Pool C

Started by usee, October 28, 2008, 12:25:35 PM

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Ralph Turner

I think that Concordia is sent somewhere as a low seed.

SJU stays home.

redswarm81

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2008, 10:54:09 PM
I think that Concordia is sent somewhere as a low seed.

SJU stays home.

And by "stays home," you don't mean "hosts a first round game," right?   ;)

I agree.  The West Region has 5 Pool A conferences, leaving only three slots for Pool B and Pool C.  I see no possibility of a Pool C for the MIAC, especially with one-loss Pool C candidates UW-Whitewater and Redlands, and one-loss Pool B candidate Northwestern.

I think it's possible that even with two losses, Cal Lutheran might end up ranked ahead of St. John's this Wednesday.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

HScoach

Is it me, or does there seem to be a lot more 1 loss teams than normal fighting for spots this year?   Which leads me to believe that unless the last 2 weeks get absolutely crazy, it's going to be awfully hard for a 2 loss team to make it as a Pool C this year. 

The WIAC is probably the only conference that could pull it off.  The OAC has gotten 8-2 teams in before, but the only way Otterbein or Mount Union finishes 8-2 is to drop their last 2 games and that won't get you in.  Ithaca might have a reasonable chance at sneaking in if they drop another one, but that might be a stretch too. 
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: hscoach on November 05, 2008, 07:29:47 AM
Is it me, or does there seem to be a lot more 1 loss teams than normal fighting for spots this year?   Which leads me to believe that unless the last 2 weeks get absolutely crazy, it's going to be awfully hard for a 2 loss team to make it as a Pool C this year. 

The WIAC is probably the only conference that could pull it off.  The OAC has gotten 8-2 teams in before, but the only way Otterbein or Mount Union finishes 8-2 is to drop their last 2 games and that won't get you in.  Ithaca might have a reasonable chance at sneaking in if they drop another one, but that might be a stretch too. 
Please remember when you are looking at WIAC records, that only UWSP and UWW have one in-region loss.  Everyone else has more.

I agree.  Two in-region losses are going to knock teams out.

d-train

Quote from: redswarm81 on November 04, 2008, 11:11:22 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2008, 10:54:09 PM
I think that Concordia is sent somewhere as a low seed.

SJU stays home.

And by "stays home," you don't mean "hosts a first round game," right?   ;)

I agree.  The West Region has 5 Pool A conferences, leaving only three slots for Pool B and Pool C.  I see no possibility of a Pool C for the MIAC, especially with one-loss Pool C candidates UW-Whitewater and Redlands, and one-loss Pool B candidate Northwestern.

I think it's possible that even with two losses, Cal Lutheran might end up ranked ahead of St. John's this Wednesday.

Clarification - the West has 6 Pool A's: WIAC, MWC, NWC, SCIAC, MIAC, IIAC. But that doesn't mean the West 'gets' two at-large bids. Pools B and C are evaluated nationwide. The West could get 3 or 4 at-large bids and 'export' teams (though that's not likely this year) or get 0 or 1 at-large bids and import teams to fill the bracket.

redswarm81

Quote from: d-train on November 05, 2008, 11:20:31 AM
Quote from: redswarm81 on November 04, 2008, 11:11:22 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 04, 2008, 10:54:09 PM
I think that Concordia is sent somewhere as a low seed.

SJU stays home.

And by "stays home," you don't mean "hosts a first round game," right?   ;)

I agree.  The West Region has 5 Pool A conferences, leaving only three slots for Pool B and Pool C.  I see no possibility of a Pool C for the MIAC, especially with one-loss Pool C candidates UW-Whitewater and Redlands, and one-loss Pool B candidate Northwestern.

I think it's possible that even with two losses, Cal Lutheran might end up ranked ahead of St. John's this Wednesday.

Clarification - the West has 6 Pool A's: WIAC, MWC, NWC, SCIAC, MIAC, IIAC. But that doesn't mean the West 'gets' two at-large bids. Pools B and C are evaluated nationwide. The West could get 3 or 4 at-large bids and 'export' teams (though that's not likely this year) or get 0 or 1 at-large bids and import teams to fill the bracket.

Good point.  I suspect that the practical realities of the West Region's immense geography can work against West Region Pool C candidates, particularly if extra airfare would result from their selection.

I wasn't paying close attention last year--could NWC have fallen victim to such practical realities?
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

Bob.Gregg

swarm,

"SUPPOSEDLY" geography isn't a factor in SELECTION.  It is in matchups.

Of course, who KNOWS what goes on behind the closed doors of those meetings.
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

d-train

#52
Right, supposedly not...

But let's face it, granting a bid to Redlands means an extra flight out west (unless you are planning to let both Oxy and Willamette host anyway...or are willing to re-match Redlands/Oxy in round 1).

