FB: American Rivers Conference

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doolittledog

#41280
Quote from: HansenRatings on September 29, 2016, 10:33:11 AM
Don't know if you all saw the ATN conference rankings are out. One of the reasons I decided to start doing my own rating system was because I was perpetually skeptical of D3Football's rankings of conferences, and other rating systems had some ridiculous results (last year one computer rating had the MIAA as the best conference in the country... *scoff*).

I didn't try to design the model so that the IIAC's average rating was always higher than where D3Football ranked them, but that's the way it has worked out. I'm not sure if their ratings are perpetually inflated by being the fourth best conference in the Midwest (WIAC, MIAC, CCIW), so their SoS numbers get a good boost by playing those teams, but I think one of the main differences between how my ratings work and how humans look at results is the differentiation between WINS and SCORING DIFFERENTIAL. The IIAC tends to play about 0.500 ball or slightly worse against the better conferences, but when they lose, they lose close, which my model gives them credit for.

Anyways, here's my mid-season conference rankings. The IIAC is the sixth best conference in the country.

In the old days, when IIAC teams made deeper playoff runs, the IIAC was ranked 6-9 or there abouts.  Now we've dropped just outside the top 10 after some early round exits.  Part of the problem, is with our lower profile, our playoff representative is getting a 1st round road game against at MIAC, or CCIW team.  Gone are the days of 1st round home games...and home games against either a 2nd place MIAC or a team from the Midwest conference opponent.  It will be tough sledding to pull our way back up with those odds, but hopefully we can raise our profile again. 

I like the rankings that put my favorite teams higher up.  So therefore Hansen Ratings are my current favorites  ;D  Seriously, though, the Hansen Ratings seemed to be well thought out. And rely more on data, as opposed to biased opinions. 

Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

Pat Coleman

Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 04:43:09 PM
In the old days, when IIAC teams made deeper playoff runs, the IIAC was ranked 6-9 or there abouts.  Now we've dropped just outside the top 10 after some early round exits.  Part of the problem, is with our lower profile, our playoff representative is getting a 1st round road game against at MIAC, or CCIW team.  Gone are the days of 1st round home games...and home games against either a 2nd place MIAC or a team from the Midwest conference opponent.  It will be tough sledding to pull our way back up with those odds, but hopefully we can raise our profile again.

This has nothing to do with the IIAC's profile and everything to do with the IIAC's teams. Wartburg didn't get two home playoff games in 2014 because the IIAC suddenly had a better profile than in 2013 -- it had home games because it ran the table in conference play and beat strong teams out of conference. That, in turn, raised the profile of the conference, but it didn't mean that Dubuque, with its two regular-season losses, was going to get a home playoff game.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

doolittledog

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2016, 04:51:22 PM
Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 04:43:09 PM
In the old days, when IIAC teams made deeper playoff runs, the IIAC was ranked 6-9 or there abouts.  Now we've dropped just outside the top 10 after some early round exits.  Part of the problem, is with our lower profile, our playoff representative is getting a 1st round road game against at MIAC, or CCIW team.  Gone are the days of 1st round home games...and home games against either a 2nd place MIAC or a team from the Midwest conference opponent.  It will be tough sledding to pull our way back up with those odds, but hopefully we can raise our profile again.

This has nothing to do with the IIAC's profile and everything to do with the IIAC's teams. Wartburg didn't get two home playoff games in 2014 because the IIAC suddenly had a better profile than in 2013 -- it had home games because it ran the table in conference play and beat strong teams out of conference. That, in turn, raised the profile of the conference, but it didn't mean that Dubuque, with its two regular-season losses, was going to get a home playoff game.

To a degree yes.  In 2013 Wartburg went on the road to 2nd place in the CCIW Illinois Wesleyan.  I know Wartburg had a loss in conference play that year, but they were still the IIAC champ going on the road against a 2nd place team from the CCIW.  That was sticking out in my mind.  Of course I'm also in the office and not exactly looking up statistics. 
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

Pat Coleman

Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 05:11:51 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2016, 04:51:22 PM
Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 04:43:09 PM
In the old days, when IIAC teams made deeper playoff runs, the IIAC was ranked 6-9 or there abouts.  Now we've dropped just outside the top 10 after some early round exits.  Part of the problem, is with our lower profile, our playoff representative is getting a 1st round road game against at MIAC, or CCIW team.  Gone are the days of 1st round home games...and home games against either a 2nd place MIAC or a team from the Midwest conference opponent.  It will be tough sledding to pull our way back up with those odds, but hopefully we can raise our profile again.

