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Messages - Polly Math

#1
Meanwhile, back in the present.  Pretty gruesome loss for F&M last night. They dominated for 30 minutes with Federici looking great and Dickinson barely hanging in, thanks largely to the play of reserve guard Mike Hinckley, who seemed to have swallowed a bottle of Adam Honig pills before the game. F&M seemed to have things well in hand with a 12 point lead with 10 to go when they started jacking up 3s.  Looking for the dagger, I guess.  Must have missed 5 or 6 in a row, then started turning it over and rapidly the 11 pt lead became a 4 pt deficit.  F&M battled back to tie it at the 2 minute mark but could not close.   It looked like the Dips ran out of gas.  Their field goal % in the last ten minutes must have been in the 15% range.   Congrats to Dickinson for making the finals for the 4th time in 5 years. 

THE nightcap was your typical 4-5 vs 1 seed game.  Ursinus fought hard for a half but Swat's size, toughness and fresher legs were too much in the 2d.  Some of the Bears looked a little rattled at the raucous environment.  The exception was Knowles, who closed his career with a magnificent performance.   Ursinus will be back.  The announcers pointed out that the 4-5 seed has not only never won the tournament, they have never even made the finals.  Tough to perform on one night's rest when your opponent has had 7, is at home, and has the best regular season record. 

Congrats to Swat for a great atmosphere.  Looks like the Swat community has decided that winning mens basketball is not such a terrible  thing after all.  Logic says Swat should crush Dickinson.  They are bigger, stronger, shoot better, have the best player in Wiley and rebound extremely well.   The  factor in Dickinson's favor is their team quickness, also after a season with several improbable late comeback wins, they won't panic if they find themselves down.  But you have to make Swat a huge favorite to take their first Centennial championship.

#2
If anyone at Washington was cheering when Coach Nugent left they haven't had much to cheer about since. Just went an impressive 3-15 in conf. play.   Nugent was a decent coach and fine man who won when he had players, and lost when he didn't. McClary at Muhlenberg was a different case -- no doubt that he had plenty of talent in the 2012-14 years and could have won a title.  People can debate why he didn't.   My own take is that it may have been a mistake to build the whole attack around a brilliant but erratic and temperamental scoring guard who had trouble delivering the goods in big games.  Had they pulled out a few more playoff wins all would have been well.  But by the end of 2014 season when they collapsed late in the season and folded late at McDaniel in the play-in game it was pretty clear that the wheels were coming off.   Recruits looking to play in the Centennial for "established" had F&M, JH and Dickinson to consider.  Those wanting the hungry up and coming scene had Swat. 
#3
I was all set to nominate Hopkins as my favorite to host this year when they went to Dickinson and blew a ten point lead in the second half on Saturday.  Barring a major collapse it looks like the playoff teams are set, although the order of finish and who hosts is totally up for grabs.  We will find out more about Swat in the next week as they host Ursinus and Hopkins.  Both teams have the size to compete down low and can shoot.  On a good day, Ursinus can really shoot.  The top 4 teams (Swat, Ursinus, Hopkins, F&M) all look very similar: good not great post players, good team rebounding, 2 or even 3 outside shooters, well-drilled at both ends of the floor.  Not much star quality, but  "sound."   Dickinson is the joker in the pack, as they rely on ball hawking for steals and fast break transition to score.  But the top teams in the conference (except apparently Hopkins) can pass and handle well enough to cope. 
#4
Except for Bill Nelson, Seretti is about the last coach in the conference you would expect to lose his temper and get a T.  Pretty cool customer.  It was a smart move.  Can't have your best player out because he lost his temper in garbage time. 

And for all the arm waving, Robinson is pretty good at figuring out where the ref's limit is, and staying behind it. 

Still say F&M got the better whistles.  Dickinson got hit with several off ball fouls (and F&M had one or two) that suggested that the one ref did not approve of the concept of boxing out.  Not saying the game was unfair. Not at all.  But the home teams in this conference generally get the slight edge from the zebras. Of course, none of them think so!

#5
I was watching from across the way; Seretti was practically at the mid-court circle.  That has to be a double T. But it also looked to me like he was trying to get he ref away from his player, because Wright was still fuming and looked like he might do something really regrettable if the ref came closer.  Seretti was smiling as he left the floor and apologized to the ref -- I think he knew what he was doing all along and it worked, because Wright is their best player and is available to play on Saturday. Had Seretti just watched...maybe not.   I didn't see any flop; Wright got clobbered and resented the no call.  I suspect the 45-22 disparity in free throws awarded added to his frustration.  He'll learn.  That's life in the Centennial Conference -- don't be expecting a lot of calls if you are the visiting team anywhere.   

