Pool C -- 2013

Started by Ralph Turner, October 18, 2013, 10:39:56 PM

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02 Warhawk

Quote from: TitanPride on November 04, 2013, 08:57:19 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 05:20:15 PM
My take:

Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)

You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).

How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.

Hazzben -- what's the logic for putting Platteville above IC?  Platteville has a loss and a lower SOS.  Do you think a result against regionally ranked outweighs those two factors?

Agreed, as it stands today, I would think IC is regionally ranked. Of course that could change if Platteville can beat Oshkosh in the final week of the season

hazzben

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 08:23:25 AM
Quote from: TitanPride on November 04, 2013, 08:57:19 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 04, 2013, 05:20:15 PM
My take:

Bethel (8-0) RRO: 2-0 or 3-0 (see bottom three)
UW-Whitewater (7-0) RRO: 2-0
Linfield (8-0) RRO: 1-0
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) RRO: 2-1
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1) RRO: 0/1-1 (see bottom three)
UW-Oshkosh (6-1) RRO: 0-1
Pacific (6-1) RRO: 0-1
UW-Plattevielle (7-1) RRO: 0-1
Redlands (5-2) RRO: 0-2
UST/Wartburg/SJU (2 losses each)

You could make the argument for IC, but their SOS is 185. Wartburg and UST have almost identical SOS numbers, but UST could be credited with playing Bethel tougher, more recently. SJU could also be swapped in for either Wartburg or UST (who they hold the H2H over).

How the bottom 3-4 slots play out will determine who gets top billing between Bethel, UWW and Linfield. Bethel and UWW have nearly identical SOS numbers and will have very similar results vs. RRO. Linfield's SOS numbers a notch lower, with weaker RRO results. Given this, as Pat and Keith acknowledge on the podcast, the committee could look at UWW and Bethel as dead even, in which case last years playoff results become relevant. Strange that Bethel could get the nod in this case. Makes Buff St. hurt all over again.

Hazzben -- what's the logic for putting Platteville above IC?  Platteville has a loss and a lower SOS.  Do you think a result against regionally ranked outweighs those two factors?

Agreed, as it stands today, I would think IC is regionally ranked. Of course that could change if Platteville can beat Oshkosh in the final week of the season

UWP gets no help from their SOS. But their only loss is to a team in the thick of things for the West 1 slot. You can definitely make the case for IC. And the criteria is tilted in their favor. The big knock will be, who have they played. In my ranking, I'm making allowance that there is going to be some subjective bias on the committee when it comes to comparing the WIAC and MWC. I'm not saying whether their should/shouldn't be, but predicting their will be.

But to both your points, IC could certainly make it in on the criteria. Again, what they do with the bottom 4ish slots will have a significant impact on who is #1...at least for week 1. 

Bob.Gregg

Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AM

... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Isn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

02 Warhawk

#108
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AM

... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Isn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?

Sure, but not everybody is undefeated like IC

D3MAFAN

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 11:39:09 AM
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AM

... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Isn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?

Sure, but not eveybody is undefeatd like IC

Undebeaten ;)

Ralph Turner


Pat Coleman

Quote from: D3MAFAN on November 05, 2013, 07:27:51 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 05, 2013, 11:39:09 AM
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2013, 11:35:37 AM
Quote from: hazzben on November 05, 2013, 11:06:56 AM

... IC could certainly make it in on the criteria.
Isn't that the basis for EVERYBODY to make it, or not?

Sure, but not eveybody is undefeatd like IC

Undebeaten ;)

Thank you. :)
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Pat Coleman

Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

wally_wabash

Alright then.  Good stuff in the RRs.  Here's how I see the field this week, starting with Pool A:


   League   
  Team
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   North Central   
   ECFC   
   Gallaudet   
   E8   
   Alfred   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Wartburg   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MAC   
   Lebanon Valley   
   MIAC   
   Bethel   
   MWC   
   Illinois College   
   MIAA   
   Albion   
   NACC   
   Concordia (Wis.)   
   NCAC   
   Wabash   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Hampden-Sydney   
   PAC   
   Washington & Jefferson   
   SCIAC   
   Redlands   
   UMAC   
   Greenville   
   USAC   
   Maryville   
   WIAC   
   UW-Whitewater   

Just two changes here this week.  The E8 stays weird so Salisbury is out, Alfred is in.  Looking at the top of that league, Salisbury can force a two-way tie with Alfred with a win over Ithaca on Saturday, but Alfred beat Salisbury so there's that.  Alfred also has a game left with SJF which can't be overlooked.  And in the still crazy ODAC, Hampden-Sydney is back in after they blasted Guilford last week. 

