Big games today

Started by hopefan, January 13, 2016, 01:47:08 PM

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fantastic50

Also just one big bubble game today, with bubble team Williams (16-7, .582, 4-5 NESCAC) playing at Bates (15-8, .576, 4-5 NESCAC).  If Williams loses today, they probably need to win the NESCAC tournament, but would seem to be a Pool C candidate if they end up 17-8 or better.

fantastic50

Just one bubble-relevant game tonight...
St Thomas (17-5, SOS 0.533, 2-1 vRRO, WE#3) at St Olaf (10-12)

The Tommies still look reasonably solid at the moment after Saturday's loss to Carleton, but don't want to start a losing streak.

fantastic50

St. Thomas loses at St. Olaf, and is looking more like a bubble team.

Three bubble-relevant games tonight...
Lycoming (18-4, 0.538, 0-1 vRRO, MA#4) at Lebanon Valley (14-8)
Lake Forest (12-9) at St Norbert (17-4, 0.501, 1-1 vRRO)
Ripon (16-5, 0.498, 1-1 vRRO) at Lawrence (9-11)

fantastic50

Lots of games tonight involving bubble teams.  The highest-impact games are listed first.

Keene State (16-7, 9-3 LEC, 0.574, 3-2 vRRO, NE#10) at E Connecticut (15-8)
Susquehanna (19-3, safely in) at Scranton (17-6, 0.531, 3-2 vRRO, MA#6)
Mass-Boston (11-11) at Mass-Dartmouth (16-7, 0.563, 4-2 vRRO, NE#8)
Hanover (17-3, 0.514, 1-2 vRRO, GL#4) at Mt St Joseph (17-4, 0.513, 2-0 vRRO, GL#3)
John Carroll (16-6, 0.571, 2-5 vRRO, GL#5) at Heidelberg (10-13)
Loras (17-6, 0.550, 2-2 vRRO, WE#4) at Coe (8-14)
Elmira (3-18) at St John Fisher (17-5, 0.546, 1-3 vRRO, EA#4)
Cabrini (18-4, 0.501, 1-2 vRRO, AT#3) at Neumann (21-2, very likely in)
UW-River Falls (19-2, safely in) at UW-Eau Claire (16-6, 0.558, 3-1 vRRO, CE#5)
St Mary's (MN) (6-15) at St Thomas (MN) (17-6, 0.533, 2-1 vRRO, WE#3)
Illinois Wesleyan (16-6, 0.557, 3-4 vRRO, CE#8) at Wheaton (IL) (11-11)
Stockton (14-9) at New Jersey City (18-6, 0.500, 4-3 vRRO, AT#5)
St Lawrence (18-4, 0.519, 1-3 vRRO, EA#2) at Clarkson (11-11)
Emory & Henry (15-7) at Guilford (19-4, 0.505, 2-1 vRRO, SO#1)
Swarthmore (19-4, 0.533, 1-2 vRRO, MA#5) at Haverford (2-20)
Emerson (6-16) at MIT (18-5, 0.539, 0-3 vRRO, NE#9)
Wooster (16-7, 0.543, 3-5 vRRO, GL#6) at Kenyon (5-18)
Ramapo (22-2, 0.484, 4-2 vRRO, AT#2) at Rowan (16-8)
Moravian (15-6, 0.512, 3-4 vRRO) at Drew (11-11)
N Central (IL) (14-8) at Carthage (14-7, 0.569, 3-4 vRRO)
Catholic (16-7, 0.561, 2-5 vRRO, MA#7) at Elizabethtown (5-16)
Hiram (10-13) at Denison (19-4, 0.460, 3-2 vRRO, GL#9)

fantastic50

Some key games in the south & west regions today, including a Texas tussle with major bubble implications.

Concordia (TX) (16-5, 7-1 ASC, 0.540, 1-2 vRRO, SO#2) at Hardin-Simmons (17-6, 6-2 ASC, 0.553, 2-1 vRRO, SO#3)
Cal Lutheran (14-6, 8-4 SCIAC) at C-M-S (16-2, 11-2 SCIAC, 0.480, 0-0 vRRO, WE#5)
LeTourneau (18-4, 9-1 ASC, 0.490, 1-1 vRRO, SO#5) at Texas-Dallas (10-12)

fantastic50

Hardin-Simmons won the big game last night.  Tonight's game has not on the Liberty League's top seed on the line, but also Skidmore's Pool C hopes.

Skidmore (17-6, 12-2 LL, 0.510, 5-1 vRRO, EA#6) 75%/10% at St Lawrence (19-4, 13-2 LL, 0.516, 2-4 vRRO, EA#2) 97%/76%
Cortland (16-7, 11-5 SUNYAC, 0.521, 2-3 vRRO, EA#7) 10%/0% at Brockport (18-5, 13-3 SUNYAC, 0.514, 1-3 vRRO, EA#4) 50%/12%
Oswego State (17-5, 14-2 SUNYAC, 0.513, 3-1 vRRO, EA#3) 69%/22% at SUNY-Geneseo (13-10)
St John Fisher (18-5, 13-1 E8, 0.536, 1-3 vRRO, EA#5) 48%/14% at Stevens (16-6)
Case Western (7-15) at Emory (15-7, 6-5 UAA, 0.549, 2-3 vRRO, SO#4) 18%/1%

fantastic50

Recapping yesterday...