This has nothing to do with the IIAC's profile and everything to do with the IIAC's teams. Wartburg didn't get two home playoff games in 2014 because the IIAC suddenly had a better profile than in 2013 -- it had home games because it ran the table in conference play and beat strong teams out of conference. That, in turn, raised the profile of the conference, but it didn't mean that Dubuque, with its two regular-season losses, was going to get a home playoff game.

To a degree yes.  In 2013 Wartburg went on the road to 2nd place in the CCIW Illinois Wesleyan.  I know Wartburg had a loss in conference play that year, but they were still the IIAC champ going on the road against a 2nd place team from the CCIW.  That was sticking out in my mind.  Of course I'm also in the office and not exactly looking up statistics.

The committee doesn't consider Pool A vs. Pool C when seeding teams. All that matters is the criteria.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

doolittledog

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2016, 05:36:23 PM
Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 05:11:51 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2016, 04:51:22 PM
Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 04:43:09 PM
In the old days, when IIAC teams made deeper playoff runs, the IIAC was ranked 6-9 or there abouts.  Now we've dropped just outside the top 10 after some early round exits.  Part of the problem, is with our lower profile, our playoff representative is getting a 1st round road game against at MIAC, or CCIW team.  Gone are the days of 1st round home games...and home games against either a 2nd place MIAC or a team from the Midwest conference opponent.  It will be tough sledding to pull our way back up with those odds, but hopefully we can raise our profile again.

This has nothing to do with the IIAC's profile and everything to do with the IIAC's teams. Wartburg didn't get two home playoff games in 2014 because the IIAC suddenly had a better profile than in 2013 -- it had home games because it ran the table in conference play and beat strong teams out of conference. That, in turn, raised the profile of the conference, but it didn't mean that Dubuque, with its two regular-season losses, was going to get a home playoff game.

To a degree yes.  In 2013 Wartburg went on the road to 2nd place in the CCIW Illinois Wesleyan.  I know Wartburg had a loss in conference play that year, but they were still the IIAC champ going on the road against a 2nd place team from the CCIW.  That was sticking out in my mind.  Of course I'm also in the office and not exactly looking up statistics.

The committee doesn't consider Pool A vs. Pool C when seeding teams. All that matters is the criteria.

Yeah, but that kind of goes with the point that if the IIAC was still considered a top 6-8 conference, the committee probably would have given the home game to Wartburg, with Illinois Wesleyan travelling to Waverly, instead of the other way around. 
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

Pat Coleman

Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 06:23:13 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2016, 05:36:23 PM
Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 05:11:51 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 29, 2016, 04:51:22 PM
Quote from: doolittledog on September 29, 2016, 04:43:09 PM
In the old days, when IIAC teams made deeper playoff runs, the IIAC was ranked 6-9 or there abouts.  Now we've dropped just outside the top 10 after some early round exits.  Part of the problem, is with our lower profile, our playoff representative is getting a 1st round road game against at MIAC, or CCIW team.  Gone are the days of 1st round home games...and home games against either a 2nd place MIAC or a team from the Midwest conference opponent.  It will be tough sledding to pull our way back up with those odds, but hopefully we can raise our profile again.

This has nothing to do with the IIAC's profile and everything to do with the IIAC's teams. Wartburg didn't get two home playoff games in 2014 because the IIAC suddenly had a better profile than in 2013 -- it had home games because it ran the table in conference play and beat strong teams out of conference. That, in turn, raised the profile of the conference, but it didn't mean that Dubuque, with its two regular-season losses, was going to get a home playoff game.

To a degree yes.  In 2013 Wartburg went on the road to 2nd place in the CCIW Illinois Wesleyan.  I know Wartburg had a loss in conference play that year, but they were still the IIAC champ going on the road against a 2nd place team from the CCIW.  That was sticking out in my mind.  Of course I'm also in the office and not exactly looking up statistics.