Pool B:

Eeeenteresting stuff in the Regional Rankings.  The south picking the order of TLU, Wesley, Millsaps is a major surprise (see what I did there).  Now, we get to something that I'm not clear about since we haven't had multiple Pool Bs since I started breaking this down this way.  Do they take the top "B" team from each region and discuss as they do with the Cs?  If so, we can just ignore the North and West because there aren't ranked or viable candidates out there.  So we're looking first at TLU and Framingham.  Undefeated TLU wins.  Next up is Wesley and Framingham.  Now this is where it is interesting...does the national committee see Wesley's SOS and 0-2 record vs. RROs as better than Framingham State's 8-1 record, respectable SOS, and 0-1 vs. RROs?  Interestingly they have a common opponent- Rowan.  There are a lot of ways one could parse that whole thing out.  Here today I'm going to give Wesley the nod (and it's a no brainer if Salisbury beats Ithaca this week and winds up in the rankings next week).  So then we have Millsaps and Framingham State.  I'm picking Millsaps and their undefeated record again.  So my Bs are, in order:

TLU (7-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, .438 SOS)
Wesley (4-2, 0-2 vs. RROs, .688 SOS)
Millsaps (7-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, .484 SOS)


Pool C:

Some quick notes about each region here and how/why I've ordered teams the way I did. 
North: Even though the rankings right now have Wabash/Witt ahead of JCU and IWU, I'm going to apply the assumption here that the loser of Witt/Wabash will fall below JCU and IWU in the rankings.  IWU has a win over an RRO, which the Witt/Wabash loser will not.  JCU will be in the same boat should they finish with one loss.  So the NCAC runner up goes behind these two in the North region for me...just a little correction factor there. 
South: Taken as is.
East: I'm projecting Alfred in as the E8 AQ which leaves Ithaca out there in Pool C and at the top of the board.  But if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, Ithaca is either going to win the E8 or lose again and be shuffled behind FSU.  Either way, they are out of FSU's way and FSU is at the top of the east board. 
West: Taken as is- however if/when it gets down to Platteville, I'm skipping Platteville because it's going to be either Oshkosh or Platteville in play here and not both. 

And with that, here we go:
Round 1:
John Carroll 8-0, 0.463 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs
Thomas More 7-1, .470 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Framingham State 7-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
UW-Oskhosh 6-1, .481 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs

Oshkosh is the selection.  Framingham has a better SOS per the math, but Oshkosh has the stronger result vs. a ranked opponent.  I don't think anybody would be surprised if Oshkosh were the first selection here. 

Round 2:
John Carroll 8-0, 0.463 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs
Thomas More 7-1, .470 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Framingham State 7-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Concordia-Moorhead, 6-1, .540 SOS, 1-1 vs. RROs

The Cobbers are a pretty easy choice here (keeping in mind that John Carroll is going to be carrying a loss if they are part of this hypothetical).  Big ol' SOS and a quality win, which the others don't have (in fairness, JCU would also have to have said win to be on this board so early...C-M's SOS wins the day). 

Round 3:
John Carroll 8-0, 0.463 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs
Thomas More 7-1, .470 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Framingham State 7-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Pacific Lutheran 7-1, .561 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs

Going with the Streaks here on the assumption that they'll have a win vs. an RRO.  Somewhat surprisingly, Pacific didn't get ranked which keeps PLU from having a quality win and gets them passed over here.

