Pool C -- 2013

Started by Ralph Turner, October 18, 2013, 10:39:56 PM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.
I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethels wins are all in-region.  That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings.  There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

AO

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:42:25 PM
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.
I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethels wins are all in-region.  That group of people know who is on their list currently- they don't have to guess at what's going on on other regions' rankings.  There's not a good criteria-based excuse for Bethel to be behind Whitewater if that's the top ten that they made this week.
I meant to say regionally ranked wins, not just regional wins.

This means that next week Bethel will move ahead of Whitewater in the secret regional rankings since the RAC will then count St. Thomas as their 4th regionally ranked win.  However, once the national committee gets to decide who is the #1 seed, etc. Bethel might only have 3 regionally ranked wins if the Johnnies fall out of the secret rankings.

So, we know exactly what data the regional committee is using to create the secret regional rankings, but the data regarding regionally ranked wins the national committee uses to seed and select is secret.

d-train

#227
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:47:34 PM
This means that next week Bethel will move ahead of Whitewater in the secret regional rankings...

So, we know exactly what data the regional committee is using...

You're really that sure?  I mean maybe you're right, but have you ever heard of confirmation bias?

bleedpurple

#228
Looking at the top of possible brackets (#1 seeds), here is a comparison of the final "public" regional rankings to the actual brackets themselves:

2012
Final Public Rankings: Hobart, Mount, UMHB, Linfield
Actual Top Seeds: Mount, UMHB, LInfield, St. Thomas

Note: Tommies were ranked 3rd in west in final "public" ranking, leaped Oshkosh (2nd) with a win over #5 C-M on final week.  No East #1

2011
Final Public Rankings: Del Val, Mount, UMHB, UWW
Actual Top Seeds: Del Val, Mount, UMHB, UWW

2010
Final Public Rankings: Del Val, Mount, Wesley, St. Thomas
Actual Top Seeds Mount, Wesley, St. Thomas, North Central

Note: North Central was #2 in the North behind Mount. Replaced Del Val as a 1. No East #1

2009
Final Public Rankings: Del Val, Mount, Wesley, UW-W
Actual Top Seeds: Mount, Wesley, UW-W, St. Johns

Note: St. John's was #2 in the West. Replaced Del Val as a 1. No East #1


Since 2009, the only #1 regionally ranked teams listed in the final "public" rankings to have been replaced as #1 seeds in the actual brackets have been from the East. Only the 2012 Hobart team was undefeated and still replaced.


K-Mack

Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.
I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethel hasn't actually played St. John's yet.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

AO

Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:10:36 PM
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.
I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethel hasn't actually played St. John's yet.
Then it's going to be really weird next week when the regional committee sees that Bethel moved from 2 to 4 regionally ranked wins despite the fact that St. John's will likely fall out of the rankings.

MasterJedi

Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 03:14:05 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:10:36 PM
Quote from: AO on November 13, 2013, 02:38:58 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 02:29:42 PM
RRs are out.  STT, Wartburg, C-M, and SJU are 7-10 in the West.  Bethel is #2.  If those four teams are all ranked, Bethel can't be #2.  Just can't.  Total whiff by the West RAC.  The criteria have to matter, especially when the criteria are that overwhelming. 

Alright...projections coming shortly.
I think this proves my theory correct.  The regional committees don't readjust themselves after calculating the regional wins from the previous week's rankings.  They only considered Bethel to have 3 regionally ranked wins this week.

Bethel hasn't actually played St. John's yet.
Then it's going to be really weird next week when the regional committee sees that Bethel moved from 2 to 4 regionally ranked wins despite St. John's falling out of the rankings.

St Johns wouldn't be ranked then.

K-Mack

I'm pretty thrilled that I nailed a bunch of observations in the primer -- that Brockport was the 10th East team, that nobody new would move in in the North, that Millsaps would leap Wesley (by saying that an unbeaten can't go before a two-loss) and that all four of Bethel's opponents would be ranked in the West.

No major surprises in there for me.

However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

AO

Quote from: MasterJedi on November 13, 2013, 03:15:18 PM
St Johns wouldn't be ranked then.
Have you been following along at all?  The regional committee counts it as a regionally ranked win as they don't anticipate their own regional rankings.

AO

#234
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:16:02 PM
However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.
2013:
Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the
rankings at the time of selection. Conference
postseason contests are included

2012:
In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

Opponents are considered ranked once they appear one time in sport's official rankings.

Conference postseason contests are included.

Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selections

bleedpurple

Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:16:02 PM
I'm pretty thrilled that I nailed a bunch of observations in the primer -- that Brockport was the 10th East team, that nobody new would move in in the North, that Millsaps would leap Wesley (by saying that an unbeaten can't go before a two-loss) and that all four of Bethel's opponents would be ranked in the West.

