The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.

Started by EttaFan1, April 19, 2013, 10:30:49 AM

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ADL70

Quote from: forheavendial4999 on May 02, 2013, 09:40:49 PM
Quote from: EttaFan1 on May 02, 2013, 09:24:03 PM
2013 regional rankings part 2 (last week I n parenthesis)

1. Marietta (1)
2.  Manchester (2)
3. Wooster (4)
4.  La Roche (3)
5.  Case (5)
6.  W&J (NR)
7.  Hope (7)
8.  John Carroll (9)
9.  Thomas More (6)

Dropped out Adrian.

Did W&J beat anyone special in the intervening period?

Beat TMC and LaRoche and split with CWRU.
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forheavendial4999

Quote from: ADL70 on May 02, 2013, 11:14:53 PM
Quote from: forheavendial4999 on May 02, 2013, 09:40:49 PM
Quote from: EttaFan1 on May 02, 2013, 09:24:03 PM
2013 regional rankings part 2 (last week I n parenthesis)

1. Marietta (1)
2.  Manchester (2)
3. Wooster (4)
4.  La Roche (3)
5.  Case (5)
6.  W&J (NR)
7.  Hope (7)
8.  John Carroll (9)
9.  Thomas More (6)

Dropped out Adrian.

Did W&J beat anyone special in the intervening period?

Beat TMC and LaRoche and split with CWRU.

Works for me. Thanks.

EttaFan1

Schedule change for Marietta will see them not playing Frostburg on Sunday, but rather traveling to LaRoche for a 3PM game.  Another big "in region" matchup for both schools.

EttaFan1

#63
On Monday, Marietta's NCAA SOS rank was 8th. After playing Wilmington, it dropped to 49th, below Wooster who is 24th and case at 35th . It should get a boost tomorrow after playing case.

Owp:  .563
Oowp:  .5129
NCAA SOS: .549

Ouch.

forheavendial4999

Case Western's season basically came down to today, and they certainly approached the game like it. They have to be a Pool C if not Pool B team. Relentless today.

jos s

at this point, the conversation needs to shift from, " will Case be selected to compete in the Mid East regional"    to how could they not be selected.    and also, at this point could they be seeded in the top 3 ?

EttaFan1

So it is now conference tourney time, and this is when it comes down to the wire.  So hre is where we are in the region and I will offer my input on Joe's comments as well.

MIAA

#1 Hope vs. #4 Calvin
#2 Adrian vs. #3 Trine

Legitimate Pool C teams:  IMO, none.  This is a one bid league. 
Bubble Teams:  Regionally ranked Hope (#7) is .667 in region and has the 170th rated NCAA SOS mark.  Adrian is not currently ranked and has a region win pct of .722 and has an SOS rank of 238th.  Neither is strong enough in my opinion to get a pool C birth.

Heartland Conference

#1 Manchester vs. #4 Defiance
#2 Anderson vs. #3 Franklin

Legitimate Pool C Teams:  Manchester.  They are currently the #2 ranked team in the region.  They have an .839 in region win pct, but their SOS is really poor ranked 313th.
Bubble Teams:  None

PrAC

#1 W&J vs. #4 St. Vincent
#2 Thiel vs. #3 Thomas More

Legitimate Pool C Teams:  Likely None
Bubble teams:  W&J (#6 in region last week) has an in region win pct of .735 which is strong, a key win over Marietta College, but their SOS is rated at 143.  I think this puts them at the borderline.  Thomas More (#9) has an in region win pct of .686 and an SOS rank of 244.  It would be unlikely they make it in as a Pool C team.

AMCC

#1 PSU - Beherend vs. #5 Pitt - Greensburg
#2 La Roche vs. #3 Mt. Aloysius

Legitimate Pool C Teams: none
Bubble teams: La Roche (#4 in region last week).  The Redhawks currently have an in region win pct of .692 and have played the 208th rated schedule.  Beherend has an in region win pct of .714 and has played the 305th rated schedule.  Neither seems likely.

NCAC

(Not official, not on the NCAC website yet. Will update this later when known for certain)
Denison vs. Allegheny
Wooster vs. Oberlin

Legitiamte Pool C:  Wooster.  The scots have a .767 in region win pct, and an SOS rank of 35th.  It would be very hard to leave the scots out of the tournament.
Bubble teams:  Dension has an in region win pct of .632 and an NCAA SOS rank of 145.  They are a long shot.  Allegheny has an in region win pct of .649 and an NCAA SOS rank of 79th.  Both are long shots, IMO.