And, yes, that might have played a role in the Whitworth snub last year. Redlands was eliminated after one flight last year. The only 'cost savings' place to put Whitworth would have been at Redlands (a rematch from week one). At least one more flight would have been needed (either to split them as a pairing or to fly the winner for round two).

Generally though, I think enough coaches are a part of the process that it's (mostly) fair and follows the selection criteria.

redswarm81

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2008, 11:41:42 AM
swarm,

"SUPPOSEDLY" geography isn't a factor in SELECTION.  It is in matchups.

Of course, who KNOWS what goes on behind the closed doors of those meetings.

Another good point.

I welcome the assistance of all who can help me fight the creeping tide of cynicism.   :)
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

KitchenSink

Quote from: redswarm81 on November 05, 2008, 12:01:07 PM
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2008, 11:41:42 AM
swarm,

"SUPPOSEDLY" geography isn't a factor in SELECTION.  It is in matchups.

Of course, who KNOWS what goes on behind the closed doors of those meetings.

Another good point.

I welcome the assistance of all who can help me fight the creeping tide of cynicism.   :)

With election season fresh in our minds?  Good luck with that.  ;)
What the hell was that?  That was a Drop-kick.  Drop-kick? How much is that worth?  Three points.  THREE POINTS?!

redswarm81

Quote from: KitchenSink on November 05, 2008, 01:27:06 PM
Quote from: redswarm81 on November 05, 2008, 12:01:07 PM
Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 05, 2008, 11:41:42 AM
swarm,

"SUPPOSEDLY" geography isn't a factor in SELECTION.  It is in matchups.

Of course, who KNOWS what goes on behind the closed doors of those meetings.

Another good point.

I welcome the assistance of all who can help me fight the creeping tide of cynicism.   :)

With election season fresh in our minds?  Good luck with that.  ;)

I said I welcome assistance, not resistance!   :D
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

johnnie_esq

Quote from: hscoach on November 05, 2008, 07:29:47 AM
Is it me, or does there seem to be a lot more 1 loss teams than normal fighting for spots this year?   Which leads me to believe that unless the last 2 weeks get absolutely crazy, it's going to be awfully hard for a 2 loss team to make it as a Pool C this year. 

The WIAC is probably the only conference that could pull it off.  The OAC has gotten 8-2 teams in before, but the only way Otterbein or Mount Union finishes 8-2 is to drop their last 2 games and that won't get you in.  Ithaca might have a reasonable chance at sneaking in if they drop another one, but that might be a stretch too. 

Right now SJU looks like it is one of the top two loss seeds IF the committee needs to go that far.  Not that the Johnnies are necessarily deserving of getting in, but given their new regional ranking, they are knocking at the door and ahead of two Pool A contenders.  Note that the Johnnies record against regionally ranked opponents is 1-1 now, while Northwestern is 0-0 and UW-W is 0-1.

The MIAC situation is quite unsettled yet-- there is at least one scenario where there could be a six-way tie for first place in the conference, and another that would include a five-way tie.  Of course, each of those situations would include Gustavus and SJU (as well as Carleton and Concordia) each dropping another game, and there is zero chance a 3-loss team would be in the playoffs on an at large bid.

However, if both SJU and Concordia win out, Concordia will take the autobid by virtue of the head-to-head victory against the Johnnies even though SJU is currently ranked higher than the Cobbers, and SJU ends the season early. 

Gotta love that logic!
SJU Champions 2003 NCAA D3, 1976 NCAA D3, 1965 NAIA, 1963 NAIA; SJU 2nd Place 2000 NCAA D3; SJU MIAC Champions 2018, 2014, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1991, 1989, 1985, 1982, 1979, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1971, 1965, 1963, 1962, 1953, 1938, 1936, 1935, 1932

HSC85

Is it more important to have a loss against a regionally ranked team or to have a high OWP and OOWP?  I see Trinity and Washington & Jefferson still in the regional rankings even though they have a regional loss and no wins over ranked teams.  Hampden-Sydney has a loss against a regionally ranked team and a higher OWP and OOWP than both of those teams.  I am just trying to understand how the process works. 

Bob.Gregg

The way I understand it, the ONLY rankings that matter are the ones after the final games (11/15) and we never get to see those.  Only the committee does.

These rankings are discussion pieces but I don't believe they carry any weight whatsoever (wins vs. ranked opponents) with the championship committee.

Right?
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Mr. Ypsi

As I understand it, the rankings are critically important in getting to even be considered.  I believe the national committee only considers four teams at a time, the highest ranked eligible team in each region.  Once a team is selected, their 'place at the table' is taken by the next highest team in that region.  So you will never even reach the discussion until eligible teams ranked ahead of you in your region have been selected.

Correct?