MBB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

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Pat Coleman

Quote from: lmitzel on August 09, 2017, 02:54:13 PM
Thinking about it, I went to look at North Central's attendance numbers, and they're all rounded to the nearest 25. For a lot of programs, I get it; the SID's have a lot on their plates as it is (and far be it from me to criticize my own school's attendance policy). But going back to this past season, NCC averaged 466 people a night. Sounds about right, having worked all but one of the home games last year (incidentally, the least attended one, but whatever.) But looking game by game I do question the numbers.


  • 12/3 vs IWU: 450
  • 1/4 vs Augie: 1000
  • 1/7 vs NPU: 425

I'm sure the Augie number is at least close to right; Augie fans always travel well. But so do Titan fans. I remember the stands being packed for both games, and to say that there were less than half the number who attended the IWU game as the Augie game is an absurd notion, especially when you consider the IWU game was on a Saturday and the Augie game was on a Wednesday. Similar thing with the North Park game a few days after the Augie game. I wouldn't be surprised if it got less than the Augie game, but not less than half, especially on a Saturday.


The IWU game was in December, too, though. First year with conference games in December, and I bet that has an impact as well.
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newCCIWfan

Quote from: AndOne on August 09, 2017, 05:25:14 PM
Quote from: newCCIWfan on August 08, 2017, 04:00:38 PM
Quote from: lmitzel on August 08, 2017, 02:56:32 PM
The NCAA released attendance figures from the 2016-17 season. The CCIW ranked third in D3 in average attendance, with three schools finishing in the top 30 across D3.

Another year, another NCAA attendance report which is absolutely meaningless at the D3 level.
Quote from: newCCIWfan on August 09, 2017, 01:30:02 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on August 09, 2017, 11:29:03 AM
I kind of see the point. At the DIII level, so many times attendance numbers are guestimates by an SID... if they are even reported in the first place.

I would argue that the top attendance programs are far more accurate and far more realistic... that's because I figure most of those schools probably have actual ways to tabulate their attendance with an actual number. It just matters where in the list does that number start to be flawed.

By the way, I've never looked into this, but these numbers are home games, right? They don't take into account away games, do they? If they take into account away games, then my argument is the numbers are very flawed.

Completely agree --- my favorite story of D3 attendance figures is Franklin College in the HCAC

2013-14 ... Record: 10-16 ... Attendance: 12,150 (1,105 per game) (#6 in D3)
2014-15 ... Record: 5-19 ... Attendance: 10,990 (845 per game) (#24 in D3)
2015-16 ... Record: 4-21 ... Attendance: 9,240 (840 per game)  (#22 in D3)
CHANGE IN SID
2016-17 ... Record: 6-19 ... Attendance: 2,810 (216 per game) (Not Ranked)

newCCIWfan,

For something that's "absolutely meaningless," you seem to have spent an inordinate amount of time researching the subject.  ::)  ;)


Touché!!

I suppose it is useful to provide a 5 minute escape from work in order to research something that doesn't make much of a difference!

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

As sac mentioned, I am pretty confident in saying that Hope actually has a "turnstile" attendance number. Thus, that number is pretty rock solid with maybe some added individuals who didn't get picked up by the turnstile. So when it comes to Hope's numbers, I actually think they are pretty accurate - they aren't doing anything to drive their numbers up. I also know their SID pretty well and he isn't the kind of guy to "cook the books" just to keep Hope in the top spot.

As for the idea that attendance numbers ending in 0 and 5 are probably guesses, I don't agree. I see the point, but since I entered college in 1995 (sheesh) I have never seen an SID put their guesstimate in as a 0 or 5 number. It is almost like SIDs just know not to do that or whatnot. I kid you not. Odder numbers seem more interesting.

Personally if attendance numbers are going to be published like they are by the NCAA, it would be nice if departments gave accurate numbers to attendance. That said, not sure telling colleges to actually count every single person walking into a gym, especially if attendance numbers are low anyway, is the best way to use resources - or direct resources to be used. So, numbers aren't perfect for a vast majority of DIII, but the top teams are probably a good idea of where they stand.

And having post-season numbers not count seems a bit extreme. First off, do we really think that those ranked lower would suddenly move higher if they hosted? Most if not all of the top schools have post-season games, so it isn't making that big a difference. Also, conference tournaments are technically regular season games.  ;)
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Flying Dutch Fan

I get the discussion of the meaningless attendance numbers in reference to their validity or accuracy, but (my 2 cents) I believe that most of them are at least directionally accurate.  No doubt the ticketing methods (if any) contribute to this, and if they are estimates, then I guess you could argue the smaller numbers may be more accurate.  Rivier averaged 51 people per game - pretty easy to assess that level of attendance with an educated guess.