OAC

#1 Marietta vs. #4 Otterbein
#2 John Carroll vs. #3 Mount Union

Legitimate Pool C teams:  Marietta #1 in region.  a .781 In region win pct and an NCAA sos rank of 26th.  This is enough to get in.  And with a win or two in the tournament may be enough to be the top seed.
Bubble teams:  None.  JCU's numbers wouldn't warrant consideration.  .613 in region win pct and an NCAA sos rank of 122. 

Case Western Reserve

It is only my opinion, but I feel Case should be in the tournament either as a pool b team or a pool c.  They have an in region win pct of .694 and an NCAA SOS rank of 21 which is the most difficult schedule of any mideast region team.  I felt prior to their twinbill with Marietta they had to win two against the Pioneers to give themselves the best possible chance of a pool b or c bid.  They did just that.  They should  be in the tournament.  A for a top three seed?  the .694 win pct compared to those over .700 for Marietta and Wooster who also play difficult schedules and Manchester's .800+ Win pct (though against poor competition) cold push them to the #4 seed.  They are one of the better teams I've seen this year.

With that said, a lot is going to depend on the results of conference tournaments.  Kean lost their conference tournament in the Mid-Atlantic region.  They are probably going to take a pool C bid (#1 in region last week, .829 win pct, #15 ranked SOS).  The more this happens, the tighter things get for all Pool C teams.   

The bottom line: there are no guarantees if you don't get a pool A bid.  Somebody deserving will get left at home. 

After the week, here is how I see the region rankings.

1.  Marietta
2.  Manchester
3.  Wooster
4.  Case Western Reserve

Really, you could mix and match the order of these about any way you want to.

5.  La Roche
6. W&J
7.  Hope
8. JCU
9.  Thomas More or Adrain


jos s

your posts are always outstanding, with incredible stats and info, i do enjoy reading them.

that said, with all that is listed above, why would manchester deserve to stay at #2 playing such a weak sced ?   and after beating the pioneers both games...and at home...  could case not jump over them ?   Just a question for debate....  what i or other Case fans think has no bearing on anything.  thanks

EttaFan1

Believe me, I think Case has a legitimate argument to be a 3 seed.  In fact if Marietta is the 1, I hope they are! 

I have my eye on two things:  Regional rankings and in region win Pct.   


First the in region win pct. info...

Marietta .781 (25-7)   NCAA SOS: .560.  NCAA SOS rank:  26
      Best Case Scenario (3-0 in OAC Tournament)  win pct .800  (this clinches the top seed in the region, IMO)
      Worst Casd Scenario (0-2 in OAC Tournament) win pct. .735

Wooster .767 (23-7)  NCAA SOS:  .555, NCAA SOS rank:  35
      Best Case Scenario (3-0 in NCAC Tourn.) win pct .788
      Worst Case Scenario(0-2 in NCAC Tourn.) win pct. .719

Manchester .839 (26-5)  NCAA SOS: .467, NCAA SOS rank:  303
      Best Case Scenario (3-0 in HCAC tourn.) win pct. .853
      Worst Case Scenario (0-2 in HCAC tourn.) Win Pct. .788

Case .694 (25-11) NCAA SOS: .565, NCAA SOS rank: 21
       Season is complete.  No changes.

Anyone an make a case about Manchester's poor SOS numbers, and I think that will weigh heavily in the discussions, but at the end of the day, they dominated their in region competition.  Subjectively speaking, their SOS numbers were also hamstrung to some extent by a lackluster conference, which I think will be a part of the discussion as well (this could be good or bad, IMO).

Then we come to regional rankings thus far. 

Right now, the committee ranking the region has not penalized Manchester's poor SOS numbers.  They have been second in BOTH rankings thus far.  And while Case has moved higher they may not be able to overcome previously formed opinions by the group who issues those rankings.  It will be interesting to see what the results show on Thursday afternoon when the third set of numbers is released.  If Case jumps to #3, then I would guess they have a chance to be the #3 seed in the regional (considering they earn a pool B or C bid--which is still not known yet). 