No major surprises in there for me.

However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.

Definitely a great job! +k

wally_wabash

#236
While we wait for RRs today, we can chew on what we know for a bit.  I'll add on to this post after the RRs are released and I go through my at-large picks.  But for now, Pool A:

   League   
  Team
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   North Central   
   ECFC   
   Gallaudet   
   E8   
   Itahca   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Wartburg   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MAC   
   Lebanon Valley   
   MIAC   
   Bethel   
   MWC   
   St. Norbert   
   MIAA   
   Albion   
   NACC   
   Concordia (Wis.)   
   NCAC   
   Wittenberg   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Hampden-Sydney   
   PAC   
   Washington & Jefferson   
   SCIAC   
   Redlands   
   UMAC   
   St. Scholastica   
   USAC   
   Maryville   
   WIAC   
   UW-Whitewater   

Last week we had zero teams qualified.  This week we have 14.  Ten more coming on Saturday.  In the table if you are bolded, you are a conference champion and are qualified for the tournament.  If you are italicized, you're new to the table this week.  Notables here:
- Ithaca's win over Salisbury captures the E8 for the Bombers and sets up a huge Pool C game between SJF and Alfred on Saturday.
- St. Norbert benefits from IC's loss and is in the driver's seat for the MWC despite not having to play one another.  Silly. 
- Wittenberg's win at Wabash knocks Wabash into Pool C.  Not a big wave as the NCAC runner up was going to be in the mix here either way. 

The good news for Pool C hopefuls is that of the ten unsettled AQ leagues, none can produce a surprise Pool C team (OAC will produce an at-large team, but we've been counting on that)....we won't see bubbles pop because of surprises in Week 11. 

Pool B:

As we talked about last week, it was weird that Millsaps was behind Wesley and that was fixed.  So the Pool B board looks like this:

Millsaps (9-0 overall, 8-0 D3, 0.507 SOS, 0-0 vs RRO)
Wesley (7-2 overall, 4-2 D3, 0.678 SOS, 0-2 vs. RRO)
Framingham State (8-1 overall, 8-1 D3, 0.574 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

Texas Lutheran (7-1 overall, 7-1 D3, 0.424 SOS, 0-0 vs RRO)

So Millsaps, Wesley and Framingham are the three.  Whether you prefer to take Framingham before Wesley or Wesley before Framingham, you'll end up in the same place.  Washington is lingering around down there just below TLU, but being the fourth ranked B team in the same region is just a killer for WashU's very slim chances.  Doesn't get better for the Bears when we head on over to the C Pool.  Grab your towel...here we go. 

Pool C:

Quickly to take a look at the top of the C board from each region:
North: JCU, IWU, Wabash (taken as is...and despite IWU's second RRO win, I'm not sure they'll get over the JCU/UMU loser so we'll keep this as it is)
South: Thomas More, Texas Lutheran, WashU (taken as is)
East: Alfred, SJF, Brockport (which I'll take as Alfred/SJF winner, Brockport)
West: UW-O, UW-P, PLU, St. Thomas, C-M, SJU (I'm treating UW-O and UW-P as the same team as I did with SJF/Alfred because they play this week)

Let's pick.  We know how it goes...top team from each region is on the board, we assess per the criteria and select.  Here we go.  Round 1:
John Carroll (9-0, 0.490 SOS, 1-0 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (8-1, 0.470 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Alfred/SJF (7-2, 0.539/0.560 SOS, 1-1/1-1 vs RRO)
UW-Oshkosh/Platteville (8-1, 0.443/0.455 SOS, 0-1/0-1 vs RRO)

I'm gong to peel John Carroll off here first.  I think the SOS factor is the big player here.  Both JCU and the UWs will have 1 regional loss vs. the #1 ranked team in their region and a regional win against their league's third place team.  So that's all more or less a wash.  The gap in SOS I think makes you lean toward the Streaks. 

Round 2:
Illinois Wesleyan (8-1, 0.502 SOS, 2-1 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (8-1, 0.470 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Alfred/SJF (7-2, 0.539/0.560 SOS, 1-1/1-1 vs RRO)
UW-Oshkosh/Platteville (8-1, 0.443/0.455 SOS, 0-1/0-1 vs RRO)

Illinois Wesleyan is actually an easier pick here than John carroll in the round before.  Better SOS (still a big gap to the UWs) and a bonus RRO thanks to Hope's placement in the North.  That goes away if Albion beats Hope on Saturday. 