  • Skidmore's win over St Lawrence leaves both in decent position, but pressured to avoid a semifinal loss in the Liberty League tournament
  • Cortland's win at Brockport means that either would need to reach the final to have any realistic Pool C chances, and the SUNYAC might well be a one-bid league if top-seeded Oswego wins the AQ
  • St John Fisher's overtime win at Stevens keeps the Cardinals on the bubble, if they are upset in the Empire 8 tournament.

Lots of big games today, on the last full day of the regular season.  The most important ones are listed first.  Percentages are shown are Pool-C-berth-if-needed probabilities, after winning/losing today's game.  Teams in bold likely must win to keep realistic Pool C hopes alive.

Nebraska Wesleyan (16-6) at Loras (18-6, 11-4 IIAC, 0.543, 1-1 vRRO, WE#4) 82%/9%
UW-Eau Claire (17-6, 8-5 WIAC, 0.567, 3-1 vRRO, CE#4) 100%/32% at UW-Whitewater (18-5, 8-5 WIAC, 0.566, 1-3 vRRO, CE#3) 100%/92%
Goucher (5-19) at Scranton (18-6, 10-3 LAND, 0.539, 5-3 vRRO, MA#7) 88%/14%
MIT (19-5, 11-2 NEWMAC, 0.531, 0-3 vRRO, NE#9) 90%/20% at Babson (23-1, 13-0 NEWMAC, 0.572, 3-1 vRRO, NE#1) already a lock
Capital (12-12) at John Carroll (17-6, 14-3 OAC, 0.565, 2-5 vRRO, GL#5) 86%/19%
Concordia (TX) (16-6, 7-2 ASC, 0.548, 1-2 vRRO, SO#2) 68%/1% at McMurry (8-14)
Oswego State (18-5, 15-2 SUNYAC, 0.516, 3-1 vRRO, EA#3) 92%/54% at Brockport (18-6, 13-4 SUNYAC, 0.515, 1-4 vRRO, EA#4) 25%/1%
Augustana (18-5, 11-3 CCIW, 0.522, 2-2 vRRO, CE#5) 85%/37% at North Park (16-7, 9-5 CCIW, 0.526, 3-2 vRRO, CE) 10%/0%
Gwynedd Mercy (19-5) at Cabrini (18-5, 14-3 CSAC, 0.517, 1-4 vRRO, AT#3) 55%/25%
Wittenberg (17-7) at Wooster (17-7, 14-3 NCAC, 0.532, 4-5 vRRO, GL#6) 35%/0%
Catholic (17-7, 9-4 LAND, 0.547, 2-5 vRRO, MA#6) 27%/0% at Moravian (16-6)
Stevenson (4-20) at Lycoming (19-4, 12-3 MACC, 0.538, 0-1 vRRO, MA#5) 74%/41%
St John Fisher (19-5, 14-1 E8, 0.543, 1-3 vRRO, EA#5) 68%/35% at Hartwick (16-8)
Guilford (19-5, 12-3 ODAC, 0.509, 2-2 vRRO, SO#1) 78%/46% at Bridgewater (VA) (5-18)
Mary Hardin-Baylor (16-8) at Hardin-Simmons (18-6, 7-2 ASC, 0.555, 3-1 vRRO, SO#3) 85%/52%
La Verne (16-7, 10-4 SCIAC, 0.514, 3-4 vRRO, WE#7) 17%/0% at Cal Lutheran (16-6, 10-4 SCIAC, 0.496, 2-3 vRRO, WE) 13%/0%
W New England (6-17) at Endicott (19-5, 14-3 CCC, 0.514, 1-1 vRRO, NE#10) 57%/28%
Chapman (7-11) at C-M-S (16-3, 11-3 SCIAC, 0.487, 2-2 vRRO, WE#5) 47%/18%
Mt St Joseph (17-5, 13-4 HCAC, 0.522, 2-1 vRRO, GL#3) 95%/66% at Earlham (6-18)
Carthage (15-7, 9-5 CCIW, 0.569, 2-4 vRRO, CE#8) 26%/0% at Millikin (3-20)
Lakeland (7-16) at Benedictine (IL) (20-3, 18-1 NACC, 0.492, 0-0 vRRO, CE#7) 39%/14%
Swarthmore (20-4, 14-3 CC, 0.515, 2-2 vRRO, MA#4) 89%/65% at Franklin & Marshall (16-7)
Cortland (17-7, 12-5 SUNYAC, 0.531, 3-3 vRRO, EA#7) 20%/0% at SUNY-Geneseo (13-11)
St Thomas (MN) (18-6, 14-5 MIAC, 0.525, 0-1 vRRO, WE#3) 19%/0% at Concordia-Moorhead (11-11)
Beloit (6-16) at St Norbert (18-4, 15-2 MWC, 0.504, 1-1 vRRO, CE) 24%/6%
LeTourneau (19-4, 10-1 ASC, 0.489, 1-1 vRRO, SO#5) 22%/4% at Univ. of the Ozarks (3-15)
N Central (IL) (14-9) at Illinois Wesleyan (16-7, 8-6 CCIW, 0.556, 5-2 vRRO, CE#6) 18%/1%
Ripon (17-5, 13-4 MWC, 0.497, 1-1 vRRO, CE) 20%/3% at Knox (2-20)

