BB: Just Some Guy's West Region Rankings

Started by Just_Some_Guy, February 20, 2007, 11:09:24 PM

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Chapman vs Linfield

Chapman splits 4 games with Linfield
2 (40%)
Linfield sweeps
1 (20%)
Chapman sweeps
0 (0%)
Linfield takes 3 of 4
0 (0%)
Chapman takes 3 of 4
2 (40%)

Total Members Voted: 5

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: mideastfan on March 14, 2007, 01:04:14 PM
Marietta has beaten McMurry and UT-Dallas, and plays a split doubleheader today against HSU and Southwestern.  The competition is very good, and Marietta is holding their own during a "reloading"season.  Marietta never rebuilds, just reloads.  They lost 4 of their top 5 pitchers off last year's title team, but this year's squad is playing well so far.

Marietta did beat both McMurry and UT-Dallas and no doubt have a good team, but you also have to evaluate the situation. Granted, Marietta is playing only their 4th and 5th games of the year, but both ASC teams are coming off of 3 game sets over the weekend. Marietta needed 3 runs in the top of the 9th after facing McMurry's #4 pitcher; whereas, Marietta was throwing their #2 guy. Likewise, they were facing UT-Dallas' #4 versus their ace in Baumler. I'm not so much talking "down" to Marietta as much as I'm saying this McMurry team competed with a the #9 ranked team in the country with their #4 on the bump.

Merely something to think about.

Blackcat00

McMurry plays a really good schedule. That tournament usually brings some great northern teams to play in the warmer weather.

I didnt realize that the HBU series (NAIA) didnt count. Well hopefully they will make a stand in conference.






BTW I was saying Concordia is the only ASC team to make the world series in 02.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Blackcat00 on March 14, 2007, 11:00:02 PM
McMurry plays a really good schedule. That tournament usually brings some great northern teams to play in the warmer weather.

I didnt realize that the HBU series (NAIA) didnt count. Well hopefully they will make a stand in conference.

BTW I was saying Concordia is the only ASC team to make the world series in 02.
Good evening, Blackcat.  (Mexia HS is the Blackcats!   ;)  )

Concordia has the chance to play some snow birds when they come for Spring Training.  Austin is an easy city for air connections.

I hope that CUA can bring some northern teams down, maybe share a series of games with UMHB and maybe Southwestern or Schreiner.

Bearkat00

#63
Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 14, 2007, 11:11:42 PM

Good evening, Blackcat.  (Mexia HS is the Blackcats!   ;)  )

Pronounced Ma-hey-ya!  Not Mex-iya!  Thought I'd throw that out there!  ;)

utilitycat17

Quote from: Spence on Today at 12:36:32 am
I know this is going to sound like I'm just trying to down the Texas teams, but I'm not all that convinced that UT Dallas is that good either.

Their best starting pitcher has an ERA of almost 5. Waggoner's probably better than that though. The others just give up too many baserunners, especially considering some of the competition they've had. They've given up double digit runs 8 times...yes they've won some of those but against regional-caliber competition that doesn't happen very often. They only managed six singles off Baumler, Knowlton and Eschbaugh.

I guess with their schedule as it is I don't know if I'll ever be sold on UT Tyler this season.

Quote from Ralph Turner
Spence, with our (Texas') relative isolation, I think it will take the conference Pool A bid making it deep or very deep into the playoffs to get a good idea of how strong the ASC is this year.

Trinity dropped 3 of 4 to Millsaps yesterday, another chink in the proverbial armor.  I think that your skepticism is well-founded. 

The above is from a thread in the national section.

