MBB: University Athletic Association

Started by Allen M. Karon, February 21, 2005, 08:19:26 PM

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deiscanton

#6945
Finals of Midwest games-- Home team listed first

Wash U 79, Rochester 61

UChicago 70, Emory 77

deiscanton

Reviewing the results from tonight.  First, we review what the score predictions of all 4 UAA games were going into this evening.  Then, the actual results.

Quote from: deiscanton on February 03, 2023, 01:51:13 AM
Friday, February 3, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at Wash U

Wash U 70, Rochester 66

Wash U has a 65% chance to win this game, and is a -4.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 136.5

2.)  Emory at UChicago

UChicago 68, Emory 73

UChicago has a 30% chance to win this game, and is a +5.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 141.0

3.)  Brandeis at Case Western Reserve

CWRU 79, Brandeis 72

CWRU has a 73% chance to win this game, and is a -6.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team

O/U total is 151.5

4.)  NYU at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 74, NYU 78

Carnegie Mellon has a 37% chance to win this game, and is a +3.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 75 possessions per team

O/U total is 152.0

Here are the actual results from this evening:

1.)  Rochester at Wash U

Wash U 79, Rochester 61-- Wash U easily covers the -4.5 point home favorite spread.

Wash U had approx 71 possessions in the win-- Game tempo a little quicker than predicted.

Game total is 140-- Over wins that one.

2.)  Emory at UChicago

UChicago 70, Emory 77--  UChicago does not cover the home underdog spread-- Emory covers as road favorite.

Emory had approx 71 possessions in the win-- Game tempo about as predicted.

Game total is 147-- Over wins that one.

3.)  Brandeis at CWRU

CWRU 101, Brandeis 73-- CWRU easily covers the home favorite spread.

CWRU had approx 71 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was as predicted.

Game total is 174-- Over wins that one.

4.)  NYU at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 80, NYU 62-- Home underdog wins outright.

Carnegie Mellon had approx 74 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was as predicted.

Game total is 142-- Under wins that one.

deiscanton

Sunday, February 5, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at UChicago

UChicago 65, Rochester 69

UChicago has a 36% chance to win this game, and is a +4.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 135.0

2.)  Emory at Wash U

Wash U 74, Emory 69

Wash U has a 66% chance to win this game, and is a -4.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 143.5

3.)  NYU at Case Western Reserve

CWRU 83, NYU 82

CWRU has a 55% chance to win this game, and is a -1.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 165.5

4.)  Brandeis at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 73, Brandeis 67

Carnegie Mellon has a 70% chance to win this game, and is a -6.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.0

deiscanton

#6948
Halftime of Noon Eastern tips--

Home team listed first--

Case Western Reserve 50, NYU 48

Carnegie Mellon 38, Brandeis 25

deiscanton

#6949
Halftime of Midwest games-- Home team listed first

UChicago 45, Rochester 30

Wash U 31, Emory 28


deiscanton

#6950
Game update from Cleveland--

Case Western Reserve 90, NYU 90 43 seconds left in regulation.

CWRU 94, NYU 92  8 seconds left in regulation.

deiscanton

#6951
Finals of noon Eastern tip games--  Home team listed first--

Case Western Reserve 96, NYU 92

Carnegie Mellon 78, Brandeis 73  (Final at 1:52 PM Eastern/12:52 PM Central)

deiscanton

Game update from Pittsburgh--

Carnegie Mellon 73, Brandeis 70   30.7 seconds left in regulation.

stlawus

#6953
Very real chance that Rochester misses out on pool C if they remain on their current trajectory.  2 extremely difficult games coming up @Case and CMU.  Home at NYU is no gimme and they still have to play Emory again. They got in with 8 losses last year and likely get in again with 8 losses this year, but any more than that and they should be out.

deiscanton

#6954
Finals from Midwest games-- Home team listed first

UChicago 88, Rochester 72

Wash U 60, Emory 59

Wash U takes sole possession of first place, with Emory, CWRU, and Carnegie Mellon in a 3 way tie for second 1 game back of Wash U in the standings.

Emory suffers their first road loss of the season.


deiscanton

Reviewing the results from today.   First, we review what the actual scoreline predictions were of all 4 UAA contests going into today.  Then, we will review the actual results.


Quote from: deiscanton on February 05, 2023, 03:11:36 AM
Sunday, February 5, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at UChicago

UChicago 65, Rochester 69

UChicago has a 36% chance to win this game, and is a +4.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 135.0

2.)  Emory at Wash U

Wash U 74, Emory 69

Wash U has a 66% chance to win this game, and is a -4.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 143.5

3.)  NYU at Case Western Reserve

CWRU 83, NYU 82

CWRU has a 55% chance to win this game, and is a -1.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 165.5

4.)  Brandeis at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 73, Brandeis 67

Carnegie Mellon has a 70% chance to win this game, and is a -6.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.0

Here are the actual results from today-- Home team listed first.

1.)  UChicago 88, Rochester 72-- Home underdog won outright.

UChicago had approx 70 possessions in the win-- Game tempo is a little quicker than predicted.

Game total was 160-- Over wins that one.

2.)  Wash U 60, Emory 59-- Wash U does not cover the -4.5 point home favorite spread.

Wash U had approx 65 possessions in the win-- Game tempo is slower than predicted.

