FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

Started by admin, August 16, 2005, 05:13:40 AM

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jknezek

I didn't say that Wabash was the "best" defense in Division 3.  Wabash had some impressive defensive stats last year and was first in a number of categories including total defense.    Because Wabash plays in the NCAC which not does have the overall strength of the WIAC, generating good stats is easier to a degree.  No question that Wabash didn't have its best day against Wittenberg last year, but those stats are in the overall numbers. 

UWW had a great defense  and obviously got the job done.  I wouldn't argue with your characterization of UWW's defense.

I was commenting on BashGiant's post.  From a statistical standpoint, BashGiant is correct.  Wabash did have impressive statistics last year, including being number 1 in all NCAA divisions in two statistical categories.  Defense is clearly an area of strength for Wabash and will be for the upcoming season.  Wabash also gets its two top running backs back having recovered from their injuries last season, including Holmes who ground out the yards and burned off the clock in the fourth quarter in the 2012 game with Witt and kept them off the field.  It also brings back a quarterback with a season's experience under his belt along with two top notch back ups.

The game between Hampden Sydney and Wabash will be a good test for both teams.  Barring the unknowns like the injuries that Wabash suffered last year, both teams should be ready for another a successful season and a run in the playoffs.

jknezek

No you didn't. I quoted you but the root goes back to BashGiant's post. No big deal. #1 in total defense definitely means a lot, regardless of opponent. To be fair, I wonder about HSC's offensive stats the same way I wonder about Wabash's defensive ones. In my opinion neither unit really proved itself elite versus the rare elite competition they faced last year. However, both units proved themselves very, very good versus their regular competition. It should be an interesting game. Still too far away for me to care too much about, especially since I don't really have a dog in the fight...

HSCTiger fan

JK I'm sure you'll point to a 2nd half sputter in offense but most consider Linfield as a so called "elite" team and defense. HSC had 18 First downs, averaged 5.8 yards per play, and had 415 yards of offense against "elite" Linfield. That's more more first downs and total yards than UWW had against Linfield. The week prior against Maryville a team I assume you are calling a  "regular competitor", HSC had 23 first downs, averaged 5.3 yards per play and 417 yards of offense. So you don't feel the HSC offense "proved" itself against against an elite defense or you don't consider Linfield elite?  What am I missing?
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

jknezek

We've discussed the Linfield game. HSC fans take full game stats view and that is what I would do as well if I was a Tigers fan. However, it's hard not to consider that game in two pieces. The first 18 minutes where Linfield laid a ridiculous egg and HSC took advantage, and the next 42 minutes where Linfield was in complete control and stoned HSC while orchestrating a large comeback. Yes, while Linfield looked like the Keystone Cops HSC racked up a lot of yards, but as soon as Linfield got their heads out of their rears, HSC went pretty much nowhere and scored no points.

If HSC was really that offensively talented, a purely D3 elite offensive team, they wouldn't have spent 2/3rds of the game without scoring a point. HSC's last 10 drives went for a total of 98 yards! They didn't average a first down! In the last 3 drives, when HSC needed something, anything, they went for a total of -5 yards. HSC was very, very good, but the fact remains that once Linfield decided they were going to play actual football, HSC never scored again and truly struggled to move the ball. You are hard pressed to say HSC looked like an elite offense against Linfield outside those first 18 minutes.

Maryville is a very good team. Playoff caliber certainly. But they ranked 93rd in total defense playing a mostly USASC schedule. A little better than mid-pack defense in a little worse than mid-pack conference. Sure HSC put 70 more yards on them then their season average, but HSC was also playing at home. It's not like the game was a huge statistical anomaly. Good D3 teams routinely put up 400 yards on opponents.

Again, HSC was very, very good. But were they elite in D3 on offense? Not in my mind.

Scots13

Hey now, jk. Let's be fair. MC might have ranked 93rd in total defense last season, and the USAC might not be a power conference, but they did have some dang good offenses.

Total offense
1. Methodist
2. Huntingdon
38. LaGrange (LaGrange had number one passing offense)

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HSCTiger fan

You say HSC's offense is not elite. I say what offensive team is?  Mt. Union with 348 in total offense in the championship game?  Wesley with 316 yards of offense against Rowan?  Bethel with 406 yards of offense against 5-5 Augsburg?  If elite is top 10 - I'd say HSC certainly would have to be in the conversation.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

jknezek

#17211
Quote from: Scots13 on July 23, 2014, 05:11:13 PM
Hey now, jk. Let's be fair. MC might have ranked 93rd in total defense last season, and the USAC might not be a power conference, but they did have some dang good offenses.

