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Messages - kiltedbryan

#1
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2020 NCAA Tournament
March 02, 2020, 01:37:28 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on March 02, 2020, 01:32:22 PM
Now that the bracket's out, here's an map of all the teams, grouped by bracket: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1jt77yEWHz76V0S_d5IwpjCbKnUWIBgvs&usp=sharing

This is great, Inkblot. +1
#2
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
February 29, 2020, 05:52:18 PM
In the NCAC, Wooster secures Pool A with a 87-63 dismantling of Wittenberg, sending the Tigers into Pool C at (I think) .929/.507/4-2.

Not really a bubble burster since Wooster was likely in even with a loss.
#3
Some unfortunate news out of Wooster, via twitter:

"Some sad news to share. As some of you already know, Justin Warnes '12 passed away on Thursday. "Warnesy" was a 3-year letterwinner, a key member of our 2011 national runner-up team, and a dear friend to many associated with our program." Obituary: https://www.newcomertoledo.com/Obituary/180687/Justin-Warnes/Toledo-OH

Justin Warnes was a tenacious defender, perhaps the best and most utilized defensive specialist Steve Moore ever had. His assignment was the opposition's best offensive player, and his strategy was to make that player earn every single point all night long, nothing easy. He knew his role and executed it to perfection.

Undoubtedly his signature game was in one of the best DIII games I've ever watched: the NCAA Elite Eight against Whitworth in 2011. Warnes's job? Contain Whitworth's consensus DIII National Player of the Year Michael Taylor. Taylor got his points that night, netting 25, but on 8-20 shooting (40%) vs. his 53% season average, and Taylor committed an uncharacteristic seven turnovers. Warnes was a huge part of making Taylor work all night. For added measure, Warnes himself went 4-5 from the field for 11 points, including one electrifying dunk early in the first half. (If you follow the link to Wooster's twitter account, the image in their post is of that dunk). It was one of only two games that season where Warnes touched double figures.
#4
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Big games today
January 22, 2020, 08:54:43 PM
Quote from: hopefan on January 22, 2020, 10:09:34 AM

***   OAC Mount Union H  (7 - 1) (12 - 3)       vs Marietta A  (8 - 0) (14 - 1)            

I'm not surprised Mount Union won, but cannot say I ever would've guessed the margin. Final from Alliance:

Marietta 70
Mount Union 107


Mount went 54% on 19-35 shooting from three vs. Marietta's 3-15 (20%) effort.
#5
Well, Mount Union wasn't able to manage a single-digit loss, or really even able to keep it close at all. Instead, the Raiders ran Marietta right out of the building, winning going away by *37*.

Marietta 70
Mount Union 107


Not a typo. Biggest difference on the stat sheet was 3-point shooting: Marietta was a paltry 3-15 (20%), while Mount Union hit 19-35 (54%). Marietta also was only 16-27 (59%) at the line.
#6
Yup, you're right, for a team lacking the national pedigree of other programs, the three losses to date probably keeps UMU anywhere from off the radar to just off their ballot. I do think that while you'd rather be 13-2 or 14-1, none of the three losses look completely terrible. The 'Berg one is probably the "worst," but no real surprise to drop one on the road in the OAC.

You're right they'll jump into the poll with a win over the Pios...and if they notch that one, their three best wins (vs. Albion, at Woo, vs. Marietta) would be impressive.
#7
Yup, this is the big one in OAC play - and major GL Regional implications, too. Plus I tend to think Mount Union is being somewhat overlooked in national Top 25 conversation. I'm biased since I got to see them flay my Wooster Scots back before Thanksgiving, but the data agrees with idea that UMU should be in national conversation: Matt Snyder's data has UMU 9th in his DIII efficiency rankings, Massey has them at #11 and with the 10th best SOS to date in the country.

Both Snyder and Massey have Marietta #2 in their rankings...Should be a fun one on Wednesday.
#8
Wittenberg falls from the ranks of the undefeated, losing 86-98 at Wooster. We're down to 2.
#9
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
January 18, 2020, 06:03:28 PM
Wittenberg 86
Wooster 98

Wooster turned in a masterpiece and blitzed Wittenberg right out of the gym in a game that surprisingly wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. The Scots went into the half up 52-33 then maintained a 20+ advantage until the final two minutes. A bit of sloppiness at the end narrowed the margin, but outcome was never in doubt.