Game total was 119-- Under wins that one.

3.)  CWRU 96, NYU 92-- CWRU covers the -1.5 point home favorite spread.

CWRU had approx 67 possessions in the win-- Game tempo is slower than predicted.

Game total was 188-- Over wins that one.

4.)  Carnegie Mellon 78, Brandeis 73-- Carnegie Mellon does not cover the -6.0 point home favorite spread.

Carnegie Mellon had approx 70 possessions in the win-- however 20 of them were in the form of 44 FTAs.

Game total was 151-- Over wins that one.

blue_jays

UChicago played its best game of the season today, while Rochester is reeling and looked nothing like a nationally-ranked team. The Maroons had been playing close with everyone in the conference and should have won both games last weekend, frankly. Everything came together today and the hosts were in control throughout. Seems like WashU should be favored to win the league.

WUPHF

#6957
Chicago is definitely overachieving relative to expectations, despite the 2-7 record.  They graduated three senior starters from last season and with McGrath going out...

If I was an athletic director looking for a head coach, Bryan Joel would definitely be on my radar.

Rochester is underachieving relative to expectations.  I had them as the favorite in my pre-season ranking but did not feel good about that choice.  The coaches had them as No. 1 as well so...
_______________

Washington University is the clear favorite in my opinion, given the schedule, but obviously Emory, Carnegie Mellon, and Case Western Reserve are going to have something to say about that.  Every team in contention is sure to take at least one more loss. For Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve, that is a given.

WUPHF

#6958
Quote from: deiscanton on February 05, 2023, 06:08:42 PM
Reviewing the results from today.   First, we review what the actual scoreline predictions were of all 4 UAA contests going into today.  Then, we will review the actual results.

I appreciate the posts @deiscanton, but I am not sure what to with these to be honest.  Possessions and gambling lines and such. 

I rather hear your predictions for all-Association honors to be honest.  I think we have a few locks and a few strong contenders and maybe a few bubble-ins for the first and second teams.

Player of the year is going to go to a graduating senior or graduate student, I think.

deiscanton

Quote from: WUPHF on February 06, 2023, 09:13:45 AM
Quote from: deiscanton on February 05, 2023, 06:08:42 PM
Reviewing the results from today.   First, we review what the actual scoreline predictions were of all 4 UAA contests going into today.  Then, we will review the actual results.

I appreciate the posts @deiscanton, but I am not sure what to with these to be honest.  Possessions and gambling lines and such. 

I rather hear your predictions for all-Association honors to be honest.  I think we have a few locks and a few strong contenders and maybe a few bubble-ins for the first and second teams.

Player of the year is going to go to a graduating senior or graduate student, I think.

First of all, to start on looking through candidates for predictions for all-Association honors, the freshmen and sophomores in this league have made a bigger impact in the UAA this season than would normally be expected, IMO.  In most years, the first team all UAA would be an all senior and grad student team, but Benjamin Pearce of Emory has made such a huge scoring impact for the Eagles along with their other rookie star Jair Knight that it would be tough to imagine where Emory would be right now if these two players were not playing this season.

On the Wash U Bears, you have rookies Yogi Oliff and Will Grudzinski play significant minutes and make significant contributions in Wash U's run for a UAA title.  Sophomore Hayden Doyle is another good candidate for all UAA honors as well.

On the Brandeis Judges, Ethan Edwards was probably on his way to at least an Honorable Mention for second team all UAA before injury eliminated him for the season in UAA matchround 6 in Waltham vs CWRU.  Edwards will not be able to meet his 60% of UAA games playing requirement as a result.  Sophomore Toby Harris is a candidate for all UAA honors due to his scoring

At CWRU, you have locks or near-locks for first and second team all UAA honors in Mitch Prendergast, Cole Frilling, Danny Frauenheim, and Josh Levy, IMO. 

Not far behind at CMU, we have RJ Holmes, Josh Berry, Jack Stone, Nick Nakasian, Kevin Sax, and Sean Oberman competing for all UAA honors.  The CMU player who has had the most influence the past 2 seasons in defeating the Judges IMO is Jack Stone.  Top scorer in both games vs Brandeis last year, plus this year, Jack Stone hits the winning basket at Brandeis.

At Rochester, Ross Gang and Ryan Algier are definitely candidates for all UAA honors.

At NYU-- Spencer Freedman is playing well enough for a candidacy for all UAA honors.

Other candidates for all UAA honors at Emory include Mason Johnson, IMO.  He was influential in Emory's win over Brandeis this season.

For UChicago-- the Maroons do not get their 2 UAA wins this season without Bryce Hopkins in the lineup.

At Wash U, Charile Jacob has been the glue that binds the Bears together.  Not sure if Charlie Jacob wins POY if Wash U wins the UAA title and AQ, but he would be a good candidate to consider. 

Right now, for Rookie of the Year, I would still pick Benjamin Pearce of Emory for his huge impact on the overall performance of the Eagles this season.

I have not made a strong decision yet on Defensive POY and POY.

Any other players that I have missed so far? I haven't begun to put together who is first team, who is second team, and who misses out in the cut.   Usually, it is the top 7 players and ties that get first team, the next 7 players and ties that get second team, and Honorable Mention is any other player that could receive a vote for an all-Association team based on his performance this season.