Author Topic: NESCAC  (Read 568626 times)

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5010 on: October 11, 2017, 09:07:51 pm »
Trinity defeats Wesleyan 2-1. Wesleyan is now alone in the Nescac basement YET AGAIN as they finished in last place in 2016. Very good effort tonight by Trinity as  they showed they will not go away quietly. They still would have to win their last 2 games at Midd and v Amherst to have any chance but well done. For Wesleyan that was a disappointing effort and again they should have been attacking all game with numbers not just in the final 10 minutes down a goal. They have Williams, Conn and Amherst left on their schedule and it is looking pretty bleak right now for them.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5011 on: October 11, 2017, 09:11:50 pm »
On to Lewiston now. Bates and Thomas 0-0 5 minutes into the 2nd Half.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5012 on: October 11, 2017, 09:25:57 pm »
Bates all over Thomas but as usual cannot finish. Thomas GK having some game from what I have seen...3 great saves in 10 minutes. Live Stats show this GK has come off the bench 2nd Half. Also, Bates has subbed GK's as well but I am guessing Flaherty is givng the backup a run.

Online Ommadawn

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5013 on: October 11, 2017, 10:20:50 pm »
Bakken with the game winner for Bates with 21 seconds left in 2OT.

Offline blooter442

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5014 on: October 11, 2017, 10:42:06 pm »
Bakken with the game winner for Bates with 21 seconds left in 2OT.

Just saw the video (NSN still has it up). Really nice run by Merchant down the left to set it up -- tough to have those kind of wheels that late in the game, but he did it.

Online Ommadawn

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5015 on: October 11, 2017, 10:45:42 pm »
Thomas had a few players who looked pretty frisky in a second overtime, too, but Bakken's nice finish provided a just result.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5016 on: October 11, 2017, 11:35:42 pm »
Nice win for Bates. Deserved win but man that Thomas GK plgayed out of his mind 2nd Half

Offline cac.aholic1

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5017 on: October 12, 2017, 12:40:17 am »
As far as Bowdoin if you think they finish 2-1-1 against Colby, Hamilton, Conn and Tufts I could not disagree more. Who and how will they score against any 4 of those teams. They are all very stingy on a good day and Bowdoin on a great day will score maybe 1 goal..Like I said Bowdoin and Williams and all of Nescac is so unpredictable this year that we will just have to watch the games to see what happens.

I agree Bowdoin has had trouble creating and scoring since Wercinski took over. But this year I think they're slightly better than in previous years.

Moreover, I think one of the best predictors of NESCAC results is past games between the two teams. IMHO certain matchups due to style of coaching and recruiting tendencies and in some cases psychological factors/rivalries, games from year to year can tend to be very similar in terms of result, or even if the result isn't the same the performances mostly are.

So lets go to the past 3 years' stats to see how Bowdoin did offensively against these teams:

Colby: Struggles, 2-0 win, 0-0 draw, 0-1 loss
Hamilton: Lots of success, 2-1 win, 2-0 win, 3-1 win
Conn: Success, 1-1 draw, 2-1 win, 2-0 win, 2-0 win
Tufts: Mostly successful, 2-1 win, 2-1 win, 0-0 draw, 1-0 win, 2-2 draw

So against these teams in particular (except Colby), the Polar Bears have actually had a pretty great scoring record. In 10 games against Hamilton, Conn, and Tufts, they've been shut out once and scored 21 goals. I know its dumb to blindly base your future predictions on the past, but I do think there's something here.

I actually base my game predictions mostly on this when I see one team dominated the matchup. That's why I'll pick Bowdoin to win or at least draw against Tufts, to win against Conn, but probably to draw or maybe lose to Colby. It almost doesn't even matter what position teams are in the table because they tend to be pretty competitive regardless.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5018 on: October 12, 2017, 07:33:45 am »
Saturday

Trinity at Midd----Trinity looked like a Top 8 side last night against Wesleyan. They worked hard and easily were the better team. Midd is really struggling to score goals against solid competition and even weak competition. Their most dangerous and skilled player Goulart is scoring their goals and he is playing very well for them. Midd is also allowing a ton of goals this year which is concerning. Midd has Trinity, Bates and Williams left on their schedule. If they can win all 3 games they will get into the top 4. Trinity is still not very organized defensively but their GK Zabala played his best game last night. I think both teams can score in this game but Midd will score more. Midd 2-1

Hamilton at Bowdoin----Hamilton is starting to play well right now. Bowdoin has been dominant at Home. I am curious to see if Hamilton can play on the road like they have been playing at home. I do not agree with others that Bowdoin's CB's are the best in the league. Bubb and Ward can be beaten and dealt with by good strikers. Wood is playing like one of the best strikers in the league right now. Because of Bowdoin's style and system they are incredibly difficult to break down. Difficult but not impossible. Which team wants this more? This will be a very even game but I think Hamilton is playing a tad better. Hamilton 1-0

Amherst at Colby----This game will be a game of matchups. If Colby can beat Amherst they will get even with Amherst in points and own the tiebreaker. I cannot remember the last time Colby beat Amherst or frankly if they have beaten Amherst. Colby will be very pumped for this game especially at home.  Amherst has more weapons and more athleticism and I do not like the matchup of Colby's backs v Amherst strikers. However, Colby has had the whole week off and will be very prepared for this game. Amherst has not looked as good on the road as they do at home. 2 different teams. Colby can match Amherst all over the field except Amherst has more speed. I like speed. While Colby will be jacked for this game and will be confident they can win I think Amherst rolls into Waterville and rolls out with a W. Amherst 2-0

Tufts at Bates-----Bates with an exciting 109th minute win last night v Thomas. Tufts with an exciting 10-0 thrashing of Mt.St Vincent yesterday. Why did Shapiro play this game? Embarrassment. Those type of games can changes teams psyche sometimes. Look at the US smashing Panama and then "showing" up at T&T. I imagine Bates will sit in and try to counter. Tufts is the better and more talented side. Bates can be a tricky team to play as they lull you to sleep a but and then can attack with skill and speed with 4 solid attacking players. Tufts dominates possession and shots but struggle to finish. Tufts still find a way to get a Win. 1-0 Tufts

Williams at Wesleyan----I did not like the way Wesleyan approached that Trinity game last night. They needed a win and Wheeler sat in their normal formation and conservative style until the last 10 minutes of the game. Disappointing. They should have come out of the gates and attacked but that is not Wheeler's style. Williams defeated Coast Guard on Tuesday but were out played for most of the game. I will give Williams a pass as a 2 1/2 hr road mid-week game can be difficult to get up for. Both of these teams struggle to score goals. Sisco has 2 goals this year and is the starting striker but maybe his goal at Coast Guard gets him going. I think their most dangerous striker is the Soph Demian Gass who leads the team with 3 goals. That kid can take players on and beat them, has good speed and is composed enough to finish. He should be starting but he did not play at Coast Guard so maybe he is injured? Wesleyan is hanging by a thread and will have to go 2-0-1 against Williams, Amherst and Conn to get into the Nescac Play-offs to finish the season. Not gonna happen. Wesleyan has been a massive disappointment this year and they did not look particularly interested in playing last night until the last 10 minutes. Williams has to much to play for and are a much harder working team right now. Williams 2-1

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5019 on: October 12, 2017, 07:58:21 am »
Man, when you beat the two toughest opponents on your schedule via own-goals, it may just be your year ...

Actually it wasn't an own goal. Looks like a pretty good finish to me, from a tight angle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOuoeEKgbEE&feature=push-u&attr_tag=pu7wn4wM7yFzjQ7P-6


ACTUALLY That was an own goal. You can see Sommers tapped the cross into his own net. Like I said live it was a nice touch by Lind and great little ball to McMillian who did well to beat Sommers on the fly and feed the ball into the box intended for Lind to finish who made a nice run to get there but was a step slow and missed his chance to win the game himself. Complete loss of concentration by Conn defensively on that play. I have really been impressed by Conn's GK Marcucci this year but he was forced to charge out of his net to cut off the angle but IMO he came 2 steps to far and Bellow made him pay. Not Marcucci's fault but if you are being picky he could have stayed home a step or 2 but the fault lies with Conn defenders who were caught slow afoot and ball watching

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5020 on: October 12, 2017, 09:47:31 am »
Random Thoughts:

While I criticize Williams' Sisco for lack of production as a striker he DOES have 17 career goals in a Williams uniform. That is pretty decent as an average of 4 goals a year is decent but he was highly touted coming out of Don Bosco Prep.

2 BIGGEST BUSTS in Nescac:

1. Tom Young, Williams--I feel bad because he did get injured in the 1st game of the year against Trinity BUT he was also a highly touted recruit who was going to cause havoc for Williams' opponents. His career stats are BAD as he NEVER scored a goal in a Williams uniform. 47 Games Played only 10 Games started and 0 goals with 5 assists. He is not a striker so he was not supposed to score a ton of goals but create them. In 47 Games he totaled 10 SOG. Yikes. I will say that the coaching change did not help Tom Young as Sullivan seemed to favor other players the last 2 years who could defend better than Young. I think he would have been way more productive if he stayed healthy and played for Williams before 2014.