Quote from Utilitycat On Feb 22.
"I'm just a little curious why everyone seems so sold on giving the Texas schools so much credit.  No one from Texas has done anything in the last 10 years.  The one time a team from Texas actually got to the World Series they were 2 and out, and they probably weren't the best from the west that year anyway; Pomona was probably the better team in 2002 and Chapman got screwed from the playoffs all together that year because of Dallas.  My point here is that every year there are numerous schools in Texas that get off to good starts, but it never amounts to anything.  I would be much more inclined to give credit to a school like Cal State East Bay who has a fairly good track record over the last few years.  They always seem to be right in the mix at the end of the year.  I would not discount the teams from the SCIAC so easily.  Although none of them are real national contenders, they all have the ability to win big games against anyone.  If East Bay lost to Claremont its could mean that Claremont is being undervalued.  It shouldn't make us undervalue East Bay.  If you look at the SCIAC over the last 10 or so years the top 5 teams have always been able to beat the best in the country.  Whittier has a pretty good history against Chapman, Eastern Connecticut never fairs well against the SCIAC, and the same could be said for Montclair State and other top eastern powers.   

I would also give more value to some of the NWC teams.  Especially George Fox and Linfield.  Both of those teams are very good every year.  Especially George Fox but not excluding Linfield.  Granted everyone seems to agree that George Fox is one of the top two teams in the region right now, but I would think Linfield deserves more credit in the early going than some of the more unproven teams from Texas.

All I am saying is that especially in D3 baseball history can tell us a lot, sometimes more than the present can.  The top teams in the nation are the same year in and year out.  The same tends to be the case at the regional level as well.  Until we get a little deeper into the season and the teams from Texas prove their worth a little more I'm not sold so many of them deserve such high praise." 


I don't usually agree with Spence, but where was my support when I questioned the validity of the strength in Texas a month ago. 

In the last poll there were only 2 Texas teams in the top 7 in the region.  Are we backing off the bandwagon because now we can actually see history repeating itself, or was it simply not wanting to argue with Spence because he can be a bit much at times.

Ralph Turner

Arrgghhhh, I lost my DSL connection about 90% into a long post!

No I am not backing off of my prediction.  I still thinik that the ASC is competitive, but it is not at the Elite level. In the 2005 and 2006 West Regionals, Chapman had to play 2 games on the last day versus TLU to win the last 2 regionals. 

In 2006, TLU only finished 1 game ahead of 4th place McMurry in the ASC-West...talk about competitive balance!

I don't like to talk about "ordinal" numbers in discussing rankings at this level.  Depending on who is pitching there is huge variation day to day.  A #25 may more accurately be described as #19-#32 and #26 may be more accurately described as #21-#30, if you know what I mean.

As for elite level conferences, that might be the NJAC and maybe the WIAC.  Does John McGraw have a New York region powerhouse that he likes?  Can we call the LEC a powerhouse conference?  I agree that there are quality programs that re-appear every year.

If the ASC champion knocks out the NWC champion in the tourney, I won't make the blanket statement that the ASC is stronger than the NWC.  I will concede that the NWC may have 3 strong programs out of 9.  I also believe that the ASC has 6 strong programs out of 15.  A 15-member conference makes for a competitive post-season tourney.

At the risk of mis-reading the SCIAC, this is my first seeding for the West Regional.

Chapman, Pool B, hosting, again.
PLU, NWC Pool A bid.
TLU, ASC Pool A bid, (too much pitching).
ULV, especially if they get past CLU, Pool A bid from the SCIAC.

Fly-in 2 more teams.

I am skeptical that CSU-EB gets an at-large this year.  I think that Millsaps wins the SCAC and goes to the Central bracket.

Spence

If anyone submitted a bit for it, I think the regional could go to Texas this year. There should only be 3 teams from west coast in it, so they could fly in those 3 and drive-in two. They did a lot more shuffling teams around than usual last year. If Millsaps were to get a Pool C berth and someone else won the SCAC (especially if it were a TX school), then maybe the regional would go to Texas.

Maybe I'm just hoping.

I think CUA might still be a factor for the ASC. Will be interested to see how they do against Hardin-Simmons and McMurry. I was originally thinking that the SCAC entry could go to the Central, but it could just as easily go to the West, I guess.

The NJAC is a cut above as far as power conferences go. IMO if you win the NJAC, you are good enough to win the national title. It doesn't mean you will, but it means you have the ability to do so.