My opinion, the best case scenario for the Spartans is a #3 seed, but they will have to have some "help,"  help which in the end works against their pool c interests if they are indeed a pool C contender!.  The likely scenario (on the monday before the conference tournaments) for them is to be the #4 seed.  My opinion could change after the regional rankings are released on Thursday. 



jos s

As always Etta, an outstanding post full of facts info and stats ....props again.

So honored that Case has a chance to earn a playoff spot, congrats to Coach Englander, his staff, and the team another incredible season, and it is amazing how far this program has come in just a few years....wow

EttaFan1

Quote from: jos s on May 06, 2013, 12:08:01 PM
So honored that Case has a chance to earn a playoff spot, congrats to Coach Englander, his staff, and the team another incredible season, and it is amazing how far this program has come in just a few years....wow

I saw Case in the regional in the 2011 season.  They were slow, and not  fundamentally sound (missed cut off men, threw behind runners at bad times, etc.)  The team I saw on Saturday was vastly improved over that club.  They were easily the best opponent I've seen in person this season (a list which includes Otterbein, BW, some other OAC bottom feeders, Huntingdon, Wooster, Denison, and Montclair State).  Serious arms in the outfield.  Good hitters.  The Shortstop was outstanding.  Their catcher was also very good defensively. Very impressed with Case. 

forheavendial4999

#71
If Manchester wins out, they're the 2 or 3 seed IMO. If they do NOT...I am not sure they get in at all. That would be a really tough call for the committee I think.

Their record against regionally ranked teams is 0-0. They have played none.

If Marietta is Pool A, they're the #1 seed, as unfair as that might seem to Case fans. If Marietta needs a Pool C, Case Western could end up being the #1 seed. Case is 8-3 against in -region regionally ranked...6-3 even if you take out Washington St. Louis -- that's the best record in the region. W&J is 5-3 and Marietta is 5-5.

Ultimately, seeding doesn't matter at all. Marietta won the series in 2006 from the 3 seed in the regional. I don't really think there are any dominant teams in the region this year. The winner will play clean, throw strikes, and hit the ball. I'm not sure there's an all-american pitcher in the whole region unless Murphy from Manchester makes it as a reliever.

Btw, I think W&J has a chance as a Pool C. Low-ish SOS but several regionally ranked wins, the most of any of the low SOS teams that would be realistic options.

EttaFan1

#72
Records vs. Regionally Ranked opponents.

These include games against the ranked mid-east region opponents (which would also include Adrian, once ranked always ranked). Plus games against regionally ranked opponents from other regions that are considered "in region" matchups.  ie Case vs. Washington U, Marietta vs. Huntingdon, and La Roche vs. Cortland State. 

1. Marietta 6-5 (Wooster, La Roche, Case, W&J, JCU, and Huntingdon)
2. Manchster 0-0
3. Wooster 2-3 (Marietta, Case, JCU)
4. La Roche 0-4 (Marietta, W&J, Cortland St.)
5. Case Western 8-3 (Marietta, Washington U, Wooster, JCU, W&J)
6. W&J 4-3  (Marietta, La Roche, CWRU)
7. Hope 3-1 (Adrian)
8. John Carroll 2-4 (Marietta, Wooster, and Case)
9. Thomas More 2-2 (W&J, Adrian)

This is a factor as forheavendial4999 indicated an will be considere.  However I see some issues.  First it is a "luck of the draw" to some extent.  You don't know, in advance, who is going to be in the regional rankings.  Secondly in the case of someone like Hope, their only ranked opponent was Adrian, and that's because they had to play.   

Credit where it is deserved:  Case for having success against the ranked regional opponents and for being blessed with having 11 such contests.  Marietta as well, they have 11 games to their credit against regionally ranked opponents, and have a winning record.  Marietta could play another one to two games against JCU in the OAC tournament helping to improve their resume. 

This further solidifies Case's resume for a birth either as a Pool B or Pool C Candidate.

forheavendial4999

Well, one of us has some numbers wrong on the games against regionally ranked, but that's the basic idea.

Wooster didn't beat Marietta, did they?

Bishopleftiesdad

#74
Yup Wooster lost to Marietta early in the season 15-10.
http://www.woosterathletics.com/sports/bsb/2012-13/files/woob310.htm

They split with Case and beat JCU