The committee doesn't consider Pool A vs. Pool C when seeding teams. All that matters is the criteria.

Yeah, but that kind of goes with the point that if the IIAC was still considered a top 6-8 conference, the committee probably would have given the home game to Wartburg, with Illinois Wesleyan travelling to Waverly, instead of the other way around.

I really cannot reiterate enough that the committee does not actually work this way.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Pat Coleman

It's all about the criteria of the individual teams, not the reputation of the conference.

2013:
Wartburg 8-2, .485 SOS
Illinois Wesleyan 9-1, .499 SOS

Pretty simple. I feel pretty confident in saying that no amount of 'conference reputation' went into this decision.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Klompen

It is always nice to play at home, like this Saturday against Dubuque.  Hopefully that will be a Dutch win that puts us one step closer, though still a long ways away, from playoffs.  I would love to see Central run the table and maybe get a shot at a home playoff game, but I would really just like to see them return to the playoffs.  It has been too long and this year's team has the best shot I have seen from Central in a few years.  The advantage of playing at home is great, and really nice for the fans, but I have seen Central lose its share of home playoff games and win its share on the road.   I agree with Pat, conference strength is not the determining factor for home or road games.  I think to really make a strong impression and get a shot at a home game, you need to dominate teams most of the way through the season and have the best record against the team you are paired with.  Which team you play can be influenced by rankings, travel distance, multiple teams from one conference,etc.  Back in the day, Central did that year in and year out and it earned them a number of home playoff games.  These days the conference does not have that one continuously dominant team and the conference winner is more likely to go on the road for the playoffs.  But home or on the road it is the team that shows up and takes care of business that moves on.  Playing at home is just icing on the cake.


DBQ1965

Conference standings aside ... as a transplanted Californian who married an Illini, I would say the best D3 football in the nation is played in the Midwest ... Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio.  We are blessed.
Reality is for those who lack imagination 😀

Alfredeneumann

Aaron Kampman on Coach Ed Thomas
I believe his greatest legacy comes not in how many football games he won or lost but in the fact that he was a committed follower of Jesus Christ.

doolittledog

#41290
Nice bit of sleuthing to find that.  Love getting that info early.

Have done no historical research.  But next years schedule is the 1st I can remember where every team alternates home/away or away/home the whole season.  No one gets two straight home or away games.   

Interesting that Dubuque will play @ Luther and @ Central for the 2nd year in a row.  As well as get Simpson and Coe at home for the 2nd straight year. 

Also interesting that Dubuque ends @ Wartburg, Coe, @ Central.  That's quite the tough sledding to end the season. 
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

Klompen

Wow!  Here I was thinking playoff talk was way too early and we have next year's schedule already!  But since I am planning on next season more assuredly than the playoffs, I will take it! 

Seems the two big games pitting the conference undefeated teams against each other appear to be a toss up on the pick-ems side with most picking their own team to win.  No surprises there.  I will admit that I did my pick with my red shades on after the beating we took from UD last year.  Then again, this is a much more experienced and confident team than last year for Central.  I also like Central's win over Whitworth more than UD's win over Pacific.  Then again, last week exposed weaknesses and that is the tape that UD got to study and break down for preparation.  Glad to have the home field for only the second time this year. 

Go Dutch!

Klompen

Ouch, just looked at the front page story on "Predictions for Saturday".  Dubuque is an overwhelming favorite with the D3 gurus.  Guess that will keep us on our toes as when they predicted Central would be the team that wished they had stayed home the first week of the season.  As long as none of them are in Pella we have a shot.  The few times the D3 men show up in Pella the Dutch have a bad day.  Maybe we need to hide the red carpet we would normally roll out.   ;)

doolittledog

Halftime...

Dubuque leads Central 28-17
Coe leads Wartburg 17-10
Loras leads BVU 10-6
Luther and NWU tied 17-17
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."

doolittledog

Sure sign of the apocalypse.  Central Dutch half time show is sponsored by a brewery. 
Coach Finstock - "There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that and everything else is cream cheese."