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Jonny Utah

Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 02:18:43 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.

Regarding the NJAC, you need Wesley to pick up a 2nd loss and have Salisbury or Frostburg lose twice, without Montclair doing too much work or they'll end up 9-1. There's almost no way that happens.

As you put it, you simply have to beat RPI at home. The Bombers took their shot and missed. Too bad, because as you say, the defense can play with anyone, it appears.

Yea in terms of the NJAC, Ithaca's only hope is if the committee feels like the Brockport loss is better than any of the NJAC wins (meaning they take a 2 loss Ithaca over a 1 loss Salisbury).  Very doubtful that happens. 


Oline89

Hobart dominated every facet of the game this weekend against Rochester.  Although this made for a much more relaxed atmosphere in the stands, it really didn't help in figuring out if Hobart has finally turned the corner, and is ready to play with the big boys of the LL.  U of R has a lot of work to do, in order to become competitive in the league at this point.  For now Hobart still controls their own destiny, after next week we can start talking about tie breaking scenarios.  As with  every other team in football, the injuries are stacking up.  Having an extra week to rest up, and playing at home will give RPI a big time advantage.  Still, Hobart appears to be peaking at the right time of year.  Should be a brawl in Troy

Bombers798891

Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 02:24:39 PM
Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 02:18:43 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.

Regarding the NJAC, you need Wesley to pick up a 2nd loss and have Salisbury or Frostburg lose twice, without Montclair doing too much work or they'll end up 9-1. There's almost no way that happens.

As you put it, you simply have to beat RPI at home. The Bombers took their shot and missed. Too bad, because as you say, the defense can play with anyone, it appears.

Yea in terms of the NJAC, Ithaca's only hope is if the committee feels like the Brockport loss is better than any of the NJAC wins (meaning they take a 2 loss Ithaca over a 1 loss Salisbury).  Very doubtful that happens.

No hope. A 1-loss Salisbury doesn't just have one fewer loss than IC, they've also got a much better win.

IC also will not win a 3-way tie with Hobart and RPI at 4-1 in conference because the tiebreaker is winning percentage against teams above .500. RPI will have 1 such loss in this scenario, Hobart 3, and IC will have either two or three, depending on Cortaca. So either IC is eliminated right away, or Hobart is, with RPI eliminating then IC based on the H2H.

IC's only shot is to run the rest of the LL schedule, and hope that RPI loses to both Hobart and Union. Which, I guess could happen, but it's unlikely

Bartman

Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM
Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 01:28:26 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 11:04:42 AM

Ithaca's defensive scouting and execution of those plans are amazing to watch.  I've noticed some games, (last years Cortland, last and this year Union, this year Brockport) in particular where Ithaca seemed to know exactly what the other team was going to run.  Even against Brockport this year, IC seemed to have everything covered and only when Brockport had a little extra time to get guys open were they able to move the ball. 

Just a well coached defense

They also tackle extremely well. A fantastic defense all around. It is a shame they couldn't finish against RPI because I can't envision a scenario in which they even get a second's consideration for a Pool C. Maybe they win a three-way tiebreak with Hobart and RPI, though fewer things give me less joy than even trying to find that information on a website, much less figuring out the scenarios

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.
I think the LL is smoking crack if we think any LL team will get a Pool C out of the East. I know one thing , that everyone is rooting for Hobart to beat RPI this week , which will put many scenarios into play(unless Hobart beats IC in the last game and goes undefeated in the LL...hopeful , but seems a tall task). I am curious to see how Hobart does against the RPI defense. I am not sure if IC had their best game against RPI as IC's offense seemed a bit off that day, but maybe it was the RPI defense. The Bombers game against Union seemed to be their best effort, and when Hobart plays IC in November both teams should be peaking. The Hobart coaching staff showed nothing to RPI as we started our second string QB who can throw(surprised Rochester with 3 TDs) but is more of a wildcat threat, as we piled up 280 yards on the ground. I think our offense is ready for the battle with RPI ,as our WR's and TE's are very skilled and our line has matured very nicely this year and I think Hofmann has been the most consistent QB this year in the LL. Without Dakota Harvey, we are less of a run game threat but Haeffner has played vey well . The question is ,can the Hobart defense contain the RPI offense enough to keep the game within reach. IF Hobart can engineer an upset, I am most concerned with the Ithaca game as their performance against Union was impressive, and Hobart will no doubt be the underdog again. Well, one week at a time...predictions later in the week. It should be a great few weeks.
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
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Bartman

Congratulations to LL Players of the Week:

Offensive: Will Gladney, Ithaca, Bombers JR. WR surpasses all time receiving yards at IC in game against Union

Defensive: Pat Minogue, Ithaca, Bombers Sr./Capt. LB leads the way in shutout of Union

Rookie: Dante Kimbrough, RB , Hobart ran for 62 yards on 12 carries against Rochacha

Special Teams: Kyle Hackett(7th award in 2 years),  SO. K, Hobart goes 7-7(28-28 this year) on PATs and 3-3 on FG's(17-17 career) as one kick was 40 yards into a strong wind
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
Joe Namath

Bartman

#51006
Quote from: Bartman on October 11, 2018, 10:40:52 AM
OK, only 49 hours before more LL football. I think I am 23-5 this year, so here goes:

Hobart        45          Rochester           14         This could be closer if the Statesmen get large heads from last week's game. They need to show discipline and prepare for the
                                                                      the big chance to upset the Engineers next week

Ithaca         20          Union                 17         This will be another tight ,hard fought battle as Union goes out early 14-0 with two TD passes to Ross, but the Bombers D tightens

                                                                      up as Gladney ruins the Dutchmen's day and most likely season with a last minute TD catch and bruising run as time runs out.

RPI and the Saints players celebrate another undefeated LL week

The season moves on, and we have  the entire LL in action with three league games. Bartman is sitting at 25-5 on the season, here goes:


Hobart               26                   RPI                  24                 A  total dogfight, as Hobart moves the ball but has trouble in the redzone,needs 4 FGs from Hackett for the upset
                                                                                           Hobart defense does just enough to hold RPI to 24. Hobart must win as three way tie-breakers are against us.

Ithaca               52                   Rochester           3                 Yellow Jackets avoid the shutout.


Union               38                    St. Lawrence      21                The Saints put a scare in the Dutchmen early but the Saints have no answer for Ross Jr


If my Hobart-RPI prediction is correct, the LL looks to the Bombers-Statesmen game on 11/3 at the Boz to determine a clear Hobart 5-0 LL champ(assumes SLU win) or likely RPI (assuming no other upsets)as a 4-1 tie-breaker winner
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
Joe Namath

MRMIKESMITH

Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 02:24:39 PM
Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 02:18:43 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.

Regarding the NJAC, you need Wesley to pick up a 2nd loss and have Salisbury or Frostburg lose twice, without Montclair doing too much work or they'll end up 9-1. There's almost no way that happens.

As you put it, you simply have to beat RPI at home. The Bombers took their shot and missed. Too bad, because as you say, the defense can play with anyone, it appears.

Yea in terms of the NJAC, Ithaca's only hope is if the committee feels like the Brockport loss is better than any of the NJAC wins (meaning they take a 2 loss Ithaca over a 1 loss Salisbury).  Very doubtful that happens.

Salisbury SOS is horrible right now. Although it will improve as the weeks go on. However a Pool C Salisbury is not a lock by any means.

Jonny Utah

Quote from: MANDGSU on October 16, 2018, 10:46:48 AM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 02:24:39 PM
Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 02:18:43 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.

Regarding the NJAC, you need Wesley to pick up a 2nd loss and have Salisbury or Frostburg lose twice, without Montclair doing too much work or they'll end up 9-1. There's almost no way that happens.

As you put it, you simply have to beat RPI at home. The Bombers took their shot and missed. Too bad, because as you say, the defense can play with anyone, it appears.

Yea in terms of the NJAC, Ithaca's only hope is if the committee feels like the Brockport loss is better than any of the NJAC wins (meaning they take a 2 loss Ithaca over a 1 loss Salisbury).  Very doubtful that happens.

Salisbury SOS is horrible right now. Although it will improve as the weeks go on. However a Pool C Salisbury is not a lock by any means.

The NJAC could be highly overrated, but we really won't know until the playoffs, and even then we will have to judge an entire team (or conference) off of one game.  Wesleydad seems to have the best eyeball in terms of posters who actually watch the games on here, so I always take what he has to say to heart when he comments on games he watches.

MRMIKESMITH

Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 16, 2018, 10:52:15 AM
Quote from: MANDGSU on October 16, 2018, 10:46:48 AM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 02:24:39 PM
Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 02:18:43 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.

Regarding the NJAC, you need Wesley to pick up a 2nd loss and have Salisbury or Frostburg lose twice, without Montclair doing too much work or they'll end up 9-1. There's almost no way that happens.

As you put it, you simply have to beat RPI at home. The Bombers took their shot and missed. Too bad, because as you say, the defense can play with anyone, it appears.

Yea in terms of the NJAC, Ithaca's only hope is if the committee feels like the Brockport loss is better than any of the NJAC wins (meaning they take a 2 loss Ithaca over a 1 loss Salisbury).  Very doubtful that happens.

Salisbury SOS is horrible right now. Although it will improve as the weeks go on. However a Pool C Salisbury is not a lock by any means.

The NJAC could be highly overrated, but we really won't know until the playoffs, and even then we will have to judge an entire team (or conference) off of one game.  Wesleydad seems to have the best eyeball in terms of posters who actually watch the games on here, so I always take what he has to say to heart when he comments on games he watches.

I don't think they are overrated. I believe the two teams at the top are the real deal and the teams in the middle would be in the middle in any of the top conferences in the East or wherever.

Pat Coleman

Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 16, 2018, 10:52:15 AM
The NJAC could be highly overrated, but we really won't know until the playoffs, and even then we will have to judge an entire team (or conference) off of one game.  Wesleydad seems to have the best eyeball in terms of posters who actually watch the games on here, so I always take what he has to say to heart when he comments on games he watches.

... or two games, if two teams get in.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Machiavelli

Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 02:16:29 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 01:56:53 PM
Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 15, 2018, 01:28:26 PM
Quote from: Jonny Utah on October 15, 2018, 11:04:42 AM

Ithaca's defensive scouting and execution of those plans are amazing to watch.  I've noticed some games, (last years Cortland, last and this year Union, this year Brockport) in particular where Ithaca seemed to know exactly what the other team was going to run.  Even against Brockport this year, IC seemed to have everything covered and only when Brockport had a little extra time to get guys open were they able to move the ball. 

Just a well coached defense

They also tackle extremely well. A fantastic defense all around. It is a shame they couldn't finish against RPI because I can't envision a scenario in which they even get a second's consideration for a Pool C. Maybe they win a three-way tiebreak with Hobart and RPI, though fewer things give me less joy than even trying to find that information on a website, much less figuring out the scenarios

Well lets start with the pool C.  I assume St. Thomas has one locked up.  The one loss OAC team will probably get the other.  Can Salisbury pull off a win and knock an NJAC team out?  Hardin Simmons gets one probably, The WIAC looks all screwed up, The CCIW also looks messed up, and then you have the NWC and possibly the LL.  So out of the 8 conferences above, Ithaca is probably on the outside looking in with 2 losses.

It is what it is I guess.  You need to beat RPI at home.  Can't complain about anything if you don't make it this year.  Although the WIAC and CCIW could have a few 2 or 3 loss teams, and that might help Ithaca out if they run the table.  Not sure if they take Ithaca over Wesley if SU can run the table.

After looking again at national pool C teams, it may be even worse for Ithaca than I first thought.  It is possible for the MIAC, OAC and even WIAC/CCIW to have two (or even three) one loss teams in second place.  That makes it even harder for a team like Ithaca to get a shot.

What's crazy here is at the end of the year, if Brockport and RPI(and Ithaca) all win out, Ithaca will have lost to <end of the year guess> the #3 team in the country by 6, and <end of the year guess> #15 team in the country by 1, while beating <end of the year guess> 8-2 Alfred and <end of the year guess> 8-2 Cortland with additional quality wins over Hobart and Union. At the VERY least, i'd say Ithaca will have a really good argument if the NCAA committee looks beyond records only.

Maybe a 9-1 W. Conn or MMA will get in over them.

Bombers798891

Quote from: Machiavelli on October 16, 2018, 04:33:34 PM

What's crazy here is at the end of the year, if Brockport and RPI(and Ithaca) all win out, Ithaca will have lost to <end of the year guess> the #3 team in the country by 6, and <end of the year guess> #15 team in the country by 1, while beating <end of the year guess> 8-2 Alfred and <end of the year guess> 8-2 Cortland with additional quality wins over Hobart and Union. At the VERY least, i'd say Ithaca will have a really good argument if the NCAA committee looks beyond records only.

Maybe a 9-1 W. Conn or MMA will get in over them.


The thing is, we've seen a lot of talk on the ERFP about how these NE teams aren't that good, relative to NY teams.

Here are the wins for a 7-3 Cortland (They still have Brockport to lose to as well): Fitchburg and Framingham. Utica and Morrisville (3-3), Hartwick (2-4), Buff State (1-5), Fisher (1-4)

Here are the wins for a 6-3 Union: Husson, Coast Guard, Springfield, Curry. St. Lawrence (who would be locked in at 2-7 in your scenario based on the fact that they're losing to IC, Union, and RPI. They've also got to play Hobart, so they're probably 2-8). And Rochester, who is certainly going 1-9.

So, if these NE teams are a step or two below the NY teams, I'm not sure how we can frame Cortland, Hobart, and Union as all that good. Because to me, it looks like Cortland and Union beat up on NE teams and the lousy teams in their conference, and then lost to every good team they played. Hobart, meanwhile, lost to one of those supposedly inferior NE teams

This trio might be decent, but at the end of the day, I wouldn't hang a playoff resume on beating them.

I'd love nothing more to see this IC defense in the playoffs to pull off a 17-13 upset of a few teams. But the wins just aren't that impressive to me

Machiavelli

Quote from: Bombers798891 on October 16, 2018, 05:05:24 PM
Quote from: Machiavelli on October 16, 2018, 04:33:34 PM

What's crazy here is at the end of the year, if Brockport and RPI(and Ithaca) all win out, Ithaca will have lost to <end of the year guess> the #3 team in the country by 6, and <end of the year guess> #15 team in the country by 1, while beating <end of the year guess> 8-2 Alfred and <end of the year guess> 8-2 Cortland with additional quality wins over Hobart and Union. At the VERY least, i'd say Ithaca will have a really good argument if the NCAA committee looks beyond records only.

Maybe a 9-1 W. Conn or MMA will get in over them.


The thing is, we've seen a lot of talk on the ERFP about how these NE teams aren't that good, relative to NY teams.

Here are the wins for a 7-3 Cortland (They still have Brockport to lose to as well): Fitchburg and Framingham. Utica and Morrisville (3-3), Hartwick (2-4), Buff State (1-5), Fisher (1-4)

Here are the wins for a 6-3 Union: Husson, Coast Guard, Springfield, Curry. St. Lawrence (who would be locked in at 2-7 in your scenario based on the fact that they're losing to IC, Union, and RPI. They've also got to play Hobart, so they're probably 2-8). And Rochester, who is certainly going 1-9.

So, if these NE teams are a step or two below the NY teams, I'm not sure how we can frame Cortland, Hobart, and Union as all that good. Because to me, it looks like Cortland and Union beat up on NE teams and the lousy teams in their conference, and then lost to every good team they played. Hobart, meanwhile, lost to one of those supposedly inferior NE teams

This trio might be decent, but at the end of the day, I wouldn't hang a playoff resume on beating them.

I'd love nothing more to see this IC defense in the playoffs to pull off a 17-13 upset of a few teams. But the wins just aren't that impressive to me

Totally agree with you (and swung and missed on Cortland/Brockport, thought I accounted for it). I'm just saying Ithaca's losses are so darn close to a very much top tier team, and a 3rd tier team and the rest of the schedule is not absolute garbage, like some of the other leagues out there. I just think they would still have an argument, but you're right, they probably lack that signature 1-2 wins. Is it possible to get in with 2 signature losses? Probably not, but maybe?

Bartman

#51014
In analyzing the RPI Engineers for this weekend's game with the Statesmen, I can characterize the RPI team as doing whatever it takes to win. This is despite the fact that they were outgained by their opponent in every game except the the blowout against 1-5 Buffalo State. In fact , against the Bombers they lost the yardage battle 418-162(Ithaca , how did you lose at home with this yardage advantage?....IC seemed to wear lead shoes in the redzone). This RPI rubberband defense is tough in the redzone and has 13 INTs on the year( 8 total against Allegheny and WPI). Their run defense is strong with only 506 yards against them , but 1,306 given up in the air shows some vulnerability. This undefeated team has a total yardage disadvantage against opponents of -151 yards( 1661 v. 1812). Their kicking game is decent and return game is very good. So ,how did they win all their games with such mediocre stats except for the 13-2 INT advantage? It seems the offense has made plays at the critical times of the game  and a defense that is carrying this team with a "bend don't break" approach that toughens in the red zone and is always lurking to pick a pass off.
  I am actually less scared of this ranked team after reviewing the stats. Hobart not only has a chance , but I believe a good chance on Saturday. Turnovers will be the key to the game and Hobart's redzone offense. I think the Hobart passing game will get their yards and the run game, even without Harvey,has shown improvement as our young Oline keeps improving. I also think Hobart has a special weapon in Kyle Hackett , and if Hobart wins, Kyle will be the difference if Hobart sputters in the redone(Hobart is 21-21 in redzone scoring this year). The Hobart defense is vulnerable to even a methodical offense like RPI, but they have improved week by week , and hopefully are at the peak of their ability.
  So, I am saying ...we have a decent chance in Troy....the Hobart coaching staff seemed to grow up in the Union game, DeWall  can start to earn a reputation with a win against RPI this Saturday.  Go Bart
"I never graduated from Iowa, but I was only there for two terms - Truman's and Eisenhower's."
Alex Karras
"When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time."
Max McGee
"I love football. I really love football, As far as I'm concerned, it's the second best thing in the world".
Joe Namath