Round 4:
Illinois Wesleyan 7-1, .510 SOS, 2-1 vs. RROs
Thomas More 7-1, .470 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Framingham State 7-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Pacific Lutheran 7-1, .561 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs

Truth time- when I started I forgot to count Hope as an RRO win for IWU...probably should have ordered IWU ahead of JCU when I self-corrected at the start, but I think we get to the same place at this point anyway.  And with that out of the way, it's hard to see IWU with just one loss, a respectable SOS and 2 quality wins getting passed over at this point.  IWU might be the only at-large team to have 2 wins vs. RROs when it's all over with. 

Round 5:
Wittenberg 7-0, .509 SOS, 0-0 vs. RROs
Thomas More 7-1, .470 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Framingham State 7-1, .568 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs
Pacific Lutheran 7-1, .561 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs

So here I think the call is between PLU and FSU.  Does an intelligent committee have an intelligent discussion and come away with a rock solid belief that Framingham State is better than PLU?  I honestly can't see that happening.  So PLU is the last team in....this week. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

d-train

#114
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan.  Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will get ranked too).  No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan.  Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will too).  No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...

Yup - any Pool C hopefuls need the OAC and CCIW to become clean 10-0/9-1/8-2 splits, methinks.  I also wonder if it would help the rest of Pool C if Framingham gets in through Pool B along with TLU and Millsaps; not sure whether you prefer being on the board against 9-1 Framingham with a possible win over RRO (if Endicott wins out, see Pool B board) or Wesley who HAS played a very difficult schedule but doesn't have any wins vs. RRO, but I think Wesley's resume looks a little thinner than Framingham's for the Pool C folks.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wesleydad

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 03:38:11 PM
Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan.  Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will too).  No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...

Yup - any Pool C hopefuls need the OAC and CCIW to become clean 10-0/9-1/8-2 splits, methinks.  I also wonder if it would help the rest of Pool C if Framingham gets in through Pool B along with TLU and Millsaps; not sure whether you prefer being on the board against 9-1 Framingham with a possible win over RRO (if Endicott wins out, see Pool B board) or Wesley who HAS played a very difficult schedule but doesn't have any wins vs. RRO, but I think Wesley's resume looks a little thinner than Framingham's for the Pool C folks.

ex tartan, playing hypotheticals here.  if salisbury beats ithaca and huntingdon wins this week, both could end up ranked and wesley then has 2 wins against regionally ranked teams.  if that occurs they are a strong B likely pushing framingham into the C pool.

smedindy

If Millsaps, behind in RRs, is left out of "B" and they fall to "C", they probably take a spot away as they'll be the first pick from the South and unbeaten. So the "C" fringes may wish that Millsaps does get a "B".

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: wesleydad on November 06, 2013, 04:23:50 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 03:38:11 PM
Quote from: d-train on November 06, 2013, 03:31:59 PM
Yikes! Too close for my tastes as a PLU fan.  Guess I'm pulling for the Tommies to beat the Cobbers, and for Pacific to beat Willamette and get regionally ranked (hopefully Redlands will too).  No interest in an OAC or CCIW three-way tie, thank you very much...

Yup - any Pool C hopefuls need the OAC and CCIW to become clean 10-0/9-1/8-2 splits, methinks.  I also wonder if it would help the rest of Pool C if Framingham gets in through Pool B along with TLU and Millsaps; not sure whether you prefer being on the board against 9-1 Framingham with a possible win over RRO (if Endicott wins out, see Pool B board) or Wesley who HAS played a very difficult schedule but doesn't have any wins vs. RRO, but I think Wesley's resume looks a little thinner than Framingham's for the Pool C folks.

ex tartan, playing hypotheticals here.  if salisbury beats ithaca and huntingdon wins this week, both could end up ranked and wesley then has 2 wins against regionally ranked teams.  if that occurs they are a strong B likely pushing framingham into the C pool.

Good points - did not look deep into every team's schedule.  If Huntingdon wins out (which would mean beating current South #7 Maryville) that would probably sneak them into the final South RR's.  That game isn't for two weeks, though.

The East rankings are all KINDS of wacky right now and, as crazy as it sounds, I don't know if Salisbury gets ranked even with a win over current #2 Ithaca.  You certainly can argue that they SHOULD be there but with three losses (no matter how good those losses are), I wouldn't necessarily count on that.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

desertcat1

Nice job Wally :)  +k from "the serial smiter himself"   :-*
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith