Author Topic: BB: Pool C  (Read 24639 times)

Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #30 on: April 21, 2014, 12:18:23 am »
So in my continuing quest to crack a code that can't be cracked because the code is everchanging (meh), and more importantly to put off doing economics homework, I've been messing around with a bit more objective way to look at the Pool C berths.

The best I've come up with so far is a "1.3/1.2" rule. The idea of it being that if you add together a team's D3 record and their NCAA SOS, if a team has a total of 1.3 or higher, they're very likely to be a Pool C team, and if they're under 1.2, they're quite unlikely. In between could be characterized as the bubble.

Disclaimer: I HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS WORKS. It just seems like it should from the numbers.
Disclaimer 2: I didn't get out a calculator for this.

This turned out to be a bigger group than I thought, so I broke it down further. Case is almost certainly going to be Pool B, so I underlined them.

1.400+ (7)
Heidelberg, UW-Whitewater, St. Thomas, Concordia-Ill., Linfield, Webster, Tufts

1.350-1.399 (5)
Southern Maine 1.358, Case Western 1.379, Moravian 1.383, Shenandoah 1.362, Amherst* 1.365

1.300-1.349 (11, 1 Pool A)
Stevens Point* 1.348, Marietta* 1.300, Cortland State 1.349, Rowan 1.339, Birmingham Southern 1.307, ECSU* 1.313, Salisbury 1.329, Gettysburg 1.346, St. John Fisher 1.307, Buena Vista 1.345, Trinity 1.312

1.250-1.299 (12)
York PA* 1.298, Kean* 1.298, Baldwin-Wallace* 1.289, Allegheny 1.289, Emory 1.286, Concordia-TX 1.281, Adrian 1.279, Cal Lutheran 1.277, Bethel* 1.269, Endicott 1.258, Ithaca 1.257, Rutgers-Camden 1.256

1.200-1.249 (16)
St. John's 1.249 John Carroll 1.243 Oswego State 1.243 Rhodes 1.233 Salem State 1.226 Wheaton MA 1.244 Alvernia 1.221 Berry 1.204 Frostburg State* 1.213 Augustana 1.214 Susquehanna* 1.244 George Fox* 1.214 Bridgewater* 1.209 Union* 1.200 Chapman* 1.224 Wesleyan* 1.232

1.180-1.199 -- just to see if anything slips through the cracks (13)
Willamette* 1.184 Ramapo* 1.181 Millsaps 1.177 Randolph-Macon* 1.188 RPI* 1.184
Wooster* 1.198 Hampden-Sydney* 1.192 Illinois Wesleyan* 1.182 Brockport State* 1.182 La Roche* 1.184 UW Stout* 1.198 LeTourneau* 1.183 Widener 1.199

In the event anyone has made it this far, feel free to comment with how this works, doesn't work, could be better, are surprised it's not worse...basically anything.
I saw that you had underlined CWRU.  I underlined the rest of the Pool B teams to give us an idea of who will be cluttering up Pool C.

Thanks for putting Salisbury, the CAC Pool A, in italics.

I have added an asterisk to the second, third, etc., teams from a conference in which there is a team with a "better number" so we can see how "upsets" impact the list.

I like this methodology of adding D3 Winning %+SOS to rank teams for Pool B/C bids. Takes alot of guess work out of choosing teams. Eliminate any teams with losing records for the last 10 D3 teams and we get closer to getting the right teams picked for Pool B/C. In past years they have been some questionable picks for Pool B/C.
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2014, 01:56:43 pm »
I underlined Case because I feel pretty confident that they won't be in Pool C. I don't have as much confidence who the second Pool B team will be, but I know the 3rd best Pool B eligible will be in Pool C. I feel pretty sure saying that, so I wasn't too bothered about the difference.

Offline tigerfan_2001

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #32 on: April 21, 2014, 03:36:46 pm »
I underlined Case because I feel pretty confident that they won't be in Pool C. I don't have as much confidence who the second Pool B team will be, but I know the 3rd best Pool B eligible will be in Pool C. I feel pretty sure saying that, so I wasn't too bothered about the difference.
Hasn't Linfield wrapped up the Pool A bid from the NWC?

Offline Bishopleftiesdad

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #33 on: April 21, 2014, 04:56:00 pm »
I underlined Case because I feel pretty confident that they won't be in Pool C. I don't have as much confidence who the second Pool B team will be, but I know the 3rd best Pool B eligible will be in Pool C. I feel pretty sure saying that, so I wasn't too bothered about the difference.
Hasn't Linfield wrapped up the Pool A bid from the NWC?
As per Crash, yes they have it wrapped up:

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=8172.0

Thanks Crash. +1

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #34 on: April 21, 2014, 09:44:56 pm »
A bunch of those teams will probably end up with Pool A berths. I don't think it's worth updating every day at this point. Maybe once a week or twice a week right now.

Offline Big Louie

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #35 on: April 22, 2014, 09:55:37 am »
Spence,

It looks pretty detailed. My one concern would be that these numbers don't necessarily take into consideration wins against regional ranked teams which I really think the committee values highly. But then again it is strength of schedule and assuming the better the schedule the more likely you played someone that will be regionally ranked. It'll be interesting to see once the 1st regional rankings come out on Thursday to see how the regional committees value your system. 

Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #36 on: April 22, 2014, 12:42:51 pm »
Would be nice to have the Win-Loss percentage againt DIII opponents somewhere to be found?

Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage last 25% of the season (if applicable)

This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #37 on: April 22, 2014, 10:04:01 pm »
Spence,

It looks pretty detailed. My one concern would be that these numbers don't necessarily take into consideration wins against regional ranked teams which I really think the committee values highly. But then again it is strength of schedule and assuming the better the schedule the more likely you played someone that will be regionally ranked. It'll be interesting to see once the 1st regional rankings come out on Thursday to see how the regional committees value your system.

It's not that detailed. It's really just 2 numbers made into one number. I'm interested to see how it works too. I don't expect it to be perfect at all.

Offline SoCalSoxFan

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #38 on: April 23, 2014, 11:34:58 am »
I think maybe there are still slight possibilities for a couple of teams, but it doesn't look likely unless there's a conference upset.

Pacific Lutheran has a pretty good SOS, but can't afford many (any?) slip ups.

Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Ohio Northern, Fisher and Frostburg have not had helpful weekends. Rhodes beat Birmingham Southern, Allegheny moved into a tie with Wooster coming into their divisional series, Kean and Ithaca had strong Saturdays.
Pac Lu at 21-14 has too many losses in IMO. if the win out they will end up 25-14.

Also, Pac Lu's chance will be impacted by SCIAC tournament results.  Right now CLU and Chapman are tied going into last 4 games.

If the tie continues and then Chapman wins SCIAC tournament vs CLU in finals, then I think CLU would get Pool C before Pac Lu (they beat PL and Lubking 3-0).  CLU would end approx 33-10.

If the tie continues and then CLU wins SCIAC tournamen vs CU in finals, then Chapman would be a candidate for Pool C.  They'll be approx 31-12.  Their early season struggles against NorthWest teams might be drag them down too much to be a Pool C candidate.


Offline tigerfan_2001

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #39 on: April 23, 2014, 12:48:28 pm »
With Trinity Losing last night, I think they are done with a Pool C bid.  Not winning the tourney puts them at 10 losses.

Offline Whatagame

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #40 on: April 23, 2014, 01:08:33 pm »
I think maybe there are still slight possibilities for a couple of teams, but it doesn't look likely unless there's a conference upset.

Pacific Lutheran has a pretty good SOS, but can't afford many (any?) slip ups.

Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Ohio Northern, Fisher and Frostburg have not had helpful weekends. Rhodes beat Birmingham Southern, Allegheny moved into a tie with Wooster coming into their divisional series, Kean and Ithaca had strong Saturdays.
Pac Lu at 21-14 has too many losses in IMO. if the win out they will end up 25-14.

Also, Pac Lu's chance will be impacted by SCIAC tournament results.  Right now CLU and Chapman are tied going into last 4 games.

If the tie continues and then Chapman wins SCIAC tournament vs CLU in finals, then I think CLU would get Pool C before Pac Lu (they beat PL and Lubking 3-0).  CLU would end approx 33-10.

If the tie continues and then CLU wins SCIAC tournamen vs CU in finals, then Chapman would be a candidate for Pool C.  They'll be approx 31-12.  Their early season struggles against NorthWest teams might be drag them down too much to be a Pool C candidate.

The NWC teams (G. Fox in particular) cooked their goose relative to Pool C because in general, with the exception of Linfield, all the teams really beat up on each other in conference play.  I think it is a very deep year talent-wise in the NWC.  The 9 NWC teams combined for a 48-25 record in D3 non-conference games this season, for a .658 win %.  Linfield, G. Fox and Whitman combined for an outstanding 24-3 non-conference D3 record (.889%)

Another indication of the depth of the conference, for instance, is if you look at the overall NWC statistics, 23 guys with a qualifying number of innings have a sub 3.5 ERA, no other conference in West Region is even close to that figure.

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #41 on: April 23, 2014, 01:35:19 pm »
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)

Offline BigPoppa

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #42 on: April 23, 2014, 01:35:46 pm »
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)

You beat me to it, Spence.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #43 on: April 23, 2014, 01:53:31 pm »
Any other time between now and 5 today and you would have. Just came home for lunch and happened to see it.

Offline Whatagame

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #44 on: April 23, 2014, 01:54:22 pm »
Maybe just no one can hit up there? :)

You beat me to it, Spence.

Good one! You know, I actually thought about that.  Linfield and G. Fox for instance are "only" batting .297 and .315, respectively, which is not great compared to the bloated averages in the SCIAC, for instance.  But, having seen a fair number of teams, I'll stick to my guns!