Round 3:
Wabash (8-1, 0..513 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (8-1, 0.470 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Alfred/SJF (7-2, 0.539/0.560 SOS, 1-1/1-1 vs RRO)
UW-Oshkosh/Platteville (8-1, 0.443/0.455 SOS, 0-1/0-1 vs RRO)

Now we get to the UWs.  The winner of Oshkosh/Platteville is going in here (or before).  Now we've got a quality win to help offset some of that SOS trouble.  The other 1-loss teams here don't have a quality win and Alfred/SJF are carrying a second loss. 

Round 4:
Wabash (8-1, 0..513 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (8-1, 0.470 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Alfred/SJF (7-2, 0.539/0.560 SOS, 1-1/1-1 vs RRO)
Pacific Lutheran (8-1, 0.553 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

I think the choice here comes down to PLU or Wabash, but now we also have to start paying close attention to Alfred/SJF.  The folks on the East RAC are freaking brilliant.  Last year they made a last minute switcheroo to have a better profile on the board at the end (Bridgewater State).  This year they've slipped Brockport into the bottom of their rankings which gives Alfred an RRO win that wasn't there before.  We'll never ever know for sure, but I've got a dollar that says the loser of Alfred/SJF stays ranked and gives the winner a 2-1 record vs. RROs.  Because why not?   I digress.  I'm taking PLU here because of their lofty SOS and (for the moment) I don't think the RRO win for Alfred/SJF offsets the extra loss.  PLU could really, really, really benefit from Redlands getting ranked after Saturday (maybe replacing SJU at the bottom of the West's rankings). 

Round 5:
Wabash (8-1, 0..513 SOS, 0-1 vs. RRO)
Thomas More (8-1, 0.470 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Alfred/SJF (7-2, 0.539/0.560 SOS, 1-1/1-1 vs RRO)
St. Thomas (7-2, 0.537 SOS, 1-2 vs RRO)

And here we go.  Do you favor win percentage?  Do you like SOS (although these teams don't have huge SOS separations...save SJF)?  I'm going to select Wabash here because it makes me feel good, but I'm going to be honest- you can pick any one of these teams you want and be justified doing so. 

I will offer this caveat and it's one that has been mentioned briefly but not explored in detail.  If SJF wins on Saturday, SJF will be lingering around on the board from the get go.  Which means they are getting discussed for at least two more selections than Wabash/St.Thomas.  Whether that discussion accumulates any selection capital as teams are plucked off the board and new teams arrive, who knows.  Thomas More is also on the board from the start, but Thomas More-in addition to underwhelming SOS and RRO results- has a hideous common opponent problem with SJF (W&J....and this is the same scenario that got CWRU passed over in 2011) so the Saints are doomed if they are in direct competition with SJF.  So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins.  That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates. 

So anyway, my Pool C's are:
John Carroll
IWU
UW-Oskhosh/Platteville winner
Pacific Lutheran
Wabash


This is in no way groundbreaking as this is what we've kind of been pointing toward since Saturday evening and was pretty strongly alluded to (if not said outright) in the ATN piece that went up today. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

K-Mack

Quote from: bleedpurple on November 13, 2013, 03:31:35 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 13, 2013, 03:16:02 PM
I'm pretty thrilled that I nailed a bunch of observations in the primer -- that Brockport was the 10th East team, that nobody new would move in in the North, that Millsaps would leap Wesley (by saying that an unbeaten can't go before a two-loss) and that all four of Bethel's opponents would be ranked in the West.

No major surprises in there for me.

However, I need to be more about once-ranked, always ranked. Pat has said that's not in the handbook this year, but I wonder if it also specifically says that's not how it is. It was definitely in effect last year. I will have to take a closer look.

Definitely a great job! +k

Thanks. I didn't mean it to pat myself on the back so much as when going through all the numbers, obsessively, down to minute details, I'm always afraid I'll miss something obvious.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

AO

#238
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 13, 2013, 03:54:46 PM
So if you're looking at SJF/Wabash/St. Thomas for that last spot, SJF has been lingering for a while, they have a great SOS, and (especially if the East RAC doesn't drop Alfred all the way out which they should do but probably won't) 2 RRO wins.  That is a damn compelling at-large case and might be the only one of the 2-loss teams that could break through the 1-loss candidates. 
SJF/Alfred could go from 2 RR wins to O with a little help from Waynesburg/Morrisville State and if the East RAC drops the loser out (more likely if Alfred loses).

K-Mack

I would probably take IWU before John Carroll and PLU before the UW-O/P loser, but it gets us to the same place in the end. All four of those teams seem pretty solid, and the fifth spot is the only one where any doubt might creep in.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.