Excellent win to burnish the future Pool C resume for the Scots.
#10
Wittenberg 86
Wooster 98

Scots put forth a shooting master class in front of 2,500+ at Timken gym in what could be Steve Moore's final home game against Wittenberg. Scots hit 63% overall and 54% from 3 to run away and hide from the Tigers.

Final score is closer than it was: Scots led 52-33 at half and maintained a 20+ point lead until the final 2 minutes when a couple turnovers and missed foul shots let Wittenberg narrow the final margin.

Wittenberg falls to 14-1, 7-1 NCAC. Scots improve to 13-2, 7-1 NCAC.
#11
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
January 17, 2020, 12:43:32 AM
Of course things will change going forward...that's the whole fun of this!  :)

I do think it's sensible to think about the Pool C SOS challenge Wittenberg could face, though. And it doesn't have to rely on the future, we can just look at the hole that's already been dug. What's happened has happened, and losses already incurred are staying on the books.

For example, let's compare Great Lakes and NCAC rivals Wooster and Wittenberg. In the regular season, they'll each have the same 18 NCAC games, so the SOS impact there is a draw (NCAC tourney will have an impact, but set that aside for now). The SOS differential will primarily come through their seven non-conference opponents. Those seven opponents' collective records to-date:

Wooster: 54-42 (.563)
Wittenberg: 36-63 (.364)

Ouch, Witt, ouch.

That 21-game loss column differential is the comparative "hole" Witt has going forward. In standings terms, Witt's opponents' record is 19.5 "games back" of Wooster's right now. Obviously "games back" is irrelevant to the Pool C selection criteria, but it maybe gives a better sense of the type of deficit Witt's SOS is facing compared to other teams with good SOS numbers. And for a sense of how challenging it would be for Witt's SOS to "catch up" to Wooster (or other strong national Pool C contenders...), consider if Wooster's non-conference opponents hold serve at .500 the rest of the way. To "catch" Wooster's opponents, Witt's would have to 40 games over .500 over approximately 75 games (7 teams * 10/11 games each). That's a future record such as 58-17 (.773), which is unlikely enough as it is, and doubly so when these teams have gone .364 across their first 100 games played.
#12
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
January 14, 2020, 04:34:46 PM
Quote from: sac on January 13, 2020, 04:49:15 PM
Quote from: KnightSlappy on January 13, 2020, 04:26:45 PM
I'm projecting Wittenberg to end up with a .504 SOS, so there's a very real chance that ends up below .500.

Currently projecting them to be heading into the conference tournament at .915/.504. As sac points out, RROs could be strong. If they make the NCAC finals, I do not see Pool C being a problem as the SOS will probably be a few points higher.

...but just win your conference AQ.

For those of us who've been around awhile, amazing to think 3 wins over Oberlin could help them.

Kinda wild both that Wittenberg has played only three .500+ teams so far, and that two of them are Oberlin (8-5) and Allegheny (9-4), with Hanover (10-3) as the more expected third.

In addition to playing some genuinely terrible teams, Witt's SOS must be feeling impact of a few traditionally OK-to-good squads on their schedule who have regressed this year, especially: Mt. St. Joseph (3-10 this year, 17+ wins the preceding 5 years); Eastern Mennonite (3-11 this year, usually .500ish or better the past decade); Ohio Northern (5-8 this year (1-5 OAC), also usually .500ish in past decade).
#13
Mount Union 77
Adrian 80

This is a genuine surprise. Adrian was picked last by the MIAA coaches in their preseason poll. Mount had a 10 point lead with 13 mins left in the second half, but that was the high-water mark. Raiders missed two last-second 3 point attempts that would've tied it.
#14
Hiram 70
Wooster 98

It was a 7-point game at the half (39-32), but Wooster piled in 59 second half points on 64% shooting to win going away. Hempy with 27, Tipton 14, Jaylen Franklin 13, Donate Williams 12, and 13 Scots put points on the board tonight.

For Hiram, Brodgie Gordon with 24, Jalen Kirksey 18.
#15
I'm looking forward to next week's Mount Union-Wooster tilt at Timken Gym. Should be an excellent early-season measuring stick for both teams. Winner picks up what could be a consequential win for regional rankings come February.