In the next tier IMO are the LEC, WIAC because if you win those leagues you've got a team clearly capable of winning a regional and doing well at the Series. The Dixie, with the OAC and the MIAC are not far below that. The SCIAC has also put more than one team in the Series, albeit not really lately. I think the ASC is probably in about the same category as the SCIAC -- some competitive programs that haven't often been good enough lately to win the region (though Chapman might have somethign to do with that).

It would be great if someone were to do power ratings for D-III in part to see how our perceptions of the best conferences matched up to reality, as well as for evaluating seedings.

Ralph Turner

Thanks Spence!  I am glad to read your assessment of power conferences.

ASC-West schedule

Team/record/April 5-6/April 13-14/ April 20-21

TLU    10-1 /  UMHB/ at SRSU/ Schreiner
UMHB 9-3 / at TLU/Schreiner/at CUA
CUA   8-4 / HSU/at McM/ UMHB
McM   8-4 / Schreiner/CUA/at HPU

BigPoppa

I know that the NCAA cannot afford to do it this way, but it seems to me that the #1 regional seeds should get to either host the regional or decide where it is played. I have nothing against Chapman(Have they been the #1 seed every year?) hosting at Hart Park every year as it is a great ballpark, but it would be nice for someone else to get a shot to host it.

I know that in 2005 Carthage was the #1 seed in the Central region and had to drive to Mississippi College to play the regional. What type of reward is an 18-hour bus ride for a #1 seed? Or maybe the regional locations should be pre-determined (Minor league parks, D1 college parks, etc...) and have a school listed as the host school taking care of the behind the scenes work like Oshkosh and Lawrence do every year for the World Series in Appleton.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Spence

Quote from: BigPoppa on April 03, 2007, 10:39:20 AM
I know that the NCAA cannot afford to do it this way, but it seems to me that the #1 regional seeds should get to either host the regional or decide where it is played. I have nothing against Chapman(Have they been the #1 seed every year?) hosting at Hart Park every year as it is a great ballpark, but it would be nice for someone else to get a shot to host it.

I know that in 2005 Carthage was the #1 seed in the Central region and had to drive to Mississippi College to play the regional. What type of reward is an 18-hour bus ride for a #1 seed? Or maybe the regional locations should be pre-determined (Minor league parks, D1 college parks, etc...) and have a school listed as the host school taking care of the behind the scenes work like Oshkosh and Lawrence do every year for the World Series in Appleton.

I kind of think the latter is what the NCAA is trying to work toward. Marietta hasn't hosted a regional in a while and it's beginning to look like they want more neutral sites to host it. But then they put it at Washington U. for some reason (yes I know the stated reason, doesn't mean I buy it), so go figure. Then there's Chapman. If it were back in the day when it was common for #1 seeds to host, then fine, Hart Park is as good a site as any. But when the rules seem to be different for different regions and team, then I think that's not good. It's more not good IMO in the West region where several teams are going to be a very long distance from home.

I'm fully aware of the possible perception of hypocrisy on this with regards to my loyalty to Marietta. Like I said, that was then, and it was common for schools with adequate facilities to host, and Marietta was one of the very few at that time that did have adequate facilities in the region. There are more now, but still few among the top programs that would actually be a home draw.

But with Auburn and Colonie being used in New York, Harwich in NE, Boyertown in M-A, the wheel of SALLY League parks in the South...it seems the effort is to get the regionals to neutral sites. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Chillicothe, OH host the Mideast regional sometime soon.

BigPoppa

Quote from: Spence on April 03, 2007, 01:42:09 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on April 03, 2007, 10:39:20 AM
I know that the NCAA cannot afford to do it this way, but it seems to me that the #1 regional seeds should get to either host the regional or decide where it is played. I have nothing against Chapman(Have they been the #1 seed every year?) hosting at Hart Park every year as it is a great ballpark, but it would be nice for someone else to get a shot to host it.

I know that in 2005 Carthage was the #1 seed in the Central region and had to drive to Mississippi College to play the regional. What type of reward is an 18-hour bus ride for a #1 seed? Or maybe the regional locations should be pre-determined (Minor league parks, D1 college parks, etc...) and have a school listed as the host school taking care of the behind the scenes work like Oshkosh and Lawrence do every year for the World Series in Appleton.

