. Texas-Tyler (3-6) - 0.97/1.04/-0.07/71.5
5. Mississippi College (2-7) - 1.01/1.08/-0.08/75.7
6. Ozarks (1-8) - 1.03/1.14/-0.11/74.5
7. LeTourneau (1-8) - 0.82/1.01/-0.19/75.1
Let's go 'Nados!

CUAfan

#3854
Predictions for next week (out early since I'm going out of town tomorrow and Monday...and there are games on Monday).

January 9
Texas-Dallas 79 vs. Ozarks 72 (71 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 81 vs. Ozarks 58 (71 poss.)
LeTourneau 70 vs. Texas-Tyler 72 (73 poss.)
LeTourneau 62 vs. Texas-Tyler 61 (67 poss.)

January 10
Mary Hardin-Baylor 90 vs. Concordia-Texas 81 (82 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 94 vs. Concordia-Texas 73 (93 poss.)

January 12
East Texas Baptist 82 vs. Louisiana College 79 (77 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 86 vs. Louisiana College 62 (79 poss.)
Sul Ross State 66 vs. Hardin-Simmons 72 (71 poss.)
Sul Ross State 60 vs. Hardin-Simmons 57 (69 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 74 vs. Texas-Tyler 68 (70 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 73 vs. Texas-Tyler 38 (60 poss.)
Howard Payne 74 vs. McMurry 78 (74 poss.)
Howard Payne 94 vs. McMurry 90 (84 poss.)
Schreiner 74 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 76 (73 poss.)
Schreiner 60 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor 80 (81 poss.)
Ozarks 77 vs. LeTourneau 72 (75 poss.)
Ozarks 82 vs. LeTourneau 73 (68 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 83 vs. Texas Lutheran 83 (82 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 103 vs. Texas Lutheran 82 (101 poss.)

January 14
Ozarks 77 vs. Texas-Tyler 76 (73 poss.)
Ozarks 71 vs. Texas-Tyler 72 (72 poss.)
Sul Ross State 69 vs. McMurry 71 (71 poss.)
Sul Ross State 63 vs. McMurry 68 (66 poss.)
Howard Payne 72 vs. Hardin-Simmons 79 (74 poss.)
Howard Payne 76 vs. Hardin-Simmons 85 (77 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 87 vs. Schreiner 85 (83 poss.)
Concordia-Texas 84 vs. Schreiner 86 (82 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 75 vs. Texas Lutheran 70 (72 poss.)
Mary Hardin-Baylor 74 vs. Texas Lutheran 53 (65 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 75 vs. LeTourneau 65 (72 poss.)
Texas-Dallas 84 vs. LeTourneau 62 (62 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 82 vs. Mississippi College 78 (77 poss.)
East Texas Baptist 78 vs. Mississippi College 71 (76 poss.)
Let's go 'Nados!