Total offense
1. Methodist
2. Huntingdon
38. LaGrange (LaGrange had number one passing offense)

OK, here's my question because, again, these stats don't exist in a vacuum. We know the USASC is a middle of the road conference, right? There just isn't much debate about that. So what is more likely, 3 of the most potent offenses in the country exist in a single mediocre conference, or that mediocre conference has three pretty good offensive teams and a whole lot of bad defense? Because if the offenses for these three teams were really top tier for D3, why would these three teams have gone 4-4 in out of conference games?

Stats have to be thought about in their context, not just in their absolutes. That is extremely important when dealing with D3 with so little crossover. For example, W&L had the #2 rushing attack in the country. Pretty good right? Umm... not that great when you consider they never throw. Springfield had the #1 rushing attack. They must be a power right? We know rushing leads to opening up defenses right? Not really, they hardly ever throw either. That stat, like others that have been tossed around here, just aren't relevant without context.

As for HSC being an elite offense last year, it's just a stretch for me. You can be very good and not be elite, which HSC was. Against an elite defense that finally played the last 42 minutes of the Linfield game HSC literally went nowhere. It's right there in the game stats. That's not a knock on HSC being very good, but you can't go 42 minutes of a game against an elite team and get less than 100 yards and say you have an elite offense. It's just common sense. Was HSC good? Very good? Yes to both. Were they the top 2 or 3% offense in D3? The top 10 teams? No. Gaudy stats against mediocre competition doesn't confer elite status. Elite stats against very good and elite competition gives you elite status.

If you want to play with stats, HSC finished 31st in total offense. Very, very good. Top 10% of D3. Teams above them that played better competition consistently? Mount, Heidelberg, Morrisville St, Johns Hopkins, Wis-Platteville, North Central, Linfield, UMHB, Bethel, Hardin-Simmons, Gettysburg, ETBU, Augsburg, and John Carroll. All 14 of these teams played in a better conference and had more total offense. HSC finished 75th in 3rd down conversions. That's behind 3 teams in the ODAC alone. 39th in passing completions. Yeah, they throw a lot and they are good at it, but are they top 10 good? No. Did you know HSC tied for 216th for interceptions? They throw a lot, so in context it's understandable, but is it elite to finish that low in an offensive stat?

How about flat out passing offense? That's what the Tigers are known for so they must be top 10, right? No. They are an extremely good 18th, but not top 10. Teams like Wis-Platteville, John Carroll, Dubuque, and ETBU all ranked higher against consistently better competition.

What is the point of all this? Not much. HSC is incredibly good offensively. Are they elite? I think there is ample evidence to suggest they weren't one of the 10 best teams in the country last year. Will they be this year? Don't know, but they have an awfully good shot. At the end of the year we can revisit, but you have Tiger blinders on if you ignore the losses to CNU and Shenandoah and you don't realize what actually happened in the Linfield game. Does that take away from HSC's brilliant season and the huge win against Maryville? No. But it doesn't make them elite either unless you make elite large enough to be a distinction without meaning.

Elite teams are truly special across all of D3. I just don't believe HSC is there. Last year they were the best in the ODAC and got a very favorable match up for a 2 loss team. We probably aren't having this conversation if they travel to Hobart, Wesley, UMU, JHU, UMHB or any of the other places a 2 loss team from the ODAC has typically gone. A very good team and a dash of luck, it made for a great season.

Pat Coleman

Quote from: jknezek on July 23, 2014, 08:30:52 PM
Quote from: Scots13 on July 23, 2014, 05:11:13 PM
Hey now, jk. Let's be fair. MC might have ranked 93rd in total defense last season, and the USAC might not be a power conference, but they did have some dang good offenses.

Total offense
1. Methodist
2. Huntingdon
38. LaGrange (LaGrange had number one passing offense)

OK, here's my question because, again, these stats don't exist in a vacuum. We know the USASC is a middle of the road conference, right? There just isn't much debate about that.

Actually --- middle of the road is a stretch. There is some debate as to whether they actually make it to middle of the road.
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Quote from: jknezek on July 23, 2014, 08:30:52 PM
OK, here's my question because, again, these stats don't exist in a vacuum. We know the USASC is a middle of the road conference, right? There just isn't much debate about that. So what is more likely, 3 of the most potent offenses in the country exist in a single mediocre conference, or that mediocre conference has three pretty good offensive teams and a whole lot of bad defense? Because if the offenses for these three teams were really top tier for D3, why would these three teams have gone 4-4 in out of conference games?

Stats have to be thought about in their context, not just in their absolutes. That is extremely important when dealing with D3 with so little crossover. For example, W&L had the #2 rushing attack in the country. Pretty good right? Umm... not that great when you consider they never throw. Springfield had the #1 rushing attack. They must be a power right? We know rushing leads to opening up defenses right? Not really, they hardly ever throw either. That stat, like others that have been tossed around here, just aren't relevant without context.