The attendance impact on the players and recruiting is also worth noting IMHO.  Recruit sees a large crowd, players get to play in that kind of atmosphere - has to have an impact.  Sure, I'm looking at this through my orange and blue Hope glasses, but it is an advantage.  Granted that Hope has probably close to 1000 season ticket holders and the majority of the crowd at any game is from the community - you quickly realize how blessed Hope's programs are (both men and women).

Quick look at the stats and I see 94 schools out of 418 (419 if you include the reclassifying McMurry) whose total attendance for the year was less than Hope's average. 
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AndOne

#46159
Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 10, 2017, 12:01:08 AM
Quote from: lmitzel on August 09, 2017, 02:54:13 PM
Thinking about it, I went to look at North Central's attendance numbers, and they're all rounded to the nearest 25. For a lot of programs, I get it; the SID's have a lot on their plates as it is (and far be it from me to criticize my own school's attendance policy). But going back to this past season, NCC averaged 466 people a night. Sounds about right, having worked all but one of the home games last year (incidentally, the least attended one, but whatever.) But looking game by game I do question the numbers.


  • 12/3 vs IWU: 450
  • 1/4 vs Augie: 1000
  • 1/7 vs NPU: 425

I'm sure the Augie number is at least close to right; Augie fans always travel well. But so do Titan fans. I remember the stands being packed for both games, and to say that there were less than half the number who attended the IWU game as the Augie game is an absurd notion, especially when you consider the IWU game was on a Saturday and the Augie game was on a Wednesday. Similar thing with the North Park game a few days after the Augie game. I wouldn't be surprised if it got less than the Augie game, but not less than half, especially on a Saturday.


The IWU game was in December, too, though. First year with conference games in December, and I bet that has an impact as well.

More so than the fact that last year was the first with conference games in December, lower than usual or expected attendance at North Central games in December most often has to do with the fact that NCC's Holiday break runs from Thanksgiving until the first Monday in January. During this time the only students on campus are those non locals taking "D" Term classes which only run for, I believe, four of the six weeks. NCC home games during the break are almost always poorly attended. Home games on 12/7 and 12/17 were reportedly attended by only 150 and 125 respectively.

AndOne

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on August 10, 2017, 10:35:53 AM

As for the idea that attendance numbers ending in 0 and 5 are probably guesses, I don't agree. I see the point, but since I entered college in 1995 (sheesh) I have never seen an SID put their guesstimate in as a 0 or 5 number. It is almost like SIDs just know not to do that or whatnot. I kid you not. Odder numbers seem more interesting.

Dave,

When attendance figures are always reported only in multiples of 25, and always end in a 5 or a 0, you know they are guesses. This does not happen every game. And when you attend just about every game and know exactly how many seats there are in the arena, you have a pretty good idea of the actual attendance based on how full the stands are. When capacity is 2,478 and the stands are 40% full, the attendance is not 425.  ;)

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: AndOne on August 10, 2017, 02:55:43 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on August 10, 2017, 10:35:53 AM

As for the idea that attendance numbers ending in 0 and 5 are probably guesses, I don't agree. I see the point, but since I entered college in 1995 (sheesh) I have never seen an SID put their guesstimate in as a 0 or 5 number. It is almost like SIDs just know not to do that or whatnot. I kid you not. Odder numbers seem more interesting.

Dave,

When attendance figures are always reported only in multiples of 25, and always end in a 5 or a 0, you know they are guesses. This does not happen every game. And when you attend just about every game and know exactly how many seats there are in the arena, you have a pretty good idea of the actual attendance based on how full the stands are. When capacity is 2,478 and the stands are 40% full, the attendance is not 425.  ;)

I understand what you are saying, I just feel you are making some very grand assumptions or extrapolating an isolated thing you have seen and made it something across the board. A quick look through the men's attendance numbers didn't reveal that kind of pattern. I am just trying to say that what you may see in an isolated situation is not the norm.
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AndOne

#46162
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on August 10, 2017, 04:07:24 PM
Quote from: AndOne on August 10, 2017, 02:55:43 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on August 10, 2017, 10:35:53 AM

As for the idea that attendance numbers ending in 0 and 5 are probably guesses, I don't agree. I see the point, but since I entered college in 1995 (sheesh) I have never seen an SID put their guesstimate in as a 0 or 5 number. It is almost like SIDs just know not to do that or whatnot. I kid you not. Odder numbers seem more interesting.