Dickinson looked to me like a fast talented but inconsistent (i.e.,young) team.  5 minutes of excellence followed by 5 minutes of sloppy.  Ball hawking defense comes and goes.  They are also hurt by a lack of rebounding heft. F&M was up 13 with 10 to go and Dickinson looked dreadful.  I was amazed that Dickinson got it to OT.   

F&M took their foot off the gas a little early -- that would have been a really painful loss.  Kudos to Federici for a refuse to lose performance in OT.  Three treys in a row pretty much ended the dispute. 

#6
I've seen guys who had lots of steals and were terrible defenders.  They fly out into the passing lane and occasionally get a steal.  the rest of the time they fly out, get nothing, and now its 5 against 4 for the next 6 seconds.  Not saying that applies to Federici, who generally plays within himself, but I don't think of him as a great defender.  The top offensive weapon on a team rarely is, since they are usually instructed to avoid foul trouble, and have to defend with some caution, at least until later in the game.
#7
Hoopguru:  Gotcha -- I am not going to restart the debate about why Ursinus didn't have more success in the first half of this decade. I wasn't on the board then but there is lots of commentary about it if you page back on this forum.   My take: Ward was a good forward, but F&M and Dickinson and Hopkins had better ones, and more of them.   Either way, its spilt milk now.   

Ursinus made my point for me last night, by shooting 50% from the field and winning on a night when they were 20% from the 3 pt line.  That what happens when you own the glass.   Coach said last year that Ursinus was going back to basics in how they recruit and play, and it is clearly paying off.   There is also a lot to like about Dickinson, they are fast and aggressive and make life miserable for opposing guards, but they got outplayed in the paint, and a team that has interior passing and shoots from 2 feet will more often than not beat a team that swings the ball and shoots from 20 feet. 

Anyway, should be an exciting tourney.  Most years there are 2, maybe 3 teams that have a legit shot at taking the trophy.  Looks like this year there will be 5.  Hopkins smacked Swat in Baltimore last night,  and for all their early season woes, F&M has won 2 straight and plays Swat on Saturday.   Things could get very interesting very soon. 

#8
Cent Fan:  I was actually thinking of Brett Cohen at Haverford, a very good forward who was much overlooked.   I hadnt forgot Liddic, who holds the conference rebound record and probably will for some time, but he is a little further back down the timeline.  You could throw in McNally (F&M) and Dolan (Dickinson) if we are going back to the 2010 time frame. 

Hoopguru:  Many of the guys mentioned were not your immobile "one foot in the paint" bigs -- Gyokchian and Wixted did a lot of their damage from the three point line, as well as the post, and Bugarinovic and Cohen had nice mid-range jumpers. They were versatile scorers and rebounders and good rim protectors.  Even guys like Kevin Hargrove or Jon Ward did not have outside scoring range and were more pure post players -- but I still think if they were in the league now they would be feasting.  If younger versions of any of these guys (or the other guys I mentioned) showed up on any Centennial campus today I doubt they would advised to try cross country or volleyball.  Basketball hasnt changed that much.     
#9
I hate to jump on the "Conference is down!" bandwagon, since when posters say that it usually means "[the team I follow in the] Conference is down!" -- but looking around there seems to be a significant fall off from 2-3 years ago when the Centennial had 3 teams nationally ranked.   The problem is a lack of talented bigs.  4 years ago we had Gyokchian, Salandra and Moune (F&M); Wixted and Collins (Dickinson); Bugarinovic and McEntire (JH); Zurn (Gettysburg); Hargrove (Muhlenberg); Goldberg (Haverford); Ward (Ursinus); Pupelis (McDaniel) -- and I am probably forgetting some guys.  Some of these guys were better than others, but they were all at least pretty good D3 bigs -- and some were a lot more than that.  Today the best big in the conference looks like Walsh at Swat, and while he is a nice player I would put him in the middle of the pack of the guys mentioned above.   It's too bad, because the overall level of guardplay in the conference is actually better than it was.  Swat, JH, Ursinus all have multiple guys who can shoot out the lights, F&M has Federici, and Dickinson doesn't shoot well but has the best on ball defensive guards in the league.  Maybe things will improve next year.  If you know of a 6'7" or taller kid who can play with his back to the basket,  please pass his name to the program of your choice!
#10
A little early to be writing off F&M.  They are the defending champs.  They have one of the the best, if not the best offensive players in the conference.  Their play in the paint has not been up to the accustomed standard but it should improve, and the standard of post play in the conference as a whole is not where it was 3-4 years ago, so it may not hurt them too badly.  Also their coach has seen a thing or two, so I'm told. 