fantastic50

Just two bubble games this afternoon.  It's a must-win situation for Emory.
Clarkson (11-12) at Skidmore (18-6, 13-2 LL, 0.522, 6-1 vRRO, EA#6) 97%/39%
Carnegie Mellon (13-10) at Emory (16-7, 7-5 UAA, 0.544, 2-3 vRRO, SO#4) 29%/0%

fantastic50

Here are today's bubble games.  Bold indicates a must-win (to stay in Pool C contention).  Percentages following team info are Pool-C-berth-if-needed probabilities based on winning/losing this game.

Augustana (18-6, 0.528, 2-2 vRRO, CE#5) 93%/15% at Illinois Wesleyan (16-8, 0.555, 5-2 vRRO, CE#6) 12%/0%
New Jersey City (19-6, 0.506, 4-3 vRRO, AT#4) 93%/61% at TCNJ (18-7, 0.515, 3-4 vRRO, AT#5) 16%/0%
Wabash (11-13, 0.465, 0-6) at Wooster (18-7, 0.535, 4-5 vRRO, GL#6) 47%/1%
Muskingum (13-12, 0.493, 1-5) at John Carroll (17-7, 0.562, 2-5 vRRO, GL#5) 33%/0%
Salve Regina (8-15, 0.483, 0-2) at Endicott (20-5, 0.511, 1-1 vRRO, NE#10) 53%/21%
Caltech (7-17, 0.502, 2-5) at Cal Lutheran (17-6, 0.500, 3-3 vRRO, WE) 23%/0%
Millikin (3-21, 0.547, 0-6) at North Park (17-7, 0.532, 4-2 vRRO, CE) 17%/0%
Wheaton (IL) (12-12, 0.540, 2-5) at Carthage (16-7, 0.553, 2-4 vRRO, CE#8) 12%/0%

hopefan

This was popular last year, Time to get this thread restarted...one stop shopping to see the biggest games of the day... I'll try to get it posted pretty early each day... this way those of you that follow D3 on the National basis know which games are a little more critical than the rest. 

only one biggy for 12/11/17, Monday

nonconference   NEWMAC MIT H (9 - 1)     vs LEC Mass-Dartmouth A (6 - 2)               

The only thing not to be liked in Florida is no D3 hoops!!!

hopefan

result from yesterday:

nonconference   NEWMAC MIT H (9 - 1)     vs LEC Mass-Dartmouth A (6 - 2)    MIT wins 88-68

Big games today 12/11

MASCAC Salem State H (7 - 2)     vs    CCC Endicott A (5 - 2)               
NESCAC Amherst H (6 - 1)     vs    NEWMAC Springfield A (4 - 2)               
UAA Rochester H (8 - 1)     vs    LL Ithaca A (5 - 1)
The only thing not to be liked in Florida is no D3 hoops!!!

gordonmann

Love this board idea btw.

warriorcat

I like it too. Please continue

hopefan

Yesterday's big game results

MASCAC Salem State H (7 - 2)     vs    CCC Endicott A (5 - 2)        Endicott 96-76       
NESCAC Amherst H (6 - 1)     vs    NEWMAC Springfield A (4 - 2)       Amherst 71-66       
UAA Rochester H (8 - 1)     vs    LL Ithaca A (5 - 1)                     Ithaca 71-68

Today's Big Games

CAC York (Pa.) H (7 - 0)     vs CC Swarthmore A (8 - 0)   Battle of undefeateds

2 big MIAC games:
MIAC Carleton H  (3 - 0) (5 - 1)       vs Augsburg A  (3 - 1) (6 - 1)                  
MIAC St. Thomas H  (1 - 2) (3 - 4)       vs Gustavus Adolphus A  (4 - 0) (6 - 2)      (is this it for St Thomas?)               
         


The only thing not to be liked in Florida is no D3 hoops!!!

hopefan

Yesterday's Big Game Results

CAC York (Pa.) H (7 - 0)     vs CC Swarthmore A (8 - 0)   York (Pa.) wins battle of undefeateds  83-79, should move in to top 25

2 big MIAC games:
MIAC Carleton H  (3 - 0) (5 - 1)       vs Augsburg A  (3 - 1) (6 - 1)     Carlton wins 66-64, stays undefeated in MIAC with St. John's             
MIAC St. Thomas H  (1 - 2) (3 - 4)       vs Gustavus Adolphus A  (4 - 0) (6 - 2)      (is this it for St Thomas?) NO.. St. Thomas wins 64-51

Today's Big Games

Closest we can come to a Big Game is an OAC Matchup:
OAC Heidelberg H  (2 - 0) (4 - 2)       vs Baldwin Wallace A  (1 - 1) (4 - 2)                  



The only thing not to be liked in Florida is no D3 hoops!!!