Dave,

When attendance figures are always reported only in multiples of 25, and always end in a 5 or a 0, you know they are guesses. This does not happen every game. And when you attend just about every game and know exactly how many seats there are in the arena, you have a pretty good idea of the actual attendance based on how full the stands are. When capacity is 2,478 and the stands are 40% full, the attendance is not 425.  ;)

I understand what you are saying, I just feel you are making some very grand assumptions or extrapolating an isolated thing you have seen and made it something across the board. A quick look through the men's attendance numbers didn't reveal that kind of pattern. I am just trying to say that what you may see in an isolated situation is not the norm.

Dave,

The situation is as far from isolated as we are from the moon. The fact that attendance is always reported in multiples of 25 is evidenced by the below figures which verify exactly what I have said. In opposition to your assertion, a quick look through the attendance figures reveals a definite pattern. Attendance for EVERY home game game is a multiple of 25, and ends either in a
5 or a 0.
This is just not possible.

11/21/16     at Benedictine (IL)               W      72-69     533
   11/23/16        ALMA                           W      78-59     350
   11/25/16        AURORA                         W      88-78     300
   11/29/16        UW-PLATTEVILLE                   L    40-57     225
  *12/3/16         ILLINOIS WESLEYAN              W      84-75     425
  *12/07/16        CARTHAGE                         L    75-85     150
  *12/10/16     at MILLIKIN                       W      73-67     375
   12/13/16     at Albion                         W      68-57      94
   12/17/16        ROBERT MORRIS-CHICAG             L    70-77     125
   12/20/16     vs Wartburg-HAWAII                     W  O2  94-91      65
   12/21/16     vs Wheaton (Mass.)-HAWAII            W      89-77      57
   12/29/16     at UW-Stevens Point                 L    63-65    2222
  *01/04/17        AUGUSTANA                        L    71-82    1000
  *1/7/16          NORTH PARK                       L    73-76     450
  *1-11-17      at Carroll University               L    65-72     328
  *1/18/17      at Wheaton (IL)                   W  O2  86-82     372
  *1/21/17      at Elmhurst                         L    78-87     719
  *1/25/17         MILLIKIN                       W      63-44     250
  *01/28/17        WHEATON (IL)                   W      69-55    1300
  *02/01/17        CARROLL UNIVERSITY             W      82-72     375
  *2/4/17       at North Park                     W      73-67     991
  *02/08/17     at Augustana                        LOT  66-72     734
  *02/11/17        ELMHURST                       W      84-60     650

The prosecution rests.  ;)




Mr. Ypsi

AndOne, I think he meant NCC was an isolated case, not that you were wrong about NCC's figures.

I have noticed that at a few other schools as well, but I think MOST schools present at least well-intentioned data.

AndOne

#46164
If that's what Dave meant, I missed the signal and apologize.

Admittedly, I don't often criticize things NCC. But, over the years I've been perplexed several times by both always having the reported attendance figure ending in a 5 or 0, and at some reported totals with didn't seem to coincide very closely with the percentage of the stands that were filled vs the Hangar's 2,478 seats. 🤔

If anything, I think NCC figures are more often under estimated/reported as opposed to some schools which often seem to report inflated numbers.

AndOne

On another subject............

It's going to be interesting to see which players, if any, who were expected to return to the various conference teams, don't. Especially, those who were expected to be at least somewhat meaningful contributors to their respective squads.


AndOne

Did you know? (per the NCAA)

In 2015-2016 there were 546,428 players on high school basketball teams across the country.

Only 3.4% went on to play NCAA basketball in 2016-2017.

1.0% in Division I
1.0% in Division II
1.4% in Division III

hopefan

Quote from: AndOne on August 12, 2017, 04:56:23 PM
Did you know? (per the NCAA)

In 2015-2016 there were 546,428 players on high school basketball teams across the country.

Only 3.4% went on to play NCAA basketball in 2016-2017.

1.0% in Division I
1.0% in Division II
1.4% in Division III

Andone.. questions regarding these numbers

I wonder if that is Seniors on teams, or total count on teams, for the number of players on teams...

for the number that played in college the next year, I wonder if it means on the varsity level only, or if it means also on a school's formal JV roster.  I would think those players could also be considered... then, what about the graduating srs. who played their first year, but not NCAA... ie JC, NAIA USCAA  ACCA, NCCAA  etc.   What I'm getting at is using certain sets of numbers could be putting the % of kids who go on to play much lower than it might really be....
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AndOne

My understanding is:
1. The 546,428 figure for HS players is all players, not just seniors.
2. All (NCAA) college players are included, both varsity and JV.
3. If roughly 25% of the HS players are seniors, thats 136,607.
4. Yes, I think we're just talking NCAA as far as the 3.4%.
5. So, 3.4% of HS players go on to play NCAA basketball. But,
6. The total percentage of kids playing in HS that go on to play any level of college basketball is prob a little higher than 3.4%