I would also hold off naming the Swat Coach as the "top coach in the conference."  I can think of 4 current conf. coaches that have won multiple conference titles and gone on deep tournament runs.   I admire the job Coach K has done in turning things around at Swat but to date he has one playoff win.   Lotsa ball to be played, and I would be shocked if any team is a clear favorite when the playoffs start.
#11
A workmanlike job by F&M, Gettysburg came out fast but F&M weathered the early flurry and took control.  Eggers provided a spark and Moune made the Bullets pay for leaving him alone at the foul line, nailing jumper after jumper in the first half.  Gettysburg battled but F&M was never in danger in the 2d.  Refs let the teams play.

Much more interesting was the Swat win.  !st half Dickinson regressed to their bad early season self, with listless defense and  pointless fouls.  Swat shot well and pushed the lead out to 15 before Dickinson woke up and started defending hard late in the first half.  Game was tied by 10 min. mark in the 2d but Swat held off Devils with strong post play by Walsh, and good FT shooting.  Refs called the game very close (Swat had 33 FTs) which helped Swat hold Dickinson at bay as the game got close.  Still, Dickinson had the ball down 2 with 22 secs left and for some reasons came out of the timeout and Angradi launched a tightly contested  3 with 16 secs. left.  Way off, Swat rebounded and made 2 fts to put it out of reach.  Even if the shot  went in it was a bad play as Swat had plenty of time to come down the floor for a shot at the win.  Thought they would hold the ball to the 8 sec. mark and drive Hinnenkamp at the rim to score or dish like they did against F&M last week. The announcers were baffled and so was I.  Don't know if that was the play drawn up or something went wrong but either way a tough end to Dickinson's cinderella ride. 

I thought Dickinson vs. F&M had the makings of a classic final matchup of speed vs power.  Sorry but I don't feel that way about Swat. THeir discipline, strong fundamentals, and shooting range will prevent a blowout but unlike Dickinson, F&M has a strong front court that can defend the rim.   If the refs call the game tight that will help Swat stay close, otherwise its F&M pulling away and winning by double digits as Swat's 3 point shooters tire in the second half .     
#12
Saw the Dickinson v F&M game on video. Heckuva game.  Its always tempting after a close loss to pick out a questionable call against you and think you would have won if only the came had been "correctly" called.  There were some tough calls both ways but that didnt decide the game.  F&M actually shot pretty well from the line, which has not been their trademark in the past.  The crucial plays I saw were Seretti's decision at the end of regulation to trust the freshman Wright instead of Hinnenkamp or Angradi to take the last shot, and F &M with 2 bad turnovers on the baseline late  in OT. 

F&M is  still the clear favorite in the playoffs, but Dickinson might be the most dangerous 13-12 team in the country.  Kudos to them -- it would have been easy when they were 2-9 to pack it in and hang a "rebuilding" sign on the season. 

The F&M announcers were practically salivating for a Dickinson v. F&M final.   Can't blame them, but some other teams may have something to say about that.
#13
Actually, no.  Dickinson clinched the 3 seed by beating F&M.  Gettysburg and Dickinson both split with F&M, but Gettysburg lost to Swat 2x. Dickinson split with Swat.  Gettysburg would have the tiebreaker with Dickinson only if Dickinson lost to F&M.  So the playoff seeds are set, and McDaniel travels to Gettysburg Wednesday night.   I would expect the Gettysburg bench to see a lot of action against Ursinus on Monday night. 
#14
Best I can do:     F&M and Swat are set at 1 and 2.  Muhlenberg and Ursinus are out.  Hopkins gets in only if Gettysburg loses to McDaniel and Ursinus and Hopkins beats Wash Coll.   Dickinson has the tiebreak over McDaniel (because Dickinson beat Swat) but not Gettysburg, so if Gettysburg wins out and Dickinson loses at F&M, Gettysburg gets the 3 seed and Dickinson falls to the 4 seed. If Dickinson beats F&M or McDaniel beats Gettysburg, Dickinson is the 3 seed.  If Gettysburg beats McDaniel they lock up the 4 seed with a chance to get to 3 by beating Ursinus on Monday.  If McDaniel beats Gettysburg then McDaniel locks up the 4, with Dickinson the 3 and Gettysburg the 5.   

Think thats right.  So the games to watch for playoff seeding purposes on Sat. are, in order of importance:   (1) McDaniel v. Gettysburg;(2) Dickinson v. F&M; (3) Hopkins v. Wash Coll.     

Good night.

#15
Tonight in Baltimore was another in the ongoing  line of Dickinson vs Hopkins nailbiting classics.  Although much of the lineups have changed, the game felt  similar to last years championship game.  Dickinson outplayed Hopkins and led big with 10 mins to go. Hopkins then mounted a furious rally that fell just short, and the game ended on a missed Hopkins 3 for the win.   

Dickinson clinches a playoff berth with the win and has a shot at the 3 seed due to the Gettysburg loss.  Pretty amazing considering where they were 3 weeks ago.  Hopkins now needs to win out and get help to make the playoffs.