Author Topic: NCAA Snubs?  (Read 1775 times)

Offline BigPoppa

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NCAA Snubs?
« on: May 15, 2017, 10:02:37 am »
Alright... have at it. Who was left out that you feel should have been in? Who got in (via Pool C) that surprised you?
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Offline cubs

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2017, 10:31:41 am »
Alright... have at it. Who was left out that you feel should have been in? Who got in (via Pool C) that surprised you?
Nobody.... 

Any team that is cleaning out their lockers today had a chance to win their conference tournament and earn the Pool A bid.  If they "slipped" in the conference tournament, they should have put together a non-conference schedule that boosted their SOS number enough like Birmingham-Southern, Cortland, and Shenandoah did just to name a few.   ;D
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Offline BigPoppa

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2017, 10:35:55 am »
Alright... have at it. Who was left out that you feel should have been in? Who got in (via Pool C) that surprised you?
Nobody.... 

Any team that is cleaning out their lockers today had a chance to win their conference tournament and earn the Pool A bid.  If they "slipped" in the conference tournament, they should have put together a non-conference schedule that boosted their SOS number enough like Birmingham-Southern, Cortland, and Shenandoah did just to name a few.   ;D

Agree... Everyone had a chance and didn't get it done. Kudos to those "non-favorites" who took advantage of their opportunities and grabbed a Pool A bid. Always love to to see surprise teams find a way in... and I am looking at you, Greenville!
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2017, 10:26:53 pm »
Having had an extra two hours on my hand, I broke down all of the at-large teams as well as those left at the table and a couple more on the bubble:
http://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2017/breaking-down-at-large
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Offline BigPoppa

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2017, 08:49:24 am »
Having had an extra two hours on my hand, I broke down all of the at-large teams as well as those left at the table and a couple more on the bubble:
http://www.d3baseball.com/playoffs/2017/breaking-down-at-large

Great analysis, Pat.
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Offline BURoyalFan

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2017, 12:17:24 pm »
Thank you for ALL the great coverage and analysis Pat and crew.  I have really enjoyed the D3 sites over my son's college career in both football and baseball.  Still stinging a little that Bethel did not get an at large this year, really felt the resume was good enough as I'm sure the other Teams that didn't make the cut felt the same.  I would like to vent one last time...Are the criteria you posted in your article in order of importance?  It seems to me that the absolute main criteria is SOS, and also very little concern over wins/losses if your SOS is high, just play tougher teams even if you lose to them more often. This seemed to be a national phenomenon with at large teams this season.  UST is a very good team and I wish them well and hope they advance far in the tourney as a MIAC rep, however I still struggle with how they were ranked ahead of BU regionally when their only real significant advantage was SOS.  We were .767 to .619 D3 WP, 2/1 H2H, 15-7 to 17-5 Common opp, 6-3 to 8-11 RRO, .587 to .522 SOS and 7-4 to 6-5 WL last 25%.  We played Buena Vista early and they were ranked nationally and expect to be 1 or 2 in the IIAC but didn't do as well as anticipated.  We were also ranked nationally and UST never was.  Again hats off to UST for playing a tougher schedule, I get it but it seems to carry way too much clout.  I also have real issues (and by the D3 projections so do you, with Alverina and Rowan) why do some regions rank top 12 which seems to help them nationally?

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2017, 12:22:20 pm »
There is no order of importance -- all are considered relevant. But, of course, the only ones that every candidate is guaranteed to have are a winning percentage and a strength of schedule. (Although, with 40 games in baseball, typically everyone has at least some results vs. regionally ranked opponents as well.)
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2017, 12:30:46 pm »
It seems to me that the absolute main criteria is SOS, and also very little concern over wins/losses if your SOS is high, just play tougher teams even if you lose to them more often.

SOS is definitely big. But if you lose to them at the rate at which Washington & Lee, East Texas Baptist did or Mount Union did, it won't help you.

This seemed to be a national phenomenon with at large teams this season.  UST is a very good team and I wish them well and hope they advance far in the tourney as a MIAC rep, however I still struggle with how they were ranked ahead of BU regionally when their only real significant advantage was SOS.  We were .767 to .619 D3 WP, 2/1 H2H, 15-7 to 17-5 Common opp, 6-3 to 8-11 RRO, .587 to .522 SOS and 7-4 to 6-5 WL last 25%. 

8-11 RRO is better than 6-3. That's an advantage. More results. More wins. Also, you have simplified RRO more than the committee does. The committee doesn't treat all results the same -- it's more valuable to play teams highly ranked in their region than teams ranked below you.

why do some regions rank top 12 which seems to help them nationally?

The number of teams ranked is based on the size of the region -- the West has fewer teams while the Mideast, Mid-Atlantic and New England have a lot.
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Offline SoCalBaseballfan

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2017, 11:36:47 pm »
It seems to me that the absolute main criteria is SOS, and also very little concern over wins/losses if your SOS is high, just play tougher teams even if you lose to them more often.

SOS is definitely big. But if you lose to them at the rate at which Washington & Lee, East Texas Baptist did or Mount Union did, it won't help you.

This seemed to be a national phenomenon with at large teams this season.  UST is a very good team and I wish them well and hope they advance far in the tourney as a MIAC rep, however I still struggle with how they were ranked ahead of BU regionally when their only real significant advantage was SOS.  We were .767 to .619 D3 WP, 2/1 H2H, 15-7 to 17-5 Common opp, 6-3 to 8-11 RRO, .587 to .522 SOS and 7-4 to 6-5 WL last 25%. 

8-11 RRO is better than 6-3. That's an advantage. More results. More wins. Also, you have simplified RRO more than the committee does. The committee doesn't treat all results the same -- it's more valuable to play teams highly ranked in their region than teams ranked below you.

why do some regions rank top 12 which seems to help them nationally?

The number of teams ranked is based on the size of the region -- the West has fewer teams while the Mideast, Mid-Atlantic and New England have a lot.
Number teams in a region should not be a factor. What happens if west has top 10 teams. Ant west bias imo

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: NCAA Snubs?
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2017, 08:06:44 am »
I see you've posted this elsewhere and I'll let my previous answer stand. We're unlikely to see the NCAA committee put in eight West Region teams as that would be eight of the 38 eligible teams, one out of every 4.75.
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