As for HSC being an elite offense last year, it's just a stretch for me. You can be very good and not be elite, which HSC was. Against an elite defense that finally played the last 42 minutes of the Linfield game HSC literally went nowhere. It's right there in the game stats. That's not a knock on HSC being very good, but you can't go 42 minutes of a game against an elite team and get less than 100 yards and say you have an elite offense. It's just common sense. Was HSC good? Very good? Yes to both. Were they the top 2 or 3% offense in D3? The top 10 teams? No. Gaudy stats against mediocre competition doesn't confer elite status. Elite stats against very good and elite competition gives you elite status.

Well done and +k
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jknezek

Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 23, 2014, 09:17:49 PM
Quote from: jknezek on July 23, 2014, 08:30:52 PM
Quote from: Scots13 on July 23, 2014, 05:11:13 PM
Hey now, jk. Let's be fair. MC might have ranked 93rd in total defense last season, and the USAC might not be a power conference, but they did have some dang good offenses.

Total offense
1. Methodist
2. Huntingdon
38. LaGrange (LaGrange had number one passing offense)

OK, here's my question because, again, these stats don't exist in a vacuum. We know the USASC is a middle of the road conference, right? There just isn't much debate about that.

Actually --- middle of the road is a stretch. There is some debate as to whether they actually make it to middle of the road.


I'm willing to give the conference a couple steps up from two or three years ago. Maryville and Methodist are much improved, Huntingdon is no joke, and CNU might have taken a step or two back but they are a quality team as well. Lagrange isn't bad either. There isn't a power team so far, but the conference is better than I remember it ever being in the last 5 or so years. There are more than a few conferences I'd put behind the USASC at this point.

HSCTiger fan

It's my opinion that way too many people buy the hype about the toughness of some of these so called power conferences. JK you mention Linfield in the teams that consistently plays better competition. Really?  Against the 8 non-playoff teams Linfield played in 2013 the average score was 58 to 12. I cannot see last year's RMC, Maryville, or CNU not being better than at least 5 or 6 of these teams. Linfield beat Puget Sound and Lewis and Clark by a combined 163 to 10. How tough were they?  Most of the teams they play don't think they have a chance BEFORE kickoff.  There was not a game played by any 2 opponents in the ODAC last year where each team did not think they could win.  HSC seems to beat the hell out of Guilford every year. But I bet the Quakers are looking forward to coming to Farmville this year. Hasa am I right?  If for no other reason than the belief that each team has that they can win makes the ODAC a better conference than the NWC and many other conferences. 

You also mentioned Mount Union, Heidelberg, Morrisville St, Johns Hopkins, Wis-Platteville, North Central, UMHB, Bethel, Hardin-Simmons, Gettysburg, ETBU, Augsburg, and John Carroll in supporting you position of non-elite status for the Tigers' offense.  The fact is of these teams only Bethel, Hardin Simmons, and Augsberg, had a tougher strength of schedule than HSC in 2013 according to D3 Football's rankings.  Which offense would you rather face HSC or Augsberg?

Maybe in your mind we are just a very good offense in a mediocre league. I don't think anyone other than UWW, MU, and UMHB are elite. There are 20 to 30 teams that can beat anyone else and HSC is in that mix. No one likes facing a HSC offense.  How much film do you think Wabash's coaches have watched?  My bet is not enough.  Call it elite, very good, great in an average league, it doesn't matter.  Football ain't a math test. Sometimes passion triumphs over logic. 

When they interviewed Russell Wilson after the Super Bowl last year he said all year he kept saying to his teammates "Why not us?".  Well... Why not HSC. Why not the ODAC? 

Here are a few of the so called "power" conference playoff records the past 3 years:

NWC - 5 wins 6 losses Linfield has all of those wins but only 2 victories against any team other than a first round rematch
CC - 1 win 5 losses
ASC - MHB is awesome but the other conference teams have gone 1-2 in the last 3 years
OAC - Mt Union is simply ridiculous but the rest of the OAC is 2-3 with first round exits each of the last 2 years.
NJAC 2 wins 5 losses
CCIW - North Central has done great 5-3 but the rest? 1 win 3 losses
ODAC? 1-3. Not great but is it really that bad by comparison?
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

wally_wabash

Probably worth noting that the SOS rankings are not a D3football thing but an NCAA thing. And it is a so-so metric at best. Particularly as we get more and more leagues playing 8-9 conference games and we get fewer and fewer non-league games to help that data mean something when comparing across conferences and regions.
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HSCTiger fan

That's cool. But it's the only tool I'm aware of that offers a level of objectivity to a substantially subjective topic.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

HSCTiger74

After reading the last couple of pages, I'm put in mind of Mark Twain's take on the subject.   ;)
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jknezek

Quote from: HSCTiger74 on July 24, 2014, 02:18:48 AM
After reading the last couple of pages, I'm put in mind of Mark Twain's take on the subject.   ;)

To be fair Mark Twain never had to suffer through a very long D3 offseason!  ;D