2. Aidan Murray, Amherst---ANOTHER highly touted recruit who has basically disappeared from Amherst lineup since his Sophmore year. I think he has also had injury problems but he was supposed to be WAY more productive as tons of teams were interested in him. I think maybe in a different system and school he would have been more productive. Career Stats---49 Games 6 Games Started 1 GOAL 3 Assists and 8 SOG....YIKES again...I mean he is not even playing in meaningful Nescac games anymore as he is getting some runs against the like of Pine Manor and New England College.



Offline Go2Goal

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5021 on: October 12, 2017, 10:12:27 am »
I Don't follow the conference closely. I look on this thread do to the importance of the teams that come out of the conference nationally every year. However, I think that picking kids out who are "busts" is really not a good topic. It is unfair, as that is all based of of other people's opinions. These kids go out and play a game they love. Some kids hit their ceiling earlier than others. But calling kids out by name for not tearing it up is disheartening.

Offline Bobcat1

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5022 on: October 12, 2017, 10:51:05 am »
Bakken with the game winner for Bates with 21 seconds left in 2OT.

Just saw the video (NSN still has it up). Really nice run by Merchant down the left to set it up -- tough to have those kind of wheels that late in the game, but he did it.

Agreed, great run, solid cross in to the box and then the nice finish by Bakken. Certainly a deserved result.  Huge weekend ahead with Tufts and Amherst coming to Lewiston.  Smart move to play Tufts on the grass inside the track. As Mr. Right said, sit and counter may be the best approach against Tufts. Bates is in the middle of 5 games in 9 days stretch... finding a way to take a point or points from this weekend will be critical to having a shot at the top 8.

Offline NESCAC11

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5023 on: October 12, 2017, 12:07:13 pm »
Random Thoughts:

While I criticize Williams' Sisco for lack of production as a striker he DOES have 17 career goals in a Williams uniform. That is pretty decent as an average of 4 goals a year is decent but he was highly touted coming out of Don Bosco Prep.

2 BIGGEST BUSTS in Nescac:

1. Tom Young, Williams--I feel bad because he did get injured in the 1st game of the year against Trinity BUT he was also a highly touted recruit who was going to cause havoc for Williams' opponents. His career stats are BAD as he NEVER scored a goal in a Williams uniform. 47 Games Played only 10 Games started and 0 goals with 5 assists. He is not a striker so he was not supposed to score a ton of goals but create them. In 47 Games he totaled 10 SOG. Yikes. I will say that the coaching change did not help Tom Young as Sullivan seemed to favor other players the last 2 years who could defend better than Young. I think he would have been way more productive if he stayed healthy and played for Williams before 2014.

2. Aidan Murray, Amherst---ANOTHER highly touted recruit who has basically disappeared from Amherst lineup since his Sophmore year. I think he has also had injury problems but he was supposed to be WAY more productive as tons of teams were interested in him. I think maybe in a different system and school he would have been more productive. Career Stats---49 Games 6 Games Started 1 GOAL 3 Assists and 8 SOG....YIKES again...I mean he is not even playing in meaningful Nescac games anymore as he is getting some runs against the like of Pine Manor and New England College.

I think a lot can happen in a kid's life between being a great 16 or 17 year old soccer player and their senior year of college. Aside from physical issues, their perspectives on what's important in life might change. Maybe they burn out or decide that they've devoted 20 hours a week to soccer for 10 years and are ready to move on and focus on academics and getting a job. There are many more players on the bench in the NESCAC who had a great HS and Club/Academy career but never were able to reach the same level in college. We don't know all their stories but you don't get recruited and get a spot at one of these schools without having been a better than solid player. In Tom's case, he had a coaching change after his freshman year. He broke his wrist during his junior season and had a gruesome and devastating injury in the first game of his senior year. After being elected captain and showing up in phenomenal shape. He has continued to be a leader to the Williams team and scouts opponents and is constantly talking to the boys. He is a terrific young man who will use this experience as a learning and teaching tool as he goes forward (if he doesn't take next semester off and come back for a 5th year??). I think it's  easy for us to lose perspective on what these games are all about at the D3 level. I really appreciate everyone's interest and analysis and enthusiasm but I'm not sure these games mean as much to the boys as they do to us.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: NESCAC
« Reply #5024 on: October 12, 2017, 01:16:09 pm »
I Don't follow the conference closely. I look on this thread do to the importance of the teams that come out of the conference nationally every year. However, I think that picking kids out who are "busts" is really not a good topic. It is unfair, as that is all based of of other people's opinions. These kids go out and play a game they love. Some kids hit their ceiling earlier than others. But calling kids out by name for not tearing it up is disheartening.

Eh....just calling it like I see it. Nothing against either kid as they are great kids I am sure BUT I am talking about a game.....a sport..not their character as human beings....get over it...