Pool C -- 2013

Started by Ralph Turner, October 18, 2013, 10:39:56 PM

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Ralph Turner

Time to start a new thread (and pull the Pool C talk off the Pool B board.)

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 18, 2013, 10:39:56 PM
Time to start a new thread (and pull the Pool C talk off the Pool B board.)

I've been thinking the same thing, but just never got around to starting the thread! ::)

ExTartanPlayer

A few early observations:

1) this is a rarity anyway, but there will likely be no Pool B teams that spill into Pool C as realistic playoff candidates. The last Pool C in is likely to have one or two losses as it is, and the "fourth" team in B is almost guaranteed to have two losses. The only way this gets funky is if Wesley's odd schedule bites them and somehow they are docked for the low number of D3 games.

2) with that out of the way: the east has already beaten itself up so much that I can't see hardly anyone getting to Pool C with just one loss (short of SJF or Hobart getting upset / if Salisbury beats SJF this week, they go into the E8 driver's seat and SJF becomes out first logical Pool C candidate from the East).

3) the MIAC has a mess on its hands. Several games played to sort this out yet but it's very plausible that their runner up will have two losses. A conference that usually produces a Pool C team that acquits itself well.

4) the CCIW and OAC look like good bets to produce a one loss runner up; each conference has three very good teams and no one that looks REALLY threatening to beat any of the top three, thus I expect each will produce a one loss runner up that will be a strong candidate. This is also likely with the two power teams in the NCAC (since Witt's loss to Butler doesn't count, although we have previously noted that it must be somehow considered that Witt was demolished and Franklin nearly best Butler the next week).

5) the NWC had a number of key games coming up, but Pacific, Willamette, and (most likely) Pacific Lutheran all stand a chance of coming to the table with one loss

6) the MWC could produce an interesting problem as a fairly weak conference with two teams undefeated in conference play that don't play one another. We are currently assuming that Illinois College will likely get the Pool A if they don't stumble, so St. Norbert is on the bubble (but given their lopsided loss to John Carroll, I expect they would be placed behind other quality 1-loss Pool C teams).

7) the WIAC has three highly-ranked teams that have to start playing one another so we can figure out who is best and if anyone's getting through with 1 loss into Pool C.

8) I made a prediction that at least one Pool C team will have two losses, even with the low number of slots available. I stand by that - so many games to be played yet, I don't think that we'll have more than a couple of highly-ranked runners-up with only one loss.


Sorry I went back and forth between east, west, north regions there. But this could start some conversation :)
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

D3MAFAN

#3
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 19, 2013, 08:18:46 AM
A few early observations:

1) this is a rarity anyway, but there will likely be no Pool B teams that spill into Pool C as realistic playoff candidates. The last Pool C in is likely to have one or two losses as it is, and the "fourth" team in B is almost guaranteed to have two losses. The only way this gets funky is if Wesley's odd schedule bites them and somehow they are docked for the low number of D3 games.

2) with that out of the way: the east has already beaten itself up so much that I can't see hardly anyone getting to Pool C with just one loss (short of SJF or Hobart getting upset / if Salisbury beats SJF this week, they go into the E8 driver's seat and SJF becomes out first logical Pool C candidate from the East).

3) the MIAC has a mess on its hands. Several games played to sort this out yet but it's very plausible that their runner up will have two losses. A conference that usually produces a Pool C team that acquits itself well.

4) the CCIW and OAC look like good bets to produce a one loss runner up; each conference has three very good teams and no one that looks REALLY threatening to beat any of the top three, thus I expect each will produce a one loss runner up that will be a strong candidate. This is also likely with the two power teams in the NCAC (since Witt's loss to Butler doesn't count, although we have previously noted that it must be somehow considered that Witt was demolished and Franklin nearly best Butler the next week).

5) the NWC had a number of key games coming up, but Pacific, Willamette, and (most likely) Pacific Lutheran all stand a chance of coming to the table with one loss

6) the MWC could produce an interesting problem as a fairly weak conference with two teams undefeated in conference play that don't play one another. We are currently assuming that Illinois College will likely get the Pool A if they don't stumble, so St. Norbert is on the bubble (but given their lopsided loss to John Carroll, I expect they would be placed behind other quality 1-loss Pool C teams).

7) the WIAC has three highly-ranked teams that have to start playing one another so we can figure out who is best and if anyone's getting through with 1 loss into Pool C.

8) I made a prediction that at least one Pool C team will have two losses, even with the low number of slots available. I stand by that - so many games to be played yet, I don't think that we'll have more than a couple of highly-ranked runners-up with only one loss.


Sorry I went back and forth between east, west, north regions there. But this could start some conversation :)

I think you can add the USA South to this conversation, they have a weird situation down there with so many teams fighting for the #1 spot, not sure how that is going to turn out, but you could easily see both CNU and Huntingdon win out with Huntingdon winning the conference championship and CNU having quality wins against two possible conference champions. Also, you have to look at the Centenial Conference with Johns Hopkins and Ursinus.

Edited to take out Ursinus.

wally_wabash

Scratch Huntingdon. The at-large game is cruel.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

D3MAFAN


ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: D3MAFAN on October 19, 2013, 10:32:38 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 19, 2013, 10:01:38 PM
Scratch Huntingdon. The at-large game is cruel.

Very Cruel!

Maryville's win over Christopher Newport basically rules out a Pool C from the USA South. Huntingdon could still win their way in as a Pool A with a win over now-leader Maryville in the finale, but I think we can rule out a 2-loss USAC team, even CNU with a quality OOC win, as a Pool C.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

D3MAFAN

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 20, 2013, 07:41:54 AM
Quote from: D3MAFAN on October 19, 2013, 10:32:38 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 19, 2013, 10:01:38 PM
Scratch Huntingdon. The at-large game is cruel.

Very Cruel!

Maryville's win over Christopher Newport basically rules out a Pool C from the USA South. Huntingdon could still win their way in as a Pool A with a win over now-leader Maryville in the finale, but I think we can rule out a 2-loss USAC team, even CNU with a quality OOC win, as a Pool C.

They would need a lot of help from the West and North Region, which may end up imploding over the next few weeks, the East has already imploded. However, their is an outside chance. However, Maryville lost to E&H doesn't help now and Huntingdon close loss to Wesley doesn't help right now since the Wesley loss yesterday.

smedindy

Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.

wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 20, 2013, 01:48:38 PM
Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.

They are all "regional" games this year.  All D3 games get counted in the SOS math so long as you play a certain percentage of your games in region (I think it's 75%).

Either way, the winner of JCU/HBerg is about as close to lock status as anybody will get in this year's pool C. As long as the don't lose again to a not-UMU team.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Please refresh my memory... Do we have this allocation?

Pool A 24
Pool B 3
Pool C 5

wally_wabash

I think that's what we have this year, Ralph.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

jknezek

Pat said that was the math breakdown, but last I heard the book wasn't out, so it wasn't completely a given.

HScoach

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 20, 2013, 02:47:10 PM
Quote from: smedindy on October 20, 2013, 01:48:38 PM
Fans of other pool "C" teams probably need Heidelberg to beat John Carroll. JCU's non-conference win over St. Norbert has to help them more than 'Berg's dismantling of Alma, even if the JCU win was non-region.

They are all "regional" games this year.  All D3 games get counted in the SOS math so long as you play a certain percentage of your games in region (I think it's 75%).

Either way, the winner of JCU/HBerg is about as close to lock status as anybody will get in this year's pool C. As long as the don't lose again to a not-UMU team.

The OAC isn't the lock that it's been for the last 20 years.   Any of the 3 could win it.    And all 3 finishing 9-1 is a distinct possibility.    H'Berg might have the toughest route to 10-0 as they play at JCU the week after hosting Mount.   Going to tough for Berg to rise again the  next week.  Especially if they beat Mount.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Ralph Turner

#14
Quote from: jknezek on October 20, 2013, 03:21:42 PM
Pat said that was the math breakdown, but last I heard the book wasn't out, so it wasn't completely a given.
Ground Hog Day in October?

I think that we will get one from the East, one from the South, and three from the North and West.

The South looks like 3 teams unless someone from the MASCAC breaks thru.