FB: Region 4 fan poll

Started by DPU3619, September 09, 2011, 09:17:13 AM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2019, 02:19:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 01:57:31 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2019, 01:37:02 PM
2nd Rankings are out
https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2019/second-regional-ranking

Top 5 are the same as our poll with 6 and 7 flipped.

JCU ranked ahead of Hope and Aurora this week doesn't make a lot of criteria sense to me.  And if there was a time for North Central fans to get squirmy, this is it.  BW stays ranked and if JCU wins this week, they'll have a vRRO win.  North Central has a vRRO win this week thanks to WashU's standing last week, but won't have that when the rankings are finalized Saturday night.  Maybe the actual gap between NCC and JCU is essentially insurmountable (it should be, frankly), but if not, they've set the table here to do the unthinkable.
But if John Carroll wins, that will knock BW out of the rankings meaning they'd still be 0-1 vRRO wouldn't it?

No, BW is going to count for them no matter what.  The final rankings are going to have vRRO data from today's rankings AND the rankings submitted by the RACs Saturday night. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:22:16 PM
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 02:25:33 PM
Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:22:16 PM
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:26:56 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 02:25:33 PM
Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:22:16 PM
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

No, I don't. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 02:40:37 PM
Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:26:56 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 02:25:33 PM
Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:22:16 PM
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

No, I don't.

Well I can't wait to see the mock selections then and see how you are gonna engineer that scenario.

wally_wabash

It's probably worth pointing out that if John Carroll beating BW this weekend was a big enough deal to move JCU ahead of North Central, that's a thing that could happen whether JCU was ranked 4th today or 6th. Their data sheet is going to be the same at the end of Saturday regardless of where they got ranked today. 

It may be that the North RAC is viewing Hope's loss to Millikin and Aurora's loss to Hope as more damaging than John Carroll's loss to Mount Union.  Not a thing I agree with exactly, but it's not unheard for committees to go down the "worst loss" rabbit hole.  And if they are riding that particular wave, North Central is going to compare very favorably. 

I'm definitely not at all convinced that JCU is absolutely going to jump North Central if they win this weekend.  I don't view those two teams as being neck and neck. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 03:03:33 PM
It's probably worth pointing out that if John Carroll beating BW this weekend was a big enough deal to move JCU ahead of North Central, that's a thing that could happen whether JCU was ranked 4th today or 6th. Their data sheet is going to be the same at the end of Saturday regardless of where they got ranked today. 

It may be that the North RAC is viewing Hope's loss to Millikin and Aurora's loss to Hope as more damaging than John Carroll's loss to Mount Union.  Not a thing I agree with exactly, but it's not unheard for committees to go down the "worst loss" rabbit hole.  And if they are riding that particular wave, North Central is going to compare very favorably. 

I'm definitely not at all convinced that JCU is absolutely going to jump North Central if they win this weekend.  I don't view those two teams as being neck and neck.

Unfortunately your view/vote is about as relevant as mine!

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 02:40:37 PM
Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:26:56 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2019, 02:25:33 PM
Quote from: USee on November 13, 2019, 02:22:16 PM
Yes but that would still give them an SOS advantage over NCC (increase after BW, with NCC decrease v Millikin). I also think Wally said the RRO results for selection Sunday are a combination of this week and the final, hidden RR's? If that's the case, NCC is toast.

I do not think NCC is toast.  I still think North Central will be the first at-large candidate from this region, but today's rankings opened the door for an alternative.  My confidence on North Central as a Pool C has shifted from like 97% to 80%.

I am saying if NCC gets leapfrogged by JCU, then they are toast. Which I think is accurate don't you?

No, I don't. 
I'm not sure how... I see no way (without upsets knocking teams out) a NCC team 2nd on the board from the north gets in. First there's Wesley (1 loss, 2-1 RRO, .560 SOS), Redlands (1 loss, 1-1 RRO, ..596 SOS), and Wartburg (1 loss, 1-1 RRO, .576 SOS) who are all better than either north candidate. John Carroll might be 1-1 RRO but certainly not close in SOS even if the gap closes a bit. Then you have Susquehanna in the mix (1 loss, 0-1 RRO, .548 SOS) who's lone loss is in OT at unbeaten and South #2 Muhlenberg. A better loss than NCC's 14 point loss at north #2 and better SOS plus they'll have been at the table from the start. I think they'd be in before NCC.

This is why I think the adequate number of Pool C teams is around 9-10 (if time and money weren't a factor preventing expansion). I'd rather have a couple iffy teams get in (and if you're on the outside looking in at that point you don't have nearly as much of an argument of being left out) than a couple good teams get left out.
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FCGrizzliesGrad

Looks like there was a correction made. Hope is at #4 and John Carroll at #5.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

HScoach

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 13, 2019, 07:35:27 PM
Looks like there was a correction made. Hope is at #4 and John Carroll at #5.

Well, that sure changes things.
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thunderdog

#2800
I think today's action/results show why picking the bottom 4 spots for the NRFP has been so difficult all season. Olivet & Wabash both lose (unexpectedly). BW losses, but shows they still probably deserve a spot... maybe-ish?

FCGrizzliesGrad

#2801
Week 11

https://imgur.com/a/HNNwqyJ

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, CollegeGolf18, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, NCF,  smedindy, thunderdog, and wally wabash.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

smedindy

I had Albion at 10 instead of B-W. Coin flips...

HOPEful

Column 4 for me. Seven through ten I swapped the order, but otherwise pretty much in sinc with everyone else. I have Washington a bit higher out of respect for the CCIW and Hanover a smidge lower out of lack of respect for the HCAC...
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Captain_Joe08

I swear the IWU vote has become bizarre by the week.
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