I kind of think the latter is what the NCAA is trying to work toward. Marietta hasn't hosted a regional in a while and it's beginning to look like they want more neutral sites to host it. But then they put it at Washington U. for some reason (yes I know the stated reason, doesn't mean I buy it), so go figure. Then there's Chapman. If it were back in the day when it was common for #1 seeds to host, then fine, Hart Park is as good a site as any. But when the rules seem to be different for different regions and team, then I think that's not good. It's more not good IMO in the West region where several teams are going to be a very long distance from home.

I'm fully aware of the possible perception of hypocrisy on this with regards to my loyalty to Marietta. Like I said, that was then, and it was common for schools with adequate facilities to host, and Marietta was one of the very few at that time that did have adequate facilities in the region. There are more now, but still few among the top programs that would actually be a home draw.

But with Auburn and Colonie being used in New York, Harwich in NE, Boyertown in M-A, the wheel of SALLY League parks in the South...it seems the effort is to get the regionals to neutral sites. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Chillicothe, OH host the Mideast regional sometime soon.

In the past you had to bid for the regional. I am not sure if you still do today. I think the NCAA needs to have set criteria to host, whether it be the #1 seed or top facility of the teams in the region or even a neutral site. I just think it is too subjective to leave until the last minute to announce where it is being played.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Spence

Well I know some of the sites are classified as predetermined sites (most of them, actually), but I think there still has to be a bid put in by a regional school or conference to act as the host.

Even if the West isn't predetermined, I would have to think there would be some countermomentum against Chapman hosting again this year, even if they are the #1 seed. With probably only 3 teams coming from the Pacific Time Zone (and one of those flying regardless of where the regional is, unless it's in Oregon), this seems like a good year for it to be possible. The thing that might keep it from happening is the virtual certainty that schools are going to have to be sent west to fill the Central region. Normally the natural thing to do would be to have Millsaps/Rhodes go north to fill those spots, but they might be forced to go west and have teams from further east go to the Central. Both the West and Central look to be short teams this year, which to me increases the likelihood that the West Regional will be in Texas.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: BigPoppa on April 03, 2007, 10:39:20 AM
I have nothing against Chapman(Have they been the #1 seed every year?) hosting at Hart Park every year as it is a great ballpark, but it would be nice for someone else to get a shot to host it.

Last year the Redlands (0-2) was the #1 seed going into the West Region.  They did not have lights at their field. Texas Lutheran does not have lights at their field either.  I had heard that Trinity might've tried to put in a bid last year, but I think it more or less went to Chapman by default.  The West does look short on teams this year.  It might be a four team regional again with Chapman and the winner of the three West conferences.  I just can't really see Trinity or Cal State East Bay getting bids out there this year. MAYBE the ASC gets a pool C bid, but where would the 6th team come from?

BigPoppa

Spence-

One factor in the Central Region has to be the CCIW. If Carthage wins the CCIW (which I think they will) and Augustana finishes with a great record, you have to assume that both get in (Not counting the 31-10 Augie teams left out last year). Mix in the IIAC winner (Wartburg), SLIAC winner (Webtser?) and the NATHcon winner(Pool B... most likely Aurora) and possibly Washington U  (UAA  team with a great record and based in St. Louis in the Central Region), and that leaves one spot open in the Central Region for a team like Millsaps to be pushed north into the Central Region.

The restructuring of conferences (NIAC and LMC becoming the NATHcon)certainly changes things in BOTH the Central and the Midwest. More teams added into the Central region by leaving the Midwest region. It should make for a great run for the bids in early May.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Ralph Turner

IMHO, there may a given number of conferences in the Evaluation Regions, but I think that the "500-mile bus ride rule" is more significant in seeding the brackets.

The NAthCon will give us one Pool A bid (essentially the former LMC's bid) and give us several more numbers in the numerator towards a Pool C bid